Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

2018 CWS Group Winners and CWS Final preview

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Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2018:


Lets review the CWS group play.  The CWS plays just one or two games a day; a far cry from the first weekend, where 64 teams played hundreds of games over the course of a long weekend.  So this post has been written in one or two sentence increments for a week and a half…

My pre-CWS predictions were #1 Florida from the top and #3 Oregon State from the bottom, but noting that Arkansas and Mississippi State in particular were going to be tough outs.


In the Top Bracket (#1 Florida, #9 Texas Tech, #5 Arkansas, #13 Texas)

  • In the opening games Arkansas put up 8 in the 6th to easily down Texas 11-5.  Madison HS’ Andy McGuire was called upon for mop-up duty by Texas.  In the nightcap, Texas Tech got to Florida ace Brady Singer and downed the #1 seed 6-3.
  • In the first elimination game, #1 Florida whacked Texas 6-1 behind 1st round pick Jackson Kowar to eliminate Texas.
  • In the winner’s bracket game, #5 Arkansas scored early and often and was in control throughout over Texas Tech.
  • In the play-in game to the group final, Florida got some revenge and eliminated Texas Tech to force their way into the group final.
  • In the group final, Arkansas got a dominant start from #3 starter Isaiah Campbell, who shut down Florida and got Arkansas to their first CWS final since 1979.

Final Group standings: Arkansas, Florida, Texas Tech, Texas


In the Bottom Bracket (#3 Oregon State, #6 UNC, Mississippi State, Washington)

  • In the opening games, UNC got to OSU’s stud Luke Heimlich for 6 runs early, then the game turned into a slow slog eventually won by UNC.  In the night cap, Mississippi State got a walk-off RBI single to squeak by Washington 1-0.
  • In the first elimination game, Oregon State blasted Pac-12 rival Washington 14-5 to make them the first team eliminated.
  • In the winner’s bracket game, Mississippi State destroyed UNC 12-2 to continue its amazing late-season run and put themselves in the driver’s seat of this bracket.
  • In the play-in game to the group final, Oregon State scored 8 runs in the last two innings to get revenge and eliminate UNC 11-6.
  • In the group final, Oregon State destroyed Mississippi State 12-2 to force the decider.  There, Oregon State took advantage of some iffy coaching to score 5 two-out runs early and made it stick to advance.

Final Group standings: Oregon State, Mississippi State, UNC, Washington


CWS finals discussion: Games 1,2,3 set for June 25th-27th.

Pitching Match-ups:

  • Game 1: Monday 6/25/18: Arkansas’s #1 Blaine Knight on 8 days rest vs Oregon State’s #1 Luke Heimlich on 4 days rest
  • Game 2: Tuesday 6/26/18: Arkansas #2 Kacey Murphy on 5 days rest vs Oregon State’s #2 Bryce Fehmel on 4 days rest
  • Game 3: Wednesday 6/27/18: Arkansas #3 Isaiah Campbell on 4 days rest vs Oregon State’s #3 freshman Kevin Abel on 3 days rest (if necessary)

Advantage Arkansas here; their rotation is rested and has been successful in the CWS.  Oregon State cannot say the same:  Heimlich has gotten knocked out early in both his CWS starts and Fehmel didn’t get out of the 4th in his most recent start.  Abel was fantastic against Mississippi State in the decider …. but even if they get to him he’ll be on just 3 days rest and may not even be available.

Prediction: Arkansas in 3.


College CWS tournament references

Written by Todd Boss

June 24th, 2018 at 6:57 pm

2018 CWS Super-Regionals recap, CWS field and predictions

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(Just realized I forgot to post this earlier this week!  CWS started yesterday; this is a recap of the super regionals with predictions and key names to watch in the CWS).

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2018:


CWS Super Regionals were played this past weekend.

Super Regional Recaps:  I’ve got these ordered by they way they’ll be playing into the CWS field (i.e. by bracket, with former Natioanl seeds 1,8,5,4 in the top and 6,3,7,2 in the bottom).  And this is the order they’re listed on d1baseball’s Tourney Central, the quickest way to find results.

  • #1 Florida vs Auburn: Brady Singer overcame a leg injury in the first to throw a quality start while his offense spoiled Casey Mize‘s likely final collegiate start to get Game 1.  In game 2, Auburn could do nothing with Jackson Kowar, but got two runs late including a walk-off in the 9th to force a decided against Florida’s closer.   The two teams played a classic 3rd game, with Florida eventually advancing on a walk-off homer in the 11th to advance to Omaha for the fourth year in a row.
  • Duke vs #9 Texas Tech:  Texas Tech got the first game 6-4.   Duke pounded them 11-2 to force the decider.  There, Texas Tech won 6-2 to advance.
  • #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina: Arkansas showed why they’re a tough out, with their offense lighting up in a game one win 9-3.  Nats 10th rounder Carson Shaddy was a huge factor here, hitting a bases-clearing double in the 7th to break open the game.  In game 2, South Carolina got a solid start from Reservoir HS grad Cody Morris to force the deciding 3rd game (Note: Shaddy again had a solid game for Arkansas, and our 15th rounder Evan Lee got into the game as a match-up lefty for one batter).  In the decider, Arkansas jumped on South Carolina early and cruised 14-4 to earn a trip to Omaha.  Shaddy had another huge game with 3 RBIs.
  • Tennessee Tech vs #13 Texas: Tennessee Tech upset Texas 5-4 in the opener.  Texas won game two 4-2 to force a deciding third game.  There, Texas took the series against pesky Tennessee Tech to advance.
  • #3 Oregon State vs #14 Minnesota: OSU continued their dominant post-season by beating Minnesota 8-1 in the first game behind nearly a CG from OSU ace and lightening rod Luke Heimlich.  They had to work a bit harder in game 2, but Oregon State still advanced to their 2nd straight CWS 6-3.
  • #6 UNC vs #11 Stetson: UNC got to Stetson 1st rounder Logan Gilbert, putting 4 runs on him in 5 innings and holding on for the game 1 victory.  UNC made quick work of Stetson in Game 2 to advance to the CWS.
  • Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt: In a game dominated by poor pitching and errors, Mississippi State’s junior undrafted outfielder Elijah Macnamee hit a walk-off 2-run homer to take game one.  Vanderbilt scored 3 runs late, including a walk-off homer in the 9th, to take game 2; our two Vandy picks Reid Schaller and Chandler Day got the hold and the win by pitching the 8th and 9th in this gameMississippi State took game 3, getting a couple runs off of Day’s long-relief effort but exploding for four runs in the 11th to advance.
  • Cal State Fullerton vs Washington: UWash got to CSF starter Colton Eastman in the 7th, and put enough runs on the board to make the lead stick in game 1.  Fullerton got revenge in game two 5-2 and forced the decider.  There though, Washington won in extra innings to advance to their first ever CWS.

My CWS Predictions: Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Texas on one side, Oregon State, Stetson, Vanderbilt, Cal-State Fullerton on the other.

Actuals: Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Texas on the top, Oregon State, UNC, Mississippi State, Washington on the bottom.

I got the whole upper bracket right, whiffed on most of the lower bracket.

 


CWS Field and Profiles

Top Bracket:

  • #1 Florida: 47-19 overall, 20-10 in the SEC.  1st place SEC-East regular season.
  • #9 Texas Tech: 44-18 overall, 15-9 in Big-12.  3rd place Big-12 regular season.
  • #5 Arkansas; 43-19 overall, 18-12 in the SEC.  2nd place SEC-West regular season.
  • #13 Texas: 42-21 overall, 17-7 in Big-12.  1st place Big-12 regular season.

Bottom Bracket

  • #3 Oregon State: 49-10-1, 20-9-1 in the Pac-12.   2nd place, Pac-12 regular season.
  • #6 UNC: 43-18 overall, 22-8 in the ACC.  1st Place ACC-Coastal division regular season.
  • Mississippi State; 37-27 overall, 15-15 in the SEC.  5th Place, SEC-West division regular season.
  • Washington: 35-24 overall, 20-10 in the Pac-12

CWS field review by the numbers

  • SEC: 3 teams
  • Pac12: 2 team
  • ACC: 1 teams
  • Big12: 2 teams
  • National top 8 Seeds: 3
  • Regional Hosts (i.e. top 16 seeds): 6
  • First time programs: 1 (Washington)

CWS Field thoughts

An interesting field.   The entire bottom half of the tourney was decided before any of the upper half, as six of the eight super-regionals went the full 3 games.  At first glance, its easy to predict the two best teams here (Florida and Oregon State).  But its hard to not see what Mississippi State has done lately.  They finished 15-15 in SEC play … but that included them sweeping both Arkansas and Florida late just to get their league record up to .500.  They’re incredibly hot, just flipped the script on Vanderbilt, and is not a team i’d want to mess with right now.  The upper bracket has more seeds, but the lower bracket might be a tougher road for the favorite Oregon State.

