{"id":10830,"date":"2015-06-10T15:15:06","date_gmt":"2015-06-10T19:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10830"},"modified":"2015-06-12T10:41:47","modified_gmt":"2015-06-12T14:41:47","slug":"first-look-nats-top-10-draftees-from-2015-rule-4-draft","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10830","title":{"rendered":"First Look: Nats top 10 draftees from 2015 Rule-4 Draft"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_10856\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/StevensonAndrew-LSU-via-nola.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10856\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10856\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/StevensonAndrew-LSU-via-nola.com_-300x214.jpg\" alt=\"LSU's Andrew Stevenson becomes the Nats highest 2015 draft pick.  Photo via nola.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"214\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/StevensonAndrew-LSU-via-nola.com_-300x214.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/StevensonAndrew-LSU-via-nola.com_.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-10856\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">LSU&#8217;s Andrew Stevenson becomes the Nats highest 2015 draft pick. Photo via nola.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>As we did for the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=6881\">2013 draft<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9311\">again in 2014<\/a>, here&#8217;s a quick introduction to the Nats top 10 picks for 2015.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Here&#8217;s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings<\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> that I&#8217;ll refer to later on.<\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Keith Law<\/strong>&#8216;s <a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/mlb\/draft\/mock\/?season=2015&amp;source=Keith-Law-Big-Board\">Top 100 Ranking<\/a><\/li>\n<li>MLB&#8217;s Late may <a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/prospects\/2015?list=draft\">top 200 draft prospect rankings<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Baseball America&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/draft-preview\/\">top 500 draft prospects<\/a><\/li>\n<li>MinorLeagueBall&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.minorleagueball.com\/2015\/5\/30\/8690455\/2015-mlb-draft-top-400-prospects\">top 400 draft prospects<\/a><\/li>\n<li>MLBDraftReport&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/baseballdraftreport.com\/2015\/06\/08\/2015-mlb-draft-big-500\/\">top 500 with write-ups<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Chris Crawford<\/strong> (now Baseballprospectus.com) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballprospectus.com\/article.php?articleid=26445\">top 100 draft prospects<\/a> (behind a paywall)<\/li>\n<li>Scout.com&#8217;s <strong>Jeff Ellis<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.scout.com\/mlb\/scouting\/story\/1552335-final-2015-mlb-draft-prospects-ranking-1-35\">1-35 draft prospect rankings<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.scout.com\/mlb\/scouting\/story\/1552330-final-2015-mlb-draft-prospects-ranking-36-75\">36-75 rankings<\/a> (some scout.com stuff is behind the pay-wall)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As he did last year, <a href=\"http:\/\/natsgm.com\/2015\/06\/08\/the-2015-mlb-draft-live-blog-day-1\/\">NatsGM.com<\/a>&#8216;s <strong>Ryan Sullivan<\/strong> live-blogged the draft and does a great job of pulling up stats and observations on each pick.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Draft Links of importance<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>MLB.com Official 2015\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/events\/draft\/y2015\/index.jsp\">Draft Central<\/a> home page.<\/li>\n<li>MLB&#8217;s Awesome <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/events\/draft\/y2015\/drafttracker.jsp\">Draft Tracker<\/a>; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.<\/li>\n<li>Official <a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/draft\/2015\/order\">MLB 2015 Draft Order<\/a> (Nats first pick is #58 well into the 2nd round, next #69, then #103, then #134 in the 4th round, and then 134+30 picks there-after.<\/li>\n<li>Official Draft <a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/news\/article\/126797888\/breakdown-of-2015-draft-signing-bonus-pools\">Bonus Pool totals<\/a>.\u00a0 Astros have $17M (most).\u00a0 Nats have 3rd least at $4.1M.<\/li>\n<li>MLB <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/history\/draft\/draft.jsp#\">Draft Database<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Fangraphs <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/scoutboard.aspx\">Sortable Draft Board<\/a>; a great new tool Fangraphs has that lets you slice and dice their top draft board.<\/li>\n<li>Baseball-Reference <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/blog\/2015\/06\/2015-mlb-draft-tools\/\">Draft Tools<\/a>: links to their draft database plus some custom reports.<\/li>\n<li>Baseball America&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/draftdb\/\">Draft Database<\/a> for 2015; this will get updated with bonus amounts when the players sign.