Hopefully his MVP vote goes better for Harper than this day did. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Everyone does an “Awards Prediction piece.” This post for me is kind of a running diary throughout the season, with the final predictions written at season’s end but then not published until after the WS ends/Awards season starts.
A few awards have already been given out, ones that I don’t necessarily try to predict anymore:
- Fielding Bible Awards: not an official award but certainly a better way of evaluating defenders than the Gold Gloves (though, to be fair, they’re getting much much better at identifying the true best defenders year in, year out). No Nats awarded.
- Gold Glove Finalists: announced with 3 finalists for each award; Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos named as finalists but neither will win.
- Hank Aaron awards for “Most Outstanding Offensive Player” in each league: Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson, who not surprisingly is who I chose for my MVP predictions. I kinda wish this was a more prevalent award than the constant arguing we have about MVP.
- Relievers of the Year: formerly known as the “Fireman’s reliever awards” and now named for legendary relievers Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman: won this year by Andrew Miller of the Yankees, Mark Melancon of the Pirates.
- Sporting News Executive of the Year: Toronto’s Alex Anthopoulis, who announced he was stepping down the same day he got the award.
- A whole slew of other Sporting News annual awards: google “sporting news baseball awards 2015” and you can see players of the year, pitcher of the year, post-season all-star teams, manager of the year, etc.
I put all these dates and links plus a whole lot more into my “off-season” calendar, which will publish soon now that the season is officially over.
(random self promotion related to the Sporting News: they recently published one of my quora.com “answers” titled “Are there Any cities that should have an MLB team,” an answer that I wrote referencing back to this blog for previously published/researched information).
My Final Predictions:
- NL MVP: Bryce Harper
- NL Cy Young: Jake Arrieta
- NL Rookie: Kris Bryant
- NL Manager: Terry Collins
- NL Comeback: Matt Harvey
- AL MVP: Josh Donaldson
- AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel
- AL Rookie: Carlos Correa
- AL Manager: Jeff Bannister
- AL Comeback: Prince Fielder
These are not always who I think *deserve* the awards necessarily, just how I think the voters will vote. There are some really close races. Here’s my thoughts:
- NL MVP: Bryce Harper wins for three main reasons: 1) his season is one of the best of the last 50 years. 2) there’s no obvious candidate on any of the division winning teams (no sorry, Yoenis Cespedes doesn’t count) and 3) Even though the Nats didn’t win the division, they were in the race nearly the entire season. No excuses here. You might see some non-Harper votes b/c some middle aged fat slob of a homer writer has some misrepresented axe to grind but he should win easily.
- NL Cy Young: Jake Arrieta: I can’t believe I’ve selected Arrieta over Greinke, but Arrieta’s 2nd half will, again, “win the narrative.” Kershaw has been unbelievable too (and my fantasy team in the championship is proof), so really you can’t go wrong with these guys in any order. I think it goes Arrietta, Greinke, Kershaw. Side note; so, is the Baltimore pitching coaching staff the most incompetent in the league or what? How does Arrieta go from being a 6ERA starter in Baltimore to a guy who is posting a sub 2.00 ERA in one of the best hitter’s parks in the league?
- NL Rookie: Kris Bryant: for a while I thought this was Joc Pederson‘s to lose … but Bryant kept hitting and Pederson sat. Wow are the Astros kicking themselves for drafting Mark Appel over Bryant or what??
- NL Manager: Terry Collins: There’s no team in the NL in a more surprising position than the Mets, so Collins wins the award that our own Matt Williams so richly “earned” last year. I wouldn’t be surprised though to see Joe Maddon get this given how great the Cubs were.
- NL Comeback Player of the year has to be Matt Harvey; there’s nobody else really close in the NL.
- AL MVP: Josh Donaldson: There’s just no reason Mike Trout shouldn’t win this award … except that voters are a fickle bunch and fall for the story. Donaldson is a good story, playing on a good story of a team in Toronto. He wins.
- AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel: He was the best in the first half, the ASG starter, and no there’s no reason not to think he finishes off the season. In fantasy he was like a 15th round pick and he’s a top-10 producer. Amazing.
