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	<title>Comments on: Nats Franchise FA history; biggest, best, worst deals</title>
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	<description>&#34;... the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.”  -- Earl Weaver</description>
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		<title>By: Todd Boss</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6813</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Boss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2012 15:19:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6813</guid>
		<description>I used to agree with you here Wally, vehimently in fact, against switching Zimmerman to first.  But I&#039;ve changed my tune, especially after watching 2012, a season in which every time he made a stop I held my breath expecting the throw to be way off line.  Zimmerman&#039;s nearly to Knoblock territory in terms of mental issues just making a basic throw across the diamond.  Couple this with his diving around being the reason for his latest shoulder malady, going to my points about his fragileness, and I think a move to first is absolutely necessary.  If Rendon can hit MLB pitching (as all signs seem to indicate) and if Rendon provides plus defense at third (which EVERY scout seems to indicate) then Zimmerman needs to move.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I used to agree with you here Wally, vehimently in fact, against switching Zimmerman to first.  But I&#8217;ve changed my tune, especially after watching 2012, a season in which every time he made a stop I held my breath expecting the throw to be way off line.  Zimmerman&#8217;s nearly to Knoblock territory in terms of mental issues just making a basic throw across the diamond.  Couple this with his diving around being the reason for his latest shoulder malady, going to my points about his fragileness, and I think a move to first is absolutely necessary.  If Rendon can hit MLB pitching (as all signs seem to indicate) and if Rendon provides plus defense at third (which EVERY scout seems to indicate) then Zimmerman needs to move.</p>
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		<title>By: Todd Boss</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6812</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Boss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2012 15:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6812</guid>
		<description>Oh, yeah then absolutely his first contract played out well.  The FA value of WAR seems to be (according to several studies) around $4.5M per win above replacement.  2009-2012 in those four years he&#039;s generated a bWAR of 7.1+6.0+1.6+3.8 = 18.5 WAR or about $83M of value so far and the contract still has 2013 to go to.  So, yeah that&#039;s great value.  I&#039;ll agree I should have put this in the &quot;best&quot; categories.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, yeah then absolutely his first contract played out well.  The FA value of WAR seems to be (according to several studies) around $4.5M per win above replacement.  2009-2012 in those four years he&#8217;s generated a bWAR of 7.1+6.0+1.6+3.8 = 18.5 WAR or about $83M of value so far and the contract still has 2013 to go to.  So, yeah that&#8217;s great value.  I&#8217;ll agree I should have put this in the &#8220;best&#8221; categories.</p>
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		<title>By: PDowdy</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6811</link>
		<dc:creator>PDowdy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2012 14:51:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6811</guid>
		<description>I probably did overshoot on my projection.  We can split the difference on our projections and probably have a pretty realistic look at his numbers.  We are definitely in agreement because he is far more valuable at 3B.  You don&#039;t move a guy off a position after a bad season throwing when it was publicly known he had multiple coristone shots in his throwing shoulder.  He is a stud with the glove over there.  The only way I switch him is if he suffers another injury from diving around the infield or has another bad year throwing the ball.  Rendon won&#039;t be ready until the end of &#039;13 at the earliest (more likely &#039;14).  In my eyes Rendon impacts Espinosa more than Zimm.  I think this gives Espinosa one more season to get it completely together (cut down the strikeouts by about 40).  If he doesn&#039;t Rendon slots in nicely at 2B.  If Espinosa does put it together like Desmond did than the Nats are in a very inveiable position of having a stacked team with a highly coveted assett in the minors.

1B is easier to fill internally if need be.  We have Moore who is probably about as major league ready as he is going to get. I&#039;m not sure I buy into the section of people who think based on his small sample size last season that he is a 30/HR 100/RBI guy but I think he could be a 20-25 homer 85/RBI guy with a below average glove.  We also have Matt Skole who is probably permanently switching to 1B after his solid AFL campaign.  He looks much better at 1B defensively.