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Lets get to it!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>1st round\/#26 overall<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0in what would have been the Nationals first round pick had they not signed <strong>Max Scherzer<\/strong> and forfeited their pick, the Los Angeles Angels went way off-board and picked <strong>Taylor Ward<\/strong>, a Catcher from Fresno State.\u00a0 He&#8217;s not even in Keith Law&#8217;s top 100 and is mostly in the 75-100 range of other ranking services, and players like <strong>Mike Nikorak, John Harris, Kyle Funkhouser, Daz Cameron <\/strong>and <strong>Mike Matuella<\/strong> (a Nationals special; a big righty with power and a Tommy John surgery) still on the board.\u00a0 Unlike two years ago when I complained bitterly about the loss of the 1st rounder, here Scherzer is more than proving his worth and I&#8217;m not as worried about the loss of this pick in a weak draft.\u00a0 But I wouldn&#8217;t have minded seeing how Harris or Funkhouser worked out.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">2nd round\/#57 overall<\/span>: Andrew Stevenson<\/strong>, Jr. OF (CF) from LSU (hometown Youngsville, LA).\u00a0 Rankings: Law outside #100, MLB #79, BA #168, Sickels #101, Draft Rpt #115.\u00a0 A slightly built slap hitter who plays excellent CF for LSU but, from my limited observations, looks like he&#8217;s destined to be a spare outfielder at best.\u00a0\u00a0 More than one of the above draft guides mentioned <strong>Ben Revere<\/strong> as a comparison.\u00a0 (This was the comp pick for last year&#8217;s non-signing of <strong>Andrew Suarez<\/strong> &#8230; who went 4 picks later).\u00a0 FWIW, Law said he &#8220;fell out of his chair&#8221; when he saw the Nats taking him here.\u00a0 I can only surmise what the team sees here; perhaps they got a deal on him and will apply some of the savings down the road.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">2nd round\/#69 overall<\/span>: Blake Perkins<\/strong>, Prep OF (CF) from Verrado AZ HS (hometown: Phoenix, AZ).\u00a0 Rankings: Law #96, MLB #162, BA #137, Sickels #148, Draft Rpt #283.\u00a0 Perkins profiles similarly to Stevenson: slight build, very fast, great fielder, decent arm and a questionable hit tool.\u00a0 He&#8217;s committed to Arizona State and hails from the Phoenix suburbs.\u00a0 For what its worth, in Keith Law&#8217;s post-round 2 write-up, he specifically called out this pick as being a very good one.\u00a0 But, he&#8217;s still *way* overdrafted according to most of the rankings.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>3rd Round\/#103 overall<\/strong><\/span>: <strong>Rhett Wiseman<\/strong>, Jr. OF (corner) from Vanderbilt (Hometown Mansfield, MA).\u00a0 Rankings: Law outside #100, MLB #120, BA #88, Sickels #92, Draft Rpt #146.\u00a0 Developed big-time power his junior year at Vanderbilt.\u00a0 Probably projects as a LF but is no bigger than the CF draftees the Nats already have picked.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>4th round\/#134 overall<\/strong><\/span>: <strong>Mariano Rivera, JR<\/strong>, Jr. RHP (starter) from Iona (Hometown Harrison NY by way of the D.R.)\u00a0 Rankings: Law #93, MLB #170, BA #142, Sickels #215, Draft Rp #198.\u00a0 Well, you can&#8217;t argue with the pedigree.\u00a0 He&#8217;s stepped it up this year as a junior with a huge velocity spike and *will* sign, but he barely weighs more than my labrador and one wonders if he can withstand the rigors if pitching in the pros.\u00a0 Very little mileage on the arm (he didn&#8217;t pitch until he got to college reportedly).\u00a0 Interesting pick.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>5th round\/#164 overall<\/strong><\/span>: <strong>Taylor Hearn<\/strong>, Jr. LHP\u00a0 starter from Oklahoma Baptist (Hometown <span id=\"ContentPlaceHolder1_gvPlayerSearch_lblHomeTown_0\">Royse City, TX<\/span>).\u00a0 Rankings: &#8230; well, nobody ranked this kid.\u00a0 Not even on the top 500 prospect list.\u00a0 He was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dakstats.com\/WebSync\/Pages\/Team\/IndividualStats.aspx?association=10&amp;sg=MBA&amp;sea=NAIMBA_2015&amp;team=1747\">9-0 for the NAIA team<\/a> with good K\/9 rates.\u00a0 Not much else to be said.\u00a0 The Nats have drafted twice before players from this school (<strong>Richie Mirowski<\/strong> and <strong>Matthew Page<\/strong>) with decent success and clearly have a scout working that area with success.\u00a0 Is this a signability\/money saving pick?\u00a0 But for whom?\u00a0 Perkins?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>6th round\/#194 overall<\/strong><\/span>: <strong>Matt Crownover<\/strong>, Jr. LHP starter from Clemson (Hometown: Ringgold, Ga.).\u00a0 Rankings: BA #344, Draft Rpt #161.\u00a0 Great numbers at Clemson: 10-3 with a 1.82 ERA.\u00a0 Tommy John survivor, undersized.\u00a0 Perhaps projects as a future reliever.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>7th round\/ #224 overall<\/strong><\/span>: <strong>Grant Borne<\/strong>, Jr. LHP starter from Nichols State (Hometown: Baton Rouge, LA).\u00a0 BA #348, otherwise unranked.\u00a0 Another mystery player.