Comments on: Nationals Players’ Service Time and Option Status for 2013 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047 "... the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.” -- Earl Weaver Fri, 24 May 2013 16:09:29 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Another Confusing Post About Options - NationalsProspects.com http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-8970 Another Confusing Post About Options - NationalsProspects.com Mon, 11 Feb 2013 13:59:52 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-8970 [...] I go any further, let me give credit to the research of Todd Boss as well our volunteer who runs the Big Board, SpringfieldFan, for making this post easier, if not [...] [...] I go any further, let me give credit to the research of Todd Boss as well our volunteer who runs the Big Board, SpringfieldFan, for making this post easier, if not [...]

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6750 Todd Boss Wed, 28 Nov 2012 18:15:43 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6750 Fair enough on Lannan's 2007 situation. I've often wondered how MLB execs track this themselves. I'm envisioning a massive white board in Rizzo's office with all the same stuff we track on google spreadsheets :-) True on Leon and that's also my understanding on 4th year options, so yes clearly a guy like Harper will never get one. Purke on the other hand seems likely to need one eventually, since the odds of him getting to the majors by his 5th pro year seem slimmer and slimmer. Maya; perfect example. 4th pro season he'll need his 4th option. Fair enough on Lannan’s 2007 situation. I’ve often wondered how MLB execs track this themselves. I’m envisioning a massive white board in Rizzo’s office with all the same stuff we track on google spreadsheets :-)

True on Leon and that’s also my understanding on 4th year options, so yes clearly a guy like Harper will never get one. Purke on the other hand seems likely to need one eventually, since the odds of him getting to the majors by his 5th pro year seem slimmer and slimmer. Maya; perfect example. 4th pro season he’ll need his 4th option.

]]> By: SpringfieldFan http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6748 SpringfieldFan Wed, 28 Nov 2012 17:22:48 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6748 I had thought that Lannan burned an option in 2007. But if he was only added to the 40-man when he came up, and then was optioned a few days before the end of the season, he wouldn't have burned an option year if the season ended less than 20 days after he was sent back down. Because the time in the minors before you're added to the 40-man doesn't count toward the 20 days. But if Mark is getting his info from someone in the organization, then that's the final answer. I don't know how all of this is tracked by the league, though I think it must be in MLB HQ. When I asked Rizzo (in 2011) why Henry didn't get a 4th option year, it became clear that Henry's options aren't the first thing that Mike thinks about in the morning. Re: Leon -- whether or not a 4th option year is awarded is only determined when the first 3 are used up, right? So, for instance, if Harper isn't optioned again before he hits 5 professional seasons, then he won't earn a 4th option year, even through the first two options were burned quickly. I don't think Leon can burn the rest of his regular options without hitting the 5 year mark. I had thought that Lannan burned an option in 2007. But if he was only added to the 40-man when he came up, and then was optioned a few days before the end of the season, he wouldn’t have burned an option year if the season ended less than 20 days after he was sent back down. Because the time in the minors before you’re added to the 40-man doesn’t count toward the 20 days. But if Mark is getting his info from someone in the organization, then that’s the final answer. I don’t know how all of this is tracked by the league, though I think it must be in MLB HQ. When I asked Rizzo (in 2011) why Henry didn’t get a 4th option year, it became clear that Henry’s options aren’t the first thing that Mike thinks about in the morning.

Re: Leon — whether or not a 4th option year is awarded is only determined when the first 3 are used up, right? So, for instance, if Harper isn’t optioned again before he hits 5 professional seasons, then he won’t earn a 4th option year, even through the first two options were burned quickly. I don’t think Leon can burn the rest of his regular options without hitting the 5 year mark.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6743 Todd Boss Wed, 28 Nov 2012 16:58:49 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6743 Hey there SpringfieldFan! The Lannan question came up in Zuckerman's article on non-tenders yesterday and he claimed Lannan has no options left. Where's he getting his information? Because that to me is a massive part of the Lannan tender discussion. I will fix my own spreadsheet with your fixes. The one that i'm also curious about is Leon; the way i read the 4th option rules is a professional with less than 5 years pro experience at any level who burns 3 options. For example, Harper/Strasburg/Rendon/Purke will all be eligible for a 4th option presumably, since they started burning options immediately upon signing a mlb deal. I'll revisit Leon's sign date. Hey there SpringfieldFan! The Lannan question came up in Zuckerman’s article on non-tenders yesterday and he claimed Lannan has no options left. Where’s he getting his information? Because that to me is a massive part of the Lannan tender discussion.

