Post season predictions so far:
- Wild Card Games: (link to my prediction post): got both Houston and Cubs WC wins right.
- NLDS: (link to my prediction post): Got LA in 5 games wrong, got Cubs in 4 exactly right
- ALDS: (link to my prediction post): Got Toronto in 4 correct, got KC in 5 exactly right
While my overall predictions were pretty good, on an individual game-by-game basis i’ve been awful. Silly me thinking that regular season dominance on the mound would lead to performance in the playoffs (ahem, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke).
Toronto-Kansas City:
- Game 1: Estrada vs Volquez
- Game 2: Price vs Ventura
- Game 3: Cueto vs Stroman
- Game 4: likely Young vs Dickey
- Game 5: likely Estrada vs Volquez rematch
- Game 6: likely Price vs Ventura rematch
- Game 7: likely Cueto vs Strohman rematch
Thoughts: Its hard to root against Toronto, the presumptive AL favorite since they remade their team at the deadline. The incredibly curious handling of David Price seems really odd though.
Game 4 is where I think this series turns. RA Dickey absolutely shut down the Royals when he saw them this year (7ip 2hits) while the Royals basically have no fourth starter; they went to a 3 man rotation in the ALDS because they could thanks to Ventura’s short outing but they likely won’t have that luxury in the ALCS. No less than three Nats rejects (Estrada, Stroman, Young) will be pitching in this series and they all could have serious impact. I think the Blue Jays can steal a game in KC, take 2 of 3 at home and then have Price pitch them to a win in game 6. Prediction: Toronto in 6.
Good reference links for the above analysis:
- Baseball-reference’s post season page:
- SportsonEarth.com’s Will Leitch’s previews on the ALCS, NLCS
- Depth Charts at Baseball Prospectus.com
I pay only limited attention to the AL but am 3-0 in my series picks, but only 1-2 in the NL after having the Pirates in the WC and losing out with the Dodgers to the increasingly irritating Mets. Oh well.
The ALCS looks like it could be a football series, with some 10-7 scores. It also looks like there will be a lot of time in the bullpen, and I think the Royals have a better one, and the better closer in Wade Davis. The Jays also don’t have the bullpen lefties to match up very well with all the Royal LH bats. Combine these things with the Royals’ experience from last year and their superior defense, and I’m going to give them a slight nod, despite their deficiency in starting pitching.
KW
16 Oct 15 at 2:00 pm
For the record, I almost had myself convinced to pick the Mets until I saw that the Cubs had dominated the season series 7-0. So I’ll go with the Cubs, despite the Met win in game 1. The Cubs have a lot riding on Arrieta being able to beat Syndergaard in game 2, though. If they lose with Lester and Arrieta, they’re in a serious hole.
KW
18 Oct 15 at 8:15 am