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	<title>Comments on: Trevor Bauer Trade; what happened?</title>
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	<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493</link>
	<description>&#34;... the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.”  -- Earl Weaver</description>
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		<title>By: Todd Boss</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493&#038;cpage=1#comment-7320</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Boss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Dec 2012 16:01:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493#comment-7320</guid>
		<description>I know the economic definition of &quot;sunk cost&quot; means that the moment the money is out the door, its out the door.  But the economics of baseball don&#039;t entirely work like Economics 101.  The opportunity cost of losing a first round drafted player in the modern baseball landscape is huge.  Trading Bauer so soon is pretty severe indictment of the management&#039;s decision to take him in the first place.  In this case, it isn&#039;t so much about the amount of the money paid, its the fact that there are severe bonus limits in baseball now, and Arizona had to purposely pay other players less (and thus acquiring lesser players) so they could pay Bauer more, meaning that their entire draft was affected by this decision.  By virtue of this move, I believe management there has admitted a complete failure in terms of player evaluation and their 2012 draft.  For the money and draft position they got Bauer in, there were literally dozens of other high 1st round potential talents they could have taken.  That&#039;s the real problem here.  

When Bowden drafted but did not sign Aaron Crow, most people just remember now that we took Drew Storen with the supplemental pick the following year.  As it turned out, the team wasn&#039;t really &quot;hurt&quot; by the loss of a year&#039;s development time for a top end starting pitcher.  But that lost opportunity cost is still there.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I know the economic definition of &#8220;sunk cost&#8221; means that the moment the money is out the door, its out the door.  But the economics of baseball don&#8217;t entirely work like Economics 101.  The opportunity cost of losing a first round drafted player in the modern baseball landscape is huge.  Trading Bauer so soon is pretty severe indictment of the management&#8217;s decision to take him in the first place.  In this case, it isn&#8217;t so much about the amount of the money paid, its the fact that there are severe bonus limits in baseball now, and Arizona had to purposely pay other players less (and thus acquiring lesser players) so they could pay Bauer more, meaning that their entire draft was affected by this decision.  By virtue of this move, I believe management there has admitted a complete failure in terms of player evaluation and their 2012 draft.  For the money and draft position they got Bauer in, there were literally dozens of other high 1st round potential talents they could have taken.  That&#8217;s the real problem here.  </p>
<p>When Bowden drafted but did not sign Aaron Crow, most people just remember now that we took Drew Storen with the supplemental pick the following year.  As it turned out, the team wasn&#8217;t really &#8220;hurt&#8221; by the loss of a year&#8217;s development time for a top end starting pitcher.  But that lost opportunity cost is still there.</p>
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		<title>By: Eugene in Oregon</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493&#038;cpage=1#comment-7319</link>
		<dc:creator>Eugene in Oregon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Dec 2012 15:16:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493#comment-7319</guid>
		<description>Minor point:  The bonus money you mention was, indeed, a &#039;sunk cost&#039; -- it didn&#039;t matter how far into his career he was/wasn&#039;t, so long as the team had already made the payment/obligation.  Setting all the other arguments/issues aside for a moment, if the team felt that Trevor Bauer wasn&#039;t worth they money they were obligated to pay him in the future -- without regard regard to money paid in the past -- then they made the right call.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Minor point:  The bonus money you mention was, indeed, a &#8217;sunk cost&#8217; &#8212; it didn&#8217;t matter how far into his career he was/wasn&#8217;t, so long as the team had already made the payment/obligation.  Setting all the other arguments/issues aside for a moment, if the team felt that Trevor Bauer wasn&#8217;t worth they money they were obligated to pay him in the future &#8212; without regard regard to money paid in the past &#8212; then they made the right call.</p>
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		<title>By: Todd Boss</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493&#038;cpage=1#comment-7297</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Boss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Dec 2012 20:03:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493#comment-7297</guid>
		<description>It absolutely can be both.  But Bauer didn&#039;t have enough time to get enough on-the-field accomplishments to &quot;allow him&quot; to be an a-hole in the clubhouse right?  Clemens could be difficult because he had all the Cy Young&#039;s.  Bauer has 4 MLB starts.  

I&#039;m trying to think of an example of a player in any sport who was so bad in the clubhouse that teams literally ignored his talents and just stayed away.  Perhaps Barry Bonds when his San Francisco contract expired?  He was 42, had just come off a season where he had a 169 OPS+, and I&#039;m positive he could have contributed as a DH somewhere.  But not one offer came his way.  Maybe Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (nee Chris Jackson), who seemed to earn his way out of the NBA by virtue of the whole National Anthem controversy?  Terrell Owens and/or Chad Ocho Cinco Johnson right now (probably not since they&#039;re both too old to be effective in the NFL)?

