Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

110 Responses to '2020 Draft coverage; Overview of top Draft prospects'

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1. Final mocks…

   Callis: Bobby Miller (also mentioned: Cole Wilcox, Nick Loftin)
   Mayo: Bryce Jarvis (also mentioned: Cole Wilcox, Bobby Miller, Clayton Beeter, Slade Cecconi)
   Law: Cole Wilcox (also mentioned: Mick Abel)
   Collazo: Cole Wilcox
   Reuter: Cole Wilcox
   Axisa: J.T. Ginn
   Doyle: Cole Wilcox (also mentioned: Bobby Miller, Slade Cecconi, Clayton Beeter, Burl Carraway)
   Mitchell: Casey Martin

   

   SaoMagnifico

   10 Jun 20 at 9:55 am
2. Just for the hell of it…

   #1 Tigers – Spencer Torkelson
   #2 Orioles – Austin Martin
   #3 Marlins – Asa Lacy
   #4 Royals – Zac Veen
   #5 Blue Jays – Max Meyer
   #6 Mariners – Nick Gonzales
   #7 Pirates – Heston Kjerstad
   #8 Padres – Robert Hassell
   #9 Rockies – Emerson Hancock
   #10 Angels – Austin Wells
   #11 White Sox – Reid Detmers
   #12 Reds – Cade Cavalli
   #13 Giants – Tyler Soderstrom
   #14 Rangers – Aaron Sabato
   #15 Phillies – Garrett Mitchell
   #16 Cubs – Austin Hendrick
   #17 Red Sox – Patrick Bailey
   #18 Diamondbacks – Pete Crow-Armstrong
   #19 Mets – Garrett Crochet
   #20 Brewers – Cole Wilcox
   #21 Cardinals – Nick Loftin
   #22 Nationals – Mick Abel
   #23 Indians – Jared Kelley
   #24 Rays – Ed Howard
   #25 Braves – Tanner Burns
   #26 Athletics – Dillon Dingler
   #27 Twins – Justin Foscue
   #28 Yankees – Bobby Miller
   #29 Dodgers – Bryce Jarvis

   So, there you have it. Could Abel actually slide all the way to #22? Under this scenario, well, yes. That depends on the Angels being miserly and drafting someone well under slot, the Giants really loving Soderstrom, the Red Sox seeing a polished hitter as BPA, the Diamondbacks really loving Crow-Armstrong, and the Mets, Brewers, and Cardinals having a strong college preference. But it’s not altogether implausible.

   

   SaoMagnifico

   10 Jun 20 at 10:19 am
3. Any locals guys who are candidates to be a UDFA?

   

   DC Law

   10 Jun 20 at 10:27 am
4. Gotta take this stuff with a grain of salt, because some of it is mind games and some of it is just nonsense that somehow finds its way into circulation, but BaseballProspects is publishing a running list of day-of draft rumors: https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2020/6/8/live-rumor-updates-mlb-draft-day

   Highlights so far: Angels may punt at #10, which wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Red Sox have lined up an underslot deal with Carson Tucker at #17. Orioles may have an overslot deal with Nick Bitsko at #30 if he makes it that far. Rangers have zeroed in on Aaron Sabato at #14. Rockies seem to have zeroed in on Tyler Soderstrom at #9.

   Again, of course, it’s quite possible none of this could be true.

   

   SaoMagnifico

   10 Jun 20 at 11:47 am
5. I don’t have access to ESPN+ but saw on TalkNats that McDaniel has moved off Cole Wilcox at #22 and now has the Nats taking Austin Hendrick (as in, Baseball America #9 prospect Austin Hendrick). That dovetails with ProspectsLive reporting the rumor that Hendrick is falling and is now expected to go in the 20s.

   So, that’s interesting, especially given our PCA conversations the past few days.

   

   SaoMagnifico

   10 Jun 20 at 12:41 pm
6. Weird stuff going on, but that shouldn’t be surprising. Sabato seems like a huge reach at #14. The stars may be aligning for the Nats to catch someone significant falling. Of course I would love to have Bitsko. Sure would be fun to take him and screw with the O’s!

   

   KW

   10 Jun 20 at 12:57 pm
7. I think that is how the stars are aligning. Now ProspectsLive says the Cubs are looking hard at Jared Jones at #16, which would again be a massive overdraft. Brewers linked to Masyn Winn and Clayton Beeter, neither of whom fit at #20 on talent and track record. So that’s the Angels, Rangers, Cubs, Red Sox, and possibly Brewers looking at underslot deals, and rumors that Hendrick, Abel, and Bitsko may slide while the likes of Foscue, Jarvis, and Walker have late helium. Oh yeah, the Nats certainly might have an unexpected opportunity to strike for a top-15 draft prospect tonight.