Florida beat Arkansas 2 of 3 in their season series, but it was in Florida.  On a neutral field its hard to say who might win.  In the bottom , Oregon State will open with conference rival Washington, who they took 2 of 3 against (again at home).   Its hard to see a Texas-Texas Tech rematch but if they do meet, Texas took 2/3 on Texas Tech’s field and should be slightly favored on a neutral field.

Quick predictions:

Final: Oregon State over Florida.

Player Star power in this CWS: By team, here’s the top-end draft talents

  • Florida features top picks Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan India
  • Texas Tech’s top pick was a Supplemental 2nd rounder Grant Little.
  • Arkansas had three upper round picks: 3rd rounder Blaine Knight, 4th rounder Eric Cole and 5th round C Grant Koch.
  • Texas’ highest draft pick is the son of Roger ClemensKody Clemens, drafted in the 3rd round.  Also features role player Andy McGuire, from Madison HS in Vienna, drafted in the 28th round.
  • Oregon State features Nick Madrigal (#4 overall), plus 1st-day picks Trevor Larnach and Cayden Grenier, as well as the controversial 1st round talent Luke Heimlich.
  • UNC had just one top 10 round pick, RHP 6th rounder Rodney Hutchinson.
  • Mississippi State’s ace Konner Plikington slipped to the 3rd round.
  • Washington had and 8th rounder A.J. Graffiano and a 9th rounder Willie MacIver.

Nats 2018 Draftees in the CWS: thanks to the Nats strategy of drafting only College players, they drafted a ton of guys who are playing in Omaha.  By team:

  • #5 Arkansas features 10th rounder Carson Shaddy, the Arkansas starting 2B as well as our 15th rounder Evan Lee, a role-player on the team this year.  Shaddy had a massive super-Regional at the plate and will look to continue in the CWS.

College CWS tournament references:

2018 Draft coverage; Extended DC/MD/VA Draftee review

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UVA's Daniel Lynch is the highest-drafted DC/MD/VA player for 2018. Photo via Richmond Times Dispatch

UVA’s Daniel Lynch is the highest-drafted DC/MD/VA player for 2018. Photo via Richmond Times Dispatch

Here’s a review of MLB Draftees in 2018 with Local ties.  By Local, I mean any player that either went to high school or college anywhere in DC, MD or VA.

We posted earlier about all the marquee names in the area who may get draft notice;  almost all of them went undrafted  this year and so lots of colleges are getting VA and MD based kids heading to school.

Its clear to me that several clubs in particular had strong area scouts in the Virginia area;

  • Chicago Cubs: the Cubs took four Virginia-tied players in the top 10 picks and a fifth later on.
  • Cleveland: they took three locally-tied players in the first 11 rounds
  • New York Yankees: took four locally-tied players in this draft, three between the 8th and 13th rounds.
  • Cincinnati took two VA-college players in the top 10 rounds (both likely senior sign/money savers)
  • Arizona took three VA-tied players, including a flier on Zach Hess in the later rounds after he so precipitously fell.

There are several high schoolers in the DC/MD/VA area with commits to major colleges who went completely un-drafted, surprising me.  Stephen Pelli (UNC commit), Cade Huntgate (Florida State), Will Schroeder (also UNC), Kody Milton (UMD), Tyler Casagrande (Vanderbilt), Jacob Steinberg (Miami), and Ryan Archibald (Arizona).   This list includes both the Virginia and Maryland Gatorade players of the year for 2018, normally guys who are getting significant draft attention.

Its kind of a down year for prep players in the area.  We didn’t see a DC/MD/VA prep player even picked until the 18th round, and then  just a handful of others with throw-away mid-30th round picks.

Here’s a full table of all locally tied kids drafted this year.

RoundOverallDC LocalStateDrafting TeamPlayerPositionCol/HSHSCollege (or Commit)
134NoVAKansas CityLynch, DanielLHP4YR JRFreeman (Richmond)UVA
1-supp39NoVAArizonaMcCarthy, JakeOF4YR JRScranton HS (Scranton PA)UVA
1-supp43NoVASt. LouisRoberts, GriffinRHP4YR JRJames River HS (Midlothian)Wake Forest
3103NoMDClevelandPalacios, RichardSS4YR JRBrooklyn NYTowson
5158NoVAChicago CubsWeber, Andy2B4YR JRAuburn, OHUVA
5154NoMDSt. LouisDunn, Nick2B4YR JRSunbury PAUMD
7218NoVAChicago CubsArtis, D.J.CF4YR JRGreensboro NCLiberty
7223YesMDClevelandMorris, CodyRHP4YR JRReservoir HS (Columbia)South Carolina
7214NoVAMinnesotaWinder, JoshRHP4YR JRJames River HS (Midlothian)VMI
8248YesVAChicago CubsMort, ZachRHP4YR JRCosby HS (Chesterfield)George Mason
8247YesVANew York YankeesVan Hoose, ConnorRHP4YR SRGonzaga HS (via Alexandria)Bucknell
9278NoVAChicago CubsCasey, DerekRHP4YR SRHanover HS (Richmond)UVA
9259NoVACincinnatiMcDonald, AndrewRHP4YR JRCincinnati, OHVirginia Tech
10292NoVAArizonaLanghorne, Brett3B4YR SRLee-Davis HS, MechanicsvilleCarson-Newman College
10288NoVACincinnatiSousa, BennettLHP4YR SRNorth Palm Beach, FLUVA
11344YesVAClevelandDeGroat, JackRHP4YR JRLoudoun Valley HSLiberty
12367NoVANew York YankeesPita, MattOF4YR JRCosby HS (Chesterfield)VMI
13397YesMDNew York YankeesPasteur, IsaiahRHP4YR SRWinters Mill HS, Westminster MDGeorgetown
15449NoVATexasSimmons, CameronRF4YR JRRoyersford, PAUVA
16473YesVAOaklandNightengale, BryceRHP4YR JRAllegany HS, Cumberland, MDGeorge Mason
16474NoVAPittsburghSelby, ColinRHP4YR JRWestern Branch HS, Chesapeake VARandolph-Macon
18535NoMDBaltimoreZebron, JakeRHPHSColonial Richardson HS, FederalsburgNC State (commit)
19564YesDCPittsburghKobos, WillRHP4YR JRCharlotte, NCGeorge Washington
20586YesVASan FranciscoManning, JeffSS4YR JRBattlefield HS, HaymarketAlabama
20596NoVATorontoKapra, VinnySS4YR SRMelbourne, FLRichmond
21632NoVAKansas CityEaton, NathanCF4YR SOThomas Dale HS (Richmond)VMI
21644NoVALos Angeles DodgersTodd, TreCF4YR JRNew JerseyLiberty
22672NoMDHoustonCostes, MartyOF4YR JRArchbishop Curley (Baltimore)UMD
23698NoVAChicago CubsTaylor, HunterCF4YR SRNandua HS (DelMarVA peninsula)South Carolina
25756YesDCColoradoMetz, Robert2B4YR 5SPoolesville George Washington
26783NoVASt. LouisCoward, ConnorRHP4YR JRPittsburgh, PAVirginia Tech
26813YesVAWashingtonMorse, ColinRHP (Str)4YR SRMcLean HS, McLean VAShenandoah
28836YesVATorontoMcGuire, Andy1B4YR JRMadison HS, ViennaTexas
29877NoVANew York YankeesBertsch, JacksonLHP4YR 5S?Liberty
30906NoVAColoradoHarlow, ColtonLHP4YR SR?JMU
32955NoMDBaltimoreSandridge, JayvienLHPHSMercersburg Academy (Hagerstown)UCF (commit)
341012NoVAArizonaHess, ZackRHP (Str)4YR SOLiberty Christian Academy (Lynchburg)LSU
351045YesVABaltimoreGrammes, ConorRHP4YR SOMcLean HS, McLean VAXavier
351038YesVAChicago White SoxMorgan, JasonRHP4YR SRChancellor HS (Fredericksburg)UNC
351037NoVAPhiladelphiaRoss, AustinRHP (Str)4YR 5S?Radford
381130NoVANew York MetsZona, NickSSHS SRHanover HS (Richmond)JMU (commit)
391172NoVAKansas CityHackenberg, AdamCHS SRMiller School of Albemarle (VA)Clemson (commit)
401205NoVAMilwaukeeClarke, WesCHS SRLiberty Christian Academy (Lynchburg)South Carolina (commit)

Prep Baseball Update #3 2018: Virginia State Champs crowned

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Welcome to my DC Area Prep Baseball Tourney coverage for 2018.

