Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2019
- Field of 64 announced
- Regional results (post lost during hosting migration)
- Super Regional Results
Lets review the CWS group play. The CWS plays just one or two games a day; a far cry from the first weekend, where 64 teams played hundreds of games over the course of a long weekend. So this post has been written in one or two sentence increments for a week and a half…
My initial Predictions for the Group stages: Vanderbilt and Tennessee.
In the Top Bracket ( NC State, #9 Stanford, #5 Arizona, #4 Vanderbilt )
- In the opening games, NC State continued its upset ways and shocked #9 Stanford with ease, while Vanderbilt’s #1 Kumar Rocker gave up 5 runs in 6 innings against a solid-hitting Arizona team, but somehow Vandy rallied to win in extra-innings 7-6 to move on.
- In the first elimination game, two top programs in #9 Stanford and #5 Arizona battled to stay alive, and Stanford sent home Arizona two and out with a comfortable 14-5 win. Arizona goes 2 and out.
- In the winner’s bracket game, Vandy’s run in the post season came to a halt despite Jack Leiter‘s best efforts. Leiter went 8 innings, gave up 4 hits, 1 walk and struck out 15. Normally that’d be a winning score line …but one of those 4 hits was a no-doubt blast from NC State’s cleanup hitter, and that’s all it took. Leiter was matched pitch for pitch by NC state 2nd-year freshman Sam Highfill, who shut down Vanderbilt over seven 2-hit innings, handing it over to Richmond-native Evan Justice for the two-inning save. NC State shockingly is in the driver’s seat.
- In the play-in game, Vanderbilt was down to their last strike in the 9th before rallying and winning on a walk-off wild-pitch from Stanford’s ace Brendan Beck, who had come out of the bullpen to the horror of every draft evaluator this year (he threw 109 pitches on Saturday and another 43 high-leverage pitches last night on 3 days rest). They survive and advance, but have to beat NC State twice to move on. Luckily they have their two aces lined up on decent rest for the task.
- In the group final, Vanderbilt topped the 13-man NC State team behind Rocker’s solid 7 innings, then got a walk-over into the CWS final. The situation is extraordinary enough to require a separate post coming soon.
Final Group standings: Vanderbilt, NC State, Stanford, Arizona
In the Bottom Bracket ( #3 Tennessee, UVA, #7 Mississippi State and #2 Texas)
- In the opening games, UVA got a huge pitching performance from Halifax County’s Andrew Abbott who shut out #3 Tennessee for 6 innings before UVA’s bat’s exploded for the win. But Abbott’s pitching wasn’t nearly as good as Miss State’s Will Bednar, who struke out 15 in 6 innings against #2 Texas to shut them down and lead his team to victory.
- In the first elimination game, #2 Texas won a slug-fest against #3 Tennessee in a back-and forth game to send the SEC finalists home 2-and-out.
- In the winner’s bracket game, UVA faced off against Mississippi State for the CWS winner’s bracket driver’s seat. UVA’s Griff McGarry took a no-hitter into the 8th with a 4-0 lead … and somehow Mississippi State won the game 6-5. Just one thing after another in a nightmare 8th inning for UVA, who went from absolutely controlling this bracket to being dumped to the loser’s bracket inside of about 15 minutes.
- In the play-in game, UVA sent former ace Mike Vasil to the mound for what likely was his final collegiate appearance, and he shook off some early dust to put in a great line: 7ip, 4h, 1ER, 8/1 K/BB. However, the bullpen couldn’t hold that lead, and Texas’ big middle of the order bats kept pushing and broke through in the 8th and 9th innings to put it away. UVA’s cinderella season is over; Texas moves on.
- In the group final, Texas clased one back to forced the decider, but then Mississippi State advanced with a walk-off in the final.
Final Group standings: Mississippi State, Texas, Virginia, Tennessee
CWS finals discussion: Vanderbilt given a huge advantage by getting the walk-over and thus not burning Leiter, who will throw in game 1. Mississippi State had to burn both their top starters just to get to the CWS final. A rested full strength Mississippi State lost 2 of 3 in Vanderbilt earlier this year, but did beat Leiter.
Pitching Matchups:
Vandy’s 3 starters look like this:
- 6/28: Jack Leiter, last pitched Mon 6/21, threw 123 pitches, would be on 6 days rest
- 6/29: Christian Little, last pitched Wed 6/23, threw 70 pitches, would be on 5 days rest
- 6/30: Kumar Rocker: last pitched friday 6/25, threw 111 pitches, projected to pitch Wednesday if needed, would be on 4 days rest
So, this would be an entirely different series if Vandy had been forced to burn Leiter to beat NC State a second time … the only potential for damage here is if Rocker comes into game 2, which would be pretty reckless. 123 pitches for Leiter a week ago was … pushing it. But the same coach pulled Rocker in the 7th at 111 pitches, doing the right thing.
