{"id":10031,"date":"2014-12-01T12:32:20","date_gmt":"2014-12-01T17:32:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10031"},"modified":"2016-02-24T16:14:46","modified_gmt":"2016-02-24T21:14:46","slug":"best-contracts-in-the-game-right-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10031","title":{"rendered":"Best contracts in the game right now"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_10054\" style=\"width: 403px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/PerezSal-royals-via-si.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10054\" class=\" wp-image-10054 \" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/PerezSal-royals-via-si.com_.jpg\" alt=\"Sal Perez is the best value contract in the game right now. photo via si.com\" width=\"393\" height=\"275\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/PerezSal-royals-via-si.com_.jpg 655w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/PerezSal-royals-via-si.com_-300x209.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 393px) 100vw, 393px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-10054\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sal Perez is the best value contract in the game right now. photo via si.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Inspired by\u00a0<strong>Steve Adams<\/strong>&#8216; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.coveritlive.com\/index2.php\/option=com_altcaster\/task=viewaltcast\/altcast_code=979cd46f58\/width=470\/height=550\/entryLoc=bottom\/commentLoc=bottom\/titlePage=off\/replayContentOrder=chronological%27%20scrolling=%27no%27\">MLBTR chat on 11\/18\/14<\/a>, I thought this was a fascinating topic.\u00a0 What players have the best value contracts in the game right now?<\/p>\n<p>For several years, the answer here was <strong>Evan Longoria<\/strong>, who signed a 6yr\/$17.5M contract in 2008 and promptly put up three straight seasons north of 7.0 bWAR.\u00a0 We&#8217;re into the option years on that original deal, which are still pretty affordable, and Longoria did get a 9-figure extension, so he&#8217;s not entirely in this discussion any longer.\u00a0 Call him the &#8220;godfather&#8221; of ridiculously good value contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Using the obvious websites (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/\">baseball-reference.com<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballprospectus.com\/compensation\/cots\/national-league\/washington-nationals\/\">Cots&#8217; salary database<\/a> now at BaseballProspectus.com), lets take a look at some candidates.\u00a0 Note; I refer to a &#8220;valuation&#8221; of $6M per win above replacement as a way to &#8220;value&#8221; production.\u00a0 There are some known limitations to equating salary to this figure, and there are others who estimate it even higher, but $6M per is still a decent estimate to use as a quick estimate of a player&#8217;s &#8220;monetary&#8221; production on the field.<\/p>\n<p>Note: we are NOT including the litany of pre-arb players who are putting up huge seasons.\u00a0 This is mostly trying to focus on those players who have signed for affordable contracts but who are delivering huge value.\u00a0 Thus players like <strong>Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rendon, Kyle Seager<\/strong>, <strong>Corey Kluber<\/strong> and <strong>Starling Marte<\/strong> are not included here.<\/p>\n<p>Candidate contracts: I&#8217;ve arranged these in my opinion of the order of value:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Sal Perez<\/strong>: 5 years\/$7M (2012-16), plus 2017-19 club options worth just a *combined* $14.75M.\u00a0 This for a guy who has made the all-star team and won the catcher Gold Glove two years running.\u00a0 Wow.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chris Sale:\u00a0<\/strong>5 years\/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 options of $12.5M and $13.5M.\u00a0 This for a guy who led the AL this year in ERA+ and has received significant Cy Young votes 3 years running.\u00a0 His bWAR in the last three seasons: 5.9, 6.9 and 6.6.\u00a0 That&#8217;s crazy.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jose Altuve<\/strong>: 4 years\/$12.5M (2014-17), plus 2018-19 options at $6M and $6.5M. \u00a0 Two-time all-star, led the AL in both hits and batting average in 2014. \u00a0 Just put up a 6.6 bWAR season &#8230; and the Astros got it for just $1.25M in salary.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jonathan Lucroy<\/strong>: 5 years\/$11M (2012-16), plus 2017 option at $5.25M.\u00a0 this late bloomer signed an incredibly affordable deal, then had a break out 2014 season where he posted a 6.7 bWAR, made the All-Star team, finished 4th in the MVP voting and should have won the gold glove as the best framing catcher in the game.\u00a0\u00a0 His total salary for the remaining three years of his contract is just $12.25M.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Madison Bumgarner<\/strong>.\u00a0 Current contract: 5 years\/$35M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 options at $12M each.\u00a0 Bumgarner was 4th in Cy Young voting this year with a 4 bWAR season but (as we all know) dominated the playoffs, single-handedly handing the Giants their 3rd World Series title in the last 5 seasons.\u00a0 A 4-war season is worth at least $24M on the open market these days, but he earned just $3.75M this year.\u00a0 His options can vest and increase with certain achievements, but even at their max $16M value he&#8217;s still a massive bargain.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yasiel Puig<\/strong>: 7 years\/$42M (2012-18).\u00a0 Everyone thought the Dodgers were crazy to commit $42M to an unknown; now it looks like a massive bargain.\u00a0 For $2M salaries the last two years he&#8217;s put up 4.9 and 5.4 bWAR seasons.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Julio Teheran<\/strong>: 6 years\/$32.4M (2014-19).\u00a0 This contract gets expensive later, but in 2014 he was paid just $800k to put up a 4.0 win season.\u00a0 If Teheran continues to be the #2 pitcher he showed this year, the Braves have great value on their hands.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jose Quintana: <\/strong>5 years\/$21M (2014-18).