   We’ll know soon enough, but it’s fun speculating until then!

   

   SaoMagnifico

   10 Jun 20 at 1:10 pm
8. Latest from the ProspectsLive rumor mill is that the Red Sox are firmly on Mick Abel…which would contradict the rumor from earlier they’re going underslot there. Again, hard to know which of these rumors have substance and which are just smoke.

   

   SaoMagnifico

   10 Jun 20 at 2:05 pm
9. Todd –

   Thanks so much for all of the hard work you’ve done on this topic. You regularly demonstrate the supremacy of this blog.

   

   forensicane

   10 Jun 20 at 2:11 pm
10. And Sao, I always appreciate your interest in the minors and industrious searches as well. And KW, your posting keeps the pot bubbling. Thanks to you all for feeding interest in a cold stretch.

    We are still the champions! Enjoy the outcome, whatever it is!

    

    forensicane

    10 Jun 20 at 2:58 pm
11. DC law: i’ve got a “local draft prospects” that i’ll put up tomorrow or the next day … that should help with your question…

    

    Todd Boss

    10 Jun 20 at 3:41 pm
12. About two hours to showtime now. Here’s what I got:

    #1 Tigers – Spencer Torkelson
    #2 Orioles – Austin Martin
    #3 Marlins – Asa Lacy
    #4 Royals – Zac Veen
    #5 Blue Jays – Max Meyer
    #6 Mariners – Nick Gonzales
    #7 Pirates – Patrick Bailey
    #8 Padres – Robert Hassell
    #9 Rockies – Tyler Soderstrom
    #10 Angels – Drew Bowser
    #11 White Sox – Emerson Hancock
    #12 Reds – Cade Cavalli
    #13 Giants – Mick Abel
    #14 Rangers – Aaron Sabato
    #15 Phillies – Garrett Mitchell
    #16 Cubs – Reid Detmers
    #17 Red Sox – Carson Tucker
    #18 Diamondbacks – Bryce Jarvis
    #19 Mets – Cole Wilcox
    #20 Brewers – Garrett Crochet
    #21 Cardinals – Nick Bitsko
    #22 Nationals – Pete Crow-Armstrong
    #23 Indians – Jordan Walker
    #24 Rays – Masyn Winn
    #25 Braves – Austin Hendrick
    #26 Athletics – Dillon Dingler
    #27 Twins – Justin Foscue
    #28 Yankees – Clayton Beeter
    #29 Dodgers – Bobby Miller

    Right now thinking the run on college arms starts early, the rumor of the Angels punting is legit (they are a mess), and the Nats basically pick between a pile of pitchers they like less than Detmers, Cavalli, Crochet, and Wilcox or the two high school outfielders who slide in PCA and Hendrick. Tossup for me, but I think the Harvard-Westlake connection (Giolito) wins over Hendrick’s school in an unremarkable Pittsburgh-area high school circuit. Basically chalk from there minus the upside of Winn to Tampa Bay and the Braves finally stopping Hendrick’s slide.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 4:56 pm
13. If Wilcox is still on the board at #22, I think the Nats take him over most of the alternatives, but I think they’ll prefer Crochet or Abel if either of them slip, and if Bailey somehow makes it to #22, I don’t see Rizzo letting him slide by.

    There’s some late buzz about Bryce Jarvis, but it sounds like the Diamondbacks are zeroed in on him, so that might be moot.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 5:18 pm
14. ProspectsLive says there’s rumors the Cardinals will take Hendrick at #21 if he’s still there, which would obviously take him off Rizzo’s board. The guy I’m really finding it hard to project is Bitsko, who is all over the place on mocks and would seem like a Nats kind of guy, except there’s been nothing linking him to the Nats.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 5:20 pm
15. ProspectsLive now says the Angels are insisting they won’t punt and are expected to select Reid Detmers at #10. White Sox expected to take Crochet at #11 and Giants now expected to take Foscue at #13, which is good news for the Red Sox if they want Abel at #17, or good news for a team picking somewhere past that if the rumors were right that the Red Sox are going underslot instead of having to potentially pay Abel well over slot.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 6:28 pm
16. Just now checking in. I see the Mets just took Crow-Armstrong. Sadly, Wilcox is still sitting there to taunt us. Maybe Cards will take him. Lots of weird things I’m trying to digest.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:09 pm
17. Dang, Garrett Mitchell almost fell to us, gone at #20.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:16 pm
18. I wonder whether the Bitsko-to-O’s thing is a done deal. He would be at the top of my board for the Nats if signable. If the O’s take him, I hope his arm falls off.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:18 pm
19. Cavalli — crap. He’s just . . . not that good. College career: 4.09 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, including 9.5 H/9 in spring 2020.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:26 pm
20. So the Marlins got Meyer, the Phils got Abel, the Mets got Crow-Armstrong, . . . and we got a stiff who gave up a hit an inning in college in a second-tier conference.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:28 pm
21. FanGraphs:

    TLDR
    Cavalli is a body-beautiful, three-pitch college power arm with a bit of an injury history.
    Full Report
    A chiseled 6-foot-4, 225, Cavalli has a relatively short track record compared to other college pitchers because he was mostly a hitter as a freshman (he was coming off a back injury that kept him from pitching as a high school senior), missed time as a sophomore with a stress reaction, and had his junior season washed by the pandemic. In his four 2020 starts Cavalli was electric, routinely sitting in the mid-90s and touching above, locating a late-breaking, mid-80s slider, and even getting some chases on a hard, sinking changeup. He still spikes too many of those changeups but, again, Cavalli hasn’t pitched a whole lot so the cambio and other minutae could come later.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:31 pm
22. Well, he’s from Oklahoma, so you know that they know him. Perhaps he’s pretty signable, and makes way for a big Round 2. He is a “drop”, though.

    

    forensicane

    10 Jun 20 at 9:31 pm
23. MLB.com:

    Cavalli didn’t take the mound until he was a sophomore at Bixby High and missed most of his senior season with back issues, yet still emerged as Oklahoma’s top prep pitching prospect in 2017. His arm could have fit in the top three rounds if not for health and signability questions, and he turned down the Braves as a 29th-rounder to attend Oklahoma. After spending most of his freshman season at first base, he focused on pitching as a sophomore and established himself as a likely first-rounder for the 2020 Draft — though he also missed three weeks with a stress reaction in his arm.

    Cavalli produces some of the easiest velocity in his Draft class, working at 92-96 mph and topping out at 98 with riding action while expending barely more effort than he would playing catch. He also can make hitters look bad with a low-80s curveball with power and depth, and he has developed an upper-80s slider/cutter that is catching up to his curve. He shows the potential for an average changeup once he starts using the pitch more often.

    While Cavalli has the upside of a frontline starter, he comes with concerns. Though he has a strong 6-foot-4 frame and clean mechanics, he doesn’t have much track record of staying healthy or throwing strikes. His lack of command and deception also means that his premium stuff gets hit harder than it should.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:33 pm
24. Actually, Cavalli was at #22 on the MLB.com board, #17 on FanGraphs, ahead of Wilcox.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:34 pm
25. And Bitsko goes #24. What the heck?

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:35 pm
26. So, it’s McGillicuddy, but not the McGillicuddy I was expecting.

    Cavalli’s results haven’t been great. There’s risk here. But he’s the guy the Nats wanted all along, just like Rutledge last year. And he is big and strong, because he’s McGillicuddy.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 9:37 pm
27. A positive for our stiff: Cavalli has high grades on three pitches, giving him more hope to stick as a starter than some of the others in question.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:38 pm
28. Huge reach for Braves at #25. I would say I smell a later overslot deal, but they don’t have another pick until deep into the 3d round.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:42 pm
29. Obviously no one is touching Wilcox’s alleged $4M price . . . unless it’s the O’s at #30. Or is Kelley their overslot darling?

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:44 pm
30. Yeah, I kind of suspected Wilcox would fall. There are just too many pitchers a lot like him for anyone to pay $4M for Wilcox. And most of those pitchers are still on the board now too.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 9:46 pm
31. If the Nats wanted him to fall to them, and they had a few people who fell, it’s safe to say they rated him higher than he was drafted. Works for me.

    

    forensicane

    10 Jun 20 at 9:49 pm
32. Un-A’s-like to take a HS catcher with Wells and Dingler on the board. Both of those were more their types.

    College hitters in general are falling. It’s a long way until pick #55, though.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:49 pm
33. Maybe Wilcox there at 55 😉

    

    forensicane

    10 Jun 20 at 9:49 pm
34. I think Soderstrom is very much an A’s pick. Local guy, for one, and A’s like local guys. Some questions on defense, which the A’s have been happy to defy the critics on (Laureano, anyone?), and the bat is strong.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 9:53 pm
35. Ha! Well, if he’s still waiting for $4 million at 55, he may be waiting a while longer!

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:54 pm
36. I don’t think the Nats have the moolah to get Wilcox at #55, but it’s a fun thought.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 9:54 pm
37. Dang, Wells to the Yankees, not that I actually thought he would fall to us. He may turn out to be the best college hitter from this draft, no matter what position he ends up playing.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:56 pm
38. And . . . the Dodgers take a better pitcher at #29 than we did seven picks earlier. THIS is how they keep such a high-talent organization while picking late every draft.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 9:58 pm
39. I’d like to note: not one Mock draft had Cavalli coming to us, ever.