Rizzo certainly has learned to keep his mouth shut.  I supported the Hanrahan deal; despite his numbers in Pittsburgh I never felt he was going to do that here.  Classic &quot;needs a change of scenery&quot; guy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It absolutely can be both.  But Bauer didn&#8217;t have enough time to get enough on-the-field accomplishments to &#8220;allow him&#8221; to be an a-hole in the clubhouse right?  Clemens could be difficult because he had all the Cy Young&#8217;s.  Bauer has 4 MLB starts.  </p>
<p>I&#8217;m trying to think of an example of a player in any sport who was so bad in the clubhouse that teams literally ignored his talents and just stayed away.  Perhaps Barry Bonds when his San Francisco contract expired?  He was 42, had just come off a season where he had a 169 OPS+, and I&#8217;m positive he could have contributed as a DH somewhere.  But not one offer came his way.  Maybe Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (nee Chris Jackson), who seemed to earn his way out of the NBA by virtue of the whole National Anthem controversy?  Terrell Owens and/or Chad Ocho Cinco Johnson right now (probably not since they&#8217;re both too old to be effective in the NFL)?</p>
<p>Rizzo certainly has learned to keep his mouth shut.  I supported the Hanrahan deal; despite his numbers in Pittsburgh I never felt he was going to do that here.  Classic &#8220;needs a change of scenery&#8221; guy.</p>
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		<title>By: Wally</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493&#038;cpage=1#comment-7296</link>
		<dc:creator>Wally</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Dec 2012 18:57:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493#comment-7296</guid>
		<description>Can&#039;t it be both that the player is a jerk and the team is too rigid?  Sure, Bauer may be a jerk, but I think teams have a broad tolerance for players, especially SPs, who are jerk but perform well.  Clemens, whatever you think of his PED use notwithstanding, is definitely an A-hole.  It just seems very hard to believe that he was a good teammate beyond his on-field contributions.  So, the more that I think about it, I don&#039;t think that Arizona feels that he will ultimately be very successful.

As an aside, the rigidity that I mentioned about Arizona&#039;s thinking?: for a while I worried that Rizzo had the same outlook (and isn&#039;t it interesting that he came out of Arizona).  That phase where he was cutting guys because he &#039;didn&#039;t like his aura&#039; or &#039;I got tired of watching him pitch&#039;, plus what seemed like a pure dumping of Hanrahan following some awful relief appearances had me worried.  But it does seem like he matured from that, and ironically I think the Hanrahan trade may have been part of the reason.  I think that he felt like he gave up on him too soon.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can&#8217;t it be both that the player is a jerk and the team is too rigid?  Sure, Bauer may be a jerk, but I think teams have a broad tolerance for players, especially SPs, who are jerk but perform well.  Clemens, whatever you think of his PED use notwithstanding, is definitely an A-hole.  It just seems very hard to believe that he was a good teammate beyond his on-field contributions.  So, the more that I think about it, I don&#8217;t think that Arizona feels that he will ultimately be very successful.</p>
<p>As an aside, the rigidity that I mentioned about Arizona&#8217;s thinking?: for a while I worried that Rizzo had the same outlook (and isn&#8217;t it interesting that he came out of Arizona).  That phase where he was cutting guys because he &#8216;didn&#8217;t like his aura&#8217; or &#8216;I got tired of watching him pitch&#8217;, plus what seemed like a pure dumping of Hanrahan following some awful relief appearances had me worried.  But it does seem like he matured from that, and ironically I think the Hanrahan trade may have been part of the reason.  I think that he felt like he gave up on him too soon.</p>
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		<title>By: Todd Boss</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493&#038;cpage=1#comment-7295</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Boss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Dec 2012 18:44:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493#comment-7295</guid>
		<description>The Jim Bowden &quot;character reclamation project!&quot;  Elijah Dukes.  Lastings Milledge.  Dmitri Young.  Jose Guillen.  Ahh... thanks for the memories!  :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Jim Bowden &#8220;character reclamation project!&#8221;  Elijah Dukes.  Lastings Milledge.  Dmitri Young.  Jose Guillen.  Ahh&#8230; thanks for the memories!  <img src='http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: bdrube</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493&#038;cpage=1#comment-7294</link>
		<dc:creator>bdrube</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Dec 2012 18:36:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493#comment-7294</guid>
		<description>To make another Jim Bowden comparison, it sounds like the Indians made a classic Jimbo-type &quot;buy low&quot; trade here, difference being that it could pay off spectacularly.  As far as Bauer being a jerk or a cancer...well, winning is the cure for a lot of those ills.  The kid has placed himself in a position where he had better be damn good or he&#039;s going to out on his rear end in relatively short order.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To make another Jim Bowden comparison, it sounds like the Indians made a classic Jimbo-type &#8220;buy low&#8221; trade here, difference being that it could pay off spectacularly.  As far as Bauer being a jerk or a cancer&#8230;well, winning is the cure for a lot of those ills.  The kid has placed himself in a position where he had better be damn good or he&#8217;s going to out on his rear end in relatively short order.</p>
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		<title>By: Todd Boss</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493&#038;cpage=1#comment-7293</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Boss</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Dec 2012 18:08:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493#comment-7293</guid>
		<description>I think you can make arguments pro-Team (if you believe all the rumors I typed up) or pro-Player (if you believe that the combination of on-field management and GM is acting in an antagonistic way).  I&#039;m not sure where I land right now: while I believe a lot of the anti-player comments being made in this situation (there&#039;s just too many things that have popped up to not think where there&#039;s smoke, there&#039;s fire), I also do believe this is a case of a player standing up for what he believes and trying to (as you say) keep his approach from being overy manipulated.