- AL Rookie: Carlos Correa: If you want to argue that Francisco Lindor deserves this, I wouldn’t disagree. I’m guessing Correa has the name power with the voters though and wins out. Lindor has a much better average and is a superior defender, but Correa has 20+ homers, a benchmark number that will get him the votes.
- AL Manager: Jeff Bannister: Even though Toronto is a surprise team, getting the talent handed to you like that is not the mark of a champion manager. What is going on in Texas is nothing short of amazing. At the beginning of the season the had an *entire rotation* on the D/L: Darvish, Harrison, Perez, Scheppers and Holland. Scheppers may not have stayed there very long, but they looked like a 90-loss team, not a divisional winner over the likes of LA and Houston.
- AL Comeback player of the year goes to Prince Fielder for returning strongly from his neck injury. If Alex Rodriguez had missed a year due to injury instead of litigation, he would likely be the winner. By the way; how good was Alex Rodriguez doing color work for Fox Sports at the World Series? He was damn impressive to me, great analysis, well spoken, well-dressed of course … and could not have provided more contrast to Pete Rose if they had found those two guys out of central casting.
So, how did the major awards evolve over the course of the season? By my sense, the awards kind of went like this from April to September:
- NL MVP: Stanton to Harper, maybe Goldschmidt, no definitely Harper, narrative Cespedes but has to be Harper. Nobody else makes sense to take it away from him on narrative.
- NL Cy Young: Scherzer early, definitely Scherzer, maybe Cole, suddenly Greinke in the lead, Kershaw coming on fast late but Arrieta’s 2nd halve clinches it.
- NL Rookie: Bryant and Pederson early, Pederson stretching a lead … but then Pederson gets benched while Bryant continues to play. Some talk about Duffy, but still Bryant. Too many homers.
- AL MVP: Trout to Cabrera, back to Trout, then Donaldson takes over despite Trout’s phenomenal season.
- AL Cy Young: Hernandez early, Keuchel strong mid season, Grey fading, Sale making a name but still Keuchel despite Price’s excellent season.
- AL Rookie: Travis/Souza early, Burns making a name, but Correa is the leader most of the season, Lindor making noise late, Correa holds on.
As with last year’s version of this post, instead of printing links to writers early and mid-season predictions, I’ll just throw those links into the monthly reviews for context. This post is more like a season-long diary of the evolution of these awards; the sections were written in each month as the season progressed.
BaseballMusings maintains a Cy Young tracker stat, which is useful to identify candidates but not really a predictor.
April:
Here’s some early candidates out to fast starts.
Opinions this month: Symborski‘s ZIPS predictors after one month.
- MVP candidates: Trout/Cabrera again in the AL. Adrian Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt in the NL.
- Cy Young candidates: Felix Hernandez in the AL, Kershaw and Scherzer in the NL.
- Rookie of the year candidates: Devon Travis and Steven Souza in the AL, Kris Bryant and Joc Pederson in the NL.
May:
Harper NL Player of the month, after getting 2 straight player of the week awards. Scherzer wins NL Pitcher of the month.
- MVP candidates: Trout stretching lead in AL, Jason Kipnis and Nelson Cruz also high in bWAR. Bryce Harper has stretched a massive WAR lead in the NL, Goldschmidt #2. Anthony Rizzo entering the discussion.
- Cy Young candidates: Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray in the AL, Max Scherzer really standing alone in the NL; closest WAR pitcher in the NL is Aaron Harang and he isn’t likely to keep the pace.
- Rookie of the year candidates: Still Travis and Souza in the AL, Kris Bryant and Joc Pederson in the NL are both explosive players and will be hard to catch.
All Star Break
- MVP candidates: Probably still Trout and Harper. Goldschmidt is nearly as good but Harper has the narrative.
- Cy Young candidates: Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke were the All Star starters and may be the leading candidates. Scherzer needs to get some run support; he’s barely above .500.
- Rookie of the year candidates: Former Nat Billy Burns is in the bWAR lead, but Carlos Correa likely gets the nod. In the NL, Bryant/Pederson have a commanding lead but Matt Duffy starting to put his name out there, and if the Cubs would just let Kyle Schwarber stay in the majors he might hit his way to the title.