I will fix my own spreadsheet with your fixes. The one that i’m also curious about is Leon; the way i read the 4th option rules is a professional with less than 5 years pro experience at any level who burns 3 options. For example, Harper/Strasburg/Rendon/Purke will all be eligible for a 4th option presumably, since they started burning options immediately upon signing a mlb deal. I’ll revisit Leon’s sign date.

]]> By: SpringfieldFan http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6721 SpringfieldFan Tue, 27 Nov 2012 22:14:28 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6721 Hi Todd, Sorry, I've been on work travel, so just seeing this now, but yes, I had largely updated the big board page a while back (but hadn't gotten to the ML service time/right to refuse demotion part, so thanks for that). It never hurts to have more discussion of options, though, as nothing's obvious or easy on this topic, and your thoughts made me go back and look again at some of the guys. I looked again at Stras and Storen and realized that the team had played a different game with options than I'd realized, and fixed what I had written. Also, you're right that Lannan didn't burn an option in 2007 because he was optioned back down right before the end of the season, and therefore didn't meet the 20-day requirement. And now I am left in shock that the man STILL has an option remaining. A few notes, none of which would affect your analysis, which, as always, is very interesting. - Mattheus used options in both 2009 (with the Rockies) and 2010 (with the Nats) (optioned in March, and stayed down all year), so his balance is quite a bit lower. That may start to be a factor in the team's decisionmaking, though you're probably right that he's entrenched on the roster. - Kimball was on the DL for all of 2012, so it wasn't necessary to use an option this year. - You show Leon as getting a 4th option year, but I don't know about that. Even if we assume that he wasn't active for 90 days in 07 or 08, he won't use up his other 2 options before he gets to 5 years of pro service time. - I don't see where Stammen was sent back down in 2009 after being added to the 40-man. I don't think an option was used for him that year. That would mean that he still has 2 option years remaining, which gives the team a lot of flexibility. Hi Todd,
Sorry, I’ve been on work travel, so just seeing this now, but yes, I had largely updated the big board page a while back (but hadn’t gotten to the ML service time/right to refuse demotion part, so thanks for that). It never hurts to have more discussion of options, though, as nothing’s obvious or easy on this topic, and your thoughts made me go back and look again at some of the guys. I looked again at Stras and Storen and realized that the team had played a different game with options than I’d realized, and fixed what I had written. Also, you’re right that Lannan didn’t burn an option in 2007 because he was optioned back down right before the end of the season, and therefore didn’t meet the 20-day requirement. And now I am left in shock that the man STILL has an option remaining.

A few notes, none of which would affect your analysis, which, as always, is very interesting.
- Mattheus used options in both 2009 (with the Rockies) and 2010 (with the Nats) (optioned in March, and stayed down all year), so his balance is quite a bit lower. That may start to be a factor in the team’s decisionmaking, though you’re probably right that he’s entrenched on the roster.
- Kimball was on the DL for all of 2012, so it wasn’t necessary to use an option this year.
- You show Leon as getting a 4th option year, but I don’t know about that. Even if we assume that he wasn’t active for 90 days in 07 or 08, he won’t use up his other 2 options before he gets to 5 years of pro service time.
- I don’t see where Stammen was sent back down in 2009 after being added to the 40-man. I don’t think an option was used for him that year. That would mean that he still has 2 option years remaining, which gives the team a lot of flexibility.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6490 Todd Boss Sun, 18 Nov 2012 16:07:46 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6490 Totally agree. And, after writing what I wrote here I read a quote from Davey Johnson saying something along the lines of, "Henry was my best pitcher in spring training." So maybe his collapse was entirely injury related. He was pretty <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=rodrihe03&t=p&year=" rel="nofollow">lights out in April</a> before blowing in in May. Of course, small sample sizes, especially with relievers, make it really tough to pass judgement in this say. You throw a third of an inning, give up a run and you've got a 27.00 ERA. Rizzo has been slow sometimes to pull the plug on a mistake (Matt Stairs), but fast other times (Brad Lidge). If H-Rod starts crapping the bed yet again in 2013, which way will Rizzo go? Totally agree. And, after writing what I wrote here I read a quote from Davey Johnson saying something along the lines of, “Henry was my best pitcher in spring training.” So maybe his collapse was entirely injury related. He was pretty lights out in April before blowing in in May. Of course, small sample sizes, especially with relievers, make it really tough to pass judgement in this say. You throw a third of an inning, give up a run and you’ve got a 27.00 ERA.