    

    Todd Boss

    10 Jun 20 at 10:01 pm
40. Looks like the Bosox completely punted (got the guy #139 on the MLB.com board. Cubs reached (#52 guy), as did Braves (#77 guy).

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 10:01 pm
41. Cavalli scouting report per BA:

    Scouting Report: If you were creating the blueprint for an ideal pitcher’s body, Cavalli might look like the end product. A towering, 6-foot-4, 218-pound righthander who looks like an All-American quarterback, Cavalli on paper has everything you’d want to see in a frontline arm. He can dial his fastball up to 98 mph and the pitch sits in the mid-90s with ease. After that, he has a devastating slider in the 87-90 mph range with impressive lateral movement and serves as an out-pitch to both lefties and righties. Next, he has a curveball and a changeup that are solid-average with growth potential. Cavalli throws everything out of a picturesque arm action and delivery as well. While the stuff, delivery and frame are all easy check marks, there are a few question marks. Perhaps because of how clean Cavalli’s operation is, hitters tend to square up his fastball more than the velocity would suggest. Scouts wonder if he has any deception in his delivery. While the fastball has 70-grade velocity, it plays down at least a grade and perhaps more, and he has a history of erratic control that makes it more difficult to work to his secondary offerings. He improved in the strike-throwing department through four starts this spring (just five walks in 23.2 innings) but he’s never posted a WHIP lower than 1.27 in his career and gives up plenty of hits. Additionally, he has a troubling injury history going back to his high school days. He rarely pitched during his senior year because of lingering back issues and also missed time in 2019 due to a stress reaction in his arm. While Cavalli has first-round pure stuff, big upside and one of the better bodies in the 2020 class, he could fall into the second round because of concerns about how that stuff plays, the quality of his strikes and questions about durability. He was trending up prior to the end of the season and never got a chance to put everything together, but enough scouts have seen him synched up in short stints to dream about his future potential.

    

    Todd Boss

    10 Jun 20 at 10:02 pm
42. Top players left on FanGraphs board:

    18 Wilcox (asking too much? or overslot later?)
    19 Beeter (his helium apparently just buzz)
    21 Cecconi (ranking probably too high)
    24 Ginn (some boards have him lower)
    28 Kelley (#12 on MLB.com board)
    29 Dingler
    30 Witt

    A number of the second-tier college hitters are still left. Are there enough for one to fall to #55? How about someone like Westburg or Casey Martin?

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 10:09 pm
43. See, even BA said Cavalli could have fallen to second round because of injury concerns. Sorry, but if you’re going to take an “injury concerns” guy, that’s Ginn, who was actually successful in college, very successful.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 10:12 pm
44. Of note, Byron Kerr had Cavalli as the Nats’ dream draftee weeks ago. He nailed it. No mock actually had him falling as far as #22, though, as Todd notes.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 10:12 pm
45. Maybe Ginn falls to the Nats at 55. I mean, if he’s telling teams he has a price tag, that sets up for Nats to do my plan: $3M to Cavalli, $3M to Ginn, $1000 to the other 3 guys.

    

    Todd Boss

    10 Jun 20 at 10:13 pm
46. Ginn isn’t signable, I think. He bet on himself before; why would he admit defeat now just because his UCL wouldn’t cooperate? Look for the Nats to sniff around his market (and Wilcox’s) in 2021.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 10:13 pm
47. Oops, I’m missing things here. O’s take Westburg at #30 . . . so Kjerstad pick makes a lot less sense. Still, they did get two solid college hitters from the SEC.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 10:15 pm
48. Sao, I just don’t see how Ginn will be ready to pitch by the 2021 NCAA season, and certainly not full bore. Wilcox has always needed to go back for 2021. He could prove something and actually get his $4M+.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 10:17 pm
49. The video on Cavalli is interesting. (20/80 has video links on him from USA team work): https://2080baseball.com/draft-prospect-video/cade-cavalli/

    He has almost no followthrough. but he’s not over throwing/all arm either. Its definitely easy velocity. His mechanics are really simple; no shoulder pronation, no elbow whackiness. I see some rotational stuff that could be cleaned up at the end of his delivery; he’s not consistent with his trailing foot. And i like the over the top; at 6’4 coming straight over the top he’s coming down on the ball well.

    i dunno. I think there’s room for improvement here.

    

    Todd Boss

    10 Jun 20 at 10:18 pm
50. Burns to Cubs. Did they just get their next Hendricks?

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 10:21 pm
51. Notwithstanding that I am no judge of talent, it’s safe to say the Nats drafted for high ceiling as opposed to high floor. That’s exactly what I would hope for, for pick 1 and pick 2.

