Comments on: Giolito to have TJ surgery; Not good http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420 "... the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.” -- Earl Weaver Sat, 25 May 2013 02:57:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5147 Todd Boss Sat, 01 Sep 2012 15:11:10 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5147 Yeah, maybe I don't want to be so bandwagony. In re Harper, actually until this week I was thinking he needed a fake DL trip to clear his head. I've got a "Ewing Theory" article planned but not yet completed. Yeah, maybe I don’t want to be so bandwagony. In re Harper, actually until this week I was thinking he needed a fake DL trip to clear his head. I’ve got a “Ewing Theory” article planned but not yet completed.

]]> By: John C. http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5145 John C. Sat, 01 Sep 2012 06:04:56 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5145 <i>Fair enough; its kind of difficult to write opinion pieces on a team in first place.</i> Well,only if the opinion pieces you write are negative. A positive opinion piece happens all the time. I know you don't want to feel like a cheerleader, but come ON, Todd - write about Harper putting up a season in rarified air for a 19yo. Write about how the rotation 1-5 compares with other teams in the division, or in MLB. Do an analysis of the Nationals' defense using advanced metrics, noting their improvement on turning balls in play into outs. It can be done! :-) Fair enough; its kind of difficult to write opinion pieces on a team in first place.

Well,only if the opinion pieces you write are negative. A positive opinion piece happens all the time. I know you don’t want to feel like a cheerleader, but come ON, Todd – write about Harper putting up a season in rarified air for a 19yo. Write about how the rotation 1-5 compares with other teams in the division, or in MLB. Do an analysis of the Nationals’ defense using advanced metrics, noting their improvement on turning balls in play into outs.

It can be done! :-)

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5144 Todd Boss Fri, 31 Aug 2012 20:49:59 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5144 39 active, 2 on 60-day DL for 41 guys we're talking about. I count 5 pure FAs that immediately come off books: Burnett, Gonzalez, Jackson, Wang, DeRosa. LaRoche has a mutual option that he may decline to pursue a longer-term deal. If we assume he does, that's 6 FAs. I think the team non-tenders only Gorzelanny and Lannan but looks to bring Gorzelanny back as a long-man. I don't think Rodriguez or Kimball are going anywhere; both are power arms that Rizzo craves. Also, there's NO way the team just gives Flores away. He's a catcher in a catcher-thin league. So, 41-6=35 to start, perhaps down to 33 at the non-tender deadline. That leaves 7 spots opened up ... but if my scenario plays out as described above with 6 FAs and 2 non tenders, that includes no less than FIVE of our current 25-man roster. Which means most likely we'll be active in the FA market looking for replacements for those five guys. First example: Who replaces Edwin Jackson? The next guys in line are Lannan and Wang; both likely gone. After that is perhaps Perry or Maya, both on 40-man but so far both proven not to be able to get out MLB hitters. So we're going to be looking for another starter. Same goes with replacing Burnett and Gonzalez as lefties out of the pen, and replacing DeRosa as mlb-veteran utility infielder. My point is that, yeah we have a lot of guys getting cut but we can't just leave those spots open on the 40-man; we'll need to immediately fill them with MLB deals in free agency. So we go from 33 open spots probably almost immediately to 37 or 38 with these eventual FA signings.... and boom, you have your roster crunch when it comes to rule5. I have a draft version of the 2012 rule 5 pre-draft recommendations and it could get ugly. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdGhVRjRfNW81SG8xRlROQ1ZxZzNfbUE&hl=en#gid=0 is the draft tracker; yellow is 2012 R5 eligible but don't forget 2011 R5 guys who have stepped up and may need protecting. At first glance in the conversation to be protected has to include: Kobernus, Rosenbaum, Karns, Hood, and Demny. I'm not saying they all need to be protected, but some of them may. My point is this; if the team wants to protect more than 2 guys, they're looking at a one-for-one replacement. Maybe they do DFA Marrero and Kimball, but they probably don't want to. Marrero is only 24. Kimball was relatively successful (but honestly may be done). That's the whole "roster crunch" argument I keep making. 39 active, 2 on 60-day DL for 41 guys we’re talking about. I count 5 pure FAs that immediately come off books: Burnett, Gonzalez, Jackson, Wang, DeRosa. LaRoche has a mutual option that he may decline to pursue a longer-term deal. If we assume he does, that’s 6 FAs. I think the team non-tenders only Gorzelanny and Lannan but looks to bring Gorzelanny back as a long-man. I don’t think Rodriguez or Kimball are going anywhere; both are power arms that Rizzo craves. Also, there’s NO way the team just gives Flores away. He’s a catcher in a catcher-thin league.

