{"id":11453,"date":"2015-11-02T15:27:24","date_gmt":"2015-11-02T20:27:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11453"},"modified":"2015-11-02T15:27:24","modified_gmt":"2015-11-02T20:27:24","slug":"2015-season-statistical-review-of-the-2011-draft-class","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11453","title":{"rendered":"2015 Season Statistical review of the 2011 Draft Class"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1631\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/rendonanthony_Brett-Coomer-houstonchronicle.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1631\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1631\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/rendonanthony_Brett-Coomer-houstonchronicle.com_-300x187.jpg\" alt=\"Rendon swinging away in college. Photo: Brett Coomer\/Houston Chronicle via chron.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/rendonanthony_Brett-Coomer-houstonchronicle.com_-300x187.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/rendonanthony_Brett-Coomer-houstonchronicle.com_.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1631\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rendon swinging away in college. Photo: Brett Coomer\/Houston Chronicle via chron.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The next (and last) in a series: previously we reviewed the 2015 season stats for the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11245\">2015 draft class<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11384\">2014 draft class<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11404\">2013 draft class<\/a> and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11432\">2012 draft class<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Web links to use while reading:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Stats are pulled from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/search\/?query=austin+voth\">milb.com<\/a>\u00a0and\/or\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/\">fangraphs.com<\/a>; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/events\/draft\/y2015\/drafttracker.jsp\">MLB Draft Tracker <\/a>(which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc\/edit?hl=en#gid=31\">Big Board<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1pZpAxtq3K6SxrHb6YSe3_NF6Cay0MkeYwW1Dc2_KHrE\/edit?hl=en#gid=0\">Draft Tracker<\/a> are the goto resources for prospects for any Nats fan.<\/li>\n<li>Baseball-reference.com&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/draft\/?query_type=franch_year&amp;team_ID=WSN&amp;year_ID=2011&amp;draft_type=junreg&amp;\">draft database for the Nats 2011 class<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>My <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1AF0yeI9ZaLokqjJ6H4tB4Oz86YFkhvFoqQaPM3wYjGU\/edit?usp=sharing\">working XLS in Google for all this data<\/a> (cut-n-pasted at the bottom).<\/li>\n<li>TheBaseballCube.com for really obscure stats for players.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Note: in previous posts we&#8217;ve used trending up, steady and down for prospect growth analysis.\u00a0 For me, if a guy has debuted in the majors then he&#8217;s automatically a &#8220;success&#8221; in terms of prospect development and is an automatic &#8220;trending up&#8221; green.\u00a0 We&#8217;ll add in &#8220;matriculated&#8221; as a category.\u00a0 However, doing this analysis I&#8217;m finding myself listing guys as &#8220;trending down&#8221; even if they&#8217;ve advanced well in the system but have seemingly peaked and\/or failed to reach their potential.\u00a0 I&#8217;ll list them as &#8220;peaked&#8221; instead of trending down as a result.\u00a0 Might be unfair, but when looking at guys who in some cases are entering their 6th pro season I think it is fair to pass some final judgement on their careers at this point.<\/p>\n<p>It is also worth noting that the 2011 draft was the last of its kind before new CBA rules went into effect.\u00a0 So what you see in 2011 isn&#8217;t what we see now.\u00a0 Specifically:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>There used to be 50 rounds; after this draft it went down to 40.\u00a0 And looking at the rounds 40-50 picks, you can understand why there was little need for those additional 10 rounds.<\/li>\n<li>There used to be no caps on bonus spending; after this draft, no more massive bonus spending to sign HS prep kids in lower rounds to 1st round money.<\/li>\n<li>And because of the new caps and the tracking of limits up to the 10th round, we now see teams often making &#8220;throw away&#8221; college senior signs in the 6th-10th picks to save on bonus dollars to go over-slot for high profile picks or later draft steals.