Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Baseball’s Off-Season Calendar of Events

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Welcome to the off-season.  Here’s data pulled from my 2014-15 off-season calendar, available in spreadsheet form on the Links to the right-hand side of the blog.

I don’t know all the exact dates right now (some of the events slightly move from year to year), and I havn’t dug up the exact dates for the 2015 events yet, but these are good approximations.  In the google doc, the approximated dates are color coded.

We’re into the very critical time period immediately following the end of the World Series, and we’re already seeing player decisions.  Stay tuned!

Date Event
9/28/2014 Last day of regular season
9/30/2014 Beginning of 2014 Post season (NL WC game)
9/30/2014 End of Year BBWAA award ballots due (prior to beginning of post season)
10/20/2014 Sporting News Comeback Players of the Year AL and NL
10/20/2014 Sporting News Rookies of the Year AL and NL
10/21/2014 Sporting News Managers of the Year AL and NL
10/22/2014 Sporting News All Star Teams of the year
10/23/2014 Sporting News Player of the Year, MLB
10/23/2014 Gold Glove finalists announced
10/24/2014 Roberto Clemente Award given
10/25/2014 Hank Aaron Awards given
Oct 28th, 2014 Fielding Bible Awards given
10/30/14 Hall of Fame “Veterans Committee” releases ballot.
10/29/2014 Last actual day of 2014 World Series; official end of 2014 season
10/30/2014 (WS end + 1) MLB Coaches contracts expire
10/30/14 (WS end + 1) MLB announces nominees for GIBBYs
10/30/14 (WS end + 1) Official start of FA period (8am CST the day after the last game of the WS)
11/1/14 (WS end + 3) Team and player options must be decided three days after the end of the World Series.
11/3/2014 (WS end + 5) Clubs have to re-set their 40-man rosters, moving all 60-day DL players back to active.
11/3/2014 (WS end + 5) 5pm: Deadline to make Qualifying offers for your own FAs (average of top 125 salaries or $15.3M for 2014).  5 days after end of WS
11/3/2014 (WS end + 5) End of “Quiet Period.”  Teams have “exclusive” negotiating rights with their own free agents during this period.
11/3/2014 (WS end + 5) 5 days after WS ends: Free agent filing period and exclusive negotiating window ends at 12:01 a.m. ET. Free agents can sign with any team.
11/3/2014 (WS end + 5) Free Agency granted to all eligible Minor League free agents (5 days after the end of the WS).  Eligibility done on service time; 6 years ML service for college draftees or 7 years ML service for HS draftees or free agents under the age of 18.
11/4/2014 Rawlings AL & NL Gold Glove Announcements
Nov 5th 2014 MLB Comeback Players of the Year AL and NL
Nov 4th, 2014 MLBPA announces “Players Choice” awards: Player of the year, Comeback Player of the year, etc
Nov 5th, 2014 BBWAA Award Nominees announced on MLB networks
Nov 6th, 2014 Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger Awards
Nov 7th, 2014 Wilson Defensive Player of the Year awards, given by MLB to best defensive player on each club.
11/10/14 – 11/13/14 GM Meetings, Phoenix, AZ for 2014
11/10/14 (WS end + 12) 12 Days after WS ends: Players must accept or reject Qualifying Options
11/12/14 – 11/18/14 NPB Japan World Series
Nov 11th, 2014 Sporting News Executive of the Year announced
11/10/2014 AL, NL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Awards
11/11/2014 AL and NL Manager of the Year
11/12/2014 AL and NL Cy Young
Nov 13-14th, 2014 Owner Meetings, ?? Location for 2014
11/13/2014 AL and NL Most Valuable Player
11/19/2014 Day to file reserve lists for all Major and Minor League levels.  In other words, Last day to add players to 40-man to protect them from the Rule5 Draft
Nov 26th, 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot for 2014 class officially released
Nov ?, 2014 Rolaids Relief Man Announced
12/2/14 Midnight: Deadline for teams to Tender contracts to arbitration eligible players and/or unsigned players.  If not tendered, those players immediately become free agents.   This is the non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players
Dec 3rd, 2014 Baseball America announces its Executive of the Year
Dec 5th, 2014 Last date to request outright waivers to assign player prior to Rule 5 Draft
12/8/14 – 12/11/14 Winter Meetings, San Diego, CA
12/8/14 Hall of Fame “Golden Era” (1947-1972) vote announced, San diego
Dec 9th, 2014 Last date to outright a player prior to Rule 5 Draft
Dec 9th, 2014 Hall of Fame “Veterans Committee” officially announces the results of its voting
Dec 9th, 2014 MLB announces winners of 21 “GIBBY” awards (greatness in Baseball yearly awards)
Dec 10th, 2014 J.G. Taylor Spink Award voting results announced
12/11/2014 Rule 5 Draft.  Occurs at Winter meetings
Dec 13th, 2014 MLB Balloting results announced for Hall of Fame Ford C. Frick Award for excellence in baseball broadcasting
Dec 31st, 2014 Deadline for BBWAA ballots for Hall of Fame voting.
Jan 8th, 2015 Hall of Fame BBWAA voting announced; the Hall of Fame class of 2015
1/13/2015 Salary arbitration filing Date
1/16/2015 Salary arbitration figures exchanged (1pm)
2/1/15 – 2/21/15 Salary arbitration hearings (actual hearing date per player picked at random), Phoenix AZ
Feb 13th, 2015 Nats Mandatory Spring Training reporting date for Pitchers, Catchers, Injured players
Feb 20th, 2015 Mandatory Spring Training reporting date for position players
Feb 28th, 2015 First Spring Training Game for the Nats
Mar 2-11th, 2015 Contracts of unsigned players who are not yet eligible for Arbitration may be renewed
March 13th, 2015 Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days.
March 27th, 2015 Deadline to request unconditional release waivers without having to pay the player’s full salary or $100k bonus for certain types of veterans
March 31st, 2015 2015 Season Opener; Opening Day 2015; active rosters must be reduced to 25 players and 40-man rosters must be established
4/5/2015 Opening Night 2015: Teams tbd
4/6/2015 Nats Opening Day 2015

