If you can say with a straight face that Harper’s presence in the lineup is the difference maker, in 2012, for this team then I’d give credence to your arguments.

However, you failed to address the two main points of my post, neither of which are very arguable. Statistically speaking a few weeks of Harper in 2012 is not going to be worth a full season of him at age 25. Its simple. And, there’s a reason the team kept Strasburg down in the minors until mid June so he could strike out 14 major league hitters in his debut; it wasn’t because they really wanted to hold him down; its because that was the prudent team management thing to do.

I don’t know ‘bout no ancient tongues, but I can occasionally spot glaring internal inconsistencies: In peric’s numbered paragraph 1, Harper is “a left-handed impact hitter in the offing”, and the Nats need him to bring him up right away to fill their left-handed power vacuum. In numbered paragraph 2, however, “Harper won’t set the world on fire as he learns to adjust to major league hitting” (which I interpret to mean “he won’t be that great”). These two positions are mutually exclusive—unless the qualifier “in the offing” means “he won’t set the world on fire” in the ancient tongue.

I basically agree with peric’s paragraph 2: Davey thinks Davey’s a genius, and Harper isn’t going to be great player right out of the gate. I suspect Todd also agrees with those points, as he just pointed out how Harper was only so-so against AA pitchers last year, and has yet to face AAA staffs.

But peric’s numbered paragraph 1 is just wrong. First, unless I’m mistaken, I think Espinosa historically hits better left-handed than right, and that he was off last year because of a wrist injury. Second, a healthy LaRoche is a perfectly serviceable left-handed bat, and he should be an improvement over any lefties from last season’s lineup. And third, I may be going out on a limb here, but unless Harper is better at 19 than Griffey and Mantle were at 20, then a healthy LaRoche would likely be more productive offensively than Harper anyway.

This sort of thinking is what I mean by Kool-Aid guzzling. Sure, Harper is a left-handed impact hitter in the offing—but it’s the “in the offing” part that needs to be emphasized. He absolutely needs to prove himself before they bring him up. Why? Quite simple: BECAUSE EVERYONE ELSE HAS TO. He doesn’t get to skip steps just because SI made him a teen coverboy.

Harper makes the team. Why? Quite simple.

1. Harper is a left-handed impact hitter in the offing. The Nats have not even one of those! NOT EVEN ONE! No LaRoche is average at best if you look at his batted run stats. And Espinosa may do better this year batting left-handed … but he is a natural right hander right?

2. Johnson likes to think he is the finishing school for top prospects. And he does it in the majors. Sure Harper won’t set the world on fire as he learns to adjust to major league pitching. But Johnson believes HE CAN accelerate that process where the managers and coaches in the minors CANNOT. Yes, he thinks he knows more baseball than anyone else in the organization and he may be right.

The only way Harper stays and develops in the minors is if someone like Corey Brown, Roger Bernadina, or Rick Ankiel hit like Morse did last spring. Want to bet on that happening? If it doesn’t Harper comes in late April at the LATEST. To compete the Nats need an impact left-handed bat in their lineup in the outfield. Or for Matt Skole to suddenly develop into a top 10 prospect leap into AA.

My irritation with this story line is related to a growing trend that I’ve seen in sportswriting; just publishing the narrative without doing your own research. You know, stories like “Braun got off on a technicality,” “Harper is immature,” and “Oakland’s stadium is the reason their pitchers have good stats.” On the last point, i’ve got a draft post pointing out that the park factors in Oakland for the past few years are nearly league average … check it out: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2011.shtml … multi-year park factors are 99 and 99 for hitters/pitchers. Where’s the massive park effect? Now compare that to San Diego and Colorado for two extremes … but the constant narrative about Oakland i’m starting to doubt.