{"id":11275,"date":"2015-10-05T09:30:50","date_gmt":"2015-10-05T13:30:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11275"},"modified":"2015-10-05T09:30:50","modified_gmt":"2015-10-05T13:30:50","slug":"gm-for-a-day-or-an-off-season-what-do-you-do-to-this-team-for-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11275","title":{"rendered":"GM for a day (or an off-season): what do you do to this team for 2016?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Picture at the top of his C.V. that he’ll be updating this off-season. Photo Nats official 2014 via sportingnews.com<\/p><\/div>\n

How about some navel gazing to start the off-season?\u00a0 2015 was a train wreck, both on the field (the projected opening day line up played together exactly 2 games out of 162 and there were something like 15 D\/L trips among the projected starters this season) and off (the Barry Svrluga <\/strong>series at the Washington Post literally made me say “Wow” audibly while I sat alone reading the stories).\u00a0 What can this team really do to right the ship for next year?<\/p>\n

Now, I realize the questions “What *should* they do?” and “What *will* they do?” are two completely separate questions.\u00a0 I have no idea what they will actually do; its hard to read Mike Rizzo<\/strong> and the Ted Lerner<\/strong>-led ownership group.\u00a0 We often hear that Rizzo has an “ego” and is sometimes afraid to admit mistakes.\u00a0 We hear rumors that Lerner is in bed with Scott Boras<\/strong> and has gone over Rizzo’s head to sign players Rizzo may not have actually wanted (Rafael Soriano<\/strong>, Jonathan Papelbon<\/strong>?).\u00a0 But we’re not blessed with a hidden camera inside the boardroom of the Nationals management offices, so its mostly speculation.\u00a0 In fact, Svruluga’s stories really led the reader to believe that the Papelbon acquisition was Rizzo’s idea as a consolation prize to acquiring Chapman<\/strong> or Kimbrel<\/strong>.\u00a0 So who knows.<\/p>\n

This post is about what I’d do.\u00a0 From a front-office\/managerial perspective:<\/p>\n

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  1. Fire Matt Williams<\/strong>.\u00a0 Sorry, the evidence is too overwhelming at this point.\u00a0 Here’s some quick qualifications for the manager i’d like to see: able to communicate properly, isn’t a Micro managing inflexible drill sergeant, knows how to read a Run-Expectancy chart, knows how to properly set a lineup, realizes that saves are useless and isn’t afraid to throw his best pitcher when needed, understands that bunting was exposed as mostly useless 10 years ago, is open to new ideas about usage, shifting, matchups and statistics in general, listens to his coaches, understands that sometimes the 23 yr old precocious rookie is actually a better player than the 38 year old vet on an 9-figure deal, and lastly, relates to the frigging players.\u00a0 Shouldn’t be too hard.\u00a0 Oh one more thing; I want someone who has actually managed a f*cking major league team before.<\/li>\n
  2. I don’t have an opinion on the rest of the staff but would go under the general theory that a new manager wants his own staff in place.\u00a0 Who knows if hitting coaches, pitching coaches, bench coaches, bullpen coaches and 1st\/3rd base coaches have any impact on the players.\u00a0 Hard to prove one way or the other; if the team hits well, the Hitting Coach is a genius.\u00a0 If the team can’t hit … the hitting coach gets canned.\u00a0 I like Steve McCatty<\/strong> … but hey, a new manager deserves his own coaches.<\/li>\n
  3. Keep Rizzo, but have a serious talk with him about clubhouse chemistry and roster construction and the clear effects their actions have had over the years.\u00a0 Its really simple: when a guy who’s been with the organization is given an under-market, professionally insulting extension contract offer and then you give $210M to some outsider … that’s “Baaaaaaaad” for morale.\u00a0 When you tell everyone you can’t “afford” to keep Tyler Clippard<\/strong> (great clubhouse guy, grown up in the organization, thrown 70+ innings year after year for you) because he makes $8.5M …but then you bring in a clubhouse disaster like Papelbon at $11M to replace your UNION REPRESENTATIVE and all around well liked guy Drew Storen<\/strong>, you may have some downstream issues.\u00a0 Oh; one other thing: take your ego and throw it away and stop trading away useful bullpen parts like Jerry Blevins<\/strong> because he had the audacity of challenging you in arbitration over $200k.\u00a0 You either are or are not on a budget; $200k represented exactly 0.125% of the $160M payroll of 2015.\u00a0 That’s like killing a deal for a $500,000 house over a $625 bill for something or another.\u00a0 Its nothing and it should not have been a factor in the 25-man roster construction.\u00a0 That Blevins got hurt for New York or that Felipe Rivero<\/strong> (his replacement) worked out isn’t the point.<\/li>\n
  4. Budget: here’s a brilliant idea; if Lerner is “freezing” the budget mid-season, then SAVE SOME PAYROLL MONEY for mid-season acquisitions.\u00a0 Look what the frigging Mets were able to accomplish this trade deadline by being flexible with their payroll and their prospects; they completely remade that team, bought a clubhouse presence and just raced ahead of the Nats.\u00a0 (Tangent: For\u00a0 you “clubhouse chemistry is BS” proponents, can you still tell me with a straight face that the 2015 fortunes of the Mets and Nationals had NOTHING to do with chemistry?)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Now, assuming that the Nats are going to reign back in the budget slightly from their $160M plus payroll in 2015:<\/p>\n

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    1. Let 8 of the 9 FAs go.\u00a0 Zimmermann, Uggla, Fister, Desmond, Span, McLouth, Janssen<\/strong> and Johnson<\/strong>.\u00a0 This frees up approximately $60M in payroll.\u00a0 You’re going to need some of it in arb extensions (there’s 8 arbitration cases<\/a> pending though we may trade\/non-tender a couple).<\/li>\n
    2. I’d try to resign just one of my FAs: Matt Thornton<\/strong>.\u00a0 I think he’s done a pretty good job as a situational lefty.<\/li>\n
    3. I’d offer Qualifying Offers to Zimmermann, Desmond and Span but not Fister.\u00a0 Both Zimmermann and Desmond turned down significant deals to stay here and have made their beds at this point.\u00a0 I think the team has made the decision to not allocate money there and go with internal options.\u00a0 I don’t think any of the three take the QO, not even Span.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Because Span just hired Scott Boras and Boras will tell Span there’s a long term contract to be had in the market.\u00a0 Span didn’t hire Boras so he could take a one-year Qualifying Offer (deeper discussion on QOs for the Nats pending FAs was previously done here: To Qualifying Offer, or not to Qualifying Offer (2015 version).<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n
    4. I havn’t done major analysis of Tender\/Non-Tender cases yet but the only guy seemingly in jeopardy of a non-tender is Tyler Moore<\/strong>; discussed more below.\u00a0 Maybe David Carpenter<\/strong> too depending on the severity of his shoulder injury.<\/li>\n
    5. Rule-5: this is more about the 25-man roster and not the edges of the 40-man; we’ll do a separate rule-5 post later on.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      So, this leaves the 25-man roster looking like this for 2016 as a starting point;<\/p>\n