Written by Todd Boss

October 30th, 2014 at 5:12 pm

Posted in Baseball in General

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Madison Bumgarner: WS MVP … and couldn’t beat the Nats

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Bumgarner was other-worldly this post-season.  Photo via thebiglead.com

Bumgarner was other-worldly this post-season. Photo via thebiglead.com

I’d just like to point out, for the record, that the Nats NLDS Game 3 win over Madison Bumgarner was the ONLY game this post season that the Giants lost, when Bumgarner pitched.

A quick glance at his Baseball-Reference.com post-season game log is pretty sick:

  • Complete game 4-hit shutout of a very hot Pittsburgh team in the WC game.
  • Took the loss by giving up 3 runs (2 earned) in 7 innings against the Nats
  • Threw 7 2/3 shutout innings over St. Louis in Game 1 of the NLCS.
  • Gave up 3 runs on 5  hits in 8 innings against St. Louis in Game 5 of the NLCS (his only no decision)
  • Gave up 3 hits in game 1 of the World Series
  • Threw another complete game 4-hit shutout in game 5 of the WS
  • Came back on 2 days rest to throw 5 innings of 2-hit ball to earn the “save” in game 7.

Wow.  Pretty much the definition of the MVP.  Talk about a sick post-season.

Still couldn’t beat the Nats though ;-)

Let the off-season begin!

 

Written by Todd Boss

October 30th, 2014 at 11:56 am

Wagner’s Q&A: how I’d have answered the questions he took

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Zimmermann's status is on everyone's mind.  Photo Unk.

Zimmermann’s status is on everyone’s mind. Photo Unk.

I used to love answering the questions that MLB.com beat writer Bill Ladson would post.  But Ladson hasn’t done such a column in months, and the other outlet for such a post (Tom Boswell) usually is populated with too many non-baseball questions to be worth addressing.  So today WP beat reporter James Wagner took a crack at a Q&A session and I thought it’d be fun to do a version of his Q& (my) A.

As with previous posts, I write my response before reading his and edit the questions for clarity/conciseness.

Q: What was the Nats’ final record against winning teams & how did it compare to the other playoff teams?

A: Wagner summarized the answer well; the Nats ended up 23-23 against winning teams.  To show you how useless this stat is in predicting the playoffs, the team with the best record (the Orioles) was swept and the WS matchup features the Giants, who had a losing record against winning teams.  Once again we learn that the post-season is about getting hot (or in the Nat’s case, disappearing) at the right time.  Wagner did the same analysis.

Q: Will the Nats turn to Tyler Clippard as the 2015 closer?

A: Doubtful.  Despite Drew Storen‘s second playoff meltdown, he’s likely the closer in 2015 on the strength of his excellent 2014 season.  Tyler Clippard‘s of more use in generally higher-leverage 8th inning situations, and likely continues in that role.  This has to be a bummer for Clippard, who enters his last arbitration argument without the benefit of the lucrative saves, but who is also just as likely to cash in when he hits free agency with a team looking for a reasonably priced closer.  I’ll bet he can get a 3yr/$24M deal as someone’s closer.  He is a fly-ball guy (not optimal as a 9th inning solution) but fly-ball pitchers definitely play well in pitcher parks.  He’d make an excellent closer for most any team on the west coast.  Wagner agrees.

Q: Why not keep both LaRoche and Zimmerman and platoon them at first base?

A: Because that’s an awful lot of payroll to dedicate to a platoon.  LaRoche likely gets $15M/year, Zimmerman is set to earn $14M next year.  Both are middle-of-the-order bats who need to play every day.  Unfortunately we don’t have a DH, else you’d re-sign LaRoche immediately and they’d split time at 1B/DH like most every other DH in the AL.  LaRoche is getting one last crack at free agency and could get another 2 year deal (rumors have him as a great fit in Milwaukee).  I think sticking Zimmerman at 1B makes the most sense considering the description of his shoulder at this point (he used the phrase “bone on bone” to describe the state of his arm at this point).  In fact, I think Zimmerman makes a great first baseman, immediately becomes a Gold Glove candidate, and (hopefully) stays healthy.  Wagner makes the same points.

Q: How about Steven Souza as our 2B solution?

A: Souza started his pro career as a third baseman … and was moved to the outfield by the time he was 22.  I’m guessing there’s a reason for that.  I don’t see him coming back to the infield, either at 3b or 2B.  He’s way too big to play second base effectively (he’s 6’4″ 225); if I was forced to play him in the infield, i’d suffer with him at 3B and stick Rendon back at second.  But that’d be a waste of Rendon’s defensive talents at the hot corner; we’re much better off installing him at his natural position and finding another 2B alternative.  None of this really talks about what the team *should* do with Souza; he’s more or less blocked for 2015 (as we’ve discussed to death) but has nothing left to prove in AAA.  His best case scenario is an injury in the Nats 2015 outfield, which gives him playing time.  Wagner  points out Souza’s poor defensive record in his time at third.

