Comments on: John Sickels Season Review of all Nats 2012 draft picks http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456 "... the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.” -- Earl Weaver Mon, 20 May 2013 19:14:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-16492 Todd Boss Wed, 10 Apr 2013 22:47:23 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-16492 Hmm. I don't know where I got his height/weight from. Milb site lists him as 6'2" 185lbs. I wonder if I just was looking at the wrong guy. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543759 Hmm. I don’t know where I got his height/weight from. Milb site lists him as 6′2″ 185lbs. I wonder if I just was looking at the wrong guy.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543759

]]> By: Mike S http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-16485 Mike S Wed, 10 Apr 2013 20:53:50 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-16485 Not to nitpick, but Selsor is 6'2" (not 5'10") who could throw low to mid 90s if he learns to use his body more efficiently. He has the mental toughness, just needs to develop corner of the plate control. Not to nitpick, but Selsor is 6′2″ (not 5′10″) who could throw low to mid 90s if he learns to use his body more efficiently. He has the mental toughness, just needs to develop corner of the plate control.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-7110 Todd Boss Tue, 11 Dec 2012 15:34:17 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-7110 With the Greinke addition they have an argument for the best rotation in baseball, right up there with the Nats. Kershaw is arguably greater than Strasburg (they're the same age but Kershaw has a cy young and more MLB starts). Greinke is over hyped but is clearly on a par with Gio. If Becket returns to form (which he did at the end of last season) he has near ace potential (Zimmerman, while quite good, is usually referred to as a good #2). I think the Nats 4/5 options take the Dodger's 4/5 options though, so perhaps the Nats still win out. But the Dodgers have TOO many starters under contract and can make some trades to get back some prospect depth if need be. Still, the point is LA now has a formidable rotation pitching in a very pitcher-friendly park. (I talk about this more in an upcoming post where I rank the 30 rotations, a tease for a post later this week that we can all argue about ad-naseum since its nearly impossible to rank 30 rotations and not get something wrong). On the offensive side ... it all comes down to whether the likes of Crawford, Gonzalez, Hanley perform in new environments. All of them were in toxic places and wanted out. You can easily argue that LA is improved across the board over last year right? They still won 86 games last year. How many WAR in a full season do all these guys contribute? A lot. A full season of Kemp adds a few wins, Grienke a few wins, and if you believe Gonzalez/Hanley/Crawford rebound (which I do), they're each worth a couple wins more ... suddenly you go from 86 wins to nearly 100. I think they've absolutely set themselves up to improve enough to make the playoffs though. Are they really worse than SF? How long do the Giants get by with a minor league free agent retread (Vogelsong) and a guy on the worst contract in baseball (Zito)? Is Lincecum an Ace or suddenly an unreliable reliever? They have absolutely no power (I mean, laughably no power). I still don't know how they won the WS. The money factor is another issue. And a scary one for the immediate future of baseball. With the Greinke addition they have an argument for the best rotation in baseball, right up there with the Nats. Kershaw is arguably greater than Strasburg (they’re the same age but Kershaw has a cy young and more MLB starts). Greinke is over hyped but is clearly on a par with Gio. If Becket returns to form (which he did at the end of last season) he has near ace potential (Zimmerman, while quite good, is usually referred to as a good #2). I think the Nats 4/5 options take the Dodger’s 4/5 options though, so perhaps the Nats still win out. But the Dodgers have TOO many starters under contract and can make some trades to get back some prospect depth if need be. Still, the point is LA now has a formidable rotation pitching in a very pitcher-friendly park. (I talk about this more in an upcoming post where I rank the 30 rotations, a tease for a post later this week that we can all argue about ad-naseum since its nearly impossible to rank 30 rotations and not get something wrong).

On the offensive side … it all comes down to whether the likes of Crawford, Gonzalez, Hanley perform in new environments. All of them were in toxic places and wanted out. You can easily argue that LA is improved across the board over last year right? They still won 86 games last year. How many WAR in a full season do all these guys contribute? A lot. A full season of Kemp adds a few wins, Grienke a few wins, and if you believe Gonzalez/Hanley/Crawford rebound (which I do), they’re each worth a couple wins more … suddenly you go from 86 wins to nearly 100.

I think they’ve absolutely set themselves up to improve enough to make the playoffs though. Are they really worse than SF? How long do the Giants get by with a minor league free agent retread (Vogelsong) and a guy on the worst contract in baseball (Zito)? Is Lincecum an Ace or suddenly an unreliable reliever? They have absolutely no power (I mean, laughably no power). I still don’t know how they won the WS.