So, 41-6=35 to start, perhaps down to 33 at the non-tender deadline. That leaves 7 spots opened up … but if my scenario plays out as described above with 6 FAs and 2 non tenders, that includes no less than FIVE of our current 25-man roster. Which means most likely we’ll be active in the FA market looking for replacements for those five guys. First example: Who replaces Edwin Jackson? The next guys in line are Lannan and Wang; both likely gone. After that is perhaps Perry or Maya, both on 40-man but so far both proven not to be able to get out MLB hitters. So we’re going to be looking for another starter. Same goes with replacing Burnett and Gonzalez as lefties out of the pen, and replacing DeRosa as mlb-veteran utility infielder.

My point is that, yeah we have a lot of guys getting cut but we can’t just leave those spots open on the 40-man; we’ll need to immediately fill them with MLB deals in free agency. So we go from 33 open spots probably almost immediately to 37 or 38 with these eventual FA signings…. and boom, you have your roster crunch when it comes to rule5. I have a draft version of the 2012 rule 5 pre-draft recommendations and it could get ugly.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdGhVRjRfNW81SG8xRlROQ1ZxZzNfbUE&hl=en#gid=0 is the draft tracker; yellow is 2012 R5 eligible but don’t forget 2011 R5 guys who have stepped up and may need protecting. At first glance in the conversation to be protected has to include: Kobernus, Rosenbaum, Karns, Hood, and Demny. I’m not saying they all need to be protected, but some of them may.

My point is this; if the team wants to protect more than 2 guys, they’re looking at a one-for-one replacement. Maybe they do DFA Marrero and Kimball, but they probably don’t want to. Marrero is only 24. Kimball was relatively successful (but honestly may be done). That’s the whole “roster crunch” argument I keep making.

]]> By: pdowdy83 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5143 pdowdy83 Fri, 31 Aug 2012 19:27:22 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5143 The 40 man roster is only at 39 active members and 3 or 4 of those are probably going to get cut at the end of the season (Wang, Derosa, HRod possibly and Kimball). That leaves 5 open slots. Marrero also may be doomed with Moore passing him on the depth chart. There is also a very strong possibility of Flores being non tendered or trading prior to the rule V draft and also Lannan and Gorzelanny look like a strong non tender candidates with their over inflated contract. I don't see a huge issue with Rendon on the 40 man but I do agree that Purke getting a ML deal was a mistake. I just don't see where the team is doomed because of 40 man roster issues though. Before the rule 5 draft it is conceivable that the team will have cleard 8 roster slots. Some of those will be filled in with signings of course but it seems safe to assume there will be room for around 4 guys to be added to it. The 40 man roster is only at 39 active members and 3 or 4 of those are probably going to get cut at the end of the season (Wang, Derosa, HRod possibly and Kimball). That leaves 5 open slots. Marrero also may be doomed with Moore passing him on the depth chart. There is also a very strong possibility of Flores being non tendered or trading prior to the rule V draft and also Lannan and Gorzelanny look like a strong non tender candidates with their over inflated contract. I don’t see a huge issue with Rendon on the 40 man but I do agree that Purke getting a ML deal was a mistake. I just don’t see where the team is doomed because of 40 man roster issues though. Before the rule 5 draft it is conceivable that the team will have cleard 8 roster slots. Some of those will be filled in with signings of course but it seems safe to assume there will be room for around 4 guys to be added to it.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5126 Todd Boss Mon, 27 Aug 2012 14:36:55 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5126 Having both Rendon and Purke on 40-man has caused the team angst, and will continue to do so. Plus, all these guys they've had to put on the 40-man this season to cover for injuries are going to come back to haunt them. Totally agree. Having both Rendon and Purke on 40-man has caused the team angst, and will continue to do so. Plus, all these guys they’ve had to put on the 40-man this season to cover for injuries are going to come back to haunt them. Totally agree.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5125 Todd Boss Mon, 27 Aug 2012 14:34:23 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5125 I liked Devin Marrero specifically at the time. Big time college bat, highly regarded and who slipped past 16. I think the team needs to focus on high-end hitters down on the farm, after having spent much of the last two drafts on arms. I liked Devin Marrero specifically at the time. Big time college bat, highly regarded and who slipped past 16. I think the team needs to focus on high-end hitters down on the farm, after having spent much of the last two drafts on arms.

