Comments on: 2013 Rotation Rankings; Ranked 1-30 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447 "... the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.” -- Earl Weaver Sun, 19 May 2013 00:43:17 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447&cpage=1#comment-7793 Todd Boss Tue, 08 Jan 2013 18:57:04 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447#comment-7793 Thanks man. Speaking of SF: I have a long-time "in draft mode" blog post that tries to rank GMs. The Giants have won 2 WS in 3 years, yet there are still stubborn know-it-all bloggers who think Brian Sabean is a poor GM. They say this because he signed Zito to that contract, and because he signed Aubrey Huff, and because they traded away a big-time starting pitching prospect for Carlos Beltran. All the while ..... the team keeps winning titles! Isn't that the freaking goal of the game? Brian Sabean is the BEST GM in the game based on the ultimate goal of the sport. I admit I was probably bearish on Oakland. They get the same kind of bad rap that SF gets. I thought Oakland was going to lose 110 games; all they did was beat out the supposed AL favorites for the division title. Underestimate them at your peril. I'll also admit; once i got into the mid 20s of rotations I kind of ran out of gas. I just don't know many of these players. I've tried to find ways to make the Pirates better, perhaps I underrated their rotation. Cole (and a slew of other prospects they have coming up) will really inject some life into that franchise; too bad they couldn't Sign Appel last summer to go on top. Thanks man. Speaking of SF: I have a long-time “in draft mode” blog post that tries to rank GMs. The Giants have won 2 WS in 3 years, yet there are still stubborn know-it-all bloggers who think Brian Sabean is a poor GM. They say this because he signed Zito to that contract, and because he signed Aubrey Huff, and because they traded away a big-time starting pitching prospect for Carlos Beltran. All the while ….. the team keeps winning titles! Isn’t that the freaking goal of the game? Brian Sabean is the BEST GM in the game based on the ultimate goal of the sport.

I admit I was probably bearish on Oakland. They get the same kind of bad rap that SF gets. I thought Oakland was going to lose 110 games; all they did was beat out the supposed AL favorites for the division title. Underestimate them at your peril.

I’ll also admit; once i got into the mid 20s of rotations I kind of ran out of gas. I just don’t know many of these players. I’ve tried to find ways to make the Pirates better, perhaps I underrated their rotation. Cole (and a slew of other prospects they have coming up) will really inject some life into that franchise; too bad they couldn’t Sign Appel last summer to go on top.

]]> By: Tegwar http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447&cpage=1#comment-7791 Tegwar Tue, 08 Jan 2013 15:36:50 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447#comment-7791 Really nice professional work Todd. I agree with just about everything you wrote especially when you explained your premiss for how you rated them. My work takes me out to the SF Bay area at least twice a year so I've followed the Giants and to a lesser extent the A's since 2000. I think your assessment of both clubs is spot on. I was amused when I saw on ESPN, the Giants failed to make the top 10 rated teams. I guess winning 2 of the last 3 WS doesn't get you any respect. I do think that maybe the Pirates, yea the Pirates might have a little better pitching staff this year I like McDonald, I saw him pitch twice last year once in DC, (had a no hitter going into the 6th with 11 K's in 5.2 innings if I remember correctly), and once at PNC, which is well worth the drive to go see a game at. The Pirates are also fast tracking Gerrit Cole to the majors, single A to AAA last year. As to whether this will mean more wins its hard to say we are after all talking about the Pirates ;-). Really nice professional work Todd.

I agree with just about everything you wrote especially when you explained your premiss for how you rated them.

My work takes me out to the SF Bay area at least twice a year so I’ve followed the Giants and to a lesser extent the A’s since 2000. I think your assessment of both clubs is spot on.

I was amused when I saw on ESPN, the Giants failed to make the top 10 rated teams. I guess winning 2 of the last 3 WS doesn’t get you any respect.

I do think that maybe the Pirates, yea the Pirates might have a little better pitching staff this year I like McDonald, I saw him pitch twice last year once in DC, (had a no hitter going into the 6th with 11 K’s in 5.2 innings if I remember correctly), and once at PNC, which is well worth the drive to go see a game at.

The Pirates are also fast tracking Gerrit Cole to the majors, single A to AAA last year. As to whether this will mean more wins its hard to say we are after all talking about the Pirates ;-) .