    

    forensicane

    10 Jun 20 at 10:22 pm
52. And wow, Alika Williams at #37, even though FG really had him dropping. Several good college hitters still there.

    

    KW

    10 Jun 20 at 10:23 pm
53. Plenty of quality left before pick 55. There have been enough reaches to date.

    

    forensicane

    10 Jun 20 at 10:24 pm
54. Definitely should be some good talent on the board at #55. Beeter is still out there too, as are Van Eyk, McMahon, Jones, and others who had Day 1 buzz.

    I dunno, I’m not thrilled with the Cavalli pick, but I like the upside and I like that he should be a pretty straightforward signing. Overpaying for Wilcox when there were so many other guys just like him available…the idea pained me. He seems like a good guy, and maybe he shows in 2021 he really is a stud and the Nats get a shot at him then.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    10 Jun 20 at 10:33 pm
55. OK, I figured out what the Rays were doing with the Alika Williams pick — getting slot savings to pay Bitsko. Not a bad combo, as Williams still has MLB projection, just possibly with not a lot of pop.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 7:56 am
56. Cavalli — I have often wondered why the Nats haven’t tried to teach the Stras technique to others in the system, particularly those like Rutledge, and now Cavalli, who generate “easy” velocity. Stras comes at hitters so quickly out of the stretch that there are no worries about them tracking his pitches, which is said to be an issue with Cavalli. The delivery is shorter and more easily repeatable (Rutledge issue), and guys who are that big and throw that hard don’t need the full windup to generate big power.

    And hey, if Cavalli flops on the mound, at least they can put him at 1B! His 2019 college slash of .319/.393/.611 beats the heck out of nearly everyone in the Nats’ system.

    We’ll see. They’ve invested SO much in starting pitching, with four 1st-rounders in a row, none of whom have even pitched at the A+ level yet. We’re told that they can always trade these guys for hitting assets, but it will be interesting to see if they actually do so.

    Also, with yet another starter prospect now in the system, do they go on and shift Romero to the bullpen? He will turn 25 next April and really doesn’t have three seasons to figure out being a pro starter.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 8:10 am
57. I’m predicting that the NL goes DH full time; is it possible the team keeps Cavalli as a two-way guy and tries to use him like the Angels have used Ohtani?

    Here’s something scary about Romero; he’s rule 5 eligible this coming off season! Talk about bad timing; the Nats just have to protect him right?

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 8:28 am
58. Day 2: As much as I want the Nats to start reeling in the hitters, I’m still going to guess that they go for yet another college arm at #55. Most of the second-tier college bats are likely to be gone by that point, and the strength of the board will be college pitchers: Kyle Nicolas, Jake Eder, Jeff Criswell, Tommy Mace, Seth Lonsway, et al. Is it possible that Beeter actually falls that far? Is Beeter falling because of team concerns about him, or from a signability issue? Nicolas is similar to Beeter, with big K and BB numbers. Mace is similar to Wilcox numbers-wise, an SEC pitcher who had previously disappointed but who had super numbers going in 2020, projecting as the Friday starter for one of the best pitching-producing programs in the country.

    I don’t think there are enough of the second tier of college hitters left to make it to the Nats: Dingler, Casey Martin, and Daniel Cabrera (all who were mocked to the Nats at #22 at some time or other, for what little good the mocks turned out to be). Is Freddy Zamora also a part of this group? FG has him at #35, but MLB.com has him way down at #100. Similar split on Parker Chavers, #54 FG/#108 MLB. Chavers has intriguing power and might be worth a bit of a reach at #55. Rankings for any other college hitters are similarly haywire.

    College power guys who intrigue me in later rounds include Tyler Gentry and Jordan Nwogu. Some projections have Gentry as a 2d-round possibility. Other college hitters who might come into play include Gage Workman, Hudson Haskin, Zack DeLoach, Tyler Keenan, and Trevor Hauver.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 8:39 am
59. Todd, as intriguing as it would be to try Cavalli as a two-way guy, with his relative lack of pitching experience, I think they’ll just keep him on the mound.

    Dang, hadn’t thought about Romero being Rule 5-eligible. I guess they would have to protect him, although it would be a wild reach by some other team to draft a guy with virtually no experience as a pro, and none at A+ or higher.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 8:43 am
60. Law’s take on the Cavalli pick: The Nationals took a very Nationals player in Cade Cavalli, a big, hard-throwing college pitcher from Oklahoma who should have been long gone but slipped a little as teams asked why he hasn’t missed more bats with such premium stuff. He’s a great athlete and hasn’t been a full-time pitcher for that long, so while there’s reliever risk, he has rotation potential.

