The July 17th signing deadline has come and gone, and the Nats had a relatively quiet signing period. Little drama, no significant failed signings, no arguing in the press with Scott Boras, etc. Lets recap our 2015 draft class.
As noted by Chelsea James in this NatsJournal piece, the Nats signed 30 of their 40 picks, including all their top ten and 18 of the top 20 picks.
They saved roughly $700k of their top10-round bonus pool, only having to go over slot for one top-10 round pick (Koda Glover, who perhaps not coincidentally was the first 2015 draftee to be promoted to full season ball), and transferred that bonus savings to two big over-draft picks in later rounds (13th rounder Max Schrock and 34th rounder Tyler Watson). This essentially meant that they were able to acquire the equivalent of an extra 3rd and an extra 4th rounder thanks to bonus savings.
Here’s a cut-n-paste from my 2015 draft tracker spreadsheet (google link here, which includes more details and twitter accounts for the draftees). Red == did not sign. *==lefty, #=switch hitter.
|2||Stevenson, Andrew* OF||COL jr||LSU||signed for $750k, $308k under slot|
|2||Perkins, Blake OF||HS||Verrado HS (AZ)||signed for $800k, $93k underslot.|
|3||Wiseman, Rhett* OF||COL jr||Vanderbilt||signed for $554k, exactly slot.|
|4||Rivera, Mariano Jr. RHP||COL sr||Iona (NY)||signed for $410k, exactly slot.|
|5||Hearn, Taylor LHP||COL jr||Oklahoma Baptist U.||signed for $275k, 37k under slot|
|6||Crownover, Matt LHP||COL jr||Clemson||signed for $160k, 70k under slot.|
|7||Borne, Grant LHP||COL jr||Nicholls State (LA)||signed for $150k, 27k under slot.|
|8||Glover, Koda RHP||COL sr||Oklahoma State||signed for $200k, 34k over slot.|
|9||Kerian, David# 1B||COL sr||Illinois||signed for $25k, 130k under slot (and, was in the Auburn opening day lineup)|
|10||Guilbeau, Taylor LHP||COL sr||Alabama||signed for $25k, 124k under slot|
|11||Lee, Andrew RHP||COL jr||Tennessee||Yes per his twitter|
|12||Peterson, Tommy RHP||COL jr||South Florida||Yes per his twitter, GCL roster assignment|
|13||Schrock, Max* 2B||COL jr||South Carolina||signed for $500k, $400k over slot|
|14||Lemieux, Mack LHP||HS||Jupiter Community HS (FL)||Not likely to sign|
|15||Mooney, Kevin RHP||COL jr||Maryland||yes per Baltimore sun http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bs-sp-digest-0623-20150623-story.html|
|16||Sagdal, Ian* SS||COL sr||Washington State U.||Yes per his twitter|
|17||Dulin, Dalton# 2B||CC||Northwest Mississippi CC||yes per http://www.commercialappeal.com/sports/high-school/dalton-dulin-signs-with-washington-nationals_88617898|
|18||Rodriguez, Melvin* 2B||COL sr||Jackson State U. (MS)||Yes per Auburn assignment|
|19||Brandt, Clayton SS||COL sr||MidAmerica Nazarene U (KS)||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|20||Reeves, John C||COL sr||Rice (TX)||Why didn’t he sign?|
|21||Pirro, Matt RHP||COL sr||Wake Forest||Yes per his twitter|
|22||Boghosian, Adam RHP||COL 5s||North Greenville U. (SC)||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|23||Rash, Alec RHP||COL jr||Missouri||Not likely to sign|
|24||Smith, Blake RHP||COL sr||West Virginia||Why didn’t he sign?|
|25||Copping, Calvin RHP||COL jr||Cal. State Northridge||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|26||Harmening, Russell RHP||COL jr||Westmont Coll (CA)||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|27||Brinley, Ryan RHP||COL jr||Sam Houston State U. (TX)||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|28||Van Vossen, Mick RHP||COL sr||Michigan State U.||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|29||Diedrick, Philip* OF||COL sr||Western Kentucky U.||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|30||Pantoja, Jorge RHP||COL jr||Alabama State U.||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|31||Sprengel, Nick LHP||HS||El Dorado HS (CA)||Not likely to sign|
