Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

2015 Season Statistical review of the 2014 draft Class

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Fedde has returned from TJ surgery successfully. Photo via chicagonow.com

Fedde has returned from TJ surgery successfully. Photo via chicagonow.com

Following in the footsteps of the stat review of the 2015 draft class, here’s the same analysis for the 2014 draft class, looking at their 2015 numbers and making some snap judgements.

I last did this project in 2013 (got too busy this time last fall at a new client), so this is the first time I’ve really run through the 2014 draft class in this detail.  In fact, getting into the lower picks I don’t even recognize some of the names, having only really focused on the top 10 guys at the time.  Its definitely interesting to see where they stand one year on.

Web links to use while reading:

Unlike the 2015 draft class analysis, we’ve already shedded a large number of 2014 draftees.  And mostly we have full seasons worth of work on which to judge.

Without further ado:

Round 1: Erick Fedde RHP COL jr from UNLV.  4-1, 2.57 ERA in Short-A Auburn with 36/8 in 35ip (8 starts), 2.60 fip, .346 babip.  He then got bumped up to Hagerstown where he threw another 29 innings across 6 starts with lesser stats (1-2, 4.34 ERA).  A good  post-Tommy  John debut season for Fedde, despite the rather restrictive innings limits put on him; he was limited to just 5ip per start for a total of 64ip on the season between two levels.  I’m not sure why they were so restrictive: he threw many more innings in his college career (90, 96 and then 76 before getting injured in 2014).  I guess the theory was to limit him to half his pre-injury innings limit first  year back, with a goal of getting back to that level of production in 2016.  You Look for him to be in the Potomac rotation on perhaps a 90-100 innings limit for 2016 (or, exactly what Giolito did his 2nd year back from TJ surgery in 2014).  Trending up.

Round 2: Andrew Suarez LHP COL jr  from Miami (FL).  Did not sign: returned to Miami for his senior year where he led his team to the CWS before getting shelled in Omaha.  Drafted in the 2nd round again, slightly later than the Nats did and signed for slot for San Francisco.  He did not significantly improve his draft position by playing college another year, but may have gotten more cash (we do not know what bonus amount he declined in 2014).

Round 3: Jakson Reetz, C  Norris HS (NE).  Slashed just .212/.326/.248  between ShortA/GCL with 37/13 k/bb in 113 Abs, 0homers 3sb just 36 games.  A curious season for Reetz: why was he at short-A to begin with?  He seemed to play mostly half and half time with an older DSL grad catcher and seemed outmatched in the league; why not just bring him back to Florida for another year of seasoning?  Definitely a set-back year for Reetz.  What do they do with him next year?  Try him at Low-A after doing poorly in Short-A?  Have him repeat the rookie league for the third time?  Where’s the power?  a .248 slugging percentage is incredibly weak.  Trending Down.

Round 4: Robbie Dickey, RHP  from Blinn College (TX).  0-3, 6.65 ERA starting in Hagerstown and getting demoted to Auburn.  16/17 k/bb in 23ip (6 starts).  He was incredibly wild and then didn’t pitch after 7/25/15, accumulating just 23 IP on the year.  Was he hurt?  There was no record of a D/L trip, just an assignment back to XST after a while.  All in all, a pretty disappointing season for our 4th round pick.  Where does he go from here?  Is the team just being too impatient with him, yanking him from Hagerstown after just a few innings?  Trending Down.

Round 5: Drew Van Orden RHP COL sr from Duke.  5-5, 3.61 ERA  for Hagerstown with 47/34 K/BB in 92ip (15 starts), 4.33 fip, .254 babip.  Not a bad season for an under-slot senior sign, who’s clearly sticking around.  He was mostly a spot starter for Hagerstown this year, getting a bunch of starts during the turmoil of the rotation.  He ended the season on the DL after giving the team 92 decent innings.  His FIP is a bit weak thanks to overall lucky BABIP contact but he has given no reason not to put himself into the discussion for that same role in Potomac next year.  Trending Steady.