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447&cpage=1#comment-7790 Todd Boss Tue, 08 Jan 2013 14:45:05 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447#comment-7790 I will admit, this post turned out to be far more effort than it should have been. But it definitely highlighted for me how little I know of some of the AL rotations. I don't do this for a living, so I'm not that concerned ... but I admittedly may be underrating some AL teams simply because I just don't follow them. In terms of depth, Washington could be in serious trouble if one of their 5 starters goes down. As could Cincinnati. Another team that could have issues? San Francisco. I don't see anybody from their 2012 AAA team who could provide legitimate cover if one of their 5 guys goes down. I will admit, this post turned out to be far more effort than it should have been. But it definitely highlighted for me how little I know of some of the AL rotations. I don’t do this for a living, so I’m not that concerned … but I admittedly may be underrating some AL teams simply because I just don’t follow them.

In terms of depth, Washington could be in serious trouble if one of their 5 starters goes down. As could Cincinnati. Another team that could have issues? San Francisco. I don’t see anybody from their 2012 AAA team who could provide legitimate cover if one of their 5 guys goes down.

]]> By: Mark L http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447&cpage=1#comment-7775 Mark L Tue, 08 Jan 2013 00:01:29 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447#comment-7775 I have a few quibbles, but really nothing more than that as this is great stuff for a cold Hot Stove month. More power to you for such an undertaking. You're right to include some depth issues as pitchers break down; that's what they do. Last year, the Nats & Cincinnati both were virtually injury free and you just have to think that's not going to continue through all of 2013. If you start thinking about who teams have to replace the injured you have to put St. Louis at #1-2, as they have 4 (count'em 4) pitchers knocking at the door and ready to jump in and contribute right away. I have a few quibbles, but really nothing more than that as this is great stuff for a cold Hot Stove month. More power to you for such an undertaking.

You’re right to include some depth issues as pitchers break down; that’s what they do. Last year, the Nats & Cincinnati both were virtually injury free and you just have to think that’s not going to continue through all of 2013.

If you start thinking about who teams have to replace the injured you have to put St. Louis at #1-2, as they have 4 (count’em 4) pitchers knocking at the door and ready to jump in and contribute right away.

]]> By: Wally http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447&cpage=1#comment-7772 Wally Mon, 07 Jan 2013 22:14:40 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447#comment-7772 I think 3-4 years of control would probably be enough for me, as a GM, so I'd still stick with WAS, but it is close. plus DET will in all likelihood extend Verlander, making them a solid chce. But STL rivals WAS as an organization set up to be good for the foreseeable future. Strong line up and staff, plus probably a consensus top 5 farm system with studs like Tavares ready to join the big club, replacing their old guys like Beltran. I think 3-4 years of control would probably be enough for me, as a GM, so I’d still stick with WAS, but it is close. plus DET will in all likelihood extend Verlander, making them a solid chce.

But STL rivals WAS as an organization set up to be good for the foreseeable future. Strong line up and staff, plus probably a consensus top 5 farm system with studs like Tavares ready to join the big club, replacing their old guys like Beltran.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447&cpage=1#comment-7770 Todd Boss Mon, 07 Jan 2013 18:56:54 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447#comment-7770 2nd part; great question. If I was ranking on both existing 1-5 quality AND depth, the rankings would be different. I'd probably have St Louis and Tampa at the top because of the depth of hard throwing studs they have. STL's has their 5, plus Kelly, Miller and Rosenthal. Tampa has their 5 plus Archer plus the two arms they just got from KC. Wash and Detr both are young and controlled as you say, but after each team's #5 starter you fall off badly, so for me as a longer-term GM i'd prefer a lesser top5 now but more depth for the next few years. Maybe that's crazy considering that Washington has 4 of its 5 locked up for at least 3 more seasons ... is that long-term enough? Probably. Other deep pitching teams: LAD has too many arms, and their depth isn't necessarily that good. Texas? I like their young arms potential but not the execution so far. Atlanta *should* be higher on this ranking but their upper-end arm prospects don't seem to be panning out right now. Imagine if Tehran and Delgado had matriculated like rookie of the year potentials they were supposed to be; that'd be an awesome rotation. 2nd part; great question. If I was ranking on both existing 1-5 quality AND depth, the rankings would be different. I’d probably have St Louis and Tampa at the top because of the depth of hard throwing studs they have. STL’s has their 5, plus Kelly, Miller and Rosenthal. Tampa has their 5 plus Archer plus the two arms they just got from KC. Wash and Detr both are young and controlled as you say, but after each team’s #5 starter you fall off badly, so for me as a longer-term GM i’d prefer a lesser top5 now but more depth for the next few years. Maybe that’s crazy considering that Washington has 4 of its 5 locked up for at least 3 more seasons … is that long-term enough? Probably.