\u00a0 6-5 with a 1.48 ERA as a starter for Nichols State.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>8th round\/#254 overall<\/strong><\/span>: <strong>Koda Glover<\/strong>, Sr. RHP Oklahoma State (Hometown:\u00a0<span id=\"ContentPlaceHolder1_gvPlayerSearch_lblHomeTown_0\">Heavener, OK<\/span>).\u00a0 Sickels #297, otherwise unranked.\u00a0 Glover was a back-end reliever for Oklahoma State, having transferred in after two years at Juco.\u00a0 MLB says he&#8217;s a senior, OK State says he&#8217;s a junior.\u00a0 Either way, he&#8217;s a reliever who could be quicker to the majors, which isn&#8217;t too bad a pick for the 8th round.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>9th round\/#284 overall<\/strong><\/span>: <strong>David Kerian<\/strong>, Sr. switch hitting 1B from Illinois (Hometown: <span id=\"ContentPlaceHolder1_gvPlayerSearch_lblHomeTown_0\">Dakota Dunes, SD<\/span>).\u00a0 He hit .366 with 14 homers on the year for one of the best teams in the country.\u00a0 Not a bad pick.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>10th round\/#314 overall<\/strong><\/span>: <strong>Taylor Guilbeau<\/strong>, Sr lefty starter from Alabama (Hometown Slaughter, LA): nice sign here, getting a Friday starter in the SEC.\u00a0 3-6 with a 3.69 ERA on his senior season, which ended in the SEC playoffs for Alabama this year.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Breakdown by position:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Three outfielders, two definite CFs and one corner OF.<\/li>\n<li>One 1B who could feature as a corner OF<\/li>\n<li>Five college starters: four LHP and one RHP<\/li>\n<li>One college reliever (RHP)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>His first three picks were outfielders &#8230; then 6 of the next 7 were arms.\u00a0 Mostly left-handed college starters.\u00a0 How many of these starters will profile as pro relievers?\u00a0 Probabaly a few of them; Rivera for sure, likely Crownover, probably Guilbeau as well.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Breakdown by Player Demographic<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>One Prep\/HS player<\/li>\n<li>Six College Juniors, all four-year college picks<\/li>\n<li>Three College Seniors, all from four-year colleges<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Well, Rizzo likes college grads, and this shows it.\u00a0 ONE prep player out of his first 10 picks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Breakdown by Region<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Southeastern US: 1 from LSU, 1 from Vanderbilt, 1 from Clemson, 1 from Nichols State, 1 from Alabama<\/li>\n<li>Midwest: 1 from Oklahoma Baptist, 1 from Oklahoma State, 1 from Illinois<\/li>\n<li>Southwest: 1 from Arizona<\/li>\n<li>Northeast: 1 from Iona College<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Its amazing to me, year after year we seem to see this.\u00a0 The Nats draft so heavily from the southeast and midwest.\u00a0 Meanwhile, everyone knows that the two best states for prospects are California and Florida.\u00a0 If you look at the home towns of these top 10 picks, still nobody from the two major baseball states and just one guy who hails from Texas.\u00a0 I guess Rizzo really trusts his area scouts down there.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Well, like in 2013 when you don&#8217;t have a 1st round pick &#8230; you&#8217;re not likely to end up with a name that you&#8217;ve heard in the pre-draft coverage.\u00a0 And I hadn&#8217;t heard of practically any of these guys prior to seeing their names read.\u00a0 Picks 8-10 seem like typical low-value senior signs, but you have to wonder where the draft bonus dollars are going here.\u00a0 Is everyone signing for slot?\u00a0 Are there any risky picks here?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we did for the 2013 draft, and again in 2014, here&#8217;s a quick introduction to the Nats top 10 picks for 2015. Here&#8217;s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings that I&#8217;ll refer to later on. Keith Law&#8216;s Top 100 Ranking MLB&#8217;s Late may top 200 draft prospect rankings. Baseball America&#8217;s top 500 draft prospects [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2814,498,2821,2242,2828,2799,2826,2820,590,110,2827,2620,2818,2823,2825,2473,1037,2643,2617,129,2822,941,1611,2829,2824,2819],"class_list":["post-10830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-andrew-stevenson","tag-ben-revere","tag-blake-perkins","tag-chris-crawford","tag-david-kerian","tag-daz-cameron","tag-grant-borne","tag-john-harris","tag-john-sickels","tag-keith-law","tag-koda-glover","tag-kyle-funkhouser","tag-leff-ellis","tag-mariano-rivera-jr","tag-matt-crownover","tag-matthew-page","tag-max-scherzer","tag-mike-matuella","tag-mike-nikorak","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-rhett-wiseman","tag-richie-mirowski","tag-ryan-sullivan","tag-taylor-guilbeau","tag-taylor-hearn","tag-taylor-ward"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10830"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10830\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10886,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10830\/revisions\/10886"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}