Mid August
- MVP candidates: Trout has competition in the form of Josh Donaldson in the AL. Nobody’s close to Harper in the NL, still.
- Cy Young candidates: In the NL, Scherzer’s star has faded while LA’s two aces have each had a significant scoreless innings streak and could finish 1-2. Also in the NL; deserving candidates Jacob deGrom, Jake Arrietta and Gerrit Cole. In the AL, it still looks like a dogfight between Gray and Keuchel. But David Price is coming on strong post-trade and Chris Archer should get some top-5 votes.
- Rookie of the year candidates: Its the year of the rookie; never before have we seen so many high-impact rookies in the league at once. The AL seems set for Carlos Correa, with guys like Roberto Osuna, Andrew Heaney and Lance McCullers chasing him. The NL has a number of candidates. Bryant and Pederson have gotten the ink, but guys like Matt Duffy, Jung Ho Kang, Noah Snydergaard and Randal Grichuk are also worthy players. Taylor Jungmann, Kyle Schwarber and even Joe Ross are also rans in the race thanks to later callups. Bryant may win thanks to name recognition, but in other years any of these guys would have been candidates.
- Managers of the Year: we’re 100 games into the season, early enough to see some trends in the “Award-given-to-the-manager for his team unexpectedly overachieving the most in 2015” award. In the AL, clearly Houston is the surprise team and in the NL the Mets are the surprise team, so we’ll go with A.J. Hinch and Terry Collins.
- Comeback Players of the Year: Early candidates include Brett Anderson, Jeff Francoeur, Danny Espinosa and perhaps Matt Harvey. In the AL, I think it has to be Alex Rodriguez or perhaps Prince Fielder. Perhaps Chris Davis comes into the mix too.
September
- MVP candidates: In the AL: Donaldson has overtaken Trout thanks to a huge end-of-season push and Trout’s injury. In the NL, the Nats downturn may have opened up the door for both Anthony Rizzo and Andrew McCutchen. That is if we listen to “narrative” about how teams need to be playing meaningful games. Of course that being said, the Nats are playing very meaningful games; they’re trying to chase down a divisional leader so maybe the narrative still works for Harper. But not after a home sweep, when NY beat writers start beating the drum for Cespedes .. .which would be ridiculous since he only played a couple of months in the NL.
- Cy Young candidates: In the AL, it probably comes down to Keuchel and Sale, with Price in the mix too thanks to his sterling season for Toronto post-trade. In the NL: Arrietta has had the greatest 2nd half in baseball history; can he overtake Greinke?
- Rookie of the year candidates: In the AL: Francisco Lindor making some noise but its still Correa. In the NL, Pederson has gotten benched so it looks like Bryant is the leader, despite Duffy’s better season by WAR.
- Managers of the Year: at this point the “surprise” teams are the Mets and suddenly the Rangers. I’ll go with their managers Collins and Bannister. Some in the NL think Maddon and the Cubs are really the surprise team and they’re kind of right … but I maintain the Mets are even more so.
- Comeback Players of the Year: I’ll go with Harvey in the NL, Fielder in the AL; nobody’s giving A-Rod an award.
Well, Harper had one of the best seasons in the last 50 years without juice or Coors (Field). I’ve been putting it as the second-best post-PED-era season by OPS, behind only one of Pujols’ epic years, ahead of Miggy’s triple crown and anything Trout has posted. For point of reference, Trout led the AL in OPS this season, posting his best figure ever, and Harper was 118 points ahead of him. Wow. Harper was 239 points ahead of Cespedes, if anyone tries to include him in the conversation. He shouldn’t be. The runners up should be your trio of Cy contenders.
There’s just no defensible way for Harper not to be the MVP. But if they screw him out of it, it will just make him mad and more determined, so we’ll win either way.
I’ve got Trout over Donaldson, but I think you may be right about who wins.
KW
5 Nov 15 at 5:25 am
Unlike in past years, I’m not entirely confident in my reading of the tea leaves this year. I’m not sure i’ve got the Mgr of the years right, nor the NL cy Young, nor even the AL Rookie.