Miss State’s 3 starters look like this:
- 6/28: Christian Macleod, last pitched 6/22, threw just 35 pitches and got knocked out of the 1st. would be on 5 days rest
- 6/29: Houston Harding, last pitched 6/25, threw 82 pitches, would be on 3 days rest
- 6/30: Will Bednar, last pitched 6/26, threw 97 pitches, would be on 3 days rest
Bednar is the ace. Macleod has struggled and Harding is more of a swing man. But you see the significant dis-advantage Mississippi State is in; the only way they get their Ace is if it goes 3 and even then he’s on 3 days rest, for a guy who is used to 6 days rest. And their game 2 starters is on 3 days rest regardless … and he’s their 3rd best arm. Meaning its likely a bullpen game.
This situation represents a massive advantage for Vanderbilt in this series. But, on the flip side, Vandy’s offense has been in neutral. I think its enough to make this a pretty close series.
Prediction: Vanderbilt in three.
College CWS tournament references
- d1baseball.com’s daily scoreboard is my go-to link
- d1baseball’s Tourney Central
- Baseball America’s College coverage home page
- CollegeBaseballDaily.com has coverage as well.
- CollegeBaseballCentral.com has coverage as well.
- Ncaa.com’s interactive full 64-team bracket
- NCAA Individual player stats
- Warren Nolan.com’s College Baseball RPI
- Warren Nolan’s Conference RPI ranking
Todd, you should have a post on how many arms were hurt by the coaches in the CWS.
I saw a preview on a NCAA site and they were talking on how some of the aces will be pitching on 2 or 3 days rest in the finals.
Mark L
28 Jun 21 at 10:28 am
Yeah … i normally try to project the pitching match-ups in the final. There was some heavy usage but nothing too absolutely crazy like we’ve heard in the past.
Vandy’s 3 starters look like this:
– 6/28: Jack Leiter, last pitched Mon 6/21, threw 123 pitches, would be on 6 days rest
– 6/29: Christian Little, last pitched Wed 6/23, threw 70 pitches, would be on 5 days rest
– 6/30: Kumar Rocker: last pitched friday 6/25, threw 111 pitches, projected to pitch Wednesday if needed, would be on 4 days rest
so, this would be an entirely different series if Vandy had been forced to burn Leiter to beat NC State a second time … the only potential for damage here is if Rocker comes into game 2, which would be pretty reckless. 123 pitches for Leiter a week ago was … pushing it. But the same coach pulled Rocker in the 7th at 111 pitches, doing the right thing.
Miss State’s 3 starters look like this:
– 6/28: Christian Macleod, last pitched 6/22, threw just 35 pitches and got knocked out of the 1st. would be on 5 days rest
– 6/29: Houston Harding, last pitched 6/25, threw 82 pitches, would be on 3 days rest
– 6/30: Will Bednar, last pitched 6/26, threw 97 pitches, would be on 3 days rest
Bednar is the ace. Macleod has struggled and Harding is more of a swing man. But you see the significant dis-advantage Mississippi State is in; the only way they get their Ace is if it goes 3 and even then he’s on 3 days rest, for a guy who is used to 6 days rest. And their game 2 starters is on 3 days rest regardless … and he’s their 3rd best arm. Meaning its likely a bullpen game.
i think they should let these teams get a week off to reset rotations and have the best possible matchups in the final.
Todd Boss
28 Jun 21 at 2:11 pm
Yeah, I am not at all disappointed to see Ty Madden’s Longhorns knocked out. It’s a tough tournament for starters.
SaoMagnifico
28 Jun 21 at 8:07 pm
Should be an interesting game 2; Vandy’s #3 on normal rest versus Miss State’s #3 on 3-days rest. something tells me a 2-game sweep for Vandy is coming.
Really, i would have much rather seen this series delayed to next weekend to give the teams time to setup their rotations. Plus it’d be on a weekend. I guess that’s kind of a non-starter for the student athletes who have already been in Omaha for nearly 2 weeks.
Todd Boss
29 Jun 21 at 9:40 am
Convergence in the mocks around Madden or Bachman. A few have Rocker or Jobe somehow falling to #11, but I just don’t see it; I’d be amazed.
Madden seems like the “safe but not sexy” pick. Bachman has high upside but substantial reliever risk. Either one presumably slot in right away as Washington’s #2 prospect, at least until (and possibly even after) Cristian Vaquero’s signing becomes official.