Here’s the rough schedule of posting and what we’ll cover:

  • #1: DC/MD/VA District High School Tournament Report: post-season kickoff .  Covers: MD regionals, VA district brackets, Private school tourney updates.  Usually publishes the week before Memorial day tournament finals.
  • #2: Maryland State Champs, Virginia District and Regional Champs crowned.   Covers: MD state finals, VA regionals tourneys, DC playoff results.  Usually publishes after the Memorial Day weekend tournaments finish up.
  • #3: Virginia State Champions crowned (this post).  Covers: VA state tourneys, recaps MD, DC, Private School results.  Publishes mid-June once the Va state tourney wraps up.
  • #4: My theoretical “All DC/MD/VA Dream tournament” pairings, once all the state champs are finalized.
  • #5: Players of the Year/All-State lists and final rankings; publishes early July once all the all-state lists are published.

Lets see where we stand now with Virginia having completed their regional tournaments and setup state semi finals’ matchups.

All Virginia regional finals were played on 6/1/18, and all state tournaments finished up on 6/10/18.  Winners in all cases highlighted in bold red.


Virginia State tourney match-ups and tourney locations

All the state tourneys ran from June 5th-10th at the various sites.  All state brackets available from this link at VHSL, and the regional brackets are here.

 


Class 6 State Finals: Quarters on 6/5/18, Semis and Finals held at Deep Run HS in Richmond.

  • Class 6 Region A: First Colonial winner, Western Branch runner-up.
  • Class 6 Region B: Cosby winner, Thomas Dale runner-up.
  • Class 6 Region C: West Springfield winner, Lake Braddock runner-up.
  • Class 6 Region D: Battlefield winner, Chantilly runner-up

Class 6 State Quarters results:  Thomas Dale upset First Colonial 7-0, Western Branch upset Cosby 7-1 on a near no-hitter from Antonio Velazquez, West Springfield defeats Chantilly 4-2,  and Lake Braddock rallied late to upset Battlefield 6-5 in a battle of NoVa’s two top teams.

Class 6 State Semis Results: Western Branch defeats Thomas Dale 6-5 in extra innings.  West Springfield defeats Lake Braddock  6-2 for the 2nd time in a week to advance to the state title game.

Class 6 State Final: West Springfield blew open the game late to defeat the defending state champs 12-2 to take their first title since 2010.


Class 5 State Finals: Quarters on 6/5/18, Semis held at Glen Allen HS, final at Deep Run  HS in Richmond.

  • Class 5 Region A: Menchville winner, Maury runner-up.
  • Class 5 Region B: Deep Run winner, Prince George runner-up.
  • Class 5 Region C: Freedom-South Riding winner, Briar Woods runner-up.
  • Class 5 Region D: Potomac winner, Halifax County runner-up

Class 5 State Quarters results: Prince George upsets Menchville 8-1,  Deep Run beat Maury 8-6, Freedom-SR beats Halifax County 5-4, Potomac defeats defending state champ Briar Woods 3-1.

Class 5 State Semis Results:  Potomac blanked Freedom-South Riding 7-0, and Prince George got revenge for last week’s regional final and ended Deep Run’s cinderella story 7-3.

Class 5 State Final: Prince George beats Potomac 8-0 behind a 1-hit shutout from Buck Forbes.


Class 4 State Finals: Quarters on 6/5/18, Semis held at Kiwanis, final at Salem Memorial stadium in Salem (Roanoke).

  • Class 4 Region A: Grafton winner, Jamestown runner-up
  • Class 4 Region B: Dinwiddie winner, Powahatan runner-up.
  • Class 4 Region C: Fauquier winner, Woodgrove runner-up.
  • Class 4 Region D: Salem winner, Amherst County runner-up.

Class 4 State Quarters results:  Grafton defeats Powahatan 3-0, Jamestown upset Dinwiddie 7-3, Fauquier beat Amherst County 3-2 and Salem beat Woodgrove 7-2.

Class 4 State Semis Results: Jamestown got revenge against Grafton 10-8, and Salem downed Fauquier 8-3 behind a seven-run 6th inning.

Class 4 State Final: Salem walked-off against Jamestown to win their first state title 2-1.

 


Smaller Classifications

3A Quarters on 6/5/18, Semis and Final at Salem Memorial stadium in Salem (Roanoke).

  • Class 3 Region A: Hopewell winner, York runner-up
  • Class 3 Region B: Brentsville winner, Spotsylvania runner-up.
  • Class 3 Region C: Fluvanna County winner, Western Albemarle runner-up.
  • Class 3 Region D: Abington winner, Northside runner-up.

Class 3 State Quarters results: Spotsylvania upset Hopewell 5-2, Brentsville beats York 4-1, Fluvana County beat Northside 5-1, and Abington downed Western Albemarle 6-3,

Class 3 State Semis Results: Spotsylvania gets regional revenge over Brentsville 8-6, and Abington gets by Fluvanna County 8-2.

Class 3 State Final: Spotsylvania and Abington had to go to extra innings, where Spotsylvania prevailed 13-8 after exploding for 5 runs in the 8th.


2A and 1A brackets at VHSL site

  • Class 2 State Quarter finalists: Maggie Walker (2016’s 2-A champ), Stuarts Draft, Tazewell, Appotomax County
  • Class 2 State Semi finalists: Goochland, Chatham
  • Class 2 State Final: Page County over Virginia High 5-4.
  • Class 1 State Quarterfinalists:  West Point, Central-Lunenberg, Galax, Auburn (2017’s 1-A champion)
  • Class 1 State Semi finalists: Northumberland, Patrick Henry-Glade Spring
  • Class 1 State Final: Riverheads pounded Honaker 13-1 for the Class 1 State title.

Recent Virginia HS champs:  Virginia has Class 1 through Class 6.  Before 2014, we just AAA, AA and A.

2017: See this post for 2017’s state tournament wrap-up for all 6 divisions

  • In 6-A, Western Branch d Cox 6-4.  Oakton, Patriot semis.
  • In 5-A, Briar Woods d Halifax 5-4 in 14 innings.  Menchville and Prince George semi-finalists.
  • In 4-A, Liberty Christian Academy d Hanover 8-5.  Harrisonburg, Great Bridge semi-finalists.
  • In the smaller classifications, Turner Ashby won 3-A, Dan River won 2-A and Auburn won 1-A.

2016: See this post for 2016’s state tournament wrap-up for all 6 divisions

  • In 6-A, Chantilly d Battlefield 3-2.  Hylton & Cosby state semis.
  • In 5-A, Nansemond River defeated Mountain View 5-3.  Potomac, Mills Godwin semi finalists.
  • In 4-A, Hanover d Liberty Christian Academy 13-12.  Jamestown, Kettle Run semi finalists.
  • In the smaller classifications, Rustberg repeated 3-A, Maggie Walker won in 2-A and Rappahannock won 1-A.

2015: See this post for 2015’s state tournament wrapup for all 6 divisions:

  • In 6-A, Madison d Chantilly 6-5.  First Colonial & defending champ Western Branch were state semifinalists.
  • In 5-A, Stone Bridge d Marshall 9-4.  2014 finalists Hickory & Freeman were state semifinalists.
  • In 4-A, Glen Allen d Jefferson Forrest 9-3.  Fauquier & Hanover were state semifinalists.
  • In the smaller classifications, Lafayette won 3-A, Virginia High repeated in 2-A and William Campbell won 1-A.

2014: see this post for 2014’s state tournament wrap up for all 6 divisions.

  • In 6-A, Western Branch d Chantilly 6-4.  McLean and Cosby were state semifinalists.
  • In 5-A, Hickory d Freeman 6-4.  Stone Bridge and the surprising Freedom-South Riding semi finalists.
  • In 4-A, Hanover d Millbrook 7-1.
  • In the smaller classifications, Loudoun Valley won 3-A, Virginia High won 2-A and Northumberland won 1-A.

2013: AAA: Hanover d Great Bridge. Hanover’s super-junior Derek Casey (committed to UVA) outlasts Great Bridge and their 1st round talent Connor Jones (now attending UVA after spurning a likely late 1st round draft position).  Lake Braddock and Oakton beaten in the semis.

2012: AAA: Lake Braddock d Kellam 4-0. Lake Braddock lost to West Springfield in the regional title game but then blitzed to a state championship.

2011: AAA: Great Bridge d South County in the state final, giving the powerful South County its first and only loss on the season after starting the season 28-0.  Lake Braddock was the regional finalist and lost to Great Bridge in the state quarters.

2010: AAA: West Springfield d Woodbridge in the final, giving Woodbridge its only loss on the year. WT Woodson regional finalist.