Next offseason&#039;s 1B class is as thin as this years so if you want to put up money at 1B it just looks like the best answer is to resign LaRoche even if it takes a 3rd season.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I probably did overshoot on my projection.  We can split the difference on our projections and probably have a pretty realistic look at his numbers.  We are definitely in agreement because he is far more valuable at 3B.  You don&#8217;t move a guy off a position after a bad season throwing when it was publicly known he had multiple coristone shots in his throwing shoulder.  He is a stud with the glove over there.  The only way I switch him is if he suffers another injury from diving around the infield or has another bad year throwing the ball.  Rendon won&#8217;t be ready until the end of &#8216;13 at the earliest (more likely &#8216;14).  In my eyes Rendon impacts Espinosa more than Zimm.  I think this gives Espinosa one more season to get it completely together (cut down the strikeouts by about 40).  If he doesn&#8217;t Rendon slots in nicely at 2B.  If Espinosa does put it together like Desmond did than the Nats are in a very inveiable position of having a stacked team with a highly coveted assett in the minors.</p>
<p>1B is easier to fill internally if need be.  We have Moore who is probably about as major league ready as he is going to get. I&#8217;m not sure I buy into the section of people who think based on his small sample size last season that he is a 30/HR 100/RBI guy but I think he could be a 20-25 homer 85/RBI guy with a below average glove.  We also have Matt Skole who is probably permanently switching to 1B after his solid AFL campaign.  He looks much better at 1B defensively.</p>
<p>Next offseason&#8217;s 1B class is as thin as this years so if you want to put up money at 1B it just looks like the best answer is to resign LaRoche even if it takes a 3rd season.</p>
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		<title>By: Wally</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6808</link>
		<dc:creator>Wally</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2012 13:08:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6808</guid>
		<description>PDowdy - looking at it again, you are right that I probably undersold Zim&#039;s power a bit going forward, so let&#039;s just say he hits in line with your numbers (even though that is slightly above his career averages and he&#039;ll play several years post-peak during the contract).   If he stays at 3B, we agree that the contract will look good.  Those numbers would be top 5 among 3B over the last 5 years, squarely middle of the pack for 1B (before taking into account defense in either case).

I was just trying (poorly) to say that I think Zim is much more valuable to Nats at 3B than 1B, so I have never understood the willingness to switch, even to find room for Rendon&#039;s bat.  Even with his throwing problems (which admittedly made my stomach clench on occasion), he was essentially league average on D last year.  I&#039;d play him there until his range is severely diminished.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>PDowdy &#8211; looking at it again, you are right that I probably undersold Zim&#8217;s power a bit going forward, so let&#8217;s just say he hits in line with your numbers (even though that is slightly above his career averages and he&#8217;ll play several years post-peak during the contract).   If he stays at 3B, we agree that the contract will look good.  Those numbers would be top 5 among 3B over the last 5 years, squarely middle of the pack for 1B (before taking into account defense in either case).</p>
<p>I was just trying (poorly) to say that I think Zim is much more valuable to Nats at 3B than 1B, so I have never understood the willingness to switch, even to find room for Rendon&#8217;s bat.  Even with his throwing problems (which admittedly made my stomach clench on occasion), he was essentially league average on D last year.  I&#8217;d play him there until his range is severely diminished.</p>
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		<title>By: pdowdy83</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6802</link>
		<dc:creator>pdowdy83</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2012 04:43:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6802</guid>
		<description>Wally, Zimmerman hasn&#039;t had an OPS that low in 4 years.  He only came close to it once and that was 2011 when he had surgery during the season.  Even with his poor start last year he put up a .282/.346/.478 line which is far more productive than the line you are suggesting.

If Zim plays in 140 games a year he is probably more along the lines of a .285/.360/.490 line with a 25-30 homer total and 90-100 RBI.  If he stays at 3rd for the length of the contract that will provide surplus value.  I think that is probably highly unlikely.  The only thing I can look at and see is that his contract is only half of what Fielder, Pujols and Votto are making and the contracts of firstbasemen is highly overpaid.  If Zimm moves to 1b and provides consistent offense, even if it is below what those 3 do, in the end his contract could look like a bargain.  All that is contingent on his questionable health.

Contracts seem to be skyrocketing, as evidenced by Upton getting $15 million a year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wally, Zimmerman hasn&#8217;t had an OPS that low in 4 years.  He only came close to it once and that was 2011 when he had surgery during the season.  Even with his poor start last year he put up a .282/.346/.478 line which is far more productive than the line you are suggesting.</p>
<p>If Zim plays in 140 games a year he is probably more along the lines of a .285/.360/.490 line with a 25-30 homer total and 90-100 RBI.  If he stays at 3rd for the length of the contract that will provide surplus value.  I think that is probably highly unlikely.  The only thing I can look at and see is that his contract is only half of what Fielder, Pujols and Votto are making and the contracts of firstbasemen is highly overpaid.  If Zimm moves to 1b and provides consistent offense, even if it is below what those 3 do, in the end his contract could look like a bargain.  All that is contingent on his questionable health.</p>
<p>Contracts seem to be skyrocketing, as evidenced by Upton getting $15 million a year.</p>
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		<title>By: Wally</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6800</link>
		<dc:creator>Wally</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2012 01:41:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6800</guid>
		<description>Todd - I meant Zim&#039;s first deal (5/$45m).   I thought that was pretty good.  I am going to wait out the 6/$100m deal to see whether it was good.  I totally agree with you that it will depend on his health, and I&#039;d add, whether he stays at 3b.   If he plays 140 games a year at 3b for the life of the extension, I think it will turn out ok.   If he moves to 1b in two years, I think it will be a poor deal.   I see him as .280/.340/.450 wherever he plays, which is good for 3b (especially with good D), and just ok at 1b.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Todd &#8211; I meant Zim&#8217;s first deal (5/$45m).   I thought that was pretty good.  I am going to wait out the 6/$100m deal to see whether it was good.  I totally agree with you that it will depend on his health, and I&#8217;d add, whether he stays at 3b.   If he plays 140 games a year at 3b for the life of the extension, I think it will turn out ok.   If he moves to 1b in two years, I think it will be a poor deal.   I see him as .280/.340/.450 wherever he plays, which is good for 3b (especially with good D), and just ok at 1b.</p>
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		<title>By: pdowdy83</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6799</link>
		<dc:creator>pdowdy83</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Nov 2012 01:10:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6799</guid>
		<description>Guess we can get off the Swisher band wagon now that they picked up Span.