Q: Should we care about the MASN outcome?

A: Uh, yes.  The Nats could easily expand payroll with a decision and a guaranteed income stream, and we’d not be hearing about how they “have to” let some of their core players walk because they can’t afford them.  The MASN issue has gone on way too long, and it seems like it is getting ready to affect both the Nats and the Oriole’s business operations soon.  Wagner agrees.

Q: Do players and broadcasters read blogs and the press?

A: I hope not.  We’re not professionals; we don’t have day in-day out access, intimate knowledge of the team’s comings and goings, nor insight into reasons that may be behind a player’s cold streak (does he have the flu?  Is he nursing a slight sprain that nobody knows about?)  I don’t think any good comes of professional players reading about themselves.  If a player called out something I wrote derogatory i’d probably profusely apologize and retract it.  Wagner says players sometimes read about themselves in the press … but that if they don’t, they’re likely to hear about it from family/friends/agents anyway.

Q: Which of the bench players (Frandsen, Hairston, Schierholz, McLouth) will be back and who will most likely leave?

A: Well, McLouth is still under contract for 2015, so he’ll at least start the  year with the team (whether he finishes depends on whether he can regain some value).  I’d guess that the other three are gone.  None of the three hit particularly well for us, and all three are replaceable by internal promising candidates.  Frandsen probably has the best chance of sticking around since he’ll be so cheap (he made $900k last year and is arb-eligible); he’ll be an interesting tender-deadline candidate.

Your 5-man bench needs a catcher (Lobaton), a guy who can play both 2b and SS (Espinosa, if he’s not the 2B starter), an outfielder who can cover center (McLouth), a utility guy who can play multiple positions (Frandsen fits  here), and then a big bopper who can pinch hit.  This last spot has been held by the likes of Tyler Moore, Chad Tracy, Matt Stairs, Jonny Gomes in the past few years.  In 2015 it makes more sense to have Souza in this spot.  Only problem is that it helps if this last bench spot is a lefty.  We’ll see how the transactions play out this off-season.

Q: If you must chose between Zimmermann and Desmond, whom do you chose?

A: Desmond.  Harder position to fill, less in the minor league pipeline, probably cheaper too thanks to Desmond’s sub-par (for him) 2014 season.  Zimmermann seems likely to earn nearly $20M/year at this point, which is going to be too rich for this team, and there’s ready-made replacements in the upper minors (A.J. Cole, Blake Treinen, Taylor Jordan) ready to step in immediately after he departs.  A better question might be this: do the Nats flip Zimmermann this off-season for something better than a compensation pick, admitting to themselves they won’t be able to extend him?  It makes 2015 team weaker obviously, but also could ease the transition to the next “phase” of this team that starts in 2016-2017.  Wagner agrees, but also mentions that Doug Fister plays into this decision too.

Q: If the Nats make it back to the postseason next year, can you envision them carrying a speed first guy like Rafael Batista or Wilmer Difo on their roster a la the Kansas City Royals?

A: No.  Williams is old-school and made it pretty clear that he was managing  his post-season team the same way he managed his regular-season team.  For better or worse.  The makeup of this team isn’t the same as the Royals, who have focused on speed, defense and bullpen strength to power their way through the post-season.  The Nats are a starter-first, adequate but fragile offense second.  Wagner isn’t as dismissive as I am.

Q: Why not find a FA third baseman and move Rendon to second?

A: A completely logical idea that we’ve talked to death.  Definitely on the table.  Wagner puts out some names that likely are going to be too expensive for the Nats to really consider.

Q: If the Nats offered Zimmermann a big extension and he declined it, could you see the Nats trading him?

A: If I were the GM, I’d consider it yeah.  You take a step back in 2015 to set yourself up for 2016 and 2017 with the right deal.  Maybe you flip Zimmermann for the 2b/3b player you need and a prospect or two further away, save some payroll and provide more continuity.  My reading the tea leaves though?  I don’t see this team doing it; they’ll “keep the band together” for one more run with this crew in 2015, and then make adjustments for 2016 depending on who they can sign and who walks.  Wagner thinks its possible, but also cautions that the 2015 salary ($16.5M) and just one year of control will limit what the Nats get back.  A very fair point.

One Team Hall of Famers: a dying breed? (2014 Jeter retirement update)

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Jeter waves to the fans in his last home game.  AP photo via abcnews.com

Jeter waves to the fans in his last home game. AP photo via abcnews.com

In June of 2013, in the midst of the Mariano Rivera retirement tour, I posted about one-team Hall of Famers and whether they were a dying breed in modern baseball.  I figured that they were, that free agency had ruined the iconic “one team” home-town legend that we grew up knowing (especially in DC, with Cal Ripken Jr. just up the road).

Now that Derek Jeter has wound down own his 2014 retirement tour, and the fact that we’ve seen some recent player movement that has eliminated some HoF candidates from being one-teamers, I thought this was a good topic to pick back up.

Here’s a quick glance at the landscape of one-team Hall of Fame candidates in the game today.