Complete history of Virginia HS Champions: from VHSL’s website.  Covers all sports and has results for a century.  Lots of fun to dig through.  Note: if this link fails, its because VHSL has moved it yet again; I have an updated copy of the history books in PDF format.


That wraps up Virginia, the last local state to play its tourneys.

Written by Todd Boss

June 11th, 2018 at 10:54 am

Nats Pitching depth to now be tested…

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It sounds like its Fedde-time. Photo via minorleagueball.com

It sounds like its Fedde-time. Photo via minorleagueball.com

Well, we can’t really seem to go a season without a Stephen Strasburg injury … and this annual affair hit us over the weekend, with Strasburg looking ineffective, getting pulled, going for an MRI and quickly hitting the 10-day D/L with “right shoulder inflammation.”

This comes on the quick heels of two other SP issues for this team:

  • miracle MLFA off-season signing Jeremy Hellickson yanking his hamstring and exiting precisely one batter into his friday start, also hitting the D/L.
  • Off-season SP depth re-signing Edwin Jackson opting out of his minor league deal and departing the team (he signed with Oakland soon after).

So, it seemed like we could stand the absence of Hellickson thanks to the schedule over the next week and a half (plenty of off-days and no need for a 5th starter), and since his injury is listed as “mild” meaning he may only miss the minimum time … but with the loss of Strasburg we’ll need to reach into our depth.  So who’s getting the call?

(oh, btw on top of this, on 6/9/18 Brandon Knitzler strained his forearm and seems likely to be at least unavailable for a bit, if not on his way to the D/L too, so they’re needing reinforcements stat.  He was officially put on the D/L just after posting this on 6/10/18, resulting in both Trevor Gott and Wander Suero getting their tickets for a DC return…).

We’ve now seen all three of our non-active roster 40-man starters get MLB action this year … and they looked promising enough to have the loss of Jackson or even the presence of Tommy Milone in AAA seem like after-thoughts.  So who gets the call to cover for Strasburg?  Options:

  1. Erick Fedde: got one spot-start this year and looked solid: he gave up 3 runs in 5 2/3rds but pitched a lot better than his stat line.  He hasn’t looked as great for Syracuse; a 4.76 ERA and a 1.48 whip showing how he’s giving up too many base-runners.  Do you believe what you saw in the majors, or look at his AAA line for the year?  His most recent start: in Gwinnet, 5 1/3, 2runs, 9Ks but 10hits allowed.
  2. Austin Voth: has turned his career around, going from “next guy to get DFA’d” to a MLB call-up earlier this year (he did not appear).  His AAA ERA of 4.35 is a bit inflated; he’s giving up less than a hit/inning.  He had two bad outings in a row just after his call up/send-back, giving up 12 ER in 2 innings … but his last out ing (6/6/18) was stellar; 7IP, 4hits, 6Ks, 0 walks, 0 runs.  That’s the kind of stat line GMs like to see.
  3. Jefry Rodriguez: he was thrown into action when Hellickson went down and did awesome: 4 2/3 scoreless innings in his MLB debut.  Can’t ask for more than that.  He’s been good for AA Harrisburg this year; 12 starts, 3.57ERA, a bit wild though (24 walks in 63 innings).  Its interesting that he’s gotten MLB time but has yet to get pushed to AAA; perhaps they’re waiting for the typical Nats mid-season shuffle.  His most recent outing?  6/9/18: 5ip, 1 hit and just 65 pitches thrown (a hint?  why would he have gotten  yanked so quickly?)

You have to think it’ll be Fedde first.  Maybe what they do is promote Fedde, move Rodriguez to AAA.  Then if you need a second starter … it seems like Rodriguez has jumped Voth in the pecking order and is next in line.

It isn’t a very opportune time for this sudden loss of their second ace; their next nine games are AL East interleague play … which will be tough games even though both Toronto and Baltimore are struggling.  After that they get 6 games versus Philly interspersed with five more AL East games (including three at home against Boston) … so this might be a pretty crucial stage for this team.  Lets hope our depth stands up.

2018 Nats Draft Picks in the CWS Super Regionals

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For your weekend viewing, here’s a quick glance at the CWS Super Regional match-ups with the Nats draft picks still playing

Super Regional Nats Draftee list

Lots of top-end draft picks will be playing this weekend, just ahead of the MLB draft which starts on 6/12/17.  By Super Regional:

  • #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina: 10th rounder Carson Shaddy, the Arkansas starting 2B as well as our 15th rounder Evan Lee, a role-player on the team this year.
  • Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt: 3rd rounder Reid Schaller and 7th rounder Chandler Day, both working out of Vanderbilt’s rotation.

I’m favoring both Arkansas and Vanderbilt to win these series and continue to Omaha, not good news for these four guys in terms of getting them into a short-season squad.  Going to Omaha probably means we don’t see these guys until July.  At best case (a 2-and-out in Omaha) a player isn’t done playing until June 18th or so, while making the CWS finals extends their season until potentially June 27th.   You’d have to think these guys aren’t even thinking about meeting with the team to negotiate/sign deals until they’re done playing, then need a mental break/vacation before starting.  Heck, we didn’t even see some of our CWS-playing draft picks *play* for us last year (Cole Freeman, our 4th rounder, signed on July 7th after his college team LSU made the CWS finals … then debuted in Hagerstown in April of this  year).

Nonetheless; if you want to eyeball our new players, these are the games to watch.

Written by Todd Boss

June 8th, 2018 at 10:00 am

Nats 2018 Draft Class; Highlights of picks 11-40 and overall class review

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Another  year in the books, and another 40 guys now potentially part of the Nats organization.  Ok well really more like 32-33 new guys; that’s about how many i’d expect to sign out of this class.

We reviewed the top 10 more in-depth in the previous post since, historically, the most likely eventual MLB impact players are all top-end draft picks.  Lets zip through the rest of the draft and do some quick commentary.

  • Round 11: Frankie Bartow, U Miami’s closer.  I like this as an 11th rounder, which in today’s draft system are the first time you can grab someone of note and have a decent shot at them.  Bartow has some career accolades (freshman all-american, finalist for collegiate closer of the year, etc).  Yes he’s a college closer and that’s all he’ll be, but I like this as an 11th rounder.
  • Round 12: Graham Lawson, also an 8th/9th inning guy for South Carolina.  Not as accomplished as Bartow, but similar role.
  • Round 13: Cody Wilson, a corner OF from FAU.  Good power this year (14 homers), good speed (nearly 20 SBs).  Not a bad 12th rounder.   College Junior though so he has some leverage but it doesn’t seem like he slipped really.
  • Round 14: Aaron Fletcher.  a Senior lefty starter from U Houston.  Um, this was Houston’s Friday starter, who pitched a 4-hit, 0 earned run gem in the CWS regional opener to beat Purdue.   Why wasn’t he picked up already?  College numbers look great for a good team in a decent conference, conference pitcher of the year in 2018.  Perhaps its because he doesn’t have massive K/9 numbers.  Nonetheless, I like this pick.
  • Round 15: Evan Lee, a two-way draft eligible sophomore player for Arkansas.  Lefty reliever and a corner OF.  This is a weird one; he doesn’t have great numbers on either side of the ball, but he was an absolute beast coming out of HS (all-american on every service, Gatorade player of the state, etc).  I wonder if this is an over slot candidate.
  • Round 16: Carson Teel, College Jr lefty starter from Oklahoma State.  Entered the weekend rotation mid-season, gave them 11 starts, including getting the Win over USF in last weekend’s regional.  Decent numbers on the season skewed by one bad outing against West Virginia.  Another value pick.
  • Round 17: Ridge Chapman, coll JR mid-week starter for South Carolina; looks like a guy with some inflation in his stats; his BAA is .189 on the year but his ERA is 4.95.   He’s a Juco transfer into South Carolina and his Juco numbers were pretty impressive; perhaps an area scout remembered him from 2017 (when he was drafted late but chose not to sign).
  • Round 18: Jacob Rhinesmith, Coll Jr center fielder from Western Kentucky (which, i’d like to point out, has completely ripped off the Nats Curly-W on their uniforms…).  14  homers, 13 SBs as a center fielder?  Another Juco transfer with very gaudy 2017 numbers.  Listed as 6’1″ 195, lefty.  Maybe he sticks in center?
  • Round 19: Zach Linginfelter, RHP coll Sophomore from Tennessee.  Was in relief most of the season, then put into the rotation towards the end of the year.  Pitched well in the SEC tourney.
  • Round 20: Onix Vega, a Juco C from Broward College.  Gotta have catchers for your short season teams.

Past Round 20, I’ll just note interesting guys; see the table above for the next 20 picks fully.  From here down honestly most guys are just one-and-done short-season players.