I sat with a guy for lunch who inexplicably tried to give me the whole tired cliche about how Harper shouldn’t win the MVP because his team didn’t make the play offs. and I shut him up with one simple question: “Oh, i didn’t realize the MVP was a team award; why should Harper be penalized because he couldn’t drag his other 24 teammates into the playoffs?” And he had no response. One more fool converted.
Todd Boss
5 Nov 15 at 9:25 am
I think they are all pretty close this year, with Harper being the clearest winner, but not a slam dunk. But I don’t get too invested in these awards.
Davey Lopes is back. I like the direction this coaching staff is headed. The team needs personality and a coaching staff is one way to provide it. I now have hopes for a good bench coach like Roberts , Wotus or Martinez to take over when Dusty is gone. The Maddux hiring was really smart. I don’t think he adds much to the vets, but I am also interested to see how Maddux works with bullpen guys like Treinen, Rivero, Solis and Barrett as well as the young starters that will join the rotation in the next few years. I don’t think hitting coaches add much value but pitching coaches can, and it would be great to see him help them go from good stuff to good performance.
Also some suggestion that Pap and Storen will stay. Many of you will assume it’s nothing but PR to build their trade value, but I think it may be legit and also something that makes sense. They need a lot of bullpen help and if they can get personalities to get along acceptably, talent is king.
Wally
5 Nov 15 at 10:37 am
We all read the stories about how Bryce called Papelbon and “made up.” Uh, why is Harper the one doing the reaching out? Is it because he’s the “young guy” and Papelbon is the “vet?” Is it entirely about service time? Maybe so.
Call me when Bryce Harper is a) old enough in years, b) experienced enough in service time and c) accomplished enough in terms of baseball achievements to stop this BS and just let him be a player without a narrative. Someone even wrote yesterday about how Dusty Baker can “teach Bryce how to be a man.” Uh dude; he’s gonna be 23, he’s going on 4 years playing professional baseball, doing the same travel and the same routines as every other “man” in that clubhouse, and oh by the way he might just win the MVP unanimously.
Todd Boss
5 Nov 15 at 11:25 am
I don’t think Bryce will win the MVP unanimously, for the reasons you’ve just mentioned: there are some strange misperceptions out there about him. Really, there are no other first-place-vote candidates. Arenado and Goldschmitt were on even worse teams. They’re the only ones close in “traditional stats.” Still, Bryce led the league in runs, tied in HRs, and lost the batting title on the last day. He had the “traditional stats.” We’ll see. Like Wally, I generally don’t care that much about the awards, but we’ve got a dog in the fight this year.
Love what I’m reading about Maddux. I like that he was hired independent of Baker and has the playoff and WS coaching experience to be a strong voice in the pitching decisions. Wally, I do think he can help the established starters. As much as I liked McCatty, I got the feeling that many of the guys had heard everything he had to say, and that he had nothing new to suggest when they were going bad. I also hope the Nats can work the same deal that the Rangers had to bring his little bro on board as an advisor. There may have never been a greater thinker on the mound about what he was doing there than Greg Maddux.
I also like the Lopes hire, one of the smartest baserunners ever. Lord knows this team needs a more intelligence on the base paths. It will be interesting to see if they get a hitting coach who is more from the “be selective” school than Dusty is said to be.
KW
5 Nov 15 at 12:39 pm
No argument that most of that stuff is crap. My point was that if the Nats can get them all to co-exist and play together, it enhances the team’s opportunities. I don’t care if Harper initiates it, Pap or Boras. I’d like to see whether it’s possible, since it’s better to only have to add two arms v. 4.
Wally
5 Nov 15 at 12:40 pm
KW – it just seems like Max and Gio are who they are now, and have a lot of money vested in it. That’s hard to change. But the young guns are still trying to make it, and may be much more open to instructions. But who knows, really.
Wally
5 Nov 15 at 12:44 pm
Max seems to chat up everyone. He’ll learn from Mark and be dying to pick Greg’s brain. Gio is actually one I had in mind as potentially benefiting from new advice. McCatty worked wonders with him initially, but Gio has seemed more frustrated over the last couple of years.