Round 6: Austen Williams RHP COL jr from Texas State.  12-8, 2.58 ERA while making the jump from Hagerstown to Potomac (with one AAA spot-start).  106/33 K/BB in 139.2 ip (25 starts).  He was 8-1 for Hagerstown before getting bumped up and continued to be effective all year.  Great season for Williams, putting his name on the map in the organization and starting to get some notice in the prospect rankings (he was #14 in the farm system in J.P. Schwartz‘s topprospectalert post-2015 rankings and in the upper 20s for Scout.com and MLB.com).  In the mix for a AA rotation spot in 2016.  Trending up.

Round 7: Dale Carey CF COL sr from Miami (FL).  Slashed .234/.340/.345 for Hagerstown with 91/66 K/BB in 415ABs, 8 homers, 10/9 SB/CS playing CF.  Another under-slot/cost savings senior sign who is sticking around, Carey showed some power but not great overall numbers playing CF this year.  He’ll be pushed out of CF by budding uber-prospect Victor Robles unless Carey can earn a promotion, which may be hard to do.  Needs to show a better hit tool if he wants to keep a job.  Trending Steady.

Round 8: Jeff Gardner, LF COL sr from Louisville.  Slashed .226/.296/.345  in Hagerstown with 90/38 K/BB in 403ABs, 5 homers, 8/7 SB/CS playing LF.  Unlike his fellow senior sign and outfield partner Carey, Gardner is stuck in the unathletic corner and isn’t showing nearly the power or bat that he needs to stick around.  He’ll get pushed out of a corner job in Hagerstown for 2016 and may lose out in a numbers game.  Trending down.

Round 9: Austin Byler, 1B COL jr for Nevada (Reno).  Did not sign: returned to Nevada for his senior season, led his team into the CWS playoffs and showed a ton of potential .. .but slipped out of the top10 rounds.  He was the first pick of the non-bonus controlled rounds, in the 11th by Arizona, meaning his fortunes dipped slightly by staying in college another year.  One last unfortunate footnote; a quick google search shows that Byler was suspended for PED-usage at the end of the 2015 season.  Whoops.

Round 10: Matthew Page, RF COL sr  from Oklahoma Baptist U.   Slashed .270/.362/.384 between ShortA and LowA, with 54/39 K/BB in 263ABs, 2 homers, 6 sbs.  Not a bad return for a $30k bonus on a college senior from a small school.   He isn’t lighting the world on fire, but he’s keeping his head above water.  He’ll compete with his fellow senior sign OFs Carey and Gardner for a spot in the 2016 Potomac outfield.  Trending Steady.

Round 11: Weston Davis RHP Manatee HS (FL).  He did not play (injured) in 2015.  He had just 16 IP in all of 2014 for the GCL Nats.  No word on the nature of the injury, but 16IP in two pro years is never a good start to a career.  Trending down.

Round 12: Domenick Mancini RHP from Miami-Dade CC South.  He was released 6/27/15; no 2015 stats after 14.2 IP in 2014.  He lost out in the numbers game thanks to the massive influx of college arms competing for Short-A roster spots.

Round 13: Austin Davidson, 3B COL jr  from Pepperdine.  Slashed just .202/.302/.314 for Hagerstown with 47/26 K/BB in 258 Abs, 6 homers, 6/7 sb/cs playing 2B and 3B.  His bat definitely took a step back in Low-A and there’s a glut of middle infielders in the 2015 class.  He may not be long for the organization.  Trending down.

Round 14: James Bourque RHP COL jr from Michigan.  dnp – injured; no IP in 2015.  He was in the Auburn rotation for 2014 and pitched adequately, but never got started in 2015.  Lets hope he makes it back to compete for a job in 2016.  Trending Steady.

Round 15: Ryan Ripken 1B COL soph from Indian River State (FL) Slashed .250/.296/.391 with 15/5 K/BB in 92ABs while repeating the Gulf Coast league.  A curious case; why so little playing time at age 22, repeating the GCL?  The team had all spring to evaluate him yet put a senior nominal slot signee (David Kerian) at 1B in Auburn instead of Ripken.  Is he hurt?  Is he just being rostered because of his name?  Trending down.

Round 16: Cole Plouck LHP from Pima CC (AZ): went 1-0, 1.80 ERA in a 5 inning stint in Auburn… and then was released on 6/29/15.  Why??  Such a strange case; why send him to Vermont if you’re going to release him a few days later?  Understood if he gets lit up maybe, but it just seems odd timing.  It does not look like he’s picked up elsewhere, so perhaps it was a “retirement.”

