Comments on: Dan Haren; another excellent signing

By: Todd Boss

Todd Boss — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 15:02:45 +0000

I don’t see Haren deal implying an Espinosa trade directly. I mean, Espinosa is still pre-arbitration so he’s incredibly cheap and thus has negligible payroll impact. I do see Haren deal eventually leading to Morse’s exit, so as to save his $6.75M payroll in 2013 (I’m assuming we’re resigning LaRoche, despite the 2yr/3yr hang up. I mean honestly, the guy’s only 32 … a 3 year deal isn’t that bad. Make it a 2yr plus an option based on PAs or homers or some bs).

I honestly can argue both sides for Espinosa.
Side A: Espinosa is a SS by trade, therefore surplus to our requirements and he has value being shopped as a plus defense/fantastic arm SS with 20 homer power, despite his K rate. We’re wasting him by playing him at 2nd, since we have cover for the position plus prospects on the rise. I think we move him for prospects to help rebuild our depleted farm system, put the able Lombardozzi there in 2013, find a utility infielder in Rule 5/FA market and there’s your team. Rendon may be ready in mid 2013, ready to start in 2014 and the team needs to keep its options open for a guy who was a 1-1 talent.

Side B: Espinosa is entering his 3rd full season, which is the same season that Desmond went from an 80 OPS+ player to a 126 OPS+ player. We need to keep the nucleus together, need to give Espinosa one more season to “figure it out,” and we will be rewarded for it. The team has showed patience before, and flipping Espinosa would be impatient and could be a move we regret if he turns into the second coming of Chase Utley.

I tend to favor Side A, moving him now frankly.

By: Todd Boss

Todd Boss — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 14:51:12 +0000

I think the most indefensible contract so far this off-season has to be the Guthrie deal. 3yrs/$25M for a guy with worse career numbers than John Lannan. I heard a podcast with someone bitching about Dayton Moore and using this as just one more example of how bad he is at his job. Teaser: I’m working on a GM rankings post to talk about just this topic.

Boston always gets passes on FA deals though, since they’re routinely #2 or #3 in total payroll and everyone expects them to have a $175M payroll. $3/39 for victorino doesn’t sound *awful* … but yeah its an overpay. But lets be honest; isn’t EVERY contract we’re seeing considered an overpay right now? I think the new TV monies pouring into the game are going to make the players much richer, and contracts that we think are overpays now will look like underpays in 5 year’s time.

By: bdrube

bdrube — Wed, 05 Dec 2012 01:00:37 +0000

I also love the Haren signing since it puts the Nats in the discussion for having the best rotation in baseball.

I’m NOT, however, really down with trading Danny E as a result. The only way I would have been content to see him go would have been in a deal for a front line starter like James Shields. Since that didn’t happen, we need to give Danny that third year like Ian last year to see if he can reach his potential. If so, we then have a fantastic all-All Star middle infield. On the other hand if he remains about what he is now, trade him next offseason and then make Rendon the heir apparent.

By: Mark L

Mark L — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 23:26:58 +0000

It’s a hard and fast rule, the money isn’t the killer, it’s the years.
Just to make the Nats look smart, the Red Sox just paid 3 yrs. $39 mil to Victorino, who’s not even an average player anymore. Dumb.

By: Wally

Wally — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 23:05:13 +0000

Man, if he is healthy, this could be awesome. In his prime, this guy was a #2 on a contender. He probably is a little past his prime but if healthy, he should still be a top 40 pitcher. And you are right, it is only dollars in a year their payroll can handle it (and, if he does well and leaves, presumably we tender him and get a pick).

I guess that I agree, bring back ALR and flip Morse for prospects. But it is ok if Morse stays and plays 1B too. I’d keep Espy now though. If they had flipped him for a pitcher, ok but no need now.

By: Todd Boss

Todd Boss — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 21:41:06 +0000

Hey, its not my (or your) money. Given the choice of spending money and trying to win and not spending it and not having as good a chance to win? I think we’d all go win now.

Reportedly Tampa is “exceedingly difficult” to trade with. For as shrewd as their front office is, it seems they equally over-value their own players. A quick peek at the trade partners page at b-r.com shows just how few trades Tampa actually pulls off:

I can still see both Espinosa and Morse being moved, except now for prospects and not someone like James Shields. I think the team can use lombardozzi as a stop-gap at 2nd until Rendon is ready, and I think the team would rather jump up payroll a bit more w/ LaRoche instead of installing Morse at first. Both these trades can help supplement our barren farm system and I’d be onboard.

Rule 5 draft; I can see us taking a flier on both a left handed reliever and a middle infielder. But we’ll see. We may just stand pat.

By: Mark L

Mark L — Tue, 04 Dec 2012 21:31:32 +0000

I agree with you, this is is a terrific signing. Potentially throwing money out the window but with a very high upside.
As much of airheaded move the Span trade was, this is smart baseball. Starting the offseason I thought there would be a trade with Tampa Bay for a pitcher, but with Meyer gone there just wasn’t much left to trade in the minors and we’d be looking at losing Espinosa & Morse to get something done.

Next up — the Rule V Draft