{"id":11425,"date":"2015-10-27T10:30:08","date_gmt":"2015-10-27T14:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11425"},"modified":"2015-10-27T10:30:08","modified_gmt":"2015-10-27T14:30:08","slug":"2015-world-series-matchup-and-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11425","title":{"rendered":"2015 World Series matchup and Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_7232\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarveyMatt-071013-via-cbssports.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7232\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-7232\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarveyMatt-071013-via-cbssports.com_-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Can Batman bring a championship to New  York? Photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarveyMatt-071013-via-cbssports.com_-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarveyMatt-071013-via-cbssports.com_.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-7232\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Can Batman bring a championship to New York? Photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Post season predictions so far:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Wild Card Games: (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11303\">link to my prediction post<\/a>): <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">got both Houston and Cubs WC wins right<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li>NLDS: (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11317\">link to my prediction post<\/a>):\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Got LA in 5 games wrong<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">got Cubs in 4 exactly right<\/span><\/li>\n<li>ALDS: (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11312\">link to my prediction post<\/a>): <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Got Toronto in 4 correct, got KC in 5 exactly right<\/span><\/li>\n<li>NLCS: (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11346\">link to my prediction post<\/a>): Predicted Cubs in 6, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">was Mets in 4<\/span> (ouch, not even close)<\/li>\n<li>ALCS: (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11342\">link to my prediction post<\/a>): Predicted Toronto in 6, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">actually was KC in 6<\/span> (wrong again).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, neither LCS went as I thought it would and we have the #1 media market in the post-season for the first time since 2009.<\/p>\n<p>Likely Pitching Matchups for Mets-Royals:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mets-Royals:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Game 1: Harvey vs Volquez<\/li>\n<li>Game 2: deGrom vs Ventura<\/li>\n<li>Game 3: Cueto vs Snydergaard<\/li>\n<li>Game 4: Young vs Matz<\/li>\n<li>Game 5: likely Volquez vs Harvey again<\/li>\n<li>Game 6: likely deGrom vs Ventura again<\/li>\n<li>Game 7: likely Snydergaard vs Cueto again<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Discussion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Mets, by virtue of their quite unexpected sweep, get to reset their rotation and opt (somewhat surprisingly) to lead with <strong>Matt Harvey<\/strong> instead of <strong>Jacob deGrom<\/strong>.\u00a0 So be it; both guys likely throw twice in the series anyway, so perhaps its a case of getting Harvey a home start in game 5 where he&#8217;s likely to be unbeatable.\u00a0 The Royals had to burn <strong>Yordano Ventura<\/strong> in the LCS game 6; he won&#8217;t be available until WS game 2, so they seem set to lead off with their 2nd most effective guy <strong>Edinson Volquez<\/strong> in the opener.<\/p>\n<p>Man for man, the Mets seem to have an overwhelming pitching advantage here.\u00a0 Their 1-2-3 starters each are significant throwers, Volquez doesn&#8217;t normally scare anyone, and <strong>Johnny Cueto<\/strong> had a 36.00 ERA in the LCS.\u00a0 But the Royals are formidable at the plate: 2nd in the league in BA (by just a point behind the leader), Fewest in the league, by a fairly significant margin, in percentage of strikeouts.\u00a0 Lastly, as a team they&#8217;re the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=7&amp;season=2015&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2015&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0\">3rd best squad in the game<\/a> at hitting fastballs.\u00a0 So strength meets strength here.<\/p>\n<p>I can see the Royals working the Mets pitchers, who are all young and may be at the tail end of their effectiveness after a season where almost all of them are pitching far longer than they thought.\u00a0 If the Royals get into the Mets bullpen &#8230; are they in trouble?