\u00a0 Thanks to the crummy team he toils for, Quintana&#8217;s exploits have gone unnoticed.\u00a0 But he&#8217;s now got a career 117 ERA+ and has reached 200 innings both of the last two seasons and is signed for a song going forward.\u00a0 Its no wonder analysts scoff when his name is mentioned in trade talks.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Michael Brantley: <\/strong>4 years\/$25M (2014-17), plus 2018 option of $11M).\u00a0 This is preliminary, but based on his 7 bWAR season in 2014 (for just a $1.5M salary), this could be a huge bargain.\u00a0 Is he a flash in the 2014 pan or is he for real?\u00a0 If he&#8217;s for real, the Indians have a fantastic value going forward.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ben Zobrist<\/strong>: 4 years\/$18M (2010-13), plus 2014-15 options of $7 and $7.5M.\u00a0 This was the poster child for years of affordable contracts (once <strong>Evan Longoria<\/strong> got his extension).\u00a0 He&#8217;s averaged 4.75 bWAR over the past four seasons while playing six or seven different positions for the Rays.\u00a0 Even in the final 2015 season at $7.5M, he&#8217;s projecting at 4 bWAR, still a significant under-value.\u00a0 <strong>Keith Law<\/strong> calls\u00a0 him &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/blog\/keith-law\/post\/_\/id\/3212\/as-build-infield-with-zobrist-escobar\">the best contract value<\/a>&#8221; in MLB history; maybe he should be higher on this list.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mike Trout: <\/strong>6 years\/$144.5M (2015-20).\u00a0 No, a $33.25M salary in 2020 isn&#8217;t really a bargain, but the Angels are still getting the best player in baseball for $1M in 2014 and $5.25M in 2015.\u00a0 Even if Trout declines to &#8220;just&#8221; a 6 bWAR player for the next 6 years &#8230; the Angels are still coming out ahead on the $6M\/WAR evaluation technique.<\/li>\n<li><strong>John Lackey<\/strong>: 1yr\/mlb minimum (2015).\u00a0 He had a quirk in his previous contract that vested a MLB-minimum year thanks to an injury a couple years ago, so the Cardinals get the benefit of a veteran innings-eating 100 ERA+ starter at the league minimum.\u00a0 Nothing to sneeze at, even if its just a one year contract.\u00a0 On the open market you have to think he&#8217;s worth $8-$10M\/season.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Steve Pearce<\/strong>: 1 year\/$850k (2014).\u00a0 This isn&#8217;t really a true candidate like the other players here, but Pearce&#8217;s story is worth noting.\u00a0 He was DFA&#8217;d and *released* in April and re-signed a couple days later, but still posted a 6 bWAR season for Baltimore this year.\u00a0 He&#8217;s arbitration eligible for 2015 but how far could his salary really rise after an 850k salary?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jonathan Singleton<\/strong>: 5yrs\/$10M plus 3 club options.\u00a0 He may not profile as being worth this contract now &#8230; but if he lives up anywhere close to expectations, those later option years at $2-$2.5M are going to look pretty darn good.\u00a0 No wonder the players union howled when he signed this deal.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Adam Jones<\/strong>: 4yrs\/$62M is nothing to shake a stick at, even if his &#8220;gold glove&#8221; defense is rather suspect.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Edwin Encarnacion<\/strong>: 3 years\/$29M (2013-15), plus 2016 club option of $10M.\u00a0 Yeah that&#8217;s a pretty good deal.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jose Bautista<\/strong>: 5 years\/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 option of $14M.\u00a0\u00a0 $14M for a guy who probably would have gotten 33% more had he been a FA two years ago.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>How about the same analysis for the Nats?\u00a0 The clear best value players on the team are <strong>Anthony Rendon<\/strong> and <strong>Tanner Roark<\/strong>.\u00a0 Both <strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> and <strong>Doug Fister<\/strong> delivered pretty good WAR\/pay value.\u00a0 <strong>Denard Span<\/strong> just gave us a 3.6 bWAR season for $6.5M in salary; a pretty good deal.\u00a0 But none of these contracts really contend with the above list.<\/p>\n<p>Did I miss anyone obvious?\u00a0 Do you agree with my rankings above?<\/p>\n<p>2\/24\/16: <strong>Dan Szymborski<\/strong> posted his own updated version of this topic here: http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/mlb\/insider\/story\/_\/id\/14832664\/carlos-correa-tops-list-baseball-best-assets-most-team-friendly-contracts-mlb .\u00a0 He goes by surplus projected WAR.\u00a0 <strong>Carlos Correa<\/strong> #1, Trout #2, then a bunch of pre-arb high-end rookies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inspired by\u00a0Steve Adams&#8216; MLBTR chat on 11\/18\/14, I thought this was a fascinating topic.\u00a0 What players have the best value contracts in the game right now? For several years, the answer here was Evan Longoria, who signed a 6yr\/$17.5M contract in 2008 and promptly put up three straight seasons north of 7.0 bWAR.\u00a0 We&#8217;re into [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[485,185,1209,1169,1957,482,241,472,306,2652,2683,43,2562,1335,2046,1913,2663,894,2668,456,2681,1922,2680,2682,77,1869],"class_list":["post-10031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nonnatsbaseball","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-jones","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-ben-zobrist","tag-chris-sale","tag-corey-kluber","tag-denard-span","tag-doug-fister","tag-evan-longoria","tag-john-lackey","tag-jonathan-lucroy","tag-jonathan-singleton","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-jose-altuve","tag-jose-quintana","tag-josh-donaldson","tag-julio-teheran","tag-kyle-seager","tag-madison-bumgarner","tag-michael-brantley","tag-mike-trout","tag-sal-perez","tag-starling-marte","tag-steve-adams","tag-steve-pearce","tag-tanner-roark","tag-yasiel-puig"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10031"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10031\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11977,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10031\/revisions\/11977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}