Nationals Arm Race

Hot on the heels of the Baseball America top 30 list, we get the fantasy-first Prospects1500 site’s list for the system. They’re the only shop that earnestly ranks to #50, and we often get a decent look into the down-stream prospects in our system in the eyes of an independent evaluator.

Prospects1500 is unabashedly a Fantasy site; they say it right in the subheading: “Your comprehensive dynasty League resource.” It caters to hard-core Fantasy baseball leagues who do dynasty drafting, meaning you draft prospects and keep them on your roster like a “real” team. I’ve run out of people even willing to do basic Fantasy Baseball, let alone the diehards who would do a keeper league with 18yr olds who may not show up for 7 years. That being said, it colors their rankings a bit. You’re going to see ceiling valued more than floor, you’re going to see positions of scarcity (i.e. Catchers) pushed up a bit as compared to things like corner OFs, and you’re going to see future save projections come into play with high-leverage relievers. We’ll cover them a bit below.

Here’s the top 50, along with their ranking for the same players last year at this time.

Current Rank	Jan 2025 Rank	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	3	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
2	Not yet Drafted	Eli	Willits	SS
3	5	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Not yet Traded for	Harry	Ford	C
5	Not yet Traded for	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
6	17	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
7	4	Seaver	King	SS
8	7	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
9	Not yet Drafted	Coy	James	SS
10	Not yet Drafted	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
11	Not yet Drafted	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
12	6	Yohandy	Morales	3B
13	Not yet Traded for	Sean Paul	Linan	RHP (Starter)
14	21	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
15	37	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
16	Not yet Traded for	Christian	Franklin	OF (CF)
17	12	Caleb	Lomavita	C
18	Not yet IFA signed	German	Marconi	SS
19	Not yet Traded for	Eriq	Swan	RHP (Starter)
20	Not yet IFA signed	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
21	Not yet Drafted	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
22	Not yet Drafted	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
23	13	Victor	Hurtado	OF (Corner)
24	20	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
25	18	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
26	Not yet Traded for	Ronny	Cruz	SS
27	Not yet Drafted	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
28	Not Yet rule-5 Drafted	Griff	McGarry	RHP (Starter)
29	11	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
30	Not yet Traded for	Josh	Randall	RHP (Starter)
31	Not yet IFA signed	Nauris	De La Cruz	OF (Corner)
32	45	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
33	44	Phillips	Glasser	SS
34	Not yet IFA signed	Daniel	Hernandez	C
35	outside top 50	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
36	Not yet Traded for	Browm	Martinez	OF (CF)
37	26	Kevin	Bazzell	C
38	Not Yet MLFA signed	Orelvis	Martinez	2B
39	Not yet Traded for	Jake	Eder	LHP (Starter)
40	Not yet Traded for	R.J.	Sales	RHP (Starter)
41	16	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
42	15	Elijah	Green	OF (CF)
43	outside top 50	Dashyll	Tejeda	OF (CF)
44	42	Sir Jamison	Jones	C
45	39	Andrew	Alvarez	LHP (Starter)
46	22	Kevin	Made	SS
47	28	Jose	Feliz	RHP (Starter)
48	33	Marquis	Grissom	RHP (Reliever)
49	Not Yet Drafted	Boston	Smith	C/OF
50	36	T.J.	White	OF (Corner)

Like with the BA list, lots of churn here:

• Only 22 of this top 50 were even ranked last year.
• Of those 28 new guys:
  • 8 are new draftees
  • 4 are Jan 2025 IFA signings
  • 10 are Trade Acquisitions
  • 1 is an off-season MLFA signing (Orelvis Martinez)
  • 1 is our Rule-5 acquisition in December (McGarry)
  • 2 were in our system last year just outside their top 50
• Of their top 50 last year? 18 of the 50 are no longer eligible:
  • 9 graduated/exhausted rookie eligibility
  • 4 hit MLFA status (De La Rosa, Acosta, Choi, Naranjo)
  • 2 were released (Baker, Quintana)
  • 1 was traded (Bennett)
  • 1 was a Rule5 pick we returned (Reifert … remember him?)
  • 1 was DFA’d and claimed (Brzycky)
• Furthermore, there were 8 guys ranked in last year’s top 50 who didn’t make it this time:
  • Tyler Stuart, #14 last year and unranked this year (probably the biggest “Whaaa?” in this ranking)
  • Rafael Ramirez Jr.
  • Orlando Ribalta
  • Armando Cruz
  • Seth Shuman
  • Brennar Cox
  • Andres Chapparo
  • Brandon Pimental

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Ok lets do some quick analysis of the list. Obviously I’m not going to talk about all 50, so i’ll scan down the list and hit some highlights

• Sykrora at #1. We just had a list that dropped him to #5, but these guys keep him at 1-1. It’s obviously a projection of him returning 100% to form and getting to the majors in 2027.
• The rest of the top5 as expected.
• Dickerson way too high at #6, based on his pro debut.
• I’d have put Clemmey above King and Dickerson based on what he accomplished at his age.
• Our three big prep bonus babies come in at #9, #10, and #21. BA had them #9, #11, and #19 so similar thinking.
• The first big surprise was having Linan all the way up at #13. I like Linan that high (I had him #11 on my post-2025 season list), but BA had him all the way down at #23. Big arm, young guy, but 3 DL trips in 2025 give some pause.
• Angel Feliz a bit lower than I’d like to see him at #14; I think he’s edge of the top 10.
• Jackson Kent, who got some criticism in the last post … is also #15 on this list, same ranking as BA.
• Another big surprise: Eriq Swan at #19. BA didn’t even have him in their top 30. I had him too high in my post-season first cut, and early 20s seems right.
• Sam Peterson, the darling of the BA list, down at #22. I think he should at least be in the mid teens.
• Hurtado at #23 when BA didn’t have him at all. Seems like a bonus amount ranking still. Same with Vaquero at #25.
• Wallace and Randall keep their spots in the top 30 here by the skin of their teeth. I think this is about right for both.
• They’ve got Mota too low: #32 when BA has him at #20.
• Glasser comes in at #33, likely depressed b/c he’s not projecting to be a huge fantasy star.
• Cornelio is probably too low at #35; the guy’s on the 40-man roster, which mean’s he’s almost guaranteed to produce in the majors in 2026.
• First mention of under-the-radar trade acquisition Browm Martinez (that name is going to drive me crazy). He’s at #36.
• MLFA signing Orelvis Martinez at #38: i’m not surprised we don’t see more MLFA edge prospects showing up. He turned 24 just after the season ended, having exhausted his 7 years of service in his prior club. He’s now completely in FA years ahead of where a college draftee would be thanks to the early signing of the IFA market.
• Andry Lara at #40. I mean, really? Is he a prospect at all anymore?
• Green stays on the list like fellow big $$ signees Vaquery and Hurtado.
• Andrew Alvarez way too low at #45 … he should be 20 spots higher.
• 2025 Draftee Boston Smith debuts on any prospect chart at #49 … thanks to his Catcher eligiblity.
• TJ White rounds up the list at #50 … for some reason. He hit .231 repeating High-A for the third year as a corner outfielder … I guess its b/c he’s still just 22.

Best players missing:

• Tyler Stuart, as discussed above
• Davian Garcia: solved low-A in his first pro season and held his own in high-A rotation for a few turns. I’ll take that over a reliever who got shelled in AAA. He’s 2 years younger than Swan and had better numbers than him .. but Swan is #19 and Garcia is in the 50s?
• Armando Cruz: I mean, if we’re ranking Hurtado, Vaquero and Green, might as well throw this guy in there as well.