I am sooooooo glad they made this trade instead of a 5 year deal for Bourn.  Span is among the best in the league at making contact and that is big with his speed. This makes the lineup look a bit different but I really like it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Guess we can get off the Swisher band wagon now that they picked up Span.</p>
<p>I am sooooooo glad they made this trade instead of a 5 year deal for Bourn.  Span is among the best in the league at making contact and that is big with his speed. This makes the lineup look a bit different but I really like it.</p>
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		<title>By: Todd Boss</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6788</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Boss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Nov 2012 17:30:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6788</guid>
		<description>It seems like it is option c.  We all read reports at the time of GMs who so hated Bowden that they&#039;d just hang up the phone on him.  And I distinctly remember reading quotes from GMs who said Bowden was asking for the world for certain guys (Soriano, Cordero).  

Bowden had no concept of building teams, period.  Rizzo took over a team that literally had no bullpen and whose farm system had bottomed out.  How much of that is Bowden&#039;s fault?  Has to be a lot of it.  Bowden was obsessed with toolsy guys, reclamation projects and his former players.  Hence his falling in love with guys like Lastings Milledge and Dmitri Young, and why Austin Kearns kept getting contracts.  I remember counting up the 40-man roster with Cincinnati ties at one point and it was literally a quarter of the roster.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems like it is option c.  We all read reports at the time of GMs who so hated Bowden that they&#8217;d just hang up the phone on him.  And I distinctly remember reading quotes from GMs who said Bowden was asking for the world for certain guys (Soriano, Cordero).  </p>
<p>Bowden had no concept of building teams, period.  Rizzo took over a team that literally had no bullpen and whose farm system had bottomed out.  How much of that is Bowden&#8217;s fault?  Has to be a lot of it.  Bowden was obsessed with toolsy guys, reclamation projects and his former players.  Hence his falling in love with guys like Lastings Milledge and Dmitri Young, and why Austin Kearns kept getting contracts.  I remember counting up the 40-man roster with Cincinnati ties at one point and it was literally a quarter of the roster.</p>
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		<title>By: Todd Boss</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6786</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Boss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Nov 2012 16:29:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6786</guid>
		<description>Hmm.  I&#039;m not sure i like Zimmerman&#039;s extension as much as you do.  6/$100 = $16.67 AAV, which means he&#039;s roughly the 30th highest paid player right now in the game.  Would you claim that he&#039;s among the 30 best players in the league?  On potential, probably sure; best-in-the-league defense to go along with 30 homer capabilities and penchant for always hitting the ball on the nose.  But injuries just keep setting him back.  His &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=ZIMMERMAN19840928A&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;injury list is incredible&lt;/a&gt;; I count 11 different times in his short career where he&#039;s missed time due to injury already, 4 surgeries, and significant time lost in 4 of the last 5 seasons.  Its tough to say that the Nats are going to get value out of Zimmerman if he continues to be so brittle.  This goes to my starting to beleive that Zimmerman would be better served moving to 1B sooner than later.

On Gio; i did say it was &quot;trending as a complete steal.&quot;  I just think its folly to judge a 5 year deal as a success one year in.  If Gonzalez turns into Daniel Cabrera in two years time and we have to eat $20M of that contract ... well we won&#039;t think its so great then.  I will say though that just on a $/win basis, Gio is already doing a good job of earning value for the life of this contract, even if he gets hit by a truck next year.  21 wins for $45M guaranteed is a bit more than $2M/win, and he&#039;s still got 4 years to accumulate more wins.

Totally agree on Werth&#039;s contract becoming more &quot;innocuous&quot; as more big money deals come out.  I may have said the same thing somewhere, either in a column or in a blog posting.  In fact, It&#039;ll be very curious to see how the blogosphere starts reacting to all these big money deals.  I&#039;m guessing they&#039;re all going to be labeled &quot;massive overpays&quot; immediately, since we&#039;re judging money on the past versus on the future.  Brandon League, Jeremy Affeldt deals already criticized for the amount of money for relievers as examples.