Rizzo has been slow sometimes to pull the plug on a mistake (Matt Stairs), but fast other times (Brad Lidge). If H-Rod starts crapping the bed yet again in 2013, which way will Rizzo go?

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6489 Todd Boss Sun, 18 Nov 2012 16:03:23 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6489 Thanks for the kind words! I love talking shop and arguing about the Nats. Possible moves for next year: I agree with the old adage that you "constantly have to improve." I don't think you can stand pat; even if you think your team is perfect, it can always be improved. Right now you can look at our 98 win team and still identify areas where we could improve. Its fun to try to match up FA targets like all the baseball columnists do, but honestly Rizzo seems more likely to pull off another trade right now, which can come from anywhere. The logical starting point is to see who may be trading away starting pitching, and 3 teams come to mind; Tampa, Arizona and Oakland. Would it surprise anyone to see another deal with Billy Beane to acquire someone like Brett Anderson or Dan Straily? I'd love a move like that, instead of spending the farm on Greinke or Sanchez. Thanks for the kind words! I love talking shop and arguing about the Nats. Possible moves for next year: I agree with the old adage that you “constantly have to improve.” I don’t think you can stand pat; even if you think your team is perfect, it can always be improved. Right now you can look at our 98 win team and still identify areas where we could improve. Its fun to try to match up FA targets like all the baseball columnists do, but honestly Rizzo seems more likely to pull off another trade right now, which can come from anywhere. The logical starting point is to see who may be trading away starting pitching, and 3 teams come to mind; Tampa, Arizona and Oakland. Would it surprise anyone to see another deal with Billy Beane to acquire someone like Brett Anderson or Dan Straily? I’d love a move like that, instead of spending the farm on Greinke or Sanchez.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6488 Todd Boss Sun, 18 Nov 2012 15:53:44 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6488 I'm glad you got a new puppy. My heart went out to you when hearing the news about your previous little guy. We have two labs ourselves and I just can't imagine losing one of them right now. Here's a shot of our two labs, from my <a href="http://www.fittobetan.com/wp-content/uploads/studio-tour-4.jpg" rel="nofollow">wife's business website</a>. I’m glad you got a new puppy. My heart went out to you when hearing the news about your previous little guy. We have two labs ourselves and I just can’t imagine losing one of them right now. Here’s a shot of our two labs, from my wife’s business website.

]]> By: John C. http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6466 John C. Sat, 17 Nov 2012 17:03:33 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6466 Davey Johnson is a big fan of Henry Rodriguez, FWIW. Between that and the fact that Rizzo has some investment in him, I don't see him DFA'd just yet. Davey Johnson is a big fan of Henry Rodriguez, FWIW. Between that and the fact that Rizzo has some investment in him, I don’t see him DFA’d just yet.

]]> By: SlowPitch63 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047&cpage=1#comment-6465 SlowPitch63 Sat, 17 Nov 2012 16:50:39 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5047#comment-6465 Thank you so much for the service you provide. Because of my qwerky schedule I seldom access in time to make germane comments so I just read and move on. You have probably proivided the key decision variable for this off-season's activities, along with the budget, of course. With our old GM I knew that I could come up with better decisions, but with Mike Rizzo, praise be to your favorite diety that we have him, this allows me to try to anticipate what he might do, but after Gio last year I am out of my depth. We can do nothing and be the best, but with another Rizzo coup we could DOMINATE. How fun. Let's Play Two! Thank you so much for the service you provide. Because of my qwerky schedule I seldom access in time to make germane comments so I just read and move on.
You have probably proivided the key decision variable for this off-season’s activities, along with the budget, of course.
With our old GM I knew that I could come up with better decisions, but with Mike Rizzo, praise be to your favorite diety that we have him, this allows me to try to anticipate what he might do, but after Gio last year I am out of my depth.
We can do nothing and be the best, but with another Rizzo coup we could DOMINATE.
How fun.
Let’s Play Two!

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