  • Round 21: Ryan Tapani, 5th year Sr RHP from Creighton.  Looks like Creighton’s Friday starter with pretty gaudy numbers (10-1, 2.38 ERA on the year).  Just named 3rd team All-American by Collegiate Baseball Newspaper.  Son of former MLB player Kevin Tapani, a former pitcher who had more than 350 major league starts in a 13 year career. Nice 21st rounder senior sign.
  • Round 26: Colin Morse, a senior RHP from Shenandoah University by way of … McLean HS.  A local kid.  He seemed like a weekend starter for Shenandoah the last three  years, and he had starts in all four years of his career.
  • Round 30 Trey Vickers, senior SS from Wichita State.  Basically a four year starter at SS for a good baseball program.  Not flashy, but I like the career accomplishment for a higher profile program.
  • Two late round picks (Rounds 34 and 40 picks Tyler Baca and Michael Menhart both seem to be related to Nationals front-office staff (respectively,  Assistant Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Baca and Pitching Coordinator Paul Menhart).
  • Round 37 pick Cole Wilcox is an interesting throw-away pick; he was projected as a 1st rounder prior to the draft and was even tied to the Nats in some mocks, but he had a $3M price tag and so once he fell out of the 1st round he was guaranteed to go to school.  He announced his intent to honor his commitment to University of Georgia even before the Nats picked him, where he’ll be a draft eligible sophomore in two years’ time.

Its notable that every single pick the Nats had between rounds 25 and 32 (8 straight rounds) were College seniors.  And then, they ripped of five straight HS draftees from rounds 33-37, including a guy who was projected to go in the first round (Wilcox) in the 37th.   It is almost as if the team got to round 33 and was like, “eh, we’re good, pick a bunch of prep kids as favors to executives or who we have no chance of signing.”

Summary of the Draft class:

  • 23 Arms, 18 Position players, which adds up to 41 since we have a 2-way guy in Evan Lee.
  • 16 College Juniors (or draft-eligible Sophomores)
  • 14 College Seniors with no leverage
  • 3 Juco guys
  • 7 High Schoolers, 6 of which are basically throw-away picks in the late rounds.

Of the 30 4-year college guys:

  • 8 from SEC teams
  • 1 from Pac12 teams
  • 2 from ACC teams
  • 1 from Big10 teams
  • 2 from Big12 teams
  • 5 from non-major conference but still big-time Baseball programs (FAU, Houston, Sam Houston State, UConn, Wichita State)
  • 11 from smaller/non division 1 programs

Not surprisingly, a huge take from the SEC, which proved this year they’re unrivaled in terms of college baseball power.

Geographic Locations of picks:

  • 6 from Florida, 4 from Georgia
  • 4 from California, another 2 from Arizona
  • 4 From Texas, another 2 from Oklahoma and 2 from Arkansas
  • 3 from Tennessee, 2 from South Carolina and 2 from Kentucky
  • 5 from the Midwest (Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska)
  • 4 from random remaining states: one each from Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oregon and Virginia.

that’s 36 of the 40 picks from these 5 general areas.  We know that Florida, Georgia and California are the three heaviest areas for providing baseball talent, but normally we see a big focus in the Texas/Oklahoma area with our drafts.  Not this year; one quarter came from the two southeastern states this year.


 

Here’s a table with all 40 picks.

RoundOverallNamePositionCol/HSCollege or CmtmState
127Denaburg, MasonRHP (Str)HSFloridaFL
265Cate, TimLHP (Str)Coll JrUconnCT
3101Schaller, ReidRHP (Rel)Coll SoVanderbiltTN
4131Irvin, JakeRHP (Str)Coll JrOklahomaOK
5161Canning, GageOFColl JrArizona StateAZ
6191Karp, AndrewRHP (Str)Coll SrFlorida StateFL
7221Day, ChandlerRHP (Rel)Coll JrVanderbiltTN
8251Cropley, TylerCColl SrIowaIA
9281Driskill, TannerRHP (Str)Coll SrLamarTX
10311Shaddy, Carson2BColl SrArkansasAR
11341Bartow, FrankieRHP (Rel)Coll JrMiamiFL
12371Lawson, GrahamRHP (Rel)Coll JrSouth CarolinaSC
13401Wilson, CodyOF (Corner)Coll JrFlorida Atlantic UFL
14431Fletcher, AaronLHP (Str)Coll SrHoustonTX
15461Lee, EvanLHP (rel)/OFColl SoArkansasAR
16491Teel, CarsonLHP (Str)Coll JrOklahoma StateOK
17521Chapman, RidgeRHP (Str)Coll JrSouth CarolinaSC
18551Rhinesmith, JacobOF (CF)Coll JrWestern KentuckyKY
19581Linginfelter, ZachRHP (rel)Coll SoTennesseeTN
20611Vega, OnixCJC J1Broward CollegeFL
21641Tapani, RyanRHP (Str)Coll SrCreightonNB
22671Daily, ColeSSColl JrNotre DameIN
23701Hamilton, ColeCJC J1Linn Benton CCOR
24731Marinconz, KyleSSColl JrCal Poly San Luis ObispoCA
25761Vann, ChrisLHP (Str)Coll SrMercerGA
26791Morse, ColinRHP (Str)Coll SrShenandoah VA
27821O'Connor, Pablo2BColl SrAzusa Pacific UniversityCA
28851Chisolm, Blake1BColl SrSam Houston StateTX
29881Pogue, ColtonSSColl SrPittsburg State UKS
30911Vickers, TreySSColl SrWichita StateKS
31941Quintana, JonathanOFColl SrBarry UFL
32971Maley, AlecRHP (Str)Coll SrKentuckyKY
331001Haney, JackCHSCedartown HSGA
341031Baca, TylerOFHSThe Linfield School (CA)CA
351061Binelas, Alex1BHSOak Creek HS (WI)WI
361091Blessie, BoRHPHSRobert E Lee HS (TX)TX
371121Wilcox, ColeRHPHSHeritage HS (GA)GA
381151Milacki, BobbyRHPColl JrArizona Christian UAZ
391181Nardi, AndrewLHPJC J2Moorpark Col (CA)CA
401211Menhart, MichaelRHPHSRichmond Hill HSGA

2018 CWS tournament: Regional Results, Super-Regional Pairings

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CWS-2018_calendar-narrow

CWS coverage for 2018:

Now we’re through the Regionals and the field has been winnowed from 64 to just 16.

We’ll review the 16 regionals in order of the larger bracket.  Bold is the host and Bolded Red is the winner.  We’ll also highlight significant players and/or guys who are big names in the upcoming draft as we get to them.

It was a crazy set of regionals; by Sunday night only 6 of the 16 brackets were decided; a slew of regionals were forced to monday games (two weather delays involved).  And we saw one of the biggest upsets in recent memory.  Read on.


Regional Recaps

1. Florida region finish: Florida, FAU, Jacksonville, Columbia.  FAU gave #1 overall seed a scare, but ultimately lost in the final.  They did put a beat-down on Florida #2 Jackson Kowar, which may have cost him 25 slots in the draft.
16. NC State region finish: Auburn, NC State, Army, Northeastern.  #3 seed Northeastern does not do a good job defending critics of their getting an at-large bid.  NC State inexplicably loses to Army to open the regional and cannot overcome Auburn to lose on its home turf.

2. Stanford region finish: Cal-State Fullerton, Stanford, Baylor, Wright State.  The #2 overall national seed goes out to perennial power Fullerton, losing two close games.  Fullerton advances as a #3 regional seed, probably under-seeded when all is said and done, but Baylor really under-performed here.
15. Coastal Carolina region finish: Washington, UConn, Coastal Carolina, LIU-Brooklyn.   Host CCU out early; they lost to Washington in the winner’s bracket and then Leesburg’s Zack Hopeck gave them 5 solid innings in the elimination game but the bullpen fell apart against UConn.  Pac-12 Washington advances as the #3 regional seed.

3. Oregon State region finish: Oregon State, LSU, Northwestern State, San Diego State; surprise 2-and-out showing from the Mountain West champ.  Oregon State absolutely destroyed this regional, outscoring their opponents 35-4 in three games.  Look out for this team.
14. Minnesota region finish: Minnesota, UCLA, Gonzaga, Canisius.  Minnesota cruised through this regional.

4. Ole Miss region finish: Tennessee Tech, Ole Miss,  Missouri State, St. Louis; huge upset here, with tiny Tennessee Tech ousting the #4 national seed Ole Miss, coming back through the loser’s bracket and beating them in a double header to end the weekend.
13. Texas region finish: Texas, Indiana, TAMU, Texas Southern.  In the end, a chalk finish though Indiana worked their way through the loser’s bracket to get to the regional final before losing a close one.