SaoMagnifico
29 Jun 21 at 5:32 pm
Here’s the BA scouting reports on both:
Madden: BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 55
In Madden’s senior season at Houston’s Cypress Ranch High, he was the ace of a team that also included junior righthanders J.J. Goss (a 2019 supplemental first-round pick of the Rays) and Matthew Thompson (a 2019 second-round pick of the White Sox). Outfielder Colton Cowser, another likely 2021 first-round pick, roamed the outfield and catcher Jared Alvarez-Lopez was a 2019 17th-round pick. Madden ranked No. 238 on Baseball America’s Top 500 draft prospects coming out of high school. The Royals selected him in the 34th round in 2018, but he headed to Texas instead, where he stepped into the weekend rotation by the end of his freshman season. Madden sat 90-93 mph in his first two seasons at Texas, but this year he’s proven to be one of the hardest throwing starters in college baseball, sitting 94-96 mph and regularly getting to 99. He also proved to be one of the most consistent Friday night starters in the country, combining that top-end velocity with above-average control. Madden’s plus fastball doesn’t have elite movement to go with that velocity, which may limit which teams are most enamored with him. His heater is much more effective down in the zone than up—hitters hit .333/.350/.846 on his fastball when he spotted it in the upper third of the strike zone, but only .179/.179/.282 in the bottom third. His fastball does pair well with his slider (which earns 60 grades as well and will flash plus-plus). His mid-80s slider has solid downward break with adequate power and depth. Madden largely shelved his fringe-average 86-89 mph changeup in 2021, but it’s been promising in the past. Madden works up and down. He largely works in on lefties and down and away from righthanded hitters. Some evaluators fear he’ll end up as a two-pitch power reliever, but his durable frame (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), long track record of success and above-average control give him a solid path to being a durable mid-rotation starter. He should be the first player from Texas selected in the first-round since Taylor Jungman in 2011.
Bachman: BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Fastball: 70 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50
Bachman made an immediate impact for Miami (Ohio) during his freshman season in 2019, being named first-team All-MAC after posting a 3.93 ERA over 14 starts. For three years now he’s been a reliable starter for the Redhawks and should become the program’s first ever first-round product thanks to perhaps the best two-pitch combination in the 2021 class. Bachman has one of the hardest fastballs in the class and sits in the 95-97 mph range with the pitch, regularly getting to triple-digits with impressive arm-side running action and sink. On top of that, Bachman’s slider has an argument for being the best breaking ball in the class. It’s a hard, biting pitch that is routinely in the upper 80s and has eclipsed 90 mph plenty of times, with tremendous late life that generates whiffs inside the zone and out of it—mostly down and to his glove side. Both pitches grade out as at least 70s and there are scouts in the industry who have put 80 grades on both as well. Bachman predominantly works off of his fastball/slider combination, but he also throws a mid-80s changeup that has some diving action and could give him an average third pitch—though he’s thrown it less than 10% of the time this spring. Despite walking between two and three batters per nine innings the last two seasons, there is some reliever risk with Bachman, thanks to a delivery that has effort and isn’t the most fluid. His arm action is inverted in the back and he’s a palm-up pitcher, which scares some in the industry, and he also finishes with a bit of violence and falls off to the left. That delivery, combined with medical questions (he missed two starts this spring with arm soreness) and the fact that he pitched into the seventh just twice this spring have many evaluators confident he’ll be a bullpen arm in the majors. Whatever the role, it seems safe Bachman goes off the board somewhere in the middle of the first round.
Todd Boss
30 Jun 21 at 2:48 pm
Bachman’s per-pitch grades are significantly better across the board over Madden. Madden didn’t really impress me in his CWS starts. I feel like both are 2-pitch reliever risk … and if that’s your floor, Bachman is better. But if you’re looking at ceiling, Bachman has 3 better pitches and just a half a grade less in control … so the choice is still Bachman.
Todd Boss
30 Jun 21 at 2:50 pm
I think Bachman is *likelier* to end up in relief because he has that high-effort delivery. It doesn’t look smooth or comfortable to me at all. Madden has good mechanics and ought to be able to reintroduce his changeup and get comfortable with it outside the pressure of leading his team on a championship run. Madden is still my choice here.
I still think Andrew Painter is a wildcard here. To me, going with a prep arm is too risky. But Rizzo loves to gamble, and he might see more upside with Painter than with Madden, Bachman, or a guy like Will Bednar (who is hard at work pitching himself into middle-of-the-first-round contention) who are mostly two-pitch guys and have some obvious reliever risk.
SaoMagnifico
30 Jun 21 at 8:32 pm
And here comes Jonathan Mayo for MLB.com with the monkey wrench, mocking Will Bednar to the Nats at #11.
I’m going to say it: I’m not sold. Obviously, Bednar was absolutely freaking dominant down the stretch, mowing down the Longhorns and the Commodores, but his stuff doesn’t “wow” me and if we’re criticizing Bachman or Madden for having a limited repertoire, Bednar is a two-pitch pitcher with an even less developed tertiary offering than Bachman or Madden. Maybe the Nats, now that they look like a contender (improbable though it may be), are thinking their pick at #11 could be a quick-to-the-majors type who could help out in an MLB bullpen sooner rather than later; in that case, go to town. But I’m troubled that our top options — although I like Madden and I don’t hate Bednar or Bachman — are mostly two-pitch or two-and-a-half-pitch guys at best.
SaoMagnifico
30 Jun 21 at 11:10 pm
[…] SaoMagnifico on 2021 CWS Group Winners and CWS final preview […]
2021 CWS Winner Crowned: Mississippi State wins! at Nationals Arm Race
1 Jul 21 at 9:09 am
Bednar would be a massive, ridiculous over-draft. #38 on BA 500. He’s fine in the late 1st/early 2nd, and if he’s there for us in 2nd round fantastic. But at #11? I’d be PISSED.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2021-mlb-draft-top-prospects/?Position=&Keyword=bednar
Todd Boss
1 Jul 21 at 9:37 am