I&#039;ve always had a sore spot for the treatment of Werth&#039;s contract and the Nats making it.  I felt it was related to the prevailing opinion of the franchise at the time moreso than to the actual contract.  My proof was the reaction to the Carl Crawford deal, a guy who got MORE money than Werth but who was inarguably a lesser hitter.  Did the REd Sox get absolutely crushed like the Nats did in the press at the time?  No of course not, because they were making lots of big money deals.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmm.  I&#8217;m not sure i like Zimmerman&#8217;s extension as much as you do.  6/$100 = $16.67 AAV, which means he&#8217;s roughly the 30th highest paid player right now in the game.  Would you claim that he&#8217;s among the 30 best players in the league?  On potential, probably sure; best-in-the-league defense to go along with 30 homer capabilities and penchant for always hitting the ball on the nose.  But injuries just keep setting him back.  His <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=ZIMMERMAN19840928A" rel="nofollow">injury list is incredible</a>; I count 11 different times in his short career where he&#8217;s missed time due to injury already, 4 surgeries, and significant time lost in 4 of the last 5 seasons.  Its tough to say that the Nats are going to get value out of Zimmerman if he continues to be so brittle.  This goes to my starting to beleive that Zimmerman would be better served moving to 1B sooner than later.</p>
<p>On Gio; i did say it was &#8220;trending as a complete steal.&#8221;  I just think its folly to judge a 5 year deal as a success one year in.  If Gonzalez turns into Daniel Cabrera in two years time and we have to eat $20M of that contract &#8230; well we won&#8217;t think its so great then.  I will say though that just on a $/win basis, Gio is already doing a good job of earning value for the life of this contract, even if he gets hit by a truck next year.  21 wins for $45M guaranteed is a bit more than $2M/win, and he&#8217;s still got 4 years to accumulate more wins.</p>
<p>Totally agree on Werth&#8217;s contract becoming more &#8220;innocuous&#8221; as more big money deals come out.  I may have said the same thing somewhere, either in a column or in a blog posting.  In fact, It&#8217;ll be very curious to see how the blogosphere starts reacting to all these big money deals.  I&#8217;m guessing they&#8217;re all going to be labeled &#8220;massive overpays&#8221; immediately, since we&#8217;re judging money on the past versus on the future.  Brandon League, Jeremy Affeldt deals already criticized for the amount of money for relievers as examples.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve always had a sore spot for the treatment of Werth&#8217;s contract and the Nats making it.  I felt it was related to the prevailing opinion of the franchise at the time moreso than to the actual contract.  My proof was the reaction to the Carl Crawford deal, a guy who got MORE money than Werth but who was inarguably a lesser hitter.  Did the REd Sox get absolutely crushed like the Nats did in the press at the time?  No of course not, because they were making lots of big money deals.</p>
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		<title>By: PDowdy</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056&#038;cpage=1#comment-6784</link>
		<dc:creator>PDowdy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Nov 2012 14:34:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4056#comment-6784</guid>
		<description>Agreed bdrube.  Bowden had no concept of trading people when they had value.  It seemed like either 

a.) he overvalued what he had or 

b.) every GM in baseball hated him and refused to trade with him.

Maybe it is option c.) a and b combined.

Even if he had moved just Cordero the team would have been able to get a pretty decent prospect for him.  Guzman and Young may not have fetched much but Rizzo did manage to turn Guzman into Tanner Roark and Ryan Tatsuko 2 years later.  If he got 2 arms, albeit unimpressive ones, you would have to think somebody would have been interested in giving up something with more upside than that during Guzzie&#039;s all star season.  I guess maybe Bowden was so delusional he thought he could pull another couple of Dmitri Young&#039;s off the scrap heap and put together a competitive team instead of, you know, actually building from within like &quot;the plan&quot; said.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agreed bdrube.  Bowden had no concept of trading people when they had value.  It seemed like either </p>
<p>a.) he overvalued what he had or </p>
<p>b.) every GM in baseball hated him and refused to trade with him.</p>
<p>Maybe it is option c.) a and b combined.</p>
<p>Even if he had moved just Cordero the team would have been able to get a pretty decent prospect for him.  Guzman and Young may not have fetched much but Rizzo did manage to turn Guzman into Tanner Roark and Ryan Tatsuko 2 years later.  If he got 2 arms, albeit unimpressive ones, you would have to think somebody would have been interested in giving up something with more upside than that during Guzzie&#8217;s all star season.  I guess maybe Bowden was so delusional he thought he could pull another couple of Dmitri Young&#8217;s off the scrap heap and put together a competitive team instead of, you know, actually building from within like &#8220;the plan&#8221; said.</p>
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