Round 17: Alec Keller CF COL sr from Princeton.  Slashed .294/.341/.374 while getting promoted from LowA->HighA.   63/30 K/BB in 425 Abs, 0 homers, 11/9 Sb/cs playing CF.  Not bad for a most unlikely college senior sign.  If he can keep the average and OBP up and perhaps improve his SB success rate, he could put himself in a pretty good position.  Trending up.

Round 18: McKenzie Mills,  LHP, Sprayberry Senior HS (GA).  0-5, 7.27 ERA  with 24/28 K/BB in 34.2 ip across two levels.  He posted a 4.46 fip, .405 babip  while in Short-A then got dropped back to the Rookie league.   Rough season for Mills, who couldn’t make the jump to short-A, then struggled when back in rookie ball.  Just way too many walks to be effective, but likely hangs around a bit longer since he can just hang out in XST and try to pick back up on next year’s short season squads again.  Trending down.

Round 19: Clay Williamson,  RF COL jr from Cal State Fullerton.  Slashed .211/.318/.316  in 5 Auburn games and then was released 6/29/15 as the 2015 signees started rolling in.   Never really impressed in 2014 (hitting .236 in short season) and may wish he had stayed in school instead of signing as a 19th round junior draftee.

Round 20: Bryan Langlois, RF COL jr from Pepperdine: no 2015 stats, was in XST the entire season.  He had 141 mostly non-descript ABs in Auburn last  year, then never got assigned this year.  But, he wasn’t released either; is he injured?  Converting to a new position?  Trending down.

Round 21: Connor Bach, LHP COL sr from Virginia Military Institute.  Posted a 6-4, 3.85 ERA with 106/69 K/BB in 110 ip (20 starts) in Low A as a member of the rotation for much of the season.  4.08 fip, .311 babip.  Not too shabby for a 21st round senior sign from a relatively unknown baseball school.  Perhaps too many walks, but nearly a K/inning in full-season ball portends well for his future.  At the very least he could move up as a lefty specialist.  Trending up.

Round 22: Daniel Salters, C COL soph  from Dallas Baptist: did not sign: returned to DBU for his junior season and then was drafted by Cleveland in the 13th round of 2015 draft.  He had a good 2015 short-season, so going back to school definitely helped his career.

Round 23: Chris Riopedre, SS COL jr, East Tennessee State.  Went 1-4 in one game for Auburn this year and then was released on 6/25/15.  He only hit .214 in Auburn last  year, and the team drafted a ton of MIF players in 2015, but it does seem harsh to make the kid go all the way to Vermont just to release him after *one game*.

Round 24: Kyle Simmons RHP COL jr Texas Lutheran U.  Assigned to GCL but dnp – injured and no IP in 2015.  He had just a 5.03 ERA in limited innings last year in the GCL and now missed this year.  As a small college junior draftee, he’ll be entering his 3rd pro season with just 19 poor innings of rookie ball performance; hard to see him making an impact.  Trending down.

Round 25: Kyle Bacak C COL sr  from Texas Christian U.  He went 4-28 for Auburn last year and was released 1/20/15.

Round 26: Chase McDowell RHP COL 5S  Rice (TX): retired 4/9/15 after putting up a 4.50 ERA in 28IP for Auburn last year.  If I had to guess, he probably lost out on a full season job, was looking at sitting around in XST until June and (as an older guy, a 5th year senior) may have looked at the guys in camp who were all 4-5  years younger and called it quits.  I had a friend who did exactly this: graduated a 4-year program as a highly decorated college player, then was sent to short-season ball.  He got all the way to Idaho or some random place and looked at his teammates: he said they were all just as good as he was but all 3 years younger and mostly Dominican.  He had a college degree, a job waiting for him and came to a quick realization that he could push for several years of below-minimum wage money looking at an uphill battle where his age worked against him, or he could just face reality and start his life.  You wonder how often this really happens.

