{"id":10185,"date":"2015-01-08T08:23:27","date_gmt":"2015-01-08T13:23:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10185"},"modified":"2015-01-08T08:23:27","modified_gmt":"2015-01-08T13:23:27","slug":"ladsons-inbox-1515","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10185","title":{"rendered":"Ladson’s inbox 1\/5\/15"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Desmond<\/a>

Desmond is the hot topic today. Photo Drew Kinback\/Natsnq.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Well happy new year.\u00a0 After going 9 months w\/o a mailbag, MLB.com Nats beat reporter Bill Ladson<\/strong> has put out two in a row!<\/p>\n

Here’s his 1\/5\/15 version<\/a>.\u00a0 I love doing these things.<\/p>\n

Q: Do you see Trea Turner as a future leadoff hitter for the Nationals? If so, when? Ian Desmond<\/a> has one year left on his contract, so I have to think the front office is counting on his rising through the Minor Leagues quickly like Anthony Rendon<\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Yes, I can see Trea Turner<\/strong> as a lead-off hitter in the majors.\u00a0 Blazing speed (some scouts have rated his speed at 80<\/a> on the 20-80 scale … which is a real rarity), excellent bat skills during his 3 years at NC State<\/a> (a career college slash line of .342\/.429\/.507 playing in the nation’s toughest baseball conference), and in short sample sizes in the pros he’s got good OBP numbers.\u00a0 Everything you want in a lead-off guy.\u00a0 In college he had power (8 homers in 54 games his junior year playing with BBCOR bat, 2nd in the ACC); that’s a nice combination if it translates to the pros.<\/p>\n

The question I have about Turner is whether he can stick at short.\u00a0 Or, more to the point, if he’ll be a good enough shortstop to appease the defensive-minded Mike Rizzo<\/strong>.\u00a0 All the scouting reports I’ve seen say the same thing: good fielder, great range … and an iffy arm that may push him to second.\u00a0 Well, you have to think Rizzo acquired a guy like Turner specifically because he thinks Turner *can* stick at short, and is a ready-made replacement for Desmond.\u00a0 Otherwise; why get him?\u00a0 Its a heck of a lot easier to find a second baseman than a shortstop in this league (current issues replacing Danny Espinosa<\/strong> notwithstanding).<\/p>\n

Can Turner be a fast riser? Well, he’s not nearly as accomplished a college player as Anthony Rendon<\/strong> (who, lets not forget, was College Player of the year as a sophomore).\u00a0 Rendon ended his first pro season in AA and hit his way to the majors permanently by June of the following year.\u00a0 That’s a pretty amazing trajectory.\u00a0 And it included lost time to injury.\u00a0 Turner ended his first pro season in low-A by way of comparison, and needs a two-level jump in 2015 to have a shot at a 2016 debut, and a 2-level jump next\u00a0 year is going to be severely hampered by the fact that he’s likely to be languishing in San Diego’s spring training facility until June, when he can officially be traded.\u00a0 He’s losing a half of year of development time most likely.\u00a0 So, late 2016 to me is a more realistic goal, if everything goes well.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, that leaves a gap in the shortstop coverage if Ian Desmond<\/strong> leaves.\u00a0 Here’s a thought; if Desmond leaves in FA after 2015, you put Espinosa back at his natural shortstop position, find a second baseman (Dan Uggla<\/strong> anyone? \ud83d\ude42 ) and then wait for Turner to arrive.\u00a0 If Turner can play short, so be it.\u00a0 If he can’t, you put in at 2nd.\u00a0 I like that plan.<\/p>\n

Ladson says the Nats have “been quiet” on Turner since he’s not technically a Nationals player; makes sense; you wouldn’t want tampering charges. <\/em><\/p>\n

Q: How is Desmond not locked up, or even the No. 1 priority? I understand Jordan Zimmermann<\/a> is a staff ace, but shortstop is a prime position and every team desires one. Desmond is one of the best in baseball and can’t be replaced.<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Because Desmond took a step back both offensively (from a 113 to a 103 OPS+<\/a>) and defensively (UZR\/150 from 4.4 to 0.1) in 2014 from the previous year.\u00a0 I’d be slightly hesitant too.\u00a0 I used to think that Elvis Andrus<\/strong>‘s contract was a fair comp<\/a> for Desmond.\u00a0 But now it looks like the Andrus contract was actually a massive over-pay, and valuing Desmond may be more difficult than we thought.<\/p>\n

When I think about roster construction, you go up “the spine” of the team.\u00a0 Catcher, Pitchers, Short and Center Field.\u00a0 Those are the key positions to lock up with quality players.\u00a0 So no arguments that Desmond and Shortstop in general are huge priorities.\u00a0 But now the problem becomes this: is Desmond’s 2014 decline a one-off or a concern?\u00a0 And, what is he worth?\u00a0 If you think Andrus is an overpay ($15M a\u00a0 year through 2022), and if Troy Tulowitzki<\/strong> is the best offensive shortstop in the game (at $20M\/year for the next four years with annual injury issues), then where does Desmond fit in?\u00a0 Some sampling of shortstop contracts: J.J. Hardy<\/strong> is 3\/yrs\/$40M for AAV of about $14M\/year.\u00a0 Jose Reyes<\/strong> makes $22M\/year for the next three years, which seems rather high to me.\u00a0\u00a0 Jimmy Rollins<\/strong> is on an $11M option for 2015.\u00a0 Jhonny Peralta<\/strong> is on a 4yr\/$53M deal for an AAV of about $13M.\u00a0 So clearly the market is at least $15M\/year for a quality shortstop.<\/p>\n