\u00a0 In 2011, these same guys were getting drafted in the 20th-30th round range instead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Without further ado:<\/p>\n<p>Round 1: (#6 overall)<strong> Anthony Rendon<\/strong>, 3B Coll Jr from Rice: slashed just\u00a0.264\/.344\/.363in an injury plagued 2015 season after posting a 6.6 bWAR season in 2014.\u00a0 While clearly he remains an injury risk, the potential he shows remains as one of the top players in the league.\u00a0 Hopefully 2016 will see him returned to his natural position at third base, his natural batting position as 2nd in the lineup, and a return to form generally.\u00a0 From a prospect development perspective, he&#8217;s more than reached his goal and you have to think that some of the teams that passed on him on draft day wish they had a do over.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #339966;\">Matriculated to Majors.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 1 (#23 overall): <strong>Alex Meyer<\/strong>, RHP Coll Jr from Kentucky: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">traded straight up for<\/span> <strong>Denard Span<\/strong> in Nov 2012.\u00a0 Since, the Twins have brought him along slowly, having him repeat AAA and as of the end of 2015 he has just 2 2\/3rds major league innings.\u00a0 What happened?\u00a0 Perhaps he&#8217;s finally getting banished to the bullpen like most development types thought always would happen.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #339966;\">Matriculated to Majors.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 1-S (#34): <strong>Brian Goodwin<\/strong>, OF Juco from Miami Dade CC South: slashed .226\/.290\/.340 for Harrisburg in 2015, which represented a demotion from his 2014 assignment in AAA.\u00a0 He&#8217;s on the 40-man roster (having been placed there to protect him against Rule-5), but may not be there for long.\u00a0 Goodwin skipped High-A during that period when the Nats ownership was penalizing Potomac owners for the state of their field, and you have to wonder if it hurt his development.\u00a0 He&#8217;s playing winter ball this off-season, perhaps in hopes of putting his name back in the mix in this organization.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Peaked at AA\/AAA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 2: Pick given to Philadelphia as compensation for <strong>Jayson Werth<\/strong> signing.\u00a0 The <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/events\/draft\/y2011\/drafttracker.jsp?p=0&amp;s=30&amp;sc=pick_number&amp;so=ascending&amp;st=number&amp;ft=RD&amp;fv=3\">Phillies used the pick<\/a> to take a HS SS out of Florida named <strong>Roman Quinn<\/strong>.\u00a0 He&#8217;s progressed nicely, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.cgi?id=quinn-000rom\">slashing .306\/.356\/.435<\/a> this year in AA as a 22-yr old, albeit in limited action for the 4th successive year (injuries?).\u00a0 Its impossible to know what the Nats would have done here, had they still owned the pick, but drafting a prep SS seems unlikely.\u00a0 Then again, if they had this pick they might not have gone with the youngster Goodwin in the 1-S round.\u00a0 Who knows.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/w\/werthja01.shtml\">Werth has totaled 9.2 bWAR in his 5 seasons here<\/a>, which includes his -1.6 bWAR 2015 season dragging his totals down and nearly his whole 2nd season lost to injury.\u00a0 A good &#8220;trade&#8221; in terms of the player versus the draft pick for sure. Was it a good contract?\u00a0 Roughly 10 WAR for his $18M*5 =$90M, so about $9M\/war.\u00a0 Not so good.\u00a0 We&#8217;re still not even to estimates above $7M\/WAR and this contract was signed 5 years ago.\u00a0 An argument for another time.<\/p>\n<p>Round 3: <strong>Matthew Purke<\/strong>, LHP draft eligible sophomore from TCU: 3-6, 4.36 ERA with 43\/17 K\/BB across 64 IP (20 apps, 15 starts).\u00a0 3.51\/3.76 FIP in High-A\/AA stints.\u00a0 White a whirlwind season for Purke; he was released in Nov 2014 and I <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9993\">thought the team had cut ties<\/a>.\u00a0 A few days later, they signed him as MLFA in a clearly pre-arranged deal to get him off the 40-man (he was one of the last of a now-banned practice; 40-man draft day deals).\u00a0\u00a0 He jumped two levels in 2015 (from LowA through HighA to AA), ending the year as Harrisburg&#8217;s spot-starter\/swing man and struggling there for the 2nd year in a row (6.35 ERA) &#8230; but perhaps not as bad as we think by virtue of the huge delta between his ERA and his FIP.\u00a0 More concerning is his K rate; he just doesn&#8217;t mow &#8217;em down like he used to.\u00a0 What&#8217;s his projection at this point?\u00a0 Loogy?\u00a0 Long-man?\u00a0 I don&#8217;t know.\u00a0 I&#8217;m not confident that he&#8217;ll ever pan out though, so I&#8217;ll say generally <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Peaked at AA<span style=\"color: #000000;\">, since it wouldn&#8217;t surprise me at all to see him getting lit up again in AA next\u00a0 year and just getting released.