Round 27: Conor Keniry SS COL sr Wake Forest U.  Slashed .250/.323/.310 while moving up from ShortA->LowA.  27/10 K/BB in 116ABs, 1hr, 3sbs as 2B.  Not bad; he was clearly the backup middle infielder “guy who can play any infield position in a pinch” guy for Hagerstown.  Can he stay in that role?  Maybe, maybe not.  He’ll have plenty of competition for that spot in 2016 thanks to a slew of 2B/SS draftees in 2015 plus rising DSL players.  Trending Steady.

Round 28: Kida De La Cruz, RHP from Volunteer State CC (TN).  Went 0-0, 5.43 ERA in just 1.2 IP for GCL in 2015.  But he has no injuries listed.  He threw 18 rather non descript innings for the GCL last year too.  Perhaps they just don’t bother with D/L postings for kids on teams based out of spring training facilities since the lines seem rather blurred between “XST” and “GCL.”  There were 4 or 5 guys this year who spent the entire year in “Extended Spring Training” or “To Be Determined” fashion, including a couple of very long-serving minor league arms (see the final column in the Big Board link).  Either way, De La Cruz is now 21, has 20 innings in GCL with more walks than strikeouts; hard to see him making an impact.  Trending down.

Round 29: DJ Jauss, RHP COL 5S from U. Mass. Amherst: was released 3/26/15 after getting hit hard in the GCL last season.  Just no room for a guy who is now 25 who couldn’t cut it in the rookie league.

Round 30: Tyler Mapes RHP COL sr from Tulane U. (LA).  Went 7-3, 2.23 ERA with 75/17 K/BB in 96.2 ip (8 starts) between  LowA->HighA, 2.78 fip, .324 babip.  Ended the year in Potomac’s rotation.  What a great result set for a 30th round college senior sign.  At one point he was even up in AA, though he had no appearances.  Good K/BB ratio, good peripherals.  Great find from the draft team.  Trending up.

Round 31: Samuel Johns RHP COL 5S U. Evansville (IN).  Went 3-4, 4.31 ERA between LowA and ShortA with 39/17 k/bb in 62.2 relief innings, 4.63 fip, .290 babip in lowA.  He struggled in LowA, but then dropped back to ShortA and was dominant.  Not great, but certainly not bad for a 31st round 5th year senior as compared to what has happened to other 5th year senior signs on this list.  Maybe not the best stuff, but has been effective.  My guess is that he either makes the Hagerstown team next spring or is cut loose, but the fact that he hung around this long gives him some more room to work with.  Trending Steady.

The rest of the 2014 draft class was HS kids who were long shots to sign and a Juco kid in the 40th who already had a transfer agreement to a good baseball school; one more piece of evidence to perhaps shorten the draft to 35 or even 30 rounds?  Here’s a quick summary.

Round 32: Cary, Elliott CF Clackamas HS (OR): did not sign: honored commitment to Oregon State.
Round 33: Casey, Clay CF DeSoto Central HS (MS): did not sign: honored commitment to Mississippi
Round 34: Skoug, Evan C Libertyville HS (IL): did not sign: honored commitment to TCU
Round 35: Doyle, Tommy RHP Flint Hill School (VA): did not sign: honored commitment to Virginia.  At UVA, Doyle played an integral part in getting UVA out of the regional but did not really factor after that.
Round 36: Styles, John Henry LHP Episcopal HS (TX): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford
Round 37: Brodey, Quinn LHP Loyola HS (CA): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford
Round 38: Fairchild, Stuart RF Seattle Prep (WA): did not sign: honored commitment to Wake Forest
Round 39: Littell, Jon OF Stillwater HS (OK): did not sign: honored commitment to OK State
Round 40: Hill, Jacob LHP JUCO Orange Coast Coll. (CA): did not sign: transferred to U San Diego, then was drafted by Cleveland in the 32nd round of 2015 but had no 2015 innings as far as I can tell.