\u00a0 Meanwhile, the Royals&#8217; starters don&#8217;t exactly inspire confidence necessarily, but the Royals bullpen is 2nd to none and with so many off-days there&#8217;s no reason to think that their main bullpen arms can&#8217;t throw in practically every game.\u00a0\u00a0 With the possible exception of one game in NY, I can see the likes of <strong>Kelvin Herrera<\/strong>, <strong>Wade Davis<\/strong> and <strong>Luke Hochevar<\/strong> throwing each night and shutting down the late innings.\u00a0 This could make the difference if this team can get a lead and hold on to it in a close game.<\/p>\n<p>Side note: how funny is baseball; Wade Davis was an awful starter &#8230; 5.32 ERA for KC in 24 starts in 2013.\u00a0 and in 2 years out of the pen he&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/d\/daviswa01.shtml\">17-3 with a 0.97 ERA across 139 IP<\/a>!!\u00a0 Read that statline again; it wasn&#8217;t a typo.\u00a0 187\/43 K\/BB in 139 IP over the last two years as a 7th\/8th inning guy.\u00a0 Hochevar was the same thing: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/hochelu01.shtml\">5.73 ERA as a starter in 2012, then a 1.92 ERA<\/a> when he got moved to the pen in 2013.\u00a0 They also have the effective <strong>Ryan Madsen<\/strong> (former Phillie) out there, and all of this bullpen success is in spite of losing perhaps their *best* arm in closer <strong>Greg Holland<\/strong> to injury earlier this year. \u00a0Maybe there&#8217;s a lesson to be learned for our Nats in terms of bullpen construction and what it can do for you.<\/p>\n<p>Can the Mets keep up their momentum after such a long layoff?\u00a0 Will the rest help or hurt their young arms? (probably help frankly).<\/p>\n<p>I have a feeling this is the Royal&#8217;s year.\u00a0 I&#8217;m not sure how they do it, but I think the home field advantage and the fact that they&#8217;ve &#8220;been there before&#8221; gives them a bit of an advantage.\u00a0 The Mets&#8217; arms are not infallible; they&#8217;ll give up runs.\u00a0 Is <strong>Daniel Murphy<\/strong> still the second coming of <strong>Babe Ruth<\/strong>?\u00a0 Can <strong>Lucas Duda<\/strong> get hot again (when he&#8217;s on fire, he&#8217;s the best hitter in the league, as my fantasy team this year could attest).<\/p>\n<p>Prediction; <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>I like Kansas City in 7<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 This goes against my better judgement, because I always favor the arms, but when the bats can neutralize the arms &#8230; go with the team that seems like its destined to win.<\/p>\n<p>PS: in case you were not aware of the local connection &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Dayton_Moore\">Kansas City&#8217;s GM <strong>Dayton Moore<\/strong><\/a> was involved with the baseball program at George Mason University, serving as an assistant coach from 1990-1994, right around the same time as some of my baseball colleagues were there (my former teammates who played at Mason would have graduated in the 92-94 range).\u00a0 Now as GM in KC, he&#8217;s hired former local player <strong>Lonnie Goldberg<\/strong> as his scouting director; we mentioned Goldberg in this space back in Jan 2013 when talking about notable local pro players in my big &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5626\">All-Virginia team<\/a>&#8221; post, and Goldberg was on those Mason teams in the early 1990s with my former HS teammate <strong>Billy Emerson<\/strong> (now the AD at Paul VI in Fairfax).\u00a0 Small world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Post season predictions so far: Wild Card Games: (link to my prediction post): got both Houston and Cubs WC wins right. NLDS: (link to my prediction post):\u00a0 Got LA in 5 games wrong, got Cubs in 4 exactly right ALDS: (link to my prediction post): Got Toronto in 4 correct, got KC in 5 exactly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2036],"tags":[2814,153,1372,349,1859,1306,589,814,2653,890,2951,1362,1738,2515,1666,2326,2952,240,2232],"class_list":["post-11425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-post-season","tag-andrew-stevenson","tag-babe-ruth","tag-billy-emerson","tag-chris-young","tag-daniel-murphy","tag-dayton-moore","tag-edinson-volquez","tag-greg-holland","tag-jacob-degrom","tag-johnny-cueto","tag-kelvin-herrera","tag-lonnie-goldberg","tag-lucas-duda","tag-luke-hochevar","tag-matt-harvey","tag-noah-snydergaard","tag-ryan-madsen","tag-wade-davis","tag-yordano-ventura"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11425","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11425"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11425\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11467,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11425\/revisions\/11467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}