Comments on: Duke, Bray signings: excellent, under the radar moves for Rizzo http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390 "... the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.” -- Earl Weaver Sat, 25 May 2013 20:28:52 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6944 Todd Boss Tue, 04 Dec 2012 20:45:44 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6944 Just posted new post about Haren specifically... Just posted new post about Haren specifically…

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6943 Todd Boss Tue, 04 Dec 2012 20:31:57 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6943 I agree, having also just seen that report. It looks like the Angels decided to try to save a buck or two by buying out his $15M option and then signing him for lower money. Perhaps they were trying to leverage his injury plagued season in 2012 and get him for lower money for a 2 year deal, and he called their bluff. Instead, he pulls a classic "build FA value" move and signs a one-year deal with an NL club where he'll have better numbers by default than he would for an AL club b/c he faces pitchers and slightly weaker lineups. I love this deal (damn, i'm going to just have to post my blog post on the subject). I agree, having also just seen that report. It looks like the Angels decided to try to save a buck or two by buying out his $15M option and then signing him for lower money. Perhaps they were trying to leverage his injury plagued season in 2012 and get him for lower money for a 2 year deal, and he called their bluff.

Instead, he pulls a classic “build FA value” move and signs a one-year deal with an NL club where he’ll have better numbers by default than he would for an AL club b/c he faces pitchers and slightly weaker lineups.

I love this deal (damn, i’m going to just have to post my blog post on the subject).

]]> By: PDowdy http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6942 PDowdy Tue, 04 Dec 2012 20:00:14 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6942 I think it says a lot that reports are coming out now that say the Angels were still in on him and offered 2 years. They would know the most about his medical records and if they were still interested then I feel pretty good about it. Even if he is only able to give us a version of Tim Hudson's performance last season (25 starts or so and 175 innings with a mid 3.00 ERA) this will be a good signing. As much as I like james Shields as a fit for the Nationals there is no difference between the two if Haren is healthy. This costs nothing but a bit more than Jackson got last season to fill the same role. I think it says a lot that reports are coming out now that say the Angels were still in on him and offered 2 years. They would know the most about his medical records and if they were still interested then I feel pretty good about it.

Even if he is only able to give us a version of Tim Hudson’s performance last season (25 starts or so and 175 innings with a mid 3.00 ERA) this will be a good signing. As much as I like james Shields as a fit for the Nationals there is no difference between the two if Haren is healthy. This costs nothing but a bit more than Jackson got last season to fill the same role.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6940 Todd Boss Tue, 04 Dec 2012 19:31:31 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6940 I have read baseball pundits say often: "there is never a bad one-year deal." If the team balks at his reportedly bad hip, they can still cancel this signing. I've read some critics who point out his 2012 numbers and drop in velocity, but clearly his back was bugging him all year. I can barely get out of a chair when my back is aching; he still managed to throw 176 innings. I'm guessing he'll be more than fine for us. I have read baseball pundits say often: “there is never a bad one-year deal.” If the team balks at his reportedly bad hip, they can still cancel this signing. I’ve read some critics who point out his 2012 numbers and drop in velocity, but clearly his back was bugging him all year. I can barely get out of a chair when my back is aching; he still managed to throw 176 innings. I’m guessing he’ll be more than fine for us.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6938 Todd Boss Tue, 04 Dec 2012 19:29:55 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6938 Yes, believe it was Harper who very ably posted the concerns about Garcia; never pitched more than 112 innings in his pro career, two TJs plus a knee surgery. But, what do the Nats need more right now? Another right handed reliever or starting pitching depth? Clearly the answer is B. Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen and Henry Rodriguez right now all set for 2013 MLB bullpen, to now be paired with Duke and then perhaps one more lefty-to-be-named (Bill Bray?). There's no room for Garcia in there. But if one of our big five starters go down? Ugh. AAA starters to take his place are scary. Here's my <a href="http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=4472" rel="nofollow">very-early predictions for AAA's rotation</a> next year: Roark, Maya, Broderick, Meyers, Perry. Now perhaps Garcia too, probably replacing Roark and pushing him to the bullpen. Who among that 5 would you trust to come up and give starts? Maybe the real answer is that Duke becomes the 5th starter for any injury and only if two guys go down do we dip into this pool. Yes, believe it was Harper who very ably posted the concerns about Garcia; never pitched more than 112 innings in his pro career, two TJs plus a knee surgery.