Based on who the Nats have in the pipeline at short (past Turner … practically nobody)<\/a> and based on who projects to be available in FA in 2016 (also practically nobody<\/a>), yes I think Desmond is a priority.\u00a0 My guess is that the front office is juggling all sorts of stuff right now, and just hasn’t come to any conclusions.\u00a0 I’d be perfectly comfortable offering him 5 to 6 years at an AAV of $15M (6yrs\/$90M) with a club option; that’s clearly not enough as the team has offered him *more* than that in the past apparently and he’s turned it down.\u00a0 He’s entering his age 29 season; that’d lock him up through his age 34 season … a gamble for a shortstop, but a good one for a franchise player who has been with the organization since he was 18.\u00a0\u00a0 I would have postulated that perhaps Desmond (with his Florida ties and the heavy Yankees presence down there) wanted to slide into the vacated Derek Jeter<\/strong> spot … but the Yankees just acquired a long term SS in Didi Gregorius<\/strong>, so maybe Desmond’s agent and him are strategizing.\u00a0 Besides; Washington seems like a better positioned franchise right now than the Yankees (as hard as that is to write) for post-season positioning.<\/p>\n

Ladson points out the Nats offered Desmond in excess of $100m and then cryptically says “lets see what happens in the next few weeks.”<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0I noticed Rafael Furcal<\/a> is a free agent. Might the Nats sign him as a veteran middle-infield stopgap until Turner and Wilmer Difo<\/a> are ready?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Rafael Furcal<\/b>?! \u00a0Wow,that’s a heck of a pull. \u00a0You mean the same Furcal who has played in a grand total of 9 major league games since 2012<\/a>\u00a0thanks to injuries and will be 37 next season? \u00a0He hasn’t played a full season of injury-free baseball since 2009. \u00a0Why would we possibly consider this guy? \u00a0 No way; there’s younger, more reliable middle infield options out there. \u00a0Difo<\/strong>, by the way, played in low-A last \u00a0year. \u00a0I don’t think we’re seeing him anytime soon. \u00a0Mid 2017 maybe? \u00a0Ladson says that Furcal *tore* his hamstring in Winter Ball; geeze. \u00a0He also states the obvious; we’ll see lots of\u00a0Dan Uggla and that we should trade for\u00a0Ben Zobrist. \u00a0<\/strong>Thanks for the scoops there, Bill.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0What are your predictions as to how the NL East will stack up in 2015, especially given personnel changes and improved health throughout the division?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Nats win the division with 90 wins. \u00a0Marlins 2nd with like an 83-79 record. \u00a0Mets in 3rd at about .500. \u00a0Braves in 4th at about 75 wins. \u00a0Phillies last place, with somewhere in the 68 range of wins. \u00a0Ladson seems to go Nats-Marlins-Mets too.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0I’m frustrated by Desmond’s strikeouts. If he could make contact for 20 percent of his strikeouts, he would be all world. What can the Nats do to help him make more consistent contact — just patience at the plate for better pitch selection?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Welcome to modern baseball. \u00a0Swing for the fences all the time; strikeouts be damned. \u00a0Nobody remembers you struck out 180 times when you \u00a0hit 20+ dingers from the short-stop position. \u00a0Now … strike out 122 times in 119 games and hit .220? \u00a0Then you’re in trouble, Mr. Espinosa. \u00a0As far as the question goes; maybe you park Desmond further down the order, tell him he’s not a run producer any more and tell him to focus less on homers, more on solid contact. \u00a0Maybe that helps. \u00a0Maybe not; the Nats offense is seemingly always a man down, which means Desmond is always pushed into a 3-4-5 hole spot, where he’s looking to drive in runs. \u00a0I expect similar numbers in 2015. \u00a0Ladson reminds us that Desmond had the flu last \u00a0year. \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Well happy new year.\u00a0 After going 9 months w\/o a mailbag, MLB.com Nats beat reporter Bill Ladson has put out two in a row! Here’s his 1\/5\/15 version.\u00a0 I love doing these things. Q: Do you see Trea Turner as a future leadoff hitter for the Nationals? If so, when? Ian Desmond has one year […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[185,1209,182,1005,135,354,1308,1307,114,1945,513,1210,43,113,129,2716,2426,458,2650],"class_list":["post-10185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chatmailbag-responses","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-ben-zobrist","tag-bill-ladson","tag-dan-uggla","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-derek-jeter","tag-didi-gregorius","tag-elvis-andrus","tag-ian-desmond","tag-jhonny-peralta","tag-jimmy-rollins","tag-jj-hardy","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-jose-reyes","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-rafael-furcal","tag-trea-turner","tag-troy-tulowitzki","tag-wilmer-difo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10185"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10192,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10185\/revisions\/10192"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}