5. Arkansas region finish: Arkansas, Dallas Baptist, Southern Miss, Oral Roberts; host Arkansas wasn’t pushed til the final, overcoming regional powerhouse Dallas Baptist to advance.
12. ECU region finish: South Carolina, UNC-W, ECU, Ohio State.  Another poor showing from the Big10 as #3 Ohio State falls to CAA team UNC-W in the elimination game.  UNC-W is no slouch team, but its still an upset.  They made the region final as a #4 seed before falling to the SEC power.

6. UNC region finish: UNC, Houston, Purdue, NC A&T: UNC won a slug-fest over regional powerhouse Houston 19-11 to advance.
11. Stetson region finish: Stetson, Oklahoma State, South Florida, Hartford; Stetson dominated this regional and looks like a tough out.

7. Florida State region finish: Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Samford, Florida State.  The #7 national seed goes 2-and-out in its own regional.  There was some talk about Fla State not being as deserving of a national seed as some of its other ACC brothers … but nobody expected this.
10. Clemson region finish: Vanderbilt, Clemson, St. Johns, Morehead State.  Tough regional puts two quality teams together, and the SEC powerhouse Vanderbilt advances.

8. Georgia region finish: Duke, Georgia, Troy, Campbell.  Duke came out of the loser’s bracket after a shock opening game loss to win the regional and send the national #8 seed home.
9. Texas Tech region finish: Texas Tech, Louisville Kent State, New Mexico State; this regional  goes exactly chalk, with Texas Tech never really troubled (it won its three games by 7,6,5).


Predictions versus Actuals

My Predictions: Florida, Auburn, Stanford, Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Minnesota, Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, South Carolina, UNC, Stetson,  Florida State, Clemson, Georgia, Texas Tech

Actuals; Florida, Auburn, Cal-State Fullerton, Washington,  Oregon State, Minnesota, Tennessee Tech, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, UNC, Stetson, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Duke, Texas Tech

I got just 9 of 16 right.


Summary of Regionals statistically:

  • Just 8 of 16 hosts advanced.
  • Four of the 8 national seeds fell: #2 Stanford, #4 Ole Miss, #7 Florida State, #8 Georgia
  • #10, #12, #15 and #16 also fell: #10 Clemson, #12 ECU, #15 Coastal Carolina and #16 NC State.
  • 8 number one seeds, 6 number two seeds, 2 number three seeds, and 0 number four seeds advance to the super regionals.  
  • 1 number of #4 seeds who didn’t finish 4th in their regional; Northwestern State, Dallas Baptist (a strong #4),  Florida Atlantic, UNC-Wilmington, Kent State, Army, Wright State
  • 2: number of #4 seeds to get opening wins.  Army beat #1 seed NC State in the opener, Wright State (who beat Florida State in the opener)
  • Most surprising regional winner: Tennessee Tech, even though they were a #2 regional seed.
  • First time Super Regionalists: Tennessee Tech and Stetson.

Conference Breakdowns of the teams in the Super Regionals:

  • SEC: Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
  • ACC: Duke, UNC
  • Big12: Texas Tech, Texas
  • Pac12: Oregon State, Washington
  • Big 10: Minnesota
  • Big West: Cal State Fullerton
  • Others: Tennessee Tech, Stetson

6 of the 16 remaining teams from the SEC; no other conference has more than two.  Interestingly though, all 6 SEC teams are matched up in the super regionals, guaranteeing 3 of the 8 CWS spots to be from the powerhouse conference.


Super Regional Matchups:  the higher ranked team is the host in each case.  I’ve organized this as they feed into CWS brackets, not 1-16 seeds.  In cases where neither ranked team advanced, the NCAA decides based on suitability of each site.  On 6/5/18 they announced the host sites and I’ve denoted them below.  Basically they decided to give the two more storied schools hosting duties.

  • #1 Florida vs Auburn
  • Duke vs #9 Texas Tech
  • #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina
  • Tennessee Tech vs #13 Texas
  • #3 Oregon State vs #14 Minnesota
  • #6 UNC  vs #11 Stetson
  • Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt (host)
  • Cal State Fullerton (host) vs Washington

 


Super Regional Thoughts/Predictions

  • #1 Florida vs Auburn: Florida took 2 of 3 at home against Auburn in the regular season, beating Casey Mize in the process.  
  • Duke vs #9 Texas Tech: Duke advanced while other, better ACC teams did not; I don’t know if they can top the powerful Texas Tech team.
  • #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina: Arkansas beat South Carolina in the SEC tourney opener; only time they played this year.
  • Tennessee Tech vs #13 Texas; Texas surprised me by coming out of a regional with an SEC team; you’d think they could overcome the tiny Tennessee Tech team.
  • #3 Oregon State vs #14 Minnesota.  Oregon State is my odds-on favorite to make the CWS final and Minnesota isn’t stopping them.
  • #6 UNC vs #11 Stetson: UNC is going to have to work for this one, as they likely get beat by Stetson’s ace Logan Gilbert on Friday.
  • Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt: Vandy swept Mississippi State on their turf late in the season, and probably sweep them this coming weekend.
  • Cal State Fullerton vs Washington; Fullerton just easily beat a better Pac-12 team in Stanford; do we think the 3rd place Pac-12 team is going to fare better?

 

Super Regional Star Power

Lots of top-end draft picks will be playing this weekend, just ahead of the MLB draft which starts on 6/12/17.  By Super Regional:

  • #1 Florida vs Auburn: #1 overall pick Casey Mize, top picks Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan India (#5 overall) from Florida.  Great pitching match-ups in here.  
  • Duke vs #9 Texas Tech: Griffin Conine
  • #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina
  • Tennessee Tech vs #13 Texas
  • #3 Oregon State vs #14 Minnesota; Nick Madrigal (#4 overall), plus 1st-day picks Trevor Larnach and Cayden Grenier on a stacked OSU team.
  • #6 UNC vs #11 Stetson: Stetson’s ace Logan Gilbert was #14 overall pick.
  • Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt
  • Cal State Fullerton vs Washington

CWS Predictions: Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Texas, Oregon State, Stetson, Vanderbilt, CS-Fullerton

This would probably favor a Florida-Oregon State final from the initial look of it, though Oregon State’s draw is much, much deeper than Florida’s potential path.


College CWS tournament references:

First Look: Quick overview of Nats top 10 Draft picks for 2018

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Mason Denaburg is our 2018 first rounder. Photo via usatodayhss.com

Mason Denaburg is our 2018 first rounder. Photo via usatodayhss.com

Here’s a first look at our top 10 draft picks, or where we stand after day 2.

At the top of round 1, the first four picks went pretty much as expected by the major pundits: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal.  From there we saw surprises, big names drop and some real value for teams later on day one.

How about the Nats picks?

RoundOverallNamePositionCol/HSCollege or CmtmState
127Denaburg, MasonRHPHSFloridaFL
265Cate, TimLHPColl JrUconnCT
3101Schaller, ReidRHPColl SoVanderbiltTN
4131Irvin, JakeRHPColl JrOklahomaOK
5161Canning, GageOFColl JrArizona StateAZ
6191Karp, AndrewRHPColl SrFlorida StateFL
7221Day, ChandlerRHPColl JrVanderbiltTN
8251Cropley, TylerCColl SrIowaIA
9281Driskill, TannerRHPColl SrLamarTX
10311Shaddy, Carson2BColl SrU Arkansas FayettevilleAR

Pick by Pick:  I’ve included draft board rankings if they’re ranked on the main prospect ranking sites I like (see links at bottom for the sources);

