Nationals Arm Race

Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2022 post season.

First off, some resources for you.

• your final top 25 according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll. All agree; Tennessee is by far and away the best team in the country this year, finishing the regular season 53-7.
• Local teams dot the rankings: Virginia Tech, Maryland, and UVA all in the top 25 as they have been most of the season.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
• here’s the Field of 64 at d1baseball.com (which may be behind a paywall).
• Here’s the field of 64 with some great data points at NCAA.com (which should be free)
• here’s a nice resource from NCAA.com showing the conference winners, past champions, and schedules going forward.

Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha, in order:

1. Tennessee (RPI = 1)
2. Stanford (3)
3. Oregon State (2)
4. Virginia Tech (5)
5. Texas A&M (22)
6. Miami (15)
7. Oklahoma State (10)
8. ECU (8)

You can see that the committee stayed pretty true to RPI for the top 4 seeds, then clearly deviated from the RPIs for the rest of the top 8, which is going to leave some of these teams facing really difficult #2 seeds in their regioanls coming up. Here’s the rest of the top 10 by RPI and who they’re facing:

• 4. UNC: hosting a regional but as the #10 national seed
• 6. Wake Forest: not even a host, goes to Maryland as that region’s #2 seed
• 7. Vanderbilt, this high due to #1 Strength of Schedule, goes to Oregon State as that region’s #2 seed.
• 9. Maryland, who spent most of the season in the top 10 of the rankings, gets dropped to a #15 seed in the tournament and has to face Vanderbilt, who’s actually got a higher RPI.

So, this is going to lead us to some very, very good regionals and a ton of upsets. Here’s some comments on all our DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:

• Virginia Tech: as noted, #4 national seed, has been ranked as high as #3 this year, strong RPI, dominated in the ACC (which was every bit as good as the SEC this year). For their troubles they get a very, very easy regional, with #2 Gonzaga coming west-to-east and only ranked #27 by RPI, the Ivy league champ Columbia, and Wright State. Couldn’t ask for a better regional.
• Maryland: #15 National seed and given the #6 RPI team in Wake Forest coming out of a far better conference as their #2 seed. Apologies Terps fans; you’re likely losing this regional on home soil. I suppose the recent Lacrosse national championship makes up for it.
• Liberty gets the #3 regional seed as an at-large in the UFlorida region, an interesting matchup for them since they went to Florida to open the season and won 2 of 3. They have to contend though with Oklahoma first, a very good Big12 team that nearly made a case to host itself. Probably the hardest regional
• VCU won their conference, and get to head to UNC as that regional’s #3 seed. Uphil climb here, since UNC is better than their #10 national seed indicates.
• Virginia entered the ACC tourney looking like a top 16 seed/regional host, but got blown out by Louisville to end any chance; that loss dumped their RPI down to #24 and now they’re the #2 seed in East Carolina’s regional. Which isn’t bad: ECU’s got a great RPI (#8) but they’re from a weaker conference and were just 2-7 against top 50 RPI teams all year. UVA has to really like their chances in this regional.

Other local teams who we thought had a chance: Old Dominion was one of the last teams cut, coming in at #40 on the RPI but who really needed to win their weaker conference to get in. The next best team in the area to not make the cut was William & Mary, with an RPI of #84 and who clearly needed to win the Colonial to make it.

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Quick predictions for the 16 regionals, ordered by National Seed super Regional matchup

• #1 Tennessee will get a challenge from ACC’s Georgia Tech, but should advance.
• #16 Georgia Southern gets Notre Dame, the ACC finalist and a complete snub for hosting, along with tough Big12 team Texas Tech. A dogfight of a regional here.
• #8 ECU as mentioned has UVA in its region and I think gets upset.
• #9 Texas gets an intriguing #3 seed in Dallas Baptist but a weaker #2 seed in C-USA champion Louisiana Tech. Texas should advance here.
• #5 Texas A&M inexplicably gets a #5 national seed despite an RPI in the 20s, but is let off the hook with a weaker regional that includes a TCU team that isn’t as good as its reputation and the Sunbelt champion Louisiana (aka Louisiana-Lafayette).
• #12 Louisville, who will be a tough out, gets a couple of cold weather teams in its regional and should advance
• #4 Virginia Tech as discussed above gets a cake-walk of a Regional, all things considered.
• #13 Florida gets, as discussed, both Liberty and Oklahoma, one of which has beaten them this season and the other which can beat them. Florida went just 11-17 against top 50 opponents this year despite its ranking and RPI, and I think they get beat. A deep regional.
• #3 Oregon State cannot be happy seeing Vanderbilt in their regional; upset watch here.
• #14 Auburn will, like nearly every SEC team, have to contend with an ACC team in Florida State but won’t be worried about a weaker Pac12 team in UCLA.
• #6 Miami will have fun with two perennial powers in Arizona and Ole Miss, but both of these similarly ranked RPI teams probably cancel themselves out
• #11 Southern Miss gets LSU and a tricky Kennesaw State team. Upset watch here.
• #7 Oklahoma State had to be happy to see Grand Canyon as its #2, even if a recent national champion Arkansas is in here as #3.
• #10 UNC gets a relatively easy draw with Georgia and VCU. UNC played top-50 ranked opponents no less than 36 times out of 57 games, good for the #2 hardest schedule this year behind Vandy.
• #2 Stanford, who went 21-9 in the PAC12 but was just 10-9 against top 50 teams, nonetheless won’t be threatened by its regional but could be in trouble in the supers.
• #15 Maryland has to deal with Wake Forest and one of the best cold-weather teams in Uconn, and seems like an upset in the making.

Predictions:

• #1 Tennessee
• Notre Dame
• UVA
• #9 Texas
• #5 Texas A&M
• #12 Louisville
• #4 Virginia Tech
• Oklahoma
• Vanderbilt
• #14 Auburn
• #6 Miami
• LSU
• #7 Oklahoma State
• #10 UNC
• #2 Stanford
• Wake Forest

Super-Early Omaha predictions:

• #1 Tennessee
• #9 Texas
• #12 Louisville
• Oklahoma
• #6 Miami
• #7 Oklahoma State
• #10 UNC
• #2 Stanford

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Prospect Watch. Who are the top ranked college prospects to look for? Borrowing from the mock drafts and ranking boards, here’s some big names in play for first round action who are in the CWS:

• Georgia Tech’s C Kevin Parada, who many mock drafters have going to the Nats at #5, is in Tennessee to play (and lose to) the #1 team.
• Tennessee is led by two OF 1st round talents in Jordan Beck, a mid-1st rounder who is tooled up, has a ton of power and can play CF, and the guy who actually IS playing CF for them in Drew Gilbert, a high-contact hitter who can also pitch.
• Arizona’s C Daniel Susac is in action but likely goes home early.
• Virginia Tech is led by top 15 candidate OF Gavin Cross
• LSU’s top player is a 1st round projection in Jacob Berry, but he’s held back by lack of position and defensive liability.
• Texas Tech has a winnable #16 seed region with their star player and 1st rounder Jace Jung, whos brother Josh Jung was a top 10 pick in 2019.
• Florida’s #1 starter at the beginning of the year was LHP Hunter Barco, but he went down with Tommy John and isn’t pitching (but still might be a 1st rounder).
• Florida’s best hitting prospect is likely OF Sterlin Thompson, who will be a draft-eligible sophomore with a big bat.
• Oklahoma State’s #1 starter is RHP Justin Campbell, a likely back of the first rounder
• Gonzaga has a top starter in Gabriel Hughes, with a 33% strikeout rate. Should make for a fun outing in his regional when he goes.