]]> By: Mark L http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5119 Mark L Sat, 25 Aug 2012 12:52:17 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5119 Let's face it, the Nats bet the farm on this pick and it may become a total loss. We won't know for 2-3 years. Pitchers who have TJ surgery AFTER they've developed have much more success than otherwise. The only major blunder I see with Purke was putting him on the 40 man roster. Just a disaster, as the Rule V this year is a potantial bloodbath and having him on it means we'l lose someone we wouldn't otherwise lose. Let’s face it, the Nats bet the farm on this pick and it may become a total loss. We won’t know for 2-3 years.
Pitchers who have TJ surgery AFTER they’ve developed have much more success than otherwise.
The only major blunder I see with Purke was putting him on the 40 man roster. Just a disaster, as the Rule V this year is a potantial bloodbath and having him on it means we’l lose someone we wouldn’t otherwise lose.

]]> By: Wally http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5115 Wally Fri, 24 Aug 2012 22:14:26 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5115 Agree with SJM, and would add that 2012 wasn't considered a particularly strong draft, so from a process point, I don't think it was a bad risk to take this year given his upside and nature of injury (elbow v. shoulder). Plus, even looking over the last few drafts in aggregate, Rendon's pick was widely applauded as a good risk and after a year, the primary risk at the time (shoulder) appears to be in the past. I agree with you that the Purke pick was really the risky one, and maybe even foolish, given it was a shoulder injury, they paid 50% more than for Giolito, and also gave him a MLB deal, shortening the time that they can ride out the recovery. Agree with SJM, and would add that 2012 wasn’t considered a particularly strong draft, so from a process point, I don’t think it was a bad risk to take this year given his upside and nature of injury (elbow v. shoulder). Plus, even looking over the last few drafts in aggregate, Rendon’s pick was widely applauded as a good risk and after a year, the primary risk at the time (shoulder) appears to be in the past.

I agree with you that the Purke pick was really the risky one, and maybe even foolish, given it was a shoulder injury, they paid 50% more than for Giolito, and also gave him a MLB deal, shortening the time that they can ride out the recovery.

]]> By: SJM 308 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5114 SJM 308 Fri, 24 Aug 2012 22:02:11 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5114 this was a good read and I don't think it was all that negative. I would only ask who we could have drafted at 16 that would project as much value as Giolito? this was a good read and I don’t think it was all that negative. I would only ask who we could have drafted at 16 that would project as much value as Giolito?

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420&cpage=1#comment-5113 Todd Boss Fri, 24 Aug 2012 21:11:14 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4420#comment-5113 Karns was out with a shoulder. But I've always liked him; thought he was a steal of a selection in the mid-rounds and this season he's finally starting to show it. Agree on Perry except for yesterday's shellacking. Its kind of scary though to look at our upper-end pitching depth and see how many are injured right now. Of the 20 top arms in the system (per my own opinion) 5 are on long term injuries (Giolito, Jordan, Solis, Purke and Selik). Karns was out with a shoulder. But I’ve always liked him; thought he was a steal of a selection in the mid-rounds and this season he’s finally starting to show it. Agree on Perry except for yesterday’s shellacking.

Its kind of scary though to look at our upper-end pitching depth and see how many are injured right now. Of the 20 top arms in the system (per my own opinion) 5 are on long term injuries (Giolito, Jordan, Solis, Purke and Selik).

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