  • Recently Retired One-team Hall of Fame locks: Chipper Jones, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter

You have to think each of these three guys is a first ballot Hall of Famer, and each was a one-team guy.

  • Recently retired one-team Hall of Fame candidates: Todd Helton

I’m not sure Helton will make the Hall; if Larry Walker can’t get in because people think his numbers were inflated by Colorado’s home park, then Helton will be in the same boat.  His embarrassing, ridiculous DUI arrest in mid 2013 while driving to get lottery tickets (despite the fact that he has more than $160M in career earnings just in salary alone) certainly won’t help his case.

  • Active HoF one-team promising candidates: Joe Mauer, Justin Verlander, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Dustin Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Mike Trout

If Verlander finished out his contract just being a 14-11 guy each year, he’d probably end up with 250 wins to go with his Cy Youngs, MVP, and Rookie awards.  People will remember how good a hitter Mauer is when the time comes.  Yes, I think Utley is on track to be a hall of famer; he’s been hurt for so long that people have forgotten how good he is.  No I don’t think Rollins is a HoFamer right now, but he deserves to be in this category not the “borderline” category.  Now, not all of these guys are guarantees to stick with their current teams (especially McCutchen, who eventually cashes in on a big contract that Pittsburgh cannot afford), but for now this is the list.  Almost all of these guys managed to be excellent players for huge-payroll teams, meaning that they can easily finish their careers without having to move on.

Yeah I put Mike Trout on this list.  Did you know that Trout already has as much career bWAR (28.3) by age 22 that Paul Konerko has for his entire 18-year career??  If Trout flamed out before the age of 30 he’d have the same case for inclusion that Sandy Koufax had, and he’d be in.

I cannot see the likes of Rollins, Utley or Pedroia moving teams at this point; do you view Pedroia as a HoFame candidate?  He’s got more than 40 bWAR by the age of 30, an MVP vote, two rings and a bunch of All-Star and Golden Gloves.

  • Active Borderline HoF one-team guys who need to step it up: David Wright, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Zimmermann

These are all perennial all-stars, kings of the game, but none of them really screams out “Hall of Famer” right now.  I may be slightly down on these guys (especially Hamels, who might be more than borderline right now).  I’ve thrown Zimmermann in there thanks to his second stellar season in a row and his no-hitter; he’s likely to have another top 5 Cy Young finish in 2014 and with a few more such seasons he may put himself into the conversation.  Of course, the odds are that he departs the Nats after 2015, so he may be off the list anyway.

  • Active One-team players who have taken themselves out of HoF candidacy lately: Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jered Weaver, Ryan Howard

I used to think Zimmerman was on track, especially after his monster 2009 season.  Now I think he’s destined to be just a middle of the order solid hitter on teams with better hitters surrounding him.  Think Scott Rolen.  Braun may be one of the best players in the NL, but getting caught with PEDs not once but twice will prevent him from ever being enshrined no matter what kind of career he puts together.  The fall-off of the San Francisco duo of pitchers speaks for itself; what the heck happened to Lincecum?  Similarly, Weaver now looks like a guy who peaked during his expected peak years and now is settling into being a slightly better-than-average pitcher.  Fair?  Maybe not, but his ERA+ for 2014 is 104; not exactly Kershaw-territory.

  • Recently traded/free agent one-team HoF promising candidates: Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, Robinson Cano,  Justin Morneau, David Price, Jon Lester, Prince Fielder

I’m not saying all these guys are HoF locks right now, just that they’re top players who have made big moves recently to break up a string of years with one team.

Conclusion?   I think there’s plenty of one-team candidates out there.  So no, one-team hall-of-famers aren’t going to be a dying breed.  Teams are locking up their marquee players to long-term contracts earlier and earlier, meaning the likelihood of having big-name one-team players present their cases to the voters is that much higher in the modern baseball climate.

Did I miss anyone worth talking about?

 

2014 playoff team payroll analysis

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An annual post done at the end of each season.  Here’s 2013′s version.

Money can’t buy me love.  And, in baseball, more and more we’re seeing that Money also can’t buy playoff spots.  Of the ten teams that made the 2014 MLB playoffs, only half of them were among the top 10 spenders in terms of opening day payroll (payroll numbers courtesy of Spotrac.com).  Here’s the full list:

Team SpotRac Opening Day Payroll SpotRac Opening Day Rank Final W/L W/L Rank Playoff Status Payroll/Record Delta
Los Angeles Dodgers $232,899,930 1 94-68 4 NL West -3
New York Yankees $194,460,757 2 84-78 13 -11
Philadelphia Phillies $177,729,966 3 73-89 22 -19
Detroit Tigers $163,285,500 4 90-72 5 AL Central -1
Boston Red Sox $155,912,125 5 71-91 25 -20
San Francisco Giants $148,589,474 6 88-74 8 NL WC -2
Los Angeles Angels $146,647,750 7 98-64 1 AL West 6
Washington Nationals $133,319,078 8 96-66 2 NL East 6
Toronto Blue Jays $133,070,557 9 83-79 14 -5
Texas Rangers $131,657,214 10 67-95 28 -18
St. Louis Cardinals $112,768,000 11 90-72 5 NL Central 6
Atlanta Braves $112,658,731 12 79-83 16 -4
Arizona Diamondbacks $112,298,833 13 64-98 30 -17
Cincinnati Reds $111,694,938 14 76-86 21 -7
Baltimore Orioles $104,045,833 15 96-66 2 AL East 13
Milwaukee Brewers $103,397,967 16 82-80 15 1
New York Mets $96,554,970 17 79-83 16 1
Colorado Rockies $94,079,071 18 66-96 29 -11
Seattle Mariners $91,739,642 19 87-75 11 8
Kansas City Royals $90,837,000 20 89-73 7 AL WC 13
San Diego Padres $90,361,600 21 77-85 18 3
Chicago White Sox $89,792,166 22 73-89 22 0
Chicago Cubs $89,046,356 23 73-89 22 1
Minnesota Twins $85,465,000 24 70-92 26 -2
Cleveland Indians $84,809,134 25 85-77 12 13
Oakland Athletics $80,360,900 26 88-74 8 AL WC 18
Tampa Bay Rays $76,746,916 27 77-85 18 9
Pittsburgh Pirates $71,929,833 28 88-74 8 NL WC 20
Houston Astros $50,032,900 29 70-92 26 3
Miami Marlins $44,136,900 30 77-85 18 12

As you may have already surmised, the “delta” column to the right quickly shows which teams were badly over or under performing their payroll ranks.  Specifically:

  • Boston, Philadelphia, and Texas are three obvious teams that badly underperformed their payroll.  We’re all well aware of Philadelphia’s problems: too many long term contracts given out to guys in their 30s, locking that franchise into transactional inertia for the past few years.  Texas suffered from injury problems that were beyond ridiculous; they ended the season with 10 players on the 60-day D/L, used 15 different starters and no less than *40* pitchers on the year.  Fourty different pitchers!   Texas started the year with $130M payroll and finished with a worse record than their in-state rivals Houston, who have been *not* trying for years.
  • Arizona is a sneaky under performer, but also merits discussion.  Ownership finally has admitted that the brain trust that has been running players out of town for 50 cents on the dollar for years because of “character” or “make-up” issues has, well, not worked (see Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer most famously, but also see the moves that jettisoned Tyler Skaggs, Ian Kennedy and Brandon McCarthy in the same vein).  Gone are former GM Kevin Towers and the on-field managerial staff who has valued “grit” over “capabilities” for years, led by Kirk Gibson.  However, now running the show in Arizona is a newbie GM Dave Stewart whose accomplishments during his brief front-office experience in Toronto were not exactly well thought of by his former staff-member Keith Law.  Nonetheless; they’ll have the #1 overall pick in 2015 thanks to their ineptitude, and a chance to put some depth into a middling farm system.
  • The three teams who have already replaced their GMs this off season (Colorado, Atlanta, Arizona) all were on the under-performing list.  Colorado had the second worst record with a mid-sized payroll but has replaced its odd executive structure from within (which some pundits think will lead to more ineptitude).  Arizona’s odd choices are discussed above.  Atlanta’s GM switch is surprising to me (as i’ve mentioned before) and seems to be the result of an odd power-struggle going on within the Atlanta executive suite.  How do you fire a guy who constructed a team that has gone to the playoffs three out of the last five years on a budget immediately following a season when he lost 3/5ths of his starting rotation to injury before the season began?

How about on the “good” side?

  • Three of your four WC teams are among the smallest payrolls in the game.  Oakland, Pittsburgh and Kansas City rank 26th, 28th and 20th in 2014 payroll.  Also worth mentioning as overachievers are Cleveland (who missed out on the AL wild card by a game), Baltimore (who won 96 games with the 15th ranked payroll) and (of course) Miami (who sported the lowest payroll *by far* but still won 77 games).  Miami in particular seems like it is ready for another boom and sell-off cycle; they have a good team without the services of its best pitcher nearly all year; one or two more acquisitions and/or successful call-ups could have Miami competing for a divisional title again, and soon.
  • Washington Nationals: 8th highest payroll, 2nd best record.  That’s certainly good news.  Our opening day payroll of $133M may have been on the high side to some observers, but the team lived up to its reputation.
  • The Angels bashed their way to the best record in the league on just the 7th highest payroll, ironically, considering the over-spending they’ve been accused of in the past few years.  Don’t worry though; the Angels payroll will begin to have its own issues when Trout’s $30M/year contract years hit.  $30M a year.

What happens next year?

  • The Nats may be holding steady; LaRoche‘s $12M and Soriano‘s $14M salaries go away, but huge increases to Desmond and Zimmermann‘s salaries in 2015, stepped-up increases for Gonzalez and Span (who I’m assuming we’re going to exercise for 2015), and arbitration cases for a number of key and expensive players (Fister, Strasburg, Ramos, Clippard, Storen) will probably  more than make up for the $26M coming off the books.
  • The Phillies, to my constant amusement, already have $127M committed to just nine players for next year.  They’ll continue to be a top payroll, bottom performer for at least two more years.
  • The Yankees, who dipped underneath $200M for 2014 thanks to a gift-wrapped Bud Selig suspension for Alex Rodriguez and an equally generous $14M payoff from the cubs to take Alfonso Soriano off their hands, have $161M committed next year for just 10 players, with five of those players each earning north of $20M a year.  Wow.   Plus, they stand to lose their closer, two of their five SPs (Kuroda and McCarthy), and several position players to either FA or retirement.  They could be a train wreck again next year.