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 4: <strong>Kylin Turnbull<\/strong>, LHP juco from Santa Barbara CC: zero IP in 2015; on the Potomac D\/L the entire year.\u00a0 Had a relatively middling 2014 in High-A (3-3, 4.41 ERA) then never got out of the gate for 2015.\u00a0 He was not well heralded at the time of the draft and hasn&#8217;t really done much to impress in parts of four minor league seasons (career numbers: 15-17 with 4.53 ERA).\u00a0 It wouldn&#8217;t surprise me to see him get cut at the end of 2016 spring training if he can&#8217;t make the Potomac bullpen.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Peaked at High-A.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 5: <strong>Matt Skole<\/strong>, 3B Coll Jr. from Georgia Tech: slashed .234\/.340\/.417 between AA and AAA this year, 127\/82 K\/BB in 465 ABs.\u00a0 20 homers.\u00a0 Skole is now two full seasons removed from the awful 2013 injury that has more or less derailed his career.\u00a0 Remember; it wasn&#8217;t that long ago that Skole was the Nats minor league player of the year (2012) and when he was routinely listed as the 3rd or 4th best prospect in the system.\u00a0 Now he&#8217;s 26 in AAA, two years passed over in Rule 5 drafting and seemingly set to reach his 6-year MLFA barrier without really pressing for a MLB roster spot.\u00a0 Can you see the Nats calling him up in 2016?\u00a0 He&#8217;s limited to 3B on a team that (as it stands) has at least three or four of them on the MLB roster.\u00a0 I think he may have reached his peak unless he blows up Syracuse early next year.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Peaked at AAA<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Round 6: <strong>Taylor Hill<\/strong>, RHP Coll Sr from Vanderbilt.\u00a0 3-10 with a 5.23 ERA for Syracuse, 70\/29 K\/BB in 118 IP.\u00a0 3.85 FIP.\u00a0 Also gave the Nats 12 IP across 6 appearances in early June when they had a bullpen crunch.\u00a0 His FIP shows that his ERA for Syracuse was misleading.\u00a0 I think we know what we have in Hill at this point; softer tossing 4-A guy who can throw innings and serve as a decent utility\/spare part arm for the team.\u00a0 If you put all our SPs into one big depth chart, i&#8217;d probably put Hill somewhere around 10th in pecking order, meaning the odds of him really getting a shot at starting in the majors seems pretty slim.\u00a0 I think he likely sticks in his existing insurance role for at least one or two more seasons before he faces arbitration, where he&#8217;ll likely get DFA&#8217;d and see his career end.\u00a0 That&#8217;s no judgement on his career; as a senior sign for limited money, the fact that he made it out of short-season ball was a success, let alone getting 40-man placement and MLB innings.\u00a0 A great job of drafting and development.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #339966;\">Matriculated to Majors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 7: <strong>Brian Dupra<\/strong>, RHP Coll Sr from Notre Dame: 3-2, 3.61 ERA between AA and High-A, 43\/20 in 52 relief IP.\u00a0\u00a0 Dupra started in AA, got bounced around and demoted to Potomac in Mid-June where he stayed the rest of the season as a long-man.\u00a0 To me, a look at his career shows a guy who can&#8217;t compete outside of A-Ball and who is set to be 27 next spring without any success at AA or higher.\u00a0 I can&#8217;t see how he&#8217;s long for the organization with the number of college arms drafted recently.\u00a0 Look for a spring release.\u00a0 Still an impressive career for a guy in the same boat as Hill; senior sign, limited bonus money, little expectations.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Peaked at High-A<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Round 8: <strong>Gregory Holt<\/strong>, RHP Coll Sr from UNC: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Released 3\/20\/14<\/span> somewhat surprisingly after a decent season in Potomac.<\/p>\n<p>Round 9: <strong>Dixon Anderson<\/strong>, RHP Coll Jr. from UC-Berkeley: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Retired 5\/14\/14<\/span> after failing to get promoted and repeating Low-A for the third year.<\/p>\n<p>Round 10: <strong>Manny Rodriguez<\/strong>, RHP Coll Sr. from Barry (FL): He was 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA for Potomac this year and was <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released 9\/28\/15<\/span> at season&#8217;s end.\u00a0 It is probably safe to say that the team feels like Rodriguez&#8217; role is easily filled by a younger draftee from more recent classes.<\/p>\n<p>Round 11: <strong>Caleb Ramsey<\/strong>, OF Coll Sr from U of Houston: slashed .287\/.354\/.343 with 77\/45 K\/BB in 429 ABs between AA and AAA.\u00a0 2 homers, 13Sbs.