{"id":10255,"date":"2015-02-11T13:58:05","date_gmt":"2015-02-11T18:58:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10255"},"modified":"2015-04-08T10:03:42","modified_gmt":"2015-04-08T14:03:42","slug":"qualifying-offers-are-they-working-2015-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10255","title":{"rendered":"Qualifying Offers: Are they working? (2015 edition)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"The<\/a>

The QO didn’t affect Scherzer’s next contrct very much. Photo AP Photo\/Paul Sancya<\/p><\/div>\n

Last year we did a quick analysis<\/a> of all the Qualifying Offer-receiving free agents to see if the system was “working.”\u00a0 (note; from here out I’ll use the abbreviation of QO for Qualifying Offer).<\/p>\n

Now that James Shields<\/strong> has signed, there remain no more free agents on the market who received a QO from their former team.\u00a0 Lets take a look at how the qualifying offers affected the markets for those players who got them this off-season.<\/p>\n

Here’s a table of the 12 players who received QOs ahead of free-agency (I hope this table is readable once it publishes…)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/td>\nPlayer<\/td>\nOld Team<\/td>\nNew Team<\/td>\nDraft Pick Forfeited<\/td>\nSigning Date<\/td>\nSubsequent contract (w\/o options)<\/td>\nMoney up\/down per AAV<\/td>\nQ.O. Screw the player?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nMelky Cabrera<\/td>\nTOR<\/td>\nCWS<\/td>\n3-81<\/td>\n12\/15\/2014<\/td>\n3yr\/$42M<\/td>\n-1.3<\/td>\nNot Really<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nNelson Cruz<\/td>\nBAL<\/td>\nSEA<\/td>\n1-21<\/td>\n12\/1\/2014<\/td>\n4yr\/$58M<\/td>\n-0.8<\/td>\nNo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nMichael Cuddyer<\/td>\nCOL<\/td>\nNYM<\/td>\n1-15<\/td>\n11\/11\/2014<\/td>\n2yr\/$21M<\/td>\n-4.8<\/td>\nSort of<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nFrancisco Liriano<\/td>\nPIT<\/td>\nPIT<\/td>\nnone<\/td>\n12\/9\/2014<\/td>\n3yr\/$39M<\/td>\n-2.3<\/td>\nSort of<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nRussell Martin<\/td>\nPIT<\/td>\nTOR<\/td>\n1-18<\/td>\n11\/18\/2014<\/td>\n5yr\/$82M<\/td>\n1.1<\/td>\nNo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nVictor Martinez<\/td>\nDET<\/td>\nDET<\/td>\nnone<\/td>\n11\/14\/2014<\/td>\n4yr\/$68M<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\nNo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nHanley Ramirez<\/td>\nLAD<\/td>\nBOS<\/td>\n2sup-69<\/td>\n11\/25\/2014<\/td>\n4yr\/$88M<\/td>\n6.7<\/td>\nNo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nDavid Robertson<\/td>\nNYY<\/td>\nCWS<\/td>\n2-45<\/td>\n12\/9\/2014<\/td>\n4yr\/$46M<\/td>\n-3.8<\/td>\nSort of<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nPablo Sandoval<\/td>\nSFG<\/td>\nBOS<\/td>\n2-44<\/td>\n11\/25\/2014<\/td>\n5yr\/$95M<\/td>\n3.7<\/td>\nNo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nErvin Santana<\/td>\nATL<\/td>\nMIN<\/td>\n2-43<\/td>\n12\/11\/2014<\/td>\n4yr\/$55M<\/td>\n-1.55<\/td>\nNot Really<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nMax Scherzer<\/td>\nDET<\/td>\nWAS<\/td>\n1-29<\/td>\n1\/21\/2015<\/td>\n7yr\/$210M<\/td>\n14.7<\/td>\nno<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\nJames Shields<\/td>\nKC<\/td>\nSD<\/td>\n1-13<\/td>\n2\/9\/2015<\/td>\n4yr\/$75M<\/td>\n3.45<\/td>\nno<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

It should be noted that for the third consecutive year, not one player who received a QO accepted it despite its ever increasing value ($15.3M for 2015).\u00a0 Is this “reverse collusion” on the part of the players, not to play the QO game?\u00a0 For the third year, there were players about whom pundits scratched their heads as to why they chose not to take the offer.\u00a0 While not as obvious as in 2013 (when both Stephen Drew<\/strong> and Kendrys Morales<\/strong> vastly over-stated the market for their services and were severely penalized as a result), the fact that especially Michael Cuddyer<\/strong> and David Robertson<\/strong> didn’t take the QO remained puzzling.<\/p>\n

So, among the 12 players, who was hurt?\u00a0 In the end, nobody really.<\/p>\n