 

 

World Series Pitching Matchups & Predictions (that you should laugh at)

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In my Divisional series prediction post, I predicted the following:

  • Washington-San Francisco: predict a Washington 3-1 series win.  Actual: SF wins 3-1.
  • St. Louis-Los Angeles Dodgers: predicted a LA sweep or 3-1 series win.  Actual: StL wins 3-1.
  • Detroit-Baltimore: predicted a Detroit sweep or a 3-1 win.  Actual: Baltimore sweeps 3-0.
  • Kansas City-Los Angeles Angels: predicted a LA victory in 5.  Actual: Kansas City sweeps 3-0.

In my League Championship Series prediction post, I predicted the following:

  • San Francisco- St. Louis: predicted St. Louis in 7.  Actual: San Francisco walks off 4-1.
  • Baltimore-Kansas City: predicted Baltimore in 6: Actual, Kansas City sweeps 4-0.

So.  Six post season series down, and i’m 0-6 in predicting things.  Mostly off badly too.  What now?  Of course!  Predict the World Series!  Here’s the post-season schedule and the likely matchups:

  • Game 1: SF@KC Tue Oct 21: Madison Bumgarner v James Shields
  • Game 2: SF@KC Wed Oct 22: Jake Peavy v Yordano Ventura
  • Game 3: KC@SF Fri Oct 24: Jason Vargas v Tim Hudson
  • Game 4: KC@SF Sat Oct 25: Jeremy Guthrie v Ryan Vogelsong
  • Game 5: KC@SF Sun Oct 26: Shields-Bumgarner (if necessary)
  • Game 6: SF@KC Tue Oct 28: Peavy-Ventura (if necessary)
  • Game 7: SF@KC Wed Oct 29: Hudson-Vargas (if necessary)

How do things look?

Bumgarner has now thrown 31 post season innings so far in 2014.  He’s given up 19 hits, 5 walks, and just 5 earned runs in that time (3 last night, 2 more against the Nats).  Shields, despite his moniker of “big game,”  has not been solid this post season, giving up 10 runs in 16 innings.  Ventura has one good outing and one mediocre outing.  Peavy has been on a very short leash (thanks to the presence of two reliable long-men in the Giant’s pen in Yusmeiro Petit and Tim Lincecum) but has given decent performances.  Advantage Giants in pitching in the first two games; I’ll go with a 1-1 split in KC.

Back in SF, Hudson and Vogelsong both were dominant against the Nats, but not so much against the Cards.  I have a feeling the Royals are going to hit them.  I’ll predict that the Giants take 2 of 3 in SF, sending the Royals back to KC down 3-2.  From there, Its hard to argue against the run the Royals are on, and they’ll have home field plus be done with Bumgarner.  Royals ride their wave of good fortune in beating “better” teams and take the series.  Prediction: Royals in 7.

Just a note: are you troubled  by the fact that both wild cards are in the world series?  Or that the teams with the best records (Nats and Angels) were both (rather easily) defeated in the divisional series?

Keep Asdrubal Cabrera?

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Who would you rather have? Photo AP via mlb.com

Who would you rather have? Photo AP via mlb.com

One thing that continually pops up in baseball analysis conversations is “the narrative.”  Today’s narrative to address: Asdrubal Cabrera is the solution for the Nat’s 2015 second base “problem.”

Here’s the 2014 stat lines for both Cabrera and Danny Espinosa:

Player Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Cabrera 2014 28 WSN NL 49 200 175 20 40 9 2 5 3 22 29 0.229 0.312 0.389 0.7 92
Espinosa 2014 27 WSN NL 114 364 333 31 73 14 3 8 8 18 122 0.219 0.283 0.351 0.634 74

Espinosa’s prolific strike-out rate drives down his OPS+ figure.  Otherwise, he’s basically a small step down from Cabrera’s performance on the season.  But we’re not exactly talking about world-changing offense from Cabrera at the plate: a .229 BA with a bit of power.

Here’s some more quickie stats that will illuminate things.  Lets talk about their defense.  If we’re saying that Cabrera was a superior defender, here’s the 2B-only defensive stats for both players (UZR/150 and total Zone via fangraphs, DRS via either site, FRAA via baseballprospectus.com):

Player UZR/150 at 2B DRS at 2B FRAA at 2B
Cabrera -5.3 -10 -2.2
Espinosa 4 -1 0.1

So, across the board Espinosa statistically was a better defender than Cabrera.  You can make the argument that Cabrera was playing out of position; I can make the argument that Espinosa’s full-season stats have been even better than this (he is an elite defender year over year).

Lastly; contract status:

Player 2014 Salary 2015 contract status
Cabrera $10M Free Agent, 10-12M/yr projected
Espinosa $540k 1st year of Arb, $1.5M projected

I dunno. If someone said that the team should go out of its way to ensure they have a switch-hitting, slick fielding second baseman who can hit .220 … I’d say to you, “we already have him.”  And he’s pretty cheap.   And under team control for 3 more years, for a combined salary that’ll be less than one year Cabrera will fetch on the open market.