The money factor is another issue. And a scary one for the immediate future of baseball.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-7109 Todd Boss Tue, 11 Dec 2012 15:19:55 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-7109 Hey, sometimes its just easier to write about the 25-man major league roster. There's more farm system guys yeah, but without the benefit of going to the games and seeing these guys with your own eyes, its hard to really be an accurate judge of talent. I wish I had done this type of effort for 2011's draft; it was pretty interesting to go player by player and see how they did in their first year. Hey, sometimes its just easier to write about the 25-man major league roster. There’s more farm system guys yeah, but without the benefit of going to the games and seeing these guys with your own eyes, its hard to really be an accurate judge of talent.

I wish I had done this type of effort for 2011’s draft; it was pretty interesting to go player by player and see how they did in their first year.

]]> By: The 2013 NationalsProspects.com Watchlist - NationalsProspects.com http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-7103 The 2013 NationalsProspects.com Watchlist - NationalsProspects.com Tue, 11 Dec 2012 12:52:38 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-7103 [...] In the meantime, I’d recommend folks take a peek at the idea I will steal from him next year excellent work Todd Boss has done aggregating Sickels’ opinions on the Nats’ 2012 draft along with his own work detailing how the entire class did in their first pro season. [...] [...] In the meantime, I’d recommend folks take a peek at the idea I will steal from him next year excellent work Todd Boss has done aggregating Sickels’ opinions on the Nats’ 2012 draft along with his own work detailing how the entire class did in their first pro season. [...]

]]> By: Mark L http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-7086 Mark L Mon, 10 Dec 2012 22:46:00 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-7086 I'm glad you broke your rule on no longer writing about the farm. This was a good job of coalescing all the information together. Thanks. As much as I find room to criticize some of Rizzo's major league moves, I really feel they have the best developmental people in all of baseball. Remember, this is the first offseason for the coaches to work with Mooneyham, let's see what 2013 brings. Now that they've traded or lost so many players, the pressure is really going to on the development side. I’m glad you broke your rule on no longer writing about the farm. This was a good job of coalescing all the information together. Thanks.
As much as I find room to criticize some of Rizzo’s major league moves, I really feel they have the best developmental people in all of baseball.
Remember, this is the first offseason for the coaches to work with Mooneyham, let’s see what 2013 brings.
Now that they’ve traded or lost so many players, the pressure is really going to on the development side.

]]> By: Wally http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-7085 Wally Mon, 10 Dec 2012 22:22:42 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-7085 Off topic, but I have been thinking about the Dodgers. Forgetting the money for a minute, just how good do you think they are? It isn't clear to me that they are even the best team in their division, let alone the NL. They clearly have two exceptional starters fronting their rotation (I like Greinke more than you, I think), but with Billingsley hurt, it is not clear that any other starter is even league average. Beckett? Lilly? Capuano is probably the best of the rest, but he is no one to get excited about. They have two studs in their lineup (Kemp and Gonzalez, and I am giving Kemp a complete pass on the injury), and two above average-ish others in Ethier and AJ Ellis, and a whole lot of questions. What is to be expected from Hanley these days? And Crawford always had platoon issues, and now hasn't really played in two years and is on the downside of 30 (who would have predicted at the time that you'd love to have Werth's deal over Crawford's?). I think I'd rank SF, STL, CIN, WAS and ATL ahead of them right now, with MIL and ARI pretty close behind. As crazy as it may sound, looking at all their trades, the Korean kid and Greinke, I think the Greinke deal was the best. Off topic, but I have been thinking about the Dodgers. Forgetting the money for a minute, just how good do you think they are? It isn’t clear to me that they are even the best team in their division, let alone the NL. They clearly have two exceptional starters fronting their rotation (I like Greinke more than you, I think), but with Billingsley hurt, it is not clear that any other starter is even league average. Beckett? Lilly? Capuano is probably the best of the rest, but he is no one to get excited about. They have two studs in their lineup (Kemp and Gonzalez, and I am giving Kemp a complete pass on the injury), and two above average-ish others in Ethier and AJ Ellis, and a whole lot of questions. What is to be expected from Hanley these days? And Crawford always had platoon issues, and now hasn’t really played in two years and is on the downside of 30 (who would have predicted at the time that you’d love to have Werth’s deal over Crawford’s?). I think I’d rank SF, STL, CIN, WAS and ATL ahead of them right now, with MIL and ARI pretty close behind.