Trending Summary:

  • Trending Up (5): Fedde, Williams, Keller, Bach, Mapes
  • Trending Steady (6): Van Orden, Carey, Page, Bourque, Keniry, Johns
  • Trending Down (10): Reetz, Dickey, Gardner, Davis, Davidson, Ripken, Mills, Langlois, Simmons, De La Cruz
  • Did Not Sign in 2014 (12): Suarez, Byler, Salters, Cary, Casey, Skoug, Doyle, Styles, Brodey, Fairchild, Littell, Hill
  • Released/Retired (7): Mancini, Plouck, Williamson, Riopedre, Bacak, McDowell, Jauss

Executive Summary

While I still think this draft was a failure for the lack of Suarez and Byler signings, we are seeing some great surprises from later picks Keller, Bach and Mapes.  Reetz and Dickey under-performance hurts the class too.  Fedde’s return was good, but he needs to make himself into a legit #3 starter prospect for me to start thinking more favorably about this class.  However, 19 out of 40 picks either never signed or are already gone after just one year, and another 10 are trending towards a release instead of production .. this can’t be good.  Lotta red in that trending summary.


PS: I created an XLS to do this analysis; if you prefer, you can see my working XLS in Google for all this data which is also listed as a link to the right (2015 Stats for 2014 Draft Class); quick XLS below:

Round Player/Pos Level 2015 Level 2015 Basic Stats
1 Fedde, Erick RHP COL jr ShortA 4-1, 2.57 ERA
2 Suarez, Andrew LHP COL jr did not sign: returned to Miami
3 Reetz, Jakson C HS ShortA->GCL .212/.326/.248
4 Dickey, Robbie RHP JUCO LowA->ShortA 0-3, 6.65 ERA
5 Van Orden, Drew RHP COL sr LowA 5-5, 3.61 ERA
6 Williams, Austen RHP COL jr LowA->HighA (with 1 AAA spot start) 12-8, 2.58 ERA
7 Carey, Dale “D.K.” CF COL sr LowA .234/.340/.345
8 Gardner, Jeff LF COL sr LowA .226/.296/.345
9 Byler, Austin 1B COL jr did not sign: returned to Nevada
10 Page, Matthew RF COL sr ShortA->LowA .270/.362/.384
11 Davis, Weston RHP HS GCL (DL) dnp – injured
12 Mancini, Domenick RHP CC released (2015)
13 Davidson, Austin 3B COL jr LowA .202/.302/.314
14 Bourque, James RHP COL jr ShortA dnp – injured
15 Ripken, Ryan 1B COL soph GCL .250/.296/.391
16 Plouck, Cole LHP CC released (2015) 1-0, 1.80 ERA
17 Keller, Alec CF COL sr LowA->HighA .294/.341/.374
18 Mills, McKenzie LHP HS ShortA->GCL 0-5, 7.27 ERA
19 Williamson, Clay RF COL jr released (2015) .211/.318/.316
20 Langlois, Bryan RF COL jr XST no 2015 stats
21 Bach, Connor LHP COL sr LowA 6-4, 3.85 ERA
22 Salters, Daniel C COL soph did not sign: returned to DBU
23 Riopedre, Chris SS COL jr released (2015) .250/.250/.250
24 Simmons, Kyle RHP COL jr GCL (DL) dnp – injured
25 Bacak, Kyle C COL sr released (2015)
26 McDowell, Chase RHP COL 5S retired (2015)
27 Keniry, Conor SS COL sr ShortA->LowA .250/.323/.310
28 De La Cruz, Kida RHP CC GCL 0-0, 5.43 ERA
29 Jauss, DJ RHP COL 5S released (2015)
30 Mapes, Tyler RHP COL sr LowA->HighA 7-3, 2.23 ERA
31 Johns, Samuel RHP COL 5S ShortA->LowA 3-4, 4.31 ERA
32 Cary, Elliott CF HS did not sign: Oregon State
33 Casey, Clay CF HS did not sign: Mississippi
34 Skoug, Evan C HS did not sign: TCU
35 Doyle, Tommy RHP HS did not sign: Virginia
36 Styles, John Henry LHP HS did not sign: Stanford
37 Brodey, Quinn LHP HS did not sign: Stanford
38 Fairchild, Stuart RF HS did not sign: Wake Forest
39 Littell, Jon OF HS did not sign: OK State
40 Hill, Jacob LHP JUCO did not sign: U San Diego

16 Responses to '2015 Season Statistical review of the 2014 draft Class'

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  1. Good grief, I had no idea this class was doing so badly. It can’t be normal to release so many kids so quickly, can it? Especially HS kids? Someone mentioned Roy Clark in the last post; wasn’t there also a guy who left to become Arizona’s scouting director, too? I heard somewhere that most GMs only get involved with the top pick, then turn it over to the scouting director and staff. Maybe those guys were an issue; hard to say.