In reality, with a weak SS free agent market, Cabrera is going to get over-paid by someone to go back to short, despite his saying publicly that he likes Washington and wants to stay, so maybe this is all moot.  I’m not necessarily saying that Espinosa is the solution at 2B either: I think the team has found its Jamie Carroll for the next 3 years; a guy who can play either middle-infield position off the bench who switch hits.  I’ve seen rumors that the Nats will go shopping on the FA market: of course, the available player list isn’t exactly inspiring.  I’ve seen other rumors that the Nats will work the trade market; that’s impossible to project or guess, but Texas’ glut of middle infielders does present an opportunity (they have Elvis Andrus ensconsed at short, Rougned Odor at second, but have uber-prospect Jurickson Profar ready to play as soon as he’s healthy).  Oh, they also have a huge corner infield problem coming too, with Adrian Beltre and Prince Fielder under contract for years to come but minor-league homer leading 3B Joey Gallo not really needing to prove much at AA any longer.  I like the trade matchup (NL East to AL West) but can the GMs come to an agreement on something?

Or maybe just maybe Espinosa gets talked into giving up hitting lefty (career slash line: .271/.343/.460 for a career .804 OPS figure, which by way of comparison is slightly better than the OPS figure that MVP candidate Josh Donaldson put up in 2014.

Yeah, I’d take that out of my #8 hitter, while putting up good defense at 2nd and proving injury-coverage at short.

And the winner of the #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft is…

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings

Your Arizona Diamondbacks!   Here’s next year’s top 10 (click on the above link for the full first round; the Nats will pick 30th out of 31 picks next year if we keep the pick).

(Another more complete post on this topic from MinorLeagueBall, including all the comp picks, bonus allocations and whatnot.)

2015 pick #
Team 2014 W 2014 L 2014 W/L Pct
1 Arizona Diamondbacks  64 98 0.395
2 Houston Astros
3 Colorado Rockies  66 96 0.407
4 Texas Rangers  67 95 0.414
5 Houston Astros  70 92 0.432
6 Minnesota Twins  70 92 0.432
7 Boston Red Sox  71 91 0.438
8 Chicago White Sox  73 89 0.451
9 Chicago Cubs  73 89 0.451
10 Philadelphia Phillies  73 89 0.451

Houston retains the #2 overall pick after failing to sign last year’s #1 Brady Aiken.  Teams that tied in records are given priority based on last year’s W/L record, meaning that Houston picks before Minnesota, the White Sox before the Cubs and Phillies, etc.   Houston, for their prolonged incompetence, gets the 2nd and 5th pick next year, and I’m sure they’ll figure out a way to out-smart themselves and screw it up again.  And that’s if they even keep the picks: 5th rounder Jacob Nix had his deal axed when Aiken’s deal went south, thanks to the ridiculous new signing bonus rules.  Nix has filed a grievance and if the Astros are forced to honor his deal, they’ll lose one or both of these picks (and maybe more).

The Diamondbacks with their fresh and completely inexperienced General Manager Dave Stewart now have the honor of selecting one from quite a few interesting candidates for #1 overall right now.  Aiken presumably will pitch a year at JuCo and be a completely legitimate shot to go 1-1 again (assuming he doesn’t get hurt).  But he’ll also be looking for significant money.  Duke’s Michael Matuella (who is a local kid, hailing from Great Falls and who attended Georgetown Prep) has been shooting up boards.  A couple of other prep players are considered upper first round talent (Brendan Rodgers in Florida, Mike Nikorak in Pennsylvania, Kolby Allard in California).  And, with a rising class of college juniors we have more than a few big-time college guys who may push Aiken down off the top spot.  Namely, Walker Buehler from Vanderbilt, Phil Bickford (late of Cal State Fullerton) or maybe even the likes of Kyle Funkhouser (Louisville) or Carson Fuller (Vanderbilt).  In fact, Vanderbilt may be like UCLA was a few years back, with two starters selected in the top of the first round.  And like always, some one may come out of nowhere to claim the 1-1 spot with an under-slot deal, much like the Astros did in 2012.

The top 10 for next year is rounded out by four of the wealthiest clubs in the game (Boston, both Chicago teams and Philadelphia).  Which also means that along with Texas, half the teams who finished in the bottom 10 this year were among the highest spenders in terms of payroll in 2014.  You can’t fault Texas necessarily, but you can certainly continue to mock Philadelphia.  How does Frank Wren get fired but Ruben Amaro keeps his job?

Shields-Myers trade revisited; not such a bad deal now, eh?

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While reading David Schoenfield‘s 10/1/14 chat, someone asked the following question:

How does the Myers/Shields trade look a year later?

A great question.  For those who don’t remember the entirety of the deal, on 12/9/12 this trade occurred:

  • The Rays got Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard
  • The Royals got James Shields and Wade Davis

Prospect-followers (like me) howled about the trade at the time.  Wil Myers was the consensus “best prospect in the game” at the time while Shields wasn’t exactly considered to be an “Ace” in the league.  Royal’s GM Dayton Moore was accused of playing short-term gains versus the long term health of his franchise because of perceived pressure to return to the playoffs for the first time in nearly 3 decades.  Myers subsequently turned around and won the AL Rookie of the Year in 2013 while the Royals improved but still fell short of the playoffs.  I freely admit it: I hated the deal and thought it was another example of the Rays fleecing another team in a trade.  I wonder now if it is because I undervalued what Shields brings to the table.  I wonder if we all do: compare what Tampa got for Shields versus what they got for David Price; if the Myers deal had been for Price instead of Shields, I wonder if anyone would have howled a bit, since Price was a “name” player with awards while Shields was and is a relatively “anonymous” player in what he accomplishes on a day to day basis.