  • 1st Round/#27 overall: Mason Denaburg, prep RHP from FL high school with Florida commit. (#29 ESPN/Law, #24 MLBpipeline, #16 Fangraphs, #69 BDR, #13 20/80).  Draft Announcement link.  Mid-1st round pick before a bicep tendinitis issue dropped him to the point where most every major draft pundit was predicting the Nats would grab him.   Under-18 Team USA member.   This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.  Look for an over-slot bonus here to buy him out of his Florida committment/make up for his falling on the boards.  I like this pick; his fastball is mid-90s and lively, his mechanics are clean and easy, and his curve breaks very hard.   A nice profile with some good video is at Minorleagueball.com here.  A couple of the draft ranking boards really rated Denaburg, while others had him ranked about where he went.
  • 2nd Round/#65 overall: Tim Cate, LHP coll Jr from UConn. (#65 ESPN/Law, #62 MLBpipeline, #80 Fangraphs, #57 BDR, #79 20/80 ).  Draft announcement link.  pick I like: Cate missed time this year with an injury, which again cost him slots.  So the Nats get a guy perhaps a round early, tough to do in the second round.  I think this is a solid pick; he was on Team USA last summer at the same time Denaburg was on the under-18 squad.  The various rankings are all projecting him 2nd to 3rd round, the Nats picked him at #65 so that’s right in-line with projections.
  • 3rd Round/#101: Reid Schaller RHP Coll Soph from Vanderbilt (#71 ESPN/Law, #157 MLBPipeline); Vanderbilt reliever red-shirt freshman/sophomore who missed two whole years with TJ surgery … but sits mid 90s, hits 99 and pitched out of Vanderbilt’s bullpen this year.  36Ks in 26 innings, big arm but got hit this year.  Law is bullish on him and I wonder if he’s destined for the rotation or the pen.  As a red-shirt freshman I wonder if he’s signable: doe he want more time at school?  Of course, in today’s world, teams call ahead and basically ask a kid, “will you sign for $X?”  and if they say yes, they get picked.  This definitely isn’t a throw-away pick, but may be destined quickly for the bullpen.
  • 4th Round/#131: Jake Irvin, RHP Coll Jr. from Oklahoma (#76 ESPN/Law, #152 MLBPipeline): Oklahoma’s friday starter is huge (6’6″), sits in low 90s and had an excellent junior year.  No injury history, just a solid college guy with a high floor but low ceiling.
  • 5th Round/#161: Gage Canning OF (CF) Coll JR. from Arizona State (#106 MLBPipeline).  3-year starter with solid numbers at Arizona State, moved to CF this year from the corner.  Slashed .369/.426/.648 in the Pac-12 (a good but not SEC-level baseball conference).   Lots of Ks though; nearly one a game in college, which would be fine if it was accompanied by more homers.
  • 6th Round/#191: Andrew Karp, RHP Coll Sr From Florida State (NR).  Weekend starter for #7 CWS seeded Florida State with decent numbers on the year.  A College senior but I don’t think this is a dumped draft pick; perhaps he goes under-slot somewhat but he looks like a solid pick here.  Not ranked/rated anywhere but you’re not a weekend starter for a top-10 team unless you’re good.
  •  7th Round: #221: Chandler Day, RHP Coll Jr from Vanderbilt (NR).  Used kind of as a swing man by Vandy this year (he had 3 starts and 18 appearances), again with decent numbers.   Little else known; not ranked/discussed by the regular scouting circuits.
  • 8th Round/#251: Tyler Cropley, C Coll Sr from Iowa.  This one screams senior sign/bonus savings/make sure you get a catcher for your Short-A team.
  • 9th Round/#281: Tanner Driskill, RHP  Coll Sr from Lamar University in Texas.  Another low-leverage senior, but he was Lamar’s friday starter for most of the second half of this year.  I’ll take an Ace senior sign/9th rounder any day.
  • 10 Round/#311: Carson Shaddy, 2B Coll Sr from U Arkansas-Fayetteville.  Similar to Cropley, a senior sign middle infielder type for your Auburn 2018 squad.

First 10 rounds worth of picks breakdown:

  • 7 arms, 3 position player.perhaps
  • 9 college (0 juco), 1 high schooler.
  • At least 3 money-saving senior sign picks: their 8th, 9th and 10th rounders.
  • Heavy influence from major college programs: Florida, two from Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Florida State.

Conclusion: I liked the first two picks.  There were some more “famous” names available/on the board at #27 that some may have preferred, but the Nats clearly rated Denaburg as a value pick and got good value on him.  I like the Tate pick; a team-USA guy in the second round who has good stuff.  I like the 3rd rounder for value; big arm, not a ton of mileage, and I like getting a big-time team’s friday starter in the 4th round; it reminds me of their A.J. Morris pick a few years back in the same position.  They also picked up a weekend starter for a top-10 ACC team and the friday-ace for a smaller Texas team.

What do you guys think of it?


Draft Links of Use

  1. Mlbpipeline’s Draft Tracker for 2018 for the Nats picks.
  2. All 10 rounds of slot bonus figures for 2018
  3. BA’s draft database with search options by team, state, etc.
  4. Perfect Game to get profiles on more obscure draftees.

Draft Rankings referred to within here:

Local draft-prospects to keep an eye in for the 2018 draft

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Will Zack Hess get drafted or will he go back for another year of college? Photo via 247sports.

Will Zack Hess get drafted or will he go back for another year of college? Photo via 247sports.

Its draft day 2018!

Here’s one of the longer-running drafts in my system; I first created this post in July of 2015 and its now ready for publication just in time for tonight’s draft.  This is a quick guide to possible draft prospects with local ties.  Its kind of a “down” year for DC area prospects … with just a couple of UVA players (who are from elsewhere) getting 1st or 2nd round buzz this year.  This post has turned mostly into a list of “good” local kids, a few of which may get drafted.

The College players are mostly drawn from my 2015 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2015 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.  From that time frame, here’s the 2015 pre-season list and then the Post-Draft/post-signing coverage from 2015.  Pop-up guys plus non-MD/VA native players playing at MD/VA colleges are added as they become serious draft prospects.

Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2018

  • Zack Hess, RHP from LSU by way of Liberty Christian Academy; will be a draft-eligible sophomore and is already making noise early in the 2017 season as LSU’s mid-week starter.  2nd team all-american Freshman.  Standout in the 2017 CWS, with announcers gushing over his stuff (95-96 fastball with movement, power curve).  2nd team 2018 collegiate pre-season All American.
  • Jake McCarthy, OF UVA.  2nd team 2018 collegiate pre-season All American.
  • Daniel Lynch, LHP UVA: has come on strong and put himself into 2nd round consideration.
  • Nick Dunn, inf U Maryland: may be a 3rd/4th rounder.

Lesser Local College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties

(Also includes juniors not drafted in 2017, which will all be round 7-10 under-slot fodder, too many to name here).

  • UVA: Evan SperlingConnor Eason, Nathan Eikhoff, Grant Donahue, Cameron Simmons
  • U of Maryland: A.J. Lee, Hunter Parsons, Marty Costes
  • Liberty: Jack DeGroat (by way of Loudoun Valley HS), D.J. Artis
  • Virginia Tech: Nic Enright, Stevie Mangrum, John DeFazio, Paul Hall, Sam Fragale, Tom Stoffel
  • South Carolina: Cody Morris, Danny Blair
  • Wake Forest: Harvey Logan
  • VCU: Brody Cook
  • UNC-Asheville: Jordan Carr
  • Campbell: James Monaghan
  • Towson: Richie Palacios
  • George Washington: Isaiah Pasteur

DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2018; it is definitely a down year for local prep prospects; we may not see many drafted from the DC area, if any.  Also, my apologies if i’ve got the college commits wrong; these things change all the time and I didn’t have time to look everyone up in perfectgame.org.