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 8:49 am
61. Law’s best 10 players available for day 2:

    1. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia (My rank: No. 14)
    2. David Calabrese, OF, St. Elizabeth (Ontario) HS (No. 19)
    3. Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State (No. 20)
    4. Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State (No. 22)
    5. C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State (No. 23)
    6. J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State (No. 28)
    7. Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (Texas) HS (No. 31)
    8. Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal (Texas) HS (No. 33)
    9. Corey Collins, C, North Gwinnett (Ga.) HS (No. 36)
    10. Kevin Parada, C, Loyola (Calif.) HS (No. 37)

    I’d be ecstatic if the nats got one of these guys.

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 8:51 am
62. I was just reading about Calabrese, who is #97 on MLB.com board and not ranked at all by FG, so real split ranking on him. He may be the fastest player in the draft (some scouts already have 80 run grade on him), and only 17, with gap power.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 9:00 am
63. Sure would be interesting to know what the representatives of Wilcox, Kelley, and Ginn are looking for. Would it be worth it for the Nats to take a flyer on one of them at #55 and see if they could work out enough money? Of these, as we’ve discussed, Ginn interests me more than the other two, although I think Sao also has a fondness for Kelley. Really, if Wilcox and Kelley have fallen this far, there must be a general perception that they won’t sign. Probably the same for Ginn as well, but I don’t know what it would do for him to go back for another year where he likely can’t pitch, or only lightly. MLB.com had pushed him down to #44 on their board anyway, into 2d-round consideration. He would still want, and deserve, overslot money, though.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 9:05 am
64. Also, to follow up on some things forensicane said above, yes, it has been great fun to have this forum to swap such intelligent thoughts on these things. Or at least we think they’re intelligent . . . and based on how the draft has gone thus far, we’re not any farther afield than nearly all the mockers, even the supposedly plugged in ones.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 9:25 am
65. Looking at Law’s list that Todd posted, it seems that Law isn’t on the Beeter bandwagon.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 9:32 am
66. At #55, Tommy Mace really, really feels like a Nats guy. Also would keep an eye on Alex Santos, the Terps commit, although he may not be on the board that late.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    11 Jun 20 at 11:02 am
67. Looks like there’s already a bit of a run on what I was calling the third tier of college hitters, including Haskin and DeLoach. Dingler also gone, as I figured he would be.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 5:38 pm
68. Casey Martin and Daniel Cabrera still available going to pick 50.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 5:41 pm
69. Through pick 50, Beeter, Wilcox, Ginn still on the board.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 5:46 pm
70. Ginn to Mets. Drat. They got Crow-Armstrong and Ginn. That’s the draft WE wanted.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 5:51 pm
71. The Mets are such trolls.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    11 Jun 20 at 5:52 pm
72. OK, Beeter, Wilcox, Cabrera, and Casey Martin are all still there for #55.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 5:55 pm
73. fcking JT Ginn two picks before us 2nd round

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 5:56 pm
74. And we take yet another 6’4″ pitcher! Henry’s numbers were A LOT better than Wilcox’s, though:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=henry-000col

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 5:59 pm
75. Law on Henry.

    Henry was a junior when Braxton Garrett was a senior at Florence High School in Alabama, but went to LSU rather than signing out of high school and is now an age-eligible sophomore. He’s had nothing but success as a starter in Baton Rouge, working with an above-average curveball and solid-average to above-average fastball, but it’s a max-effort delivery and he’s already missed time in college with a sore elbow. He could be a back-end starter if he can handle the workload, but there’s definitely reliever risk here.

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 6:00 pm
76. MLBpipeline on Henry:

    Henry opened eyes when he touched 97 mph and flashed a plus curveball in the first outing of his Alabama high school senior season in 2018, but he fell to the Tigers in the 38th round because he asked for first-round money to give up a scholarship from Louisiana State. He missed fall practice with a stress reaction in his upper arm, then emerged as LSU’s best starter as a freshman before missing a month with a sore elbow. He’s one of the best Draft-eligible sophomores in the 2020 Draft — provided he can stay healthy.

    Henry has the potential for three solid to plus pitches. His fastball usually runs from 90-94 mph and tops out at 96 with riding or sinking action, and he could add some more velocity once he gets stronger. His mid-70s downer curveball gives him a second plus pitch when it’s on, while his mid-80s changeup has some depth and continues to get better.

    When he was in high school, Henry’s delivery featured a lot of effort and some head whack. He has improved his mechanics in college and had no trouble providing strikes as a freshman. He has the look of a durable mid-rotation starter but must prove he can stay on the mound.