We all know that teams try to change pitchers motions, and that not all teams have the same approach.  It has to be frustrating for a kid to have thrown one way his whole life and then suddenly be asked to make changes by some low-A pitching coach.  

Specific to Bauer; how in the hell does UCLA have the #1 and #3 overall picks (him and Gerrett Cole), both being near-MLB ready starters, and NOT at least reach the CWS that year?  They got beat in the regionals, didn&#039;t even make the super-regionals.  So odd.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think you can make arguments pro-Team (if you believe all the rumors I typed up) or pro-Player (if you believe that the combination of on-field management and GM is acting in an antagonistic way).  I&#8217;m not sure where I land right now: while I believe a lot of the anti-player comments being made in this situation (there&#8217;s just too many things that have popped up to not think where there&#8217;s smoke, there&#8217;s fire), I also do believe this is a case of a player standing up for what he believes and trying to (as you say) keep his approach from being overy manipulated.</p>
<p>We all know that teams try to change pitchers motions, and that not all teams have the same approach.  It has to be frustrating for a kid to have thrown one way his whole life and then suddenly be asked to make changes by some low-A pitching coach.  </p>
<p>Specific to Bauer; how in the hell does UCLA have the #1 and #3 overall picks (him and Gerrett Cole), both being near-MLB ready starters, and NOT at least reach the CWS that year?  They got beat in the regionals, didn&#8217;t even make the super-regionals.  So odd.</p>
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		<title>By: Wally</title>
		<link>http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493&#038;cpage=1#comment-7292</link>
		<dc:creator>Wally</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Dec 2012 17:51:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=5493#comment-7292</guid>
		<description>Todd - good article, I have thought it over too, without any real conclusions, although I think that I side with the player. Here are some random comments:

I had also read somewhere that Bauer&#039;s velo was down a  few ticks too, possibly related to a groin injury he suffered earlier in the year.

Arizona does seem like a rigid organization.  Those repeated Justin Upton rumors are puzzling, since it can only decrease his trade value, plus alienate the player.  I don&#039;t know if it all comes from Towers, but that owner (or president) makes some unusual comments too.  It is almost like they are consumed by a &#039;machismo&#039; culture.  They seem like a very black and white kind of place.

It also seems pretty clear that Bauer is an opinionated young man, but can you blame him?  He deals with college coaches who&#039;ll destroy a kid&#039;s arm to win a few games; pro teams who also look to maximize short term results over a player&#039;s interest; pitching coaches that try to fit everyone into the same square peg.  He probably is the only one who is interested in his long term prospects.  I don&#039;t blame the kid for sticking to what got him here, and as far as his super small sample size results, isn&#039;t that true for virtually 99% of young pitchers, that it takes them a while to figure out how to pitch at the top level?

I dunno, it seemed like Arizona decided that they wanted him gone for non-baseball reasons, and did it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Todd &#8211; good article, I have thought it over too, without any real conclusions, although I think that I side with the player. Here are some random comments:</p>
<p>I had also read somewhere that Bauer&#8217;s velo was down a  few ticks too, possibly related to a groin injury he suffered earlier in the year.</p>
<p>Arizona does seem like a rigid organization.  Those repeated Justin Upton rumors are puzzling, since it can only decrease his trade value, plus alienate the player.  I don&#8217;t know if it all comes from Towers, but that owner (or president) makes some unusual comments too.  It is almost like they are consumed by a &#8216;machismo&#8217; culture.  They seem like a very black and white kind of place.</p>
<p>It also seems pretty clear that Bauer is an opinionated young man, but can you blame him?  He deals with college coaches who&#8217;ll destroy a kid&#8217;s arm to win a few games; pro teams who also look to maximize short term results over a player&#8217;s interest; pitching coaches that try to fit everyone into the same square peg.  He probably is the only one who is interested in his long term prospects.  I don&#8217;t blame the kid for sticking to what got him here, and as far as his super small sample size results, isn&#8217;t that true for virtually 99% of young pitchers, that it takes them a while to figure out how to pitch at the top level?</p>
<p>I dunno, it seemed like Arizona decided that they wanted him gone for non-baseball reasons, and did it.</p>
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