  • Kody Milton, 1B from Severna Park HS.  Honorable All-Met in 2015 as a freshman.  Evoshield Canes 16-U for 2016.  Early commit to Maryland.  All-Met 2017 as a junior.  Anne-Arundal county POTY 2017 as a junior.  PGNationals 2017.  Evoshield National 17U summer/WWBA 2017.  Baltimore Sun All-Metro player of the year in 2017 as a junior.  3rd team All American ABCA in 2017 as junior.
  • Will Schroeder, RHP/SS from Loudoun County HS.  2016 Conference 21B Player of the Year, Region 4A West All-Region first team and 2016 VHSL 4A All-State first team as a sophomore.  Loudoun County POTY for 2016 as a sophomore.  Stars 16U for summer 2016.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.  WWBA with Stars baseball 2017 as a junior.  Early commit to UNC.  PGNationals 2017.   Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017.
  • Tyler Casagrande, OF from Paul VI via Leesburg; WWBA with Stars baseball 2017 as a junior, Visaa All State Division I in 2017.  2nd-team All-Met as jr in 2017.  Early commit to Arizona.  PGNationals 2017.  Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017
  • Cristian Sanchez, RHP/MIF from Paul VI via Centreville.  WWBA with Stars baseball 2017 as a junior.  Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017.  Early commit to Alabama, now UVA.
  • Wilson Ayers, RHP for Briar Woods.  VHSL All-state 5A as a junior in 2017.  Early commit to Navy.   Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017.
  • Jacob Steinberg RHP St. Johns in DC.  2nd team 2016 American Family All-DC as sophomore.  Early commit to Miami.  Diamond Skills Dodgers at 2016 Marietta/Cobb.  Evoshield Canes National 17-U team summer of 2017.
  • Brooks Bengston, OF from Georgetown Prep.  Evoshield 17U National team for WWBA 2017, High Point commit.
  • Joe Seidler, RHP Chesapeake AA.  2nd-team All-Met 2016 as a sophomore, 1st team All-Met in 2017 as a junior.  Playing summer ball for Mid-Atlantic Red Sox.  All-Anne-Arundal 2017 as junior.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior.
  • Carter Bosch, RHP from the Potomac School.  All-Met 2017 as a junior.   All PBR Virginia state finalist as a junior in 2017.  D-bat Elite summer team.
  • Trendon Craig, OF from DeMatha.  All-Met 2017 as a junior.  Perfect Game profile has him graduating 2019 though and attending Riverdale Baptist.
  • Logan Cooper, OF for Loudoun Valley.  2016 Region 4A West All-Region first team as a sophomore.  2016 VHSL 4A All-State second team as a sophomore.  All Loudoun County 2016.  No PG profile.
  • Kyle Novak, 2B/SS from Madison HS in Vienna.  #3 hitter for the 2015 6-A champion Madison as a *freshman*.  First-team 6A Conference 6 and 2nd team All 6-A North region in 2016.  Repeated as 2nd team all 6-A North region as a junior.  Early commit to JMU.  Stars 17U Red at WWBA 2017
  • Jake Nielsen: RHP from Madison HS in Vienna.  2017 pitcher of the year and 6-A all region as a junior.  Son of former Madison star from the late 1980s Mike Nielsen, my former some-times teammate.
  • Eric Lingenbach, SS from Oakton HS.  2017 6-A all-region as a junior, huge walk-off homer to win the 6A title for Oakton.
  • Jose Rivera, SS from Riverdale Baptist.  2nd-team All-Met as jr in 2017.  Stars baseball summer team.
  • Corey Rosier, util from Riverdale Baptist.  2nd-team All-Met as jr in 2017.
  • Brady Pearre, RHP from Poolesville.    2nd-team All-Met as jr in 2017.
  • John Eames OF Langley.  6-A North all-region honorable mention in 2016.  1st team all-region as a Junior.  2nd team all 6A State as a junior in 2017.
  • Flynn Hopkins OF Robinson.  First-team 6A Conference 5 and 6-A North all-region honorable mention in 2016.
  • Jimmy Baumstark RHP Osbourn Park.   First-team 6A Conference 8 and 6-A North all-region honorable mention in 2016 as a sophomore.
  • Blaze O’Saben, SS Fauquier: A first-team 4A Conference 22 selection in 2016 as a sophomore
  • Justin Taylor, SS Flint Hill.  First team all-VISAA Division I in 2016 as a sophomore.
  • Matt Thomas, 3B Lake Braddock: Second-team 6A Conference 7 selection in 2016 as a sophomore.
  • Jack Weeks. Paul VI Catholic (formerly of Herndon HS).  Starter for VISAA-I state finalist in 2016 as a sophomore.

Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.

  • Adam Hackenberg, C from the Miller School (was Fork Union HS).  First team all-VISAA Division I in 2016 as a sophomore.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.  #50 on Keith Law’s top 100 draft prospects.  Committed to Clemson.
  • Ryan Archibald 3B from John Carroll HS in Churchville.  PGNationals 2017.  Evoshields 17U National summer team for WWBA 2017.  Early commit to UMaryland, now committed to Arizona.  Gatorade MD player of the year 2018.
  • Cade Huntgate, RHP/SS for Abingdon.  Evoshield Canes 16-U 2016, Committed to Florida State.  Gatorade VA player of the year 2018.
  • Jack Dragum, RHP Hanover (Richmond).  Starter as a sophomore on great 2016 team.  Evoshield Canes 16-U 2016. Early commit to UVA.  Evoshield 17U team at 2016 Marietta/Cobb.  All-Richmond 2017 as junior.  Evoshield National 17-U summer 2017.
  • Wesley Clarke, C with Liberty Christian Academy.  2016 Region 4A West All-Region second team as a sophomore.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.  Evoshield National 17U team for WWBA 2017.  South Carolina commit.
  • Stephen Pelli, RHP for St. Marys in Arnold, Maryland.  Evoshield Canes 16-U 2016. Evoshield National 17U  for WWBA 2017.  PGNationals 2017.  Early commit to Virginia Tech, now North Carolina.
  • Matt Sykes, LHP/OF from the Miller School in Richmond.   Evoshields 17U National summer team for WWBA 2017.
  • Tevin Tucker,  SS from Prince George  HS in Prince George VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.  Second team VHSL all 5A in 2016 as a sophomore.  All-Richmond 2017 as junior.  Early WVU commit.
  • Nick Zona, SS from Hanover in  Mechanicsburg/Richmond.  At Area Code Games 2017, the SOLE DC/MD/VA kid there.  Early commit to JMU.
  • Clay Lloyd, C with Halifax.  VHSL 1st team all State 5A as a junior.
  • Zach Thomas SS with Eastern View HS:  VHSL 1st team all State 4A as a junior.
  • Kyle Horton, OF with Liberty Christian Academy.  Starter as a sophomore on great 2016 team.   PGNationals 2017.  Evoshield Canes National 17U team for WWBA 2017: South Carolina commit, now Charleston Southern
  • Tristan McDonough, RHP from Decatur HS.  PGNationals 2017.  Early commit to Miami??
  • Connor Butler, 2B/SS from Western Branch.  All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.  Tidewater Orioles summer team.  All 6A Virginia State in 2017 as a junior.
  • Jon Sawyer, RHP /OF for Atlantic Shores Christian.  All Tidewater 2017 as junior, early commit to ODU.
  • Cam Nolet, RHP from St. Marys.  Anne-Arundal county POTY 2017 as a junior.
  • Austin Gault, OF Poquoson, Soph.  3-A East all-region 1st team in 2016.
  • Gage Williams, RHP Nansemond River.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
  • Cory O’Shea, ? position on Mills Godwin.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
  • Scott McDonough: ? position on Mills Godwin.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
  • John Kish, RHP for Cosby.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
  • Ethan Williams, C for Cosby.  Starter on excellent 2016 team as a sophomore.
  • Tyler Bailey, INF/RHP for Thomas Dale in Chester (Richmond), VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
  • Tucker Bushby, OF/LHP for James River in Midlothian (Richmond), VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
  • Wes Glass, 1b/LHP for Riverside HS in Leesburg VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
  • Michael Peterson, OF from Prince George  HS in Prince George VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
  • Scooter Ray, C Manchester HS in Chesterfield, VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.
  • Gregory Ryan, SS Benedictine HS in North Chesterfield, VA.  Virginia Cardinals 16-U for 2016.  Early commit to Pittsburgh.
  • Tomas Sanchez, OF from Dinwiddie.  2016 VHSL 4A All-State first team as a sophomore.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.
  • Cole Harness, 1B from Eastside HS.  First team VHSL all 1A in 2016 as a sophomore.
  • Jacob Council, OF from Windsor HS.  First team VHSL all 1A in 2016 as a sophomore.
  • Tanner Bailey, OF from Fort Chiswall HS.  First team VHSL all 1A in 2016 as a sophomore.
  • Jonathan Walton, 1B from Prince George HS.  First team VHSL all 5A in 2016 as a sophomore.
  • Thomas Francisco, 2b from Abington HS.   First team VHSL all 3A West Region and all 3-A state in 2016 as a sophomore.  All PBR DC/VA team 2016.
  • Nic Kent, INF, St. Anne’s-Belfield (Charlottesville) . American Family 2016 2nd team All-Virginia as a sophomore.
  • Chance Davis, Inf Fort Chiswell, All PBR DC/VA team 2016.
  • Kris Artis, RHP from Grandby HS in Norfolk. All 6A South in 2017 as a junior, 2nd team All 6A State in 2017.  Early commit to ODU.
  • Ty Hanchy, C from Grandby HS in Norfolk.  2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
  • Xavier Anderson, OF from Grandby HS in Norfolk.  2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
  • Shane Stinard, OF from Cox HS in Va Beach.  2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
  • Andrew Melnyk, LHP from Kellam HS in Va Beach.   2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
  • Skylar Petry, RHP from James RIver HS in Richmond.   2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
  • Ethan Williams, C from Cosby HS in Moseley/Richmond.   2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.  Evoshields Mid-Atlantic summer team.
  • James Deloatch, OF from Grandby HS in Norfolk.  2nd team All 6A South in 2017 as a junior.
  • Pearce Bucher, 3B from Sherando.  2nd team all VHSL 4A as a junior in 2017.
  • Maxwell Costes, Inf from Gilman.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior.
  • A.J. Holcomb, OF from Loyola-Blakefield.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior, early commit to Va Tech.
  • Austin Koehn, RHP from Patterson Mill.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior.
  • J.P. Murphy, OF from Calvert hall.  Baltimore All-Metro 2017 as a junior, early commit to High Point.

 

Sources used

 

Written by Todd Boss

June 4th, 2018 at 8:17 am