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 6:00 pm
77. Fangraphs on Henry:

    Henry will be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2020 and made huge improvements as a freshman at LSU. He turned down some money out of high school as an out-of-control projected reliever with head violence to where he had trouble keeping his hat on pitch-to-pitch. He’s now got a real chance to turn into a mid-rotation starter, but was shut down with arm discomfort late last spring and his velocity still varies. At his best, he’s regularly into the mid-90’s with a plus curveball and solid average changeup along with starter traits.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:01 pm
78. BA on Henry:

    One of the talented draft-eligible sophomore pitchers in the 2020 class, Henry ranked No. 225 on the BA 500 in 2018, when he showed a fastball up to 97 mph as a high school senior with a big frame to match. Henry has started to fill out that frame in two years with Louisiana State and is now listed at 6-foot-4, 211 pounds. With the increased strength he’s also improved his stuff, most notably a breaking ball that now has plus potential. He still can run his fastball up into the 97 mph range, but sits in the 92-95 mph range more typically, with a two-seam fastball in his arsenal as well. His curveball is a power offering with impressive depth, and he’s also shown feel for a changeup that scouts believe can be plus as well. With plus stuff across the board, Henry has all the pieces to be a frontline arm, but scouts have wanted to see more consistency. When everything’s on at the same time he can be electric, but that happens infrequently because he struggles at times to put hitters away or land his off-speed stuff for strikes. Henry established himself as LSU’s No. 1 weekend starter as a freshman, when he posted a 3.39 ERA over 58.1 innings with 72 strikeouts and 18 walks. He was once again the Friday arm in 2020 through four starts before the season was canceled. In that time, Henry posted a 1.89 ERA over 19 innings with 23 strikeouts and six walks. With sophomore eligibility, Henry could be a tough sign but is solidly a Day One talent.

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 6:01 pm
79. video https://2080baseball.com/draft-prospect-video/cole-henry-2/

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 6:04 pm
80. Thanks for the scouting reports, guys. Max effort pitchers always give me pause.

    All of you follow this stuff more than me but I have to ask; were there no left handed pitchers available? None that were any good?

    

    Mark L

    11 Jun 20 at 6:07 pm
81. His numbers are fantastic, much better than those of all those stiffs the Nats were said to be considering at #22, including the one we took. Yet Henry is only ranked #70 on FG, #45 on MLB. What gives?

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:07 pm
82. Look at the video; its him from high school. I don’t see the “max effort” or “head snap” at all.

    

    Todd Boss

    11 Jun 20 at 6:08 pm
83. @KW – Fame, fame, fame.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    11 Jun 20 at 6:10 pm
84. Let’s just hope the lack of “fame” makes him signable . . . and that Ginn doesn’t sign!

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:12 pm
85. I guess Wilcox priced himself out of this draft. Has Beeter? Or are teams just wary of his arm issues and lack of actual experience?

    Casey Martin and Daniel Cabrera also dropping.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:16 pm
86. I’m guessing Tanner Witt priced himself out of this draft as well.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:19 pm
87. I sure would like to start the hitters at #71, but there are a lot of good college arms still available.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:21 pm
88. Have to think the Nats know he’s pretty signable. Nice stats this year.

    

    forensicane

    11 Jun 20 at 6:23 pm
89. Beeter to Dodgers . . . of course. They got Beeter and Bobby Miller, two of the hardest throwers in the draft.

    If Casey Martin makes it to #71, he’s my guy. Nats have a lot of recent history with the Arkansas program.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:30 pm
90. I was hoping the Nats would take Daniel Cabrera so someone could ask Rizzo if he is still tired of watching him pitch…

    

    NG

    11 Jun 20 at 6:42 pm
91. Um, we just took the #149 guy on the MLB.com list at #71. What the heck? With guys like Casey Martin and Tommy Mace still on the board.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:45 pm
92. Infante is #173 on FG, already 19, and probably can’t stay at SS. I’m not seeing this at all.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:47 pm
93. Sure hope they’re not cost-saving to pay overslot to Cavalli. He’s not THAT great.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:48 pm
94. So the sum total the Nats get in return for Rendon is . . . Sammy Infante. Well, and a nice ring.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 6:50 pm
95. Infante looks toolsy, but guys are going to get dinged if they’re 19 coming out of high school. He’s a bit old for his class. That’s OK with me. It’s maybe not the pick I’d have made, but I don’t think it’s a total whiff.