As crazy as it may sound, looking at all their trades, the Korean kid and Greinke, I think the Greinke deal was the best.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-7083 Todd Boss Mon, 10 Dec 2012 20:14:50 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-7083 Well, clearly the key to the draft is whether Giolito recovers and produces at a near 1-1 level. The Nats "saved" money on below slot deals all throughout the draft so as to maximize what they could give in bonus to Giolito. If he fails, then the whole draft is a failure. Who do I like? I agree with Sickels' commentary on some of the hitters. I like Miller, I want to see what Lippincott can do, and I like what McQuillan did as such a low rounded draft pick. For arms, I think Mooneyham will continue to progress through the system, I like Pena and Schwartz. I really want to see what DiCharry and Orlan do, given their former pedigrees and late-round drafting. And i'm curious to see what Boyden can do, to see if he can get his walks down. Well, clearly the key to the draft is whether Giolito recovers and produces at a near 1-1 level. The Nats “saved” money on below slot deals all throughout the draft so as to maximize what they could give in bonus to Giolito. If he fails, then the whole draft is a failure.

Who do I like? I agree with Sickels’ commentary on some of the hitters. I like Miller, I want to see what Lippincott can do, and I like what McQuillan did as such a low rounded draft pick. For arms, I think Mooneyham will continue to progress through the system, I like Pena and Schwartz. I really want to see what DiCharry and Orlan do, given their former pedigrees and late-round drafting. And i’m curious to see what Boyden can do, to see if he can get his walks down.

]]> By: Wally http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-7082 Wally Mon, 10 Dec 2012 20:01:48 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-7082 Which ones do you like? I am not an avid prospect follower, especially now that the major league team is good, and I can't quite tell from your write up. They seem like mostly college seniors playing below their age- appropriate leagues (although I am pulling for Fischer since he came from my old school). Injuries: what you say has logic, but I can't help wondering if it is the new inefficiency, given how competitive things are searching for talent. If a team can show some unique skill rehabbing injuries, it could be a real competitive advantage at least for a little while. Can't say the Nats inspire that much confidence from me yet, medically speaking. Which ones do you like? I am not an avid prospect follower, especially now that the major league team is good, and I can’t quite tell from your write up. They seem like mostly college seniors playing below their age- appropriate leagues (although I am pulling for Fischer since he came from my old school).

Injuries: what you say has logic, but I can’t help wondering if it is the new inefficiency, given how competitive things are searching for talent. If a team can show some unique skill rehabbing injuries, it could be a real competitive advantage at least for a little while. Can’t say the Nats inspire that much confidence from me yet, medically speaking.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456&cpage=1#comment-7078 Todd Boss Mon, 10 Dec 2012 19:04:24 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4456#comment-7078 I didn't like the Giolito pick and said so at the time. I don't like HS players taken that high to begin with, and I certainly didn't like taking a guy who knowingly had a tear in his UCL. I think that fact was glossed over at the time; you can say "semantics" over the difference between a "sprain" and a "small tear" but the Nats drafted damaged goods. And I especially didn't like taking an injury risk given that we already had significant $$ committed to Rendon and Purke, both themselves injury risks. If all three of these guys fail to pan out, we're going to have a very large hole in the farm system pipeline, very soon. I thought the team should have gone for one of the bigger college names still on the board at the time, hitters for a system that has slowed its production of hitters. BUT, I can see the thought process of the team. They have the bulk of this rotation locked up for at least 3 years, and can wait out development of the guys they have in the system plus a potential 5 year minor league project like Giolito. Fair enough. And they'll look like complete geniuses if Giolito turns out to be a BA top 10 prospect in 2015. We'll see. Mooneyham had some good starts towards the end of the season (a couple of 6ip, 0 or 1 ER) that really made his ERA look good. But it was only in 10 games. Not enough K's for me, and too many bb for the K's he does get. I can't wait to see what he does in a full season. This ended up being kind of a cool exercise; the guys we got in the late, late rounds may be real diamonds in the rough. I didn’t like the Giolito pick and said so at the time. I don’t like HS players taken that high to begin with, and I certainly didn’t like taking a guy who knowingly had a tear in his UCL. I think that fact was glossed over at the time; you can say “semantics” over the difference between a “sprain” and a “small tear” but the Nats drafted damaged goods. And I especially didn’t like taking an injury risk given that we already had significant $$ committed to Rendon and Purke, both themselves injury risks. If all three of these guys fail to pan out, we’re going to have a very large hole in the farm system pipeline, very soon. I thought the team should have gone for one of the bigger college names still on the board at the time, hitters for a system that has slowed its production of hitters.

BUT, I can see the thought process of the team. They have the bulk of this rotation locked up for at least 3 years, and can wait out development of the guys they have in the system plus a potential 5 year minor league project like Giolito. Fair enough. And they’ll look like complete geniuses if Giolito turns out to be a BA top 10 prospect in 2015. We’ll see.

Mooneyham had some good starts towards the end of the season (a couple of 6ip, 0 or 1 ER) that really made his ERA look good. But it was only in 10 games. Not enough K’s for me, and too many bb for the K’s he does get. I can’t wait to see what he does in a full season.

This ended up being kind of a cool exercise; the guys we got in the late, late rounds may be real diamonds in the rough.

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