But, what do the Nats need more right now? Another right handed reliever or starting pitching depth? Clearly the answer is B. Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen and Henry Rodriguez right now all set for 2013 MLB bullpen, to now be paired with Duke and then perhaps one more lefty-to-be-named (Bill Bray?). There’s no room for Garcia in there. But if one of our big five starters go down? Ugh. AAA starters to take his place are scary. Here’s my very-early predictions for AAA’s rotation next year: Roark, Maya, Broderick, Meyers, Perry. Now perhaps Garcia too, probably replacing Roark and pushing him to the bullpen. Who among that 5 would you trust to come up and give starts? Maybe the real answer is that Duke becomes the 5th starter for any injury and only if two guys go down do we dip into this pool.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6936 Todd Boss Tue, 04 Dec 2012 19:24:30 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6936 Maybe Gorzelanny is still in the mix? They still need (want?) one more lefty reliever; had 3 last year and right now only have one. Post coming up on Haren. I'll have to re-do my salary worksheet now :-) Maybe Gorzelanny is still in the mix? They still need (want?) one more lefty reliever; had 3 last year and right now only have one.

Post coming up on Haren. I’ll have to re-do my salary worksheet now :-)

]]> By: PDowdy http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6929 PDowdy Tue, 04 Dec 2012 17:14:04 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6929 I really like the Haren deal. Low (money only) risk and potential high upside. Haren made his last 13 starts last season AFTER coming off the DL and pitched very effectively. I'm not saying the injury isn't a risk but even if he isn't 2011 Haren he should be a really solid #5 starter. Considering it is a 1 year deal there is also nothing preventing the team from going out at the deadline and acquiring a replacement if he doesn't get hurt. I really like the Haren deal. Low (money only) risk and potential high upside. Haren made his last 13 starts last season AFTER coming off the DL and pitched very effectively. I’m not saying the injury isn’t a risk but even if he isn’t 2011 Haren he should be a really solid #5 starter. Considering it is a 1 year deal there is also nothing preventing the team from going out at the deadline and acquiring a replacement if he doesn’t get hurt.

]]> By: Wally http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6927 Wally Tue, 04 Dec 2012 16:39:36 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6927 Garcia as starter: my take is that it is an experiment to create some SP depth in case of injury, not a serious thing. Someone (Harper maybe?) blogged that he is a very high injury risk because of his past, and that he would ride him hard in the BP until he breaks. I think that is where I come out. Injury risks are always the hardest thing for me to gauge; I really have no idea how to think about them. Garcia as starter: my take is that it is an experiment to create some SP depth in case of injury, not a serious thing. Someone (Harper maybe?) blogged that he is a very high injury risk because of his past, and that he would ride him hard in the BP until he breaks. I think that is where I come out.

Injury risks are always the hardest thing for me to gauge; I really have no idea how to think about them.

]]> By: Wally http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390&cpage=1#comment-6926 Wally Tue, 04 Dec 2012 16:36:47 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5390#comment-6926 "I don’t think I like Duke as much as Gorzelanny, but at the likely price (terms were not announced but I’d be shocked if this was for much more than a $1.5M deal) ..." - yeah, this definitely seems like their logic, but I am not sure that I like the move. I also like Gorzy better; he has been through some wars with us, and proven himself. For a team where the Nats are on the win-curve, I don't really want them skimping pennies at this level, especially on a 1 year deal. Even if this costs just 1 win next year, it could be very damaging. That being said, I can't get too worked up about it. So there goes Greinke: Haren at 1/$13m. I expect everyone will choke on the price and health (especially since the Cubs passed), but per your last post, it fits their payroll profile perfectly. Hopefully he is healthy, I have always liked him a lot when healthy. “I don’t think I like Duke as much as Gorzelanny, but at the likely price (terms were not announced but I’d be shocked if this was for much more than a $1.5M deal) …” – yeah, this definitely seems like their logic, but I am not sure that I like the move. I also like Gorzy better; he has been through some wars with us, and proven himself. For a team where the Nats are on the win-curve, I don’t really want them skimping pennies at this level, especially on a 1 year deal. Even if this costs just 1 win next year, it could be very damaging. That being said, I can’t get too worked up about it.

So there goes Greinke: Haren at 1/$13m. I expect everyone will choke on the price and health (especially since the Cubs passed), but per your last post, it fits their payroll profile perfectly. Hopefully he is healthy, I have always liked him a lot when healthy.

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