|32||DiNatale, Dalton* 3B||COL jr||Arizona State U.||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|33||La Bruna, Angelo SS||COL 5S||U. Southern California||signed per GCL roster assignment|
|34||Watson, Tyler LHP||HS||Perry HS (AZ)||signed per Jim Callis Tweet|
|35||Montes, Coco SS||HS||Coral Gables HS (FL)||Not likely to sign|
|36||Bush, Taylor SS||HS||The Linfield School (CA)||Not likely to sign|
|37||DiPuglia, Steven SS||HS||Cooper City HS (FL)||Not likely to sign|
|38||Morales, Matt SS||HS||Wellington Community HS (FL)||Not likely to sign|
|39||Jefferies, Jake# 2B||COL jr||Cal. State Fullerton||Yes per Auburn assignment|
|40||Quinn, Parker 1B||HS||The Benjamin School (FL)||Not likely to sign|
Review of the 10 who did not sign:
- 14th rounder Lemieux was a tough sign, committed to Florida Atlantic, probably couldn’t get enough money to make it worth his while to forgo college.
- 20th rounder Reeves has college eligibility left despite being a senior; I originally had assumed he was signing. Looks like he returns to Rice and is a 5th year senior.
- 23rd rounder Rash barely pitched this year and from what I read has really struggled in his college career. He made sense to go back for his senior year to build value. Coming out of HS he was a decent talent.
- 24th rounder Smith was listed in some places as a senior but is listed as a junior on WVU’s website. It makes sense for him to return for his senior year and build value.
- 31st rounder Sprengel is committed to U. San Diego.
- High Schoolers picked in rounds 35-38 (Montes, Bush, DiPuglia and Morales) are committed to respectively South Florida, Westmont, Western Kentucky and Stetson, all opting to go to school.
- 40th rounder Quinn is commited to Hofstra.
The big signing surprises for me:
- Schrock in the 13th round, though he got paid like an early 3rd rounder. So perhaps it isn’t that big of a surprise.
- Watson in the 34th round, though again he got paid like a mid 4th rounder, so maybe it isn’t that big of a surprise either.
- DiNatale and Jefferies both signing despite being such low picks; both were college juniors at big programs who could have gone back to school. Somewhat surprising picks. Given that any bonus figure below $100,000 in the 11th round or later does not need to be reported, it is possible that both guys got $100k (which is about equivalent to a 10th round pick) and opted to sign.
- That the team signed *any* of the guys it picked in rounds 31 and above; they got 4 of the 10.
Was this a “good” or a “bad” draft?
I was on record quite clearly that I thought our 2014 draft was a failure. This led to my posting a huge missive doing analysis on *every* draft class and determining whether it was a failure or a success. I’m still not sold on 2014 a year onwards; Fedde is going to have to turn into an all-star to make up for the rest of the deficiencies of the class.
So how does the 2015 draft class look? Unfortunately, in my mind, probably not too great either. We had no 1st rounder. Our two second rounders both project as good field/no hit center fielders (thought to be fair, Stevenson is hitting .360 in Auburn). I like Wiseman but he has holes in his swing. Rivera has gotten shelled so far in Auburn. I think the team got some good deals on Glover, Schrock, and Watson. Some of the college arms are really looking good at Auburn (Bourne, Peterson, Gilbeau). So we’ll see.
Good links for the draft: that i’m constantly using.
- First 10 rounds of bonus figures from MLB.com
- MLB Draft Tracker
- Nats Draft Tracker xls, maintained by “springfield Fan” for years
- PerfectGame.org; the best place to look up prep kids.