Other deep pitching teams: LAD has too many arms, and their depth isn’t necessarily that good. Texas? I like their young arms potential but not the execution so far. Atlanta *should* be higher on this ranking but their upper-end arm prospects don’t seem to be panning out right now. Imagine if Tehran and Delgado had matriculated like rookie of the year potentials they were supposed to be; that’d be an awesome rotation.

]]> By: Todd Boss http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447&cpage=1#comment-7769 Todd Boss Mon, 07 Jan 2013 18:50:06 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447#comment-7769 Ranking the top 8 rotations was really, really tough. I constantly was fiddling with them, moving teams up and down. At various points I had 5 different teams in the top 2 that ended up lower. Like I said in the piece, SF is the toughest; if Lincecum returns to Cy Young form they're #1 for me. But something tells me he isn't. I had LA way lower to begin with but really jumped them up when they got Greinke. I think Grienke in the NL, in that big park and playing lots of games in other big parks of the NL West is going to be pretty dominant. I also think Beckett is going to pitch similarly to how he pitched last season in LA: 131 ERA+. That's a pretty good 1-2-3. I also had STL and Cincy in top 5 when I started; I think I had STL as high as #2. But i'm worried about Carpenter and Garcia, which knocked them down for me. Cincy just doesn't impress me for some reason. I think Latos is overrated. Texas; Darvish is great obviously and i'm probably underrating Harrison. The rest of that rotation are such massive question marks; I love Ogando but can he be effective as a starter again? Is Felix healthy? When is Lewis coming back? If they were to add Lohse to the equation (which I think they will), they move up significantly. Ranking the top 8 rotations was really, really tough. I constantly was fiddling with them, moving teams up and down. At various points I had 5 different teams in the top 2 that ended up lower. Like I said in the piece, SF is the toughest; if Lincecum returns to Cy Young form they’re #1 for me. But something tells me he isn’t.

I had LA way lower to begin with but really jumped them up when they got Greinke. I think Grienke in the NL, in that big park and playing lots of games in other big parks of the NL West is going to be pretty dominant. I also think Beckett is going to pitch similarly to how he pitched last season in LA: 131 ERA+. That’s a pretty good 1-2-3.

I also had STL and Cincy in top 5 when I started; I think I had STL as high as #2. But i’m worried about Carpenter and Garcia, which knocked them down for me. Cincy just doesn’t impress me for some reason. I think Latos is overrated. Texas; Darvish is great obviously and i’m probably underrating Harrison. The rest of that rotation are such massive question marks; I love Ogando but can he be effective as a starter again? Is Felix healthy? When is Lewis coming back? If they were to add Lohse to the equation (which I think they will), they move up significantly.

]]> By: Wally http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447&cpage=1#comment-7768 Wally Mon, 07 Jan 2013 18:17:14 +0000 http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5447#comment-7768 Todd - lot's of good stuff here. I think that I see it very similarly to you, given your rules (only evaluate the top 5). WAS and DET are essentially tied for me. I had only a few quibbles, like I think LAD are too high (because I do not think Beckett is more than a 2 WAR pitcher any more). I think that LAD probably has the top 1/2 punch, but a huge drop off after that, unless Billingsley rebounds all the way back. And STL, CIN and TEX are maybe a few notches higher, for me. So let me ask you a slightly different question: if you are a GM starting a team and have to balance the short term/long term conflict, and you can pick any team's current rotation including 6,7 and 8 SPs, is this the order you'd choose? For me, I probably still choose WAS or DET #1 because of the youth and years of control of 1-4, but then I'd probably go TAM, STL and TEX. Todd – lot’s of good stuff here. I think that I see it very similarly to you, given your rules (only evaluate the top 5). WAS and DET are essentially tied for me. I had only a few quibbles, like I think LAD are too high (because I do not think Beckett is more than a 2 WAR pitcher any more). I think that LAD probably has the top 1/2 punch, but a huge drop off after that, unless Billingsley rebounds all the way back. And STL, CIN and TEX are maybe a few notches higher, for me.

So let me ask you a slightly different question: if you are a GM starting a team and have to balance the short term/long term conflict, and you can pick any team’s current rotation including 6,7 and 8 SPs, is this the order you’d choose? For me, I probably still choose WAS or DET #1 because of the youth and years of control of 1-4, but then I’d probably go TAM, STL and TEX.

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