    

    SaoMagnifico

    11 Jun 20 at 6:57 pm
96. Would have much rather had Tyler Gentry, who the Royals just took at #76.

    Infante’s birthday is actually 6/22, but this will still be his age-19 season, so his first summer as a pro will be his age-20 season. As a high schooler, he may only play in the GCL. He’s really starting behind the curve there.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 7:01 pm
97. Padres finally take a flyer on Wilcox at #80.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 7:14 pm
98. Holden Powell from MLB.com:

    As a freshman, Powell took over as UCLA’s closer and held on to the job until the 2020 season was ended prematurely. He racked up 26 saves, second in school history behind only David Berg, and was quickly becoming one of the best relief pitching options in the Draft class this spring, with a 20/2 K/BB ratio while allowing just three hits and no runs over 9 1/3 innings in eight appearances.

    Powell isn’t one of those college relievers you wonder about whether he could start at the next level. The nation’s Stopper of the Year as a sophomore, the 6-foot right-hander is bullpen only, but the type who could move quickly. He typically sits in the low 90s with his fastball and is regularly up to 96 mph. It’s his slider, though, that’s the real separator. It’s a filthy out pitch that gets a ton of swings and misses, a plus pitch for sure.

    Powell does have a changeup, but it’s that electric fastball-slider combination that has peaked scouts’ interest. With a loud delivery, he’s had trouble with command, but was finding the strike zone more consistently this spring and throws enough strikes to profile well in the back of a bullpen, a role he relishes, with the makeup to close games at the next level.

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 8:41 pm
99. Powell’s stats:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=powell002hol

    

    KW

    11 Jun 20 at 8:58 pm
100. Lindsly, a senior not in the MLB top 200. Obviously they’re saving money to pay somebody:

     https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lindsl000bra

     

     KW

     11 Jun 20 at 9:16 pm
101. Of course Cavalli’s catcher is going to willing to sacrifice his bonus for his pitcher, right?

     

     KW

     11 Jun 20 at 9:19 pm
102. Henry is positioned to demand more money than slot to sign, so that has to come from somewhere. We’ll see what the Nats do at #153, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them waste another pick to make the money work up top. There’s still some talent left that’s probably signable in the fifth round, but it’s also the fifth round.

     

     SaoMagnifico

     11 Jun 20 at 9:23 pm
103. I’m conflicted. I do think Henry could be a “bargain” at #55, and might actually be better than Cavalli. Powell is a much-needed bullpen arm who could move up rapidly, like Cronin.

     But-but-but once again they’re getting NO hitters who have a prayer of doing anything in the immediate future. I don’t see anything special about Infante, and age will already put him behind the curve. Lindsly is just a slot-saving flyer, best-case maybe he could become some marginal depth like Barrera, but I doubt he’s that good.

     Scratching my head why Tommy Mace and Parker Chavers haven’t been drafted. Both will be quite “old” if they’re holding out for the 2021 draft.

     

     KW

     11 Jun 20 at 9:58 pm
104. Mitchell Parker:

     http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=215939

     111 Ks in 64.1 IP, 45 BB though. Only 34 hits and 11 ER, so he was almost unhittable.

     

     KW

     11 Jun 20 at 10:37 pm
105. Parker in 2020: 1.19 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 18 walks allowed in 30 1/3 innings (six starts). He posted an 18.99 strikeouts per nine innings ratio.

     

     KW

     11 Jun 20 at 10:41 pm
106. A lot of walks, but jeez, that K rate is bananas. And he apparently hits 95 from the left side. An exciting find here late.

     

     SaoMagnifico

     11 Jun 20 at 10:45 pm
107. Doesn’t appear the Nats will have any signability concerns this draft. Cavalli said last night he’s in; Henry and Infante said they expect to sign today; Lindsly and Parker both indicated pre-draft that if their name was called, they’re turning pro.

     Nothing’s for sure until the ink is dry, but it looks like Mike Rizzo executed his gameplan.

     

     SaoMagnifico

     11 Jun 20 at 10:47 pm
108. In their year of overlap at San Jacinto, Parker had a higher K/9 than Rutledge did. I assume that’s when the Nats “discovered” him. Curious that he wasn’t draft-ranked despite eye-popping stats at one of the best JUCO programs in the country.

     

     KW

     12 Jun 20 at 7:16 am
109. I imagine Todd will do a draft wrap-up, but a few hot takes:

     — The Nats have once again gone all in on arms. They got four who have a chance.

     — I have very little hope for either of the hitters. Infante probably can’t stick at SS and has questionable/marginal power for a switch to 3B or 2B. Lindsly is probably a $10K signee to get his slot money.

     — As in 2017, the pitcher the Nats took second may be able to rise faster than the one they took first. Henry seems more advanced than Cavalli.

     — Sure hope the Nats can sign a lot of college hitters as free agents. They sure need them.

     — Any word why Parker Chavers went undrafted? Is he signable?

     

     KW

     12 Jun 20 at 7:23 am
110. Just posted the draft summary. couldn’t write it last night.

     

     Todd Boss

     12 Jun 20 at 11:12 am

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