    Hey, here’s an offseason roster idea: Steve Pearce? Wish he was lefty, but has positional flexibility and could back up Zim and Werth, in addition to being a good bench bat. The similarities to McLouth are uncomfortable but he fits otherwise. Wonder what kind of deal he gets this year.

    Wally

    22 Oct 15 at 8:00 pm

  2. Todd, you left off Fedde’s Hagerstown stop, where things didn’t go well ERA-wise (4.34) but better with WHIP (1.10). It will be interesting to see if the Nats push him on to Potomac out of XLT, or make him get more established at low-A first. I’ve never been a huge fan of this pick and would not be unhappy if Fedde becomes trade bait. If he stays, he needs to spend some time with his buddy Bryce and bulk up.

    Reetz is very worrisome. I don’t think a Nat catcher throughout the whole system had a good year, majors included.

    Right now, A. Williams and Mapes look like the unlikely stars of this thin class. Both may start at AA next year, which is quite an achievement for them. Neither has the overpowering stuff that this organization likes to see, though. Bach and Van Orden, the two lefties who are progressing, don’t either. Bach is a local, Centreville HS, probably ticketed for Potomac next year.

    Like Wally, I’m rather horrified at how many from this class have already been released/retired.

    FYI, the Nats left Vermont a few years ago; Auburn is a bit farther west!

    KW

    22 Oct 15 at 9:55 pm

  3. Interesting note from Wagner this evening: Aaron Barrett is best friends with Mattingly’s son and spent a lot of time with the Mattinglys while growing up. Apparently, Donnie Baseball has kept up with the Nats through his son’s connection with Barrett.

    KW

    22 Oct 15 at 10:00 pm

  4. KW you’re right on Fedde; I forgot he got pushed up. Missed that; just updated the text a bit. Where is Auburn? I thought it was still in Vermont?

    Todd Boss

    23 Oct 15 at 8:48 am

  5. Auburn is in central NY in the Finger Lakes region. It’s a pretty little town . . . in the summer! It’s actually only about 30 miles from Syracuse if you ever want to plan a farm trip, and Harrisburg is right on the way.

    KW

    23 Oct 15 at 10:41 am

  6. Two LA Times takes on Mattingly, one fairly positive, the other not so much:

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-highs-lows-mattingly-20151022-story.html

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-plaschke-mattingly-friedman-dodgers-20151022-column.html

    I just have a feeling that he’s going to bubble toward the top of the Nats’ search fairly quickly. The Marlins want him badly, but that job is no one’s first choice. I’m still trying to figure out what I think about him.

    KW

    23 Oct 15 at 3:14 pm

  7. I am inclined to agree that he is likely to become a leading contender. I grew up a Yankee fan as a kid and Matthingly was a hero, but not sure he’d be my pick. I don’t know enough about the candidates to have a strong opinion yet, but if I was picking now, I’d probably go with Knorr (I know that won’t happen), then might lean towards Dave Martinez or maybe Wotus. I do like the trend towards incorporating analytics into managing decisions but I am not sure this is a front office that is going to feed it to the manager.

    Wally

    23 Oct 15 at 8:03 pm

  8. The latest buzzing seems to be that the Nats won’t interview Mattingly, and that they are going to bring Black and Baker back for a second round of interviews. I saw something somewhere that said Dusty has spent his year off trying to get up to speed on the analytical side of things. One hopes he has also been introduced to this “new concept” of pitch counts!

    KW

    23 Oct 15 at 10:05 pm

  9. Dusty has a book coming out about the Monterey Pop Festival, a family wine business, and an alternative energy company:

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/dusty-and-jimi?intcid=popular

    Interesting dude, but to me, he’s too old-school for what the Nats need right now.

    KW

    24 Oct 15 at 8:20 am

  10. Manager spot: I think i’m pro Black, anti Baker. Black a former pitcher and all of Williams’ failings were in pitcher management. Mattingly? I dunno what to make of him; in some ways he was dealt a very difficult hand. $300M payroll, but a third of it was dead money and he never had a third starter this year.

