{"id":11300,"date":"2015-11-24T09:54:37","date_gmt":"2015-11-24T14:54:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11300"},"modified":"2015-11-24T09:54:37","modified_gmt":"2015-11-24T14:54:37","slug":"2016-nationals-payroll-projection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11300","title":{"rendered":"2016 Nationals Payroll Projection"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Werth<\/a>

Werth is still the high-man on the payroll. Photo via fansided.com<\/p><\/div>\n

So, one big factor in any team’s off-season plan is figuring out exactly what the payroll is going to look like, to figure out what their budget is, and then go shopping from there.\u00a0 This post goes through the guys we have under contract as we speak to try to do some projections of what we already have committed in terms of 2016 dollars and therefore draw some conclusions about how much FA shopping\/veteran salary acquisition we’ll be doing this coming off-season.<\/p>\n

(note: all this data is, of course, in a Google XLS for your perusal<\/a> and\/or available as a Link to the right).<\/p>\n

The 2015 Nats opening day payroll (according to Cots) was $162,014,559<\/a>.\u00a0 This represented about a $25M bump from the previous year and included a significant amount of money heading to Free Agents in the last year of their deals.\u00a0 Here’s the list of Salary immediately coming off the books from the 2015 team:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/td>\nCurrent or 2015 Contract<\/td>\n2015 Salary<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zimmermann, Jordan<\/td>\n2yr\/$24M (14-15) 7.5 and 16.5<\/td>\n$16,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Desmond, Ian<\/td>\n2yr\/$17.5M (14-15), 6.5 and 11<\/td>\n$11,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Span, Denard<\/td>\n5 years\/$16.5M (10-14), $9M club opt 15<\/td>\n$9,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
McLouth, Nate<\/td>\n2yr\/$10.75M (14-15) with opt<\/td>\n$5,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Thornton, Matt<\/td>\n2yr\/$7M (14-15)<\/td>\n$3,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Janssen, Casey<\/td>\n1yr\/$5M (15) 2016 optn<\/td>\n$3,500,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Uggla, Dan<\/td>\n1yr\/mlb min (15)<\/td>\n$507,500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Johnson, Reed<\/td>\n1yr\/1M (15)<\/td>\n$1,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fister, Doug<\/td>\n1yr, $7.2M (14) (arb2)<\/td>\n$11,400,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nsum –><\/td>\n$61,407,500<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

So, that’s $61M coming off the books.\u00a0 I’ve counted the option buyout dollars for the 2016 options of Janssen<\/strong> and McLouth<\/strong> in the 2016 figures, but this is still a significant sum.<\/p>\n

So, 61M coming off the books; how much are we committed to for 2016 as things stand?<\/p>\n

First, lets look at dollars committed to Existing Veteran Players under Contract<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/td>\nCurrent or 2015 Contract<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n2016<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Scherzer, Max<\/td>\n7yr\/$210M (15-21), half deferred<\/td>\n$17,142,857<\/td>\n$15,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Werth, Jayson<\/td>\n7 yr\/$126M (11-17)<\/td>\n$21,571,429<\/td>\n$21,571,429<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zimmerman, Ryan<\/td>\n6 yr\/$100M (14-19)+20 opt<\/td>\n$14,000,000<\/td>\n$14,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gonzalez, Gio<\/td>\n5yr\/$42M (12-16)+17,18 options<\/td>\n$11,100,000<\/td>\n$12,100,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Papelbon, Jonathan<\/td>\n4yr\/$50M + 2016 Optn (11M, 3M deferred)<\/td>\n$13,000,000<\/td>\n$8,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Escobar, Yunel<\/td>\n2yr\/$13M (15-16) 2017 optn<\/td>\n$5,000,000<\/td>\n$7,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harper, Bryce<\/td>\n2yr\/$7.5M (15-16)<\/td>\n$2,500,000<\/td>\n$5,000,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nsum –><\/td>\n$82,671,429<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

I count about $82M committed to these 7 players for 2016.\u00a0 I’m only counting Scherzer<\/strong>‘s salary at the $15M for 2016 since that’s what he’s gonna get paid exactly in 2016.\u00a0 Cots has a whole complicated explanation when it estimates payroll on its site (see this link<\/a>) by prorating his signing bonus over 7 years and a whole different calculation made for luxury tax purposes, but I think that’s a mistake to use anything other than the actual dollars going out the door in a given year.\u00a0 The Lerner’s kicked that can well down the road by getting him to agree to defer literally half the money in the deal for the express purpose of keeping its present value down for their budget, so that’s how i’m figuring it here. If you disagree, feel free to argue about it in the comments.<\/p>\n

If the Nats can move Papelbon and some of his $11M in salary, all the better, but I figure they’ll likely have to eat a lot of it to do so, so I can’t see this figure moving much with off-season trades.<\/p>\n