Two seasons onward, with the Royals having broken through to the playoffs, lets take a look at the players involved.

  • Shields: Just finished his second 225+ inning season leading the Royals staff, putting up bWAR figures of 4.1 and 3.3.  Shields also made the start (thought he didn’t really factor in the decision) that put the Royals into the ALDS for the first time since 1985.  He went 6ip/2ER to earn the win in the ALDS series clincher over the Angels, and is scheduled to start the ALCS opener tonight.
  • Davis: failed as a starter in 2013, but became one of the best setup men in the game in 2014.  Numbers: 71 innings, a 1.00 ERA, a sub 1.00 whip and a 3.7 bWAR.  That’s a pretty big WAR figure for a reliever.

2014 bWAR for the Royals’ side of the trade: 7.0 between them.

How about on the Rays’ side?

  • Myers had a 2014 slash line of just .222/.294/.320 in 87 games and missed half the year with a broken wrist.  bWAR of -0.9.
  • Odorizzi made 31 starts as a back-end rotation member; 11-13 with a 4.13 ERA and a 90 ERA+.  bWAR=1.2
  • Montgomery just finished his second full year in the AAA rotation, going 10-5 with a 4.29 ERA in Durham.  He has yet to appear in the majors.  He’s also just finished his 7th minor league season, which means he’ll be a MLFA if he’s DFA’d by the club (he’s on the 40-man roster; I’m not sure how many options he has left).
  • Leonard had a .808 OPS+ as a 21 year old in high A.  He’s likely 2 more years away from a MLB debut.

2014 bWAR for Rays side of the trade: 0.3.

Devil’s advocate statement: It is just one season.  Shields is a FA once the playoffs are over while the Rays control all four guys for years to come.   But “flags fly forever” and the Royals did finally achieve their goal of making the playoffs.  And they continue in the playoffs while Tampa continues to play golf.

Two years onward, would you still make this trade?  Would you sacrifice the long term promise of Myers and Odorizzi for the short term glory of a playoff run?

 

 

 

Written by Todd Boss

October 10th, 2014 at 11:11 am

Champion Series Pitching Matchups & Predictions (that you should ignore)

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So, in the Divisional series prediction post, I predicted the following:

  • Washington-San Francisco: predict a Washington 3-1 series win.  Actual: SF wins 3-1.
  • St. Louis-Los Angeles Dodgers: predicted a LA sweep or 3-1 series win.  Actual: StL wins 3-1.
  • Detroit-Baltimore: predicted a Detroit sweep or a 3-1 win.  Actual: Baltimore sweeps 3-0.
  • Kansas City-Los Angeles Angels: predicted a LA victory in 5.  Actual: Kansas City sweeps 3-0.

Had I published in time, I likely would have gotten at least one of the WC games wrong too (I liked Bumgarner but thought Francisco Liriano could revert to his dominant 2013 post season form).

Four predictions, four incorrect, mostly wildly so.  Damn.  So much for the “pitching wins in the postseason” narrative.

Now what?   Of course!  Post another prediction piece :-)

In the NL; the two top teams lost in the divisional series, leaving the weakest divisional champ going against the wild card, both with two off-days to re-set their rotations.  In the AL; two surprising sweeps and a huge gap between games lets both teams re-set their rotations too.  I’m guessing at the rotation order, but it should go as follows:

NL:

  • Game 1: SF@Stl: Jake Peavy vs Adam Wainwright
  • Game 2: SF@Stl: Madison Bumgarner vs Lance Lynn
  • Game 3: Stl@SF: John Lackey vs Tim Hudson
  • Game 4: Stl@SF: Shelby Miller vs Ryan Vogelsong
  • Game 5: Stl@SF: Wainwright-Peavy (if necessary)
  • Game 6: SF@Stl: Bumgarner-Lynn (if necessary)
  • Game 7: SF@Stl: Lackey-Hudson (if necessary)

SF barely hit against Washington’s starters but still squeaked out 3 games from 4.  St. Louis on the other hand hits the ball a ton and should pound SF’s lesser starters.  I like a split in Stl thanks to Bumgarner, then Stl taking two of three in ATT, and SF liking their chances throwing their ace in game 6.  But who the heck knows what is going to happen; Wainwright gave up 11 hits in his last outing.   St. Louis in 7.

AL:

  • Game 1: KC@Balt: James Shields vs Chris Tillman
  • Game 2: KC@Balt: Yordano Ventura vs Wei-Yi Chen
  • Game 3: Balt@KC: Bud Norris vs Jason Vargas
  • Game 4: Balt@KC: Miguel Gonzalez vs Jeremy Guthrie (or perhaps Danny Duffy)
  • Game 5: Balt@KC: Shields-Tillman (if necessary)
  • Game 6: KC@Balt: Ventura-Chen (if necessary)
  • Game 7: KC@Balt: Vargas-Norris (if necessary)

I, and every other national pundit, continue to be underwhelmed by Baltimore’s pitching staff.  But they get the job done: Norris was un-hittable against Detroit, and Tillman pitched good enough to win.  Is KC on a mission to save Dayton Moore’s job?  It sure seems so.  They couldn’t surpass Detroit in the regular season but swept the best team in baseball in the ALDS.  But meanwhile, Baltimore *hits* the ball.  I think Baltimore could win both games at home to start and then two of three in KC.

Prediction: Baltimore in 6.