\u00a0 Ramsey has quietly climbed the ladder for this team for years, but now reaches a cross roads; he doesn&#8217;t hit for enough power to justify his corner outfield spot and the Nats really don&#8217;t have any room for him in their MLB outfield.\u00a0 I can&#8217;t see him making a 40-man roster and is clearly AAA org guy material at this point.\u00a0 Look for him to play out the string in 2016 and get let go as a 6-year MLFA.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Peaked at AAA<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Round 12: <strong>Blake Monar<\/strong>, LHP Coll Jr from Indiana: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released 3\/20\/13<\/span> somewhat surprisingly after a decent Short-A season.<\/p>\n<p>Round 13: <strong>Casey Kalenkosky<\/strong> 1B Coll Jr From Texas State: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, returned to Texas State for senior season.\u00a0 Drafted in the 30th round in 2012 by Atlanta, lasted two years and released\/retired.<\/p>\n<p>Round 14: <strong>Cody Stubbs<\/strong>: LF Juco from Walters State CC (TN): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, transferred to UNC and was drafted in the 8th round of 2013 by Kansas City.\u00a0 Hit .283 this year in HighA.<\/p>\n<p>Round 15: <strong>Zachary Houchins<\/strong>, SS Juco from Louisberg College (NC): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, transferred to ECU, drafted in the 13th round of 2014 by Los Angeles Angels.\u00a0 hit .253 in LowA this year.<\/p>\n<p>Round 16: <strong>Deion Williams<\/strong>, SS from Redan HS (GA): 1-2, 5.46 ERA with 22\/18 K\/BB in 29.2 relief innings with Hagerstown.\u00a0 Williams was drafted as a SS but converted to the mound after a year or so.\u00a0 Since then, he&#8217;s struggled, somehow making it onto the full-season Hagerstown roster in June after sitting in XST for two months.\u00a0 There, he continued not to impress; his career ERA is now 6.12 across 103IP and the three lower levels of the minors.\u00a0 Hard to see how he&#8217;s even still on a roster at this point.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Trending Down.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 17: <strong>Esteban Guzman<\/strong>, RHP Coll Jr from San Jose State University (My parents&#8217; alma mater!): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, returned to SJSU for his senior year and was never drafted again and, as far as I can tell, never played professionally.\u00a0 Odd.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thebaseballcube.com\/players\/profile.asp?P=esteban-guzman\">He did regress in his Sr. season<\/a>, going from a 3.33 ERA to a 4.71 ERA, but to go from a 17th round pick to never playing again smells like an injury.<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/events\/afl\/club.jsp?team_id=527\">http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/events\/afl\/club.jsp?team_id=527<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Round 18: <strong>Nick Lee<\/strong>, LHP Juco from Weatherford (TX): 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA between HighA and AA, 57\/33 K\/BB in 52 IP across 40 games.\u00a0 Lee tried to make it as a starter for a while, but now is having good success as a bullpen guy.\u00a0 He&#8217;s got a good BAA, but too many walks right now.\u00a0 But he&#8217;s holding on strong and could make a push up the system ala <strong>Matt Grace<\/strong> in 2016.\u00a0 The Nats see this as well and sent Lee to the Arizona Fall League this year. <span style=\"color: #339966;\">Trending Up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 19: <strong>Hawtin Buchannan<\/strong>, RHP from Biloxi (Miss.) HS; <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, honored commitment to Ole Mis\/Mississippi.\u00a0 Drafted in the 20th round in 2014 by Seattle and put up a 4.14 ERA in low-A in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Round 20: <strong>Josh Laxer<\/strong>, RHP\u00a0 from Madison (Miss.) Central HS: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, also honored commitment to Ole Mis\/Mississippi.\u00a0\u00a0 Boy the guys at Ole Miss would have been mad at Mike Rizzo from this draft had things gone differently.\u00a0\u00a0 Laxer pitched well in Short-A in 2014 but missed all of 2015 with an injury.<\/p>\n<p>Round 21: <strong>Todd Simko<\/strong>, LHP Coll Jr.\u00a0 from Texas A&amp;M-Corpus Christi: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">retired 7\/12\/13<\/span> after not making the Hagerstown squad and struggling in Short-A.<\/p>\n<p>Round 22: <strong>Travis Henke<\/strong> RHP\u00a0 Coll Sr from Arkansas-Little Rock: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released on 1\/6\/14<\/span> after putting up a 5.79 season pitching out of Potomac&#8217;s bullpen all 2013.