Considering how much the Natosphere was pining for Brad Miller for years, I had to chuckle that he’s finally been traded . . . for Nate Karns. I guess the legacy of the Karns trade for the Nats now rides mostly on Rivero.
Now it’s time for QO day and on to free agency. In the Fangraphs contract crowdsourcing, Desi only came out with 4/$60M. He may get a bit more than that, but the consensus seems to be that he’ll get a lot less than he (reportedly) turned down from the Nats.
KW
5 Nov 15 at 9:55 pm
Err, Max can learn from MIKE Maddux. At least Mike will be able to commiserate with Bryan Harper about precocious younger brothers. Actually, the Harpers figure to connect well with Maddux anyway since they’re all Vegas products.
Hmm, I also see that Mike Maddux was an Expos, so certain quarters will be thrilled to see that connection continue.
KW
5 Nov 15 at 10:45 pm
The best news about the Karns trade is that is raises the potential, at least potential, for the Nats to get the two highest draft picks available – if the Mariners sign Desmond and the Red Sox sign Zimmerman.
QO’s tomorrow and then free agency begins.
All cynicism aside, I cannot help but wonder if the stories of Bryce reaching out to Papelbon are true. Bryce is a team leader, knows he needs to be the team leader as others like Desi leave or age out. That’s what a leader does. And he is also a Mormon, after all, and that would be a very Mormon thing to do, actually. Even if not his natural inclination, he is close to his dad and one never knows what parental advice resonates. Good for him in any event.
forensicane
5 Nov 15 at 11:17 pm
I agree – a class move by Bryce, and one that could shape the Nats’ whole off-season. Yes, Todd, the outreach should have come from Pap, but now Bryce has the morale high ground in this whole thing from start to finish, and has found a way to show himself as a team leader.
Even if they keep Pap (sigh), I’m not sure they can keep Storen as well. His psyche seems too bruised, and he could really benefit from a fresh start elsewhere. If they keep both, though, I think that would diminish their interest in a higher-priced setup guy like O’Day.
Beyond the OQ’s, the first Nat signing news I’m hoping to see is the re-upping of Matt Thornton. With Howell opting in with the Dodgers, Thornton probably remains the best affordable option out there. It would be very risky for the Nats to decide to just roll with Rivero, Grace, and Solis.
KW
6 Nov 15 at 5:53 am
Here’s a fun and bitingly realist view of the free agents coming on the market:
http://www.sbnation.com/2015/11/4/9665970/mlb-free-agents-rumors-rankings-2015-2016-offseason
Speaking of old Natosphere obsessions, I hate to admit it, but Zobrist might make good sense for the Nats if the bidding doesn’t get too high. There’s no draft-pick penalty, and since he’s a bit older, he would probably take three years, perhaps with an option for a fourth. He would give the Nats a high-contact bat at 2B as well as everyday capability in the OF if injuries or Taylor’s K rate call for a replacement. I think Zobrist will end up being a better value deal than Murphy, who someone will overpay based on his postseason.
We’ll see. Even without a move at 2B, the Nats have a good high-contact bat there with Escobar.
Of the OF LH bats, I keep coming back around to that Span fella. I completely agree with Brisbee that Heyward isn’t all that, and Rasmus will strike out at least as much as Taylor. Parra really collapsed after his trade to the O’s. Venable might be a cheaper option, but I don’t see him as any better than den Dekker.
KW
6 Nov 15 at 11:36 am
Some more internet rumblings: Fangraphs gave the 2B GG to Espy. Said he qualified and produced more defensive value in 650 innings than anyone else in a whole season.
Keith Law came out with his FA rankings. ‘That Span fella’ came out as the highest ranked Nat. Said he was in line for 4/$80m before the injuries. Zim and Desi got kind of crushed by him, around 19/20. Said he wouldn’t go more than 3/$45m for JZ and 3/$39m for Desi. JZ was the surprise here. Law believes that the deterioration in the effectiveness of JZ’s fastball may be a harbinger of early decline or the need to morph into a different kind of pitcher.