Next, lets look at the Players Eligible for Arbitration<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 I’ve put in some quick guesses\/estimates for arbitration figures for these players.\u00a0 I’ve historically been somewhat conservative in my guesses, so these might be off by a million here or there, but in the macro sense it won’t make that much difference.\u00a0 If you think i’m wildly wrong about (say) my Strasburg estimate, lets argue in the comments:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/td>\nCurrent or 2015 Contract<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n2016<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Strasburg, Stephen<\/td>\n1yr\/7.4M (15) (arb3)<\/td>\n$7,400,000<\/td>\n$12,000,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Storen, Drew<\/td>\n1yr\/$5.7M (15) (arb4)<\/td>\n$5,700,000<\/td>\n$7,600,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ramos, Wilson<\/td>\n1yr\/$3.55M (15) (arb3)<\/td>\n$3,550,000<\/td>\n$4,700,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rendon, Anthony<\/td>\n4yr\/$7.2M ($6M bonus) (11-14)+15 opt (arb1)<\/td>\n$1,800,000<\/td>\n$4,000,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stammen, Craig<\/td>\n1yr\/$2.25M (15) (arb4)<\/td>\n$2,250,000<\/td>\n$2,400,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Espinosa, Danny<\/td>\n1yr\/$1.8M (15) (arb2)<\/td>\n$1,800,000<\/td>\n$3,200,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lobaton, Jose<\/td>\n1yr\/$1.2M (15) (arb3)<\/td>\n$1,200,000<\/td>\n$1,500,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Moore, Tyler<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.5182M (15) (arb1)<\/td>\n$518,200<\/td>\n$1,200,000<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nsum –><\/td>\n$36,600,000<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

So, if we keep all these guys I can see them costing in arbitration about $36.6M.\u00a0 It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Storen<\/strong> traded of course, nor would it surprise me to see Moore<\/strong> DFA’d outright, or for the team to acquire another backup catcher and part ways with the light-hitting Lobaton<\/strong>.\u00a0 But we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.\u00a0 For now, $36.6M is a good estimate.\u00a0 Thankfully Strasburg<\/strong> really struggled this year, otherwise his arb-3 figure might be closer to Zimmermann’s last arb figure ($16.5M) than the $12-13 he may eventually get.<\/p>\n

Coincidentally on Rendon: did you guys see where he made the Super-2 cutoff<\/a> on the exact day in terms of service time?\u00a0 2 years, 130 days.\u00a0 And that’s exactly what he has.\u00a0 So, depending on how he plays over the next few years that likely costs the Nats at least $8-10M in salary.\u00a0 Hey, not my money.\u00a0 I don’t exactly think the team was actively trying to manipulate his time like they did with Strasburg, so maybe they just don’t care.<\/p>\n

So that’s 7 vets and 8 arbitration cases.\u00a0 That leaves 10 players to fill out the rest of the 25-man roster and they’re all Pre-Arbitration Players<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/td>\nCurrent or 2015 Contract<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n2016<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Roark, Tanner<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.5296M (15)<\/td>\n$529,600<\/td>\n$550,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Robinson, Clint<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.525M (15)<\/td>\n$525,000<\/td>\n$550,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Barrett, Aaron<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.5142M (15)<\/td>\n$514,200<\/td>\n$530,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
den Dekker, Matt<\/td>\n1 yr\/$512,972 (15)<\/td>\n$512,972<\/td>\n$525,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Treinen, Blake<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.5128M (15)<\/td>\n$512,800<\/td>\n$530,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Taylor, Michael<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.5087M (15)<\/td>\n$508,700<\/td>\n$525,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rivero, Felipe<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$510,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ross, Joe<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$515,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Turner, Trea<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$515,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Solis, Sammy<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/td>\n$510,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nsum –><\/td>\n$5,260,000<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

If the 2016 season started tomorrow, this is how i’d project the rest of the roster coincidentally.<\/p>\n

Even factoring in nominal raises for guys like Roark<\/strong> and Robinson<\/strong>, this still doesn’t even total half of what Papelbon is due in 2016.\u00a0 Pre-Arbitration players; the best deal in the game!<\/p>\n

Here’s the rest of the 40-man roster, who under my projections would be toiling somewhere in the minors on a 40-man roster prorated basis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/td>\nCurrent or 2015 Contract<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Davis, Erik<\/td>\n1 yr\/$0.5089M (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cole, A.J.<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
de los Santos, Abel<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Difo, Wilmer<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Goodwin, Brian<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Grace, Matt<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hill, Taylor<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jordan, Taylor<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Martin, Rafael<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Severino, Pedro<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kieboom, Spencer<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (16)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bostick, Chris<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (16)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lee, Nick<\/td>\n1yr Minor League deal (16)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

I don’t think Cots counts these guys against payroll because unless they’re on the 25-man roster actively, they’re not necessarily getting paid like it.\u00a0 I think.\u00a0\u00a0I’m open to suggestion here.<\/p>\n

\n

So, where does that leave us?<\/p>\n