    Todd Boss

    24 Oct 15 at 9:46 am

  11. So who do we think they’re going to choose? If Mattingly is out, Gardy seems to fit their old school style, but I can’t shake this feeling that maybe Dusty is their guy. It just doesn’t seem like they’ll go for one of these younger bench coach types. I can’t get too worked up about it either way. hopefully whoever it is can at least speak to the media in a coherent manner.

    I am more interested in what the roster looks like. I still think it makes sense for Span to return, assuming health.

    Is it me, or do the Nats come off as a bit insular as an organization? Just read the Marlins brought in one of the Pirates special assistant pitching guys. It would be good to see the Nats do some thing like that occasionally. Not the pitching guy, but seems like other orgs produce more position player prospects, and some good amount of that has to be player development. It could be good to see some new guys brought in to shake it up a bit from time to time.

    Wally

    24 Oct 15 at 5:40 pm

  12. Anyone who attended the Monterey Pop Festival in ’67 has my attention.

    old man

    24 Oct 15 at 9:40 pm

  13. Interesting rundown by Kilgore on how the trend of hiring inexperienced managers hasn’t been working out well:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/10/23/mlb-teams-keep-hiring-inexperienced-managers-its-not-working/

    I have a hard time getting excited about Black. I’m not a big fan of Baker’s, either, but when he has had talent, he has won, even with some of the most challenging personalities. Black only has two winning seasons. I think I’d prefer Mattingly to either of them, but he may not get in the picture.

    KW

    24 Oct 15 at 10:09 pm

  14. Read a couple of LAD tidbits this morning that were interesting – as an aside, I have to say I find LAD in generally to be pretty interesting, marrying new school ideas with big spending ways. My pet theory is that it isn’t going to end well, that the expectations around big spending will not allow for patience with the different innovations that the Friedman types want to do (meaning that you have to be in the right environment to try all that stuff).

    Anyway, here is one guy’s take on the role of the manager- Today’s manager is more of a middle manager, a politician within the organization and a corporate spokesman representing the organization, a front man for the team at a time the balance of power has shifted from the dugout to the front office.. I think this is more right than wrong, but leaves out the part about managing, explaining and getting buy in from the players, especially when they think it impacts their earnings.

    The second is this stat – since they drafted Kershaw, the next highest WAR produced by a 1st rounder is Corey Seager, in 1 month’s playing time. It’s almost incredible incompetence. Think about that and then compare it to Rizzo’s run of high first rounders

    Wally

    25 Oct 15 at 10:48 am

  15. As per the original post here, I asked Luke Erickson on his site about his lower ranking of Austen Williams. He made some very interesting observations about Williams and Rey Lopez from watching them regularly at Potomac:

    http://nationalsprospects.com/2015/10/afl-offseason-update-oct-24-2015/#comments

    It looks like Luke likes Mapes more than Williams. Is it possible that the 30th pick ends up being the Nats’ best pick in the draft?

    Managers: I browsed around looking at articles about Bud Black, but I still can’t get excited about him. He only had two good teams, both of with faded out of playoff contention. He doesn’t seem to have been much of a mentor to younger players and is thought to have been behind Anthony Rizzo being shipped to the Cubs. His record reminds me a lot of Riggleman’s. Yet he’s been called the front runner since the search started. Sigh.

    KW

    25 Oct 15 at 8:57 pm

  16. And yes, Wally, the Dodger WAR story is astounding. I’ll look back at their drafts when I have a chance. I would guess they lost a lot of first-round picks with FA signings.

    The manager as middle-manager comment reminds me of Moneyball and Art Howe’s role, although Art didn’t really understand his role. Rizzo supposedly meets with the manager before and/or after nearly every game, although I don’t think he has the club run by an organizational philosophy the way Billy Beane does. In fact, Matt Williams failed at having a consistent philosophy of any kind, despite being hyper-organized . . . just like a middle manager afraid of making mistakes that would make him look bad to his boss. Davey never willingly played such a role, and neither would Dusty.

    KW

    25 Oct 15 at 9:06 pm

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