Wally
6 Nov 15 at 11:45 am
Interesting. I’ve always wondered if Espy is capable of producing near-Simmons defensive WAR numbers at SS, but we’ve never had a chance to see with Desi there. I’ve always said that I would be more willing to forgive Danny’s bat at SS because there’s more defensive benefit with him playing there.
The realist in me agrees with Law, which is why I’m glad that the Nats aren’t ponying up for JZimm and Desi. But someone will, and I think Jordan in particular will get up to the $120-150M range. Desi may con someone out of 5/$75-80M, but I’m afraid he’s going to fade rapidly, a la Rollins and Utley.
As for Span, I keep telling everyone to compare his OPS and OPS+ seasons to Heyward’s. There’s not that much difference. Heyward is younger and averages about 7 more HRs a year, but he’s looking to get paid like someone who regularly hits 30.
KW
6 Nov 15 at 12:15 pm
And Yuney got the Fangraphs Iron Glove award at 3B, by a wide margin. Are we surprised? Yuney and Espy were the only current Nats named. Former Nats Kurt Suzuki and As. Cabrera both “won” Iron Gloves in the AL.
KW
6 Nov 15 at 2:10 pm
No QO for Span. OK Boras, where’s our quid pro quo? We’re waiting for the call about that Harper extension!
KW
6 Nov 15 at 5:36 pm
I don’t get why they wait until the deadline to announce these things. Rizzo said yesterday that they had made their decisions already.
Seriously, what is the rationale? Do you think they were negotiating with Span – ‘sign a 2/$20m deal with us, because I am going to give you a QO and no one will touch you then’?
Wally
6 Nov 15 at 5:53 pm
4/$80 for Denard Span?? $39M total for Zimmermann?? those are ridiculous estimates. I was wondering what Law was talking about in terms of these conservative estimates but I think all his guesses for FA contracts are out of whack.
Todd Boss
6 Nov 15 at 7:21 pm
MLB Trade Rumors guesses JZimm getting 6/$126, from the Blue Jays. The money sounds about right. I had not heard that he would be the first TJ to top $100M. I do fear that he’s already starting to lose something, though.
MLBTR guesses Justin Upton (7/$147M) and Matt Wieters (4/$64M) both to the Nats. I dunno. I was on the JUp bandwagon for a while but have backed off a bit, mainly because of the high K rate. He’d slot very well in the clean-up spot, though. Teams wouldn’t walk Bryce with him lurking. He’s been more consistent than Cespedes and is three years younger, plus – wait for it – Rizzo drafted him with the D-backs. He’s also been durable . . .
. . . unlike Wieters. Goodness, yeah, for a healthy Wieters, I’m first in line. He’s a Boras client, though, so he’s not signing until Feb. The Nats will pursue other catching options in the meantime, and if they come around Wieters, it’s only going to be for two years with an option.
Those types of guys would be nice to have, but c’mon folks, the Nats floundered in ’15 because they gave up 80 more runs than they did in ’14. They actually scored 17 more runs in ’15 than ’14. As much as we perceive the offense as the problem, it was more the pitching. My first call would be to Darren O’Day, and my second would be to Matt Thornton. I’d also at least peruse the second-tier starters.
And I’d call Scotty B. about that extension for Bryce.
KW
6 Nov 15 at 10:17 pm
I’m also conflicted on giving up draft picks. It’s supposed to be a great draft year, and the Nats could have three first-rounders. That said, is it worse to give up a later first-round pick on an unknown prospect, or give up well-developing prospects in a trade to fill the same position? I’m sure some good prospects would be leaving for someone like Lucroy or Vogt, for example, probably at the Voth/Lopez/Fedde level, but they’d only lose a draft pick to sign Wieters.
KW
6 Nov 15 at 10:22 pm
Why would the Nats possibly pay that kind of money for Upton? He’s a RH hitter on a team that already has too many. And, why would the team give up a 1st rounder for Weiters? His QO changes the whole equation.
I’ll do a QO analysis; really pissed we didn’t give one to Span. Its like Edward Jackson all over again; are we just doing Boras a favor??
Todd Boss
7 Nov 15 at 7:52 am