<\/p>\n<p>Round 23: <strong>Khayyan Norfork<\/strong> 2B Coll Sr from Tennessee: slashed .276\/.336\/.364 in a full season in Potomac, with 2\u00a0 homers, 10 SBs and a 60\/27 K\/BB ratio in 341 ABs. Ended the\u00a0 year with a roster-filling callup to AA.\u00a0 Norfork&#8217;s third straight year in High-A, each time showing the same skill set; some speed, little power, decent bat but OPS figures in the .680-.700 range.\u00a0 He may stick around for another season to reach MLFA but i&#8217;m not sure in what role; perhaps as AA utility guy.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Peaked at High-A\/AA<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Round 24: <strong>Kyle Ottoson<\/strong> LHP Coll Jr from Arizona State: did not sign, returned for senior season and was drafted by San Diego in the 34th round in 2012.\u00a0 Pitched one season of short-A ball and was released.<\/p>\n<p>Round 25: <strong>Erick Fernandez\u00a0<\/strong> C Coll Sr from Georgetown: stuck around in an extreme backup mode (19 total games across three seasons), then <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released on 7\/23\/13<\/span> when the Short-A squads started to fill up after the 2013 draft.\u00a0 Signed as a MLFA with Pittsburgh in the 2014 off-season but couldn&#8217;t make a squad.\u00a0 Cut loose at the end of 2014&#8217;s spring training and out of baseball.<\/p>\n<p>Round 26: <strong>Shawn Pleffner<\/strong> OF Coll Jr from Univ. of Tampa: slashed .269\/.342\/.355 with 66\/41 K\/BB in 394 ABs with Harrisburg.\u00a0 3 homers. Another guy with local ties (born in DC), Pleffner has hung around by virtue of his decent bat (career .294 hitter) even despite the power (just 12 career homers at 1B).\u00a0 Will he move up the chain one more year?\u00a0 Clearly he&#8217;s blocked at the MLB level, and (honestly) 1B spots in AAA may be filled with the kind of spare part slugger that the Nats may be seeking as a bench option to replace <strong>Tyler Moore<\/strong>, so Pleffner may lose out on a roster spot by getting squeezed from both sides.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Peaked at AA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 27: <strong>Bobby Lucas<\/strong> LHP Coll Sr. from George Washington: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released sometime in 2013<\/span> after struggling in LowA in 2012.\u00a0 The third straight pick with local ties was always a longshot being a senior sign from a small baseball program.<\/p>\n<p>Round 28: <strong>Kenneth Ferrer<\/strong> RHP Coll Sr. from Elon University: got hammered in 7 GCL innings after getting drafted and was either <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released or retired prior to the 2012 season<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Round 29: <strong>Sean Cotten<\/strong> C Coll Sr. Tusculum College: did not sign, or if he did he never appeared or played.\u00a0 Odd.\u00a0 He had a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thebaseballcube.com\/players\/profile.asp?P=sean-cotten\">nice senior season<\/a> in school and was a college senior; maybe he just decided to hang &#8217;em up before even trying.<\/p>\n<p>Round 30: <strong>Bryan Harper<\/strong> LHP Coll Jr from South Carolina:2-2, 2.96 ERA 34\/19 K\/BB over 45 relief innings between AA and AAA.\u00a0 The &#8220;make the super star happy by drafting his brother&#8221; pick has turned out to be a half way decent loogy, and rightfully earned his way all the way to AAA this year.\u00a0 He needs to get his walks down but they&#8217;re not too bad.\u00a0 He&#8217;s in a position to put his name in the hat in case our cache of lefty relievers falters in 2016.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #339966;\">Trending up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 31: <strong>Josh Tobias <\/strong>SS\u00a0 from Southeast Guilford HS (NC); <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, honored his commitment to Florida where he played four years and was drafted in the 20th round of 2015 by Philadelphia.\u00a0 He hit .321 in Short-A for them so perhaps he sticks around for a bit.<\/p>\n<p>Round 32: <strong>Billy Burns<\/strong> OF Coll Jr. from Mercer Univ. (GA): after 3 impressive seasons in our system, the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Nats traded Burns<\/span> straight up for <strong>Jerry Blevins<\/strong> in Dec of 2013.\u00a0 Burns debuted for Oakland in late 2014 and played a full season for Oakland in 2015, starting in CF and batting .294 with people talking about getting him Rookie of the Year votes down ballot.\u00a0 Burns for Blevins, who then turned in to den Dekker &#8230; perhaps the Nats didn&#8217;t really get value for the Burns pick, but also likely never would have realized who they had on their hands thanks to the full OF and names in front of him on the Nats OF prospect pecking order.<\/p>\n<p>Round 33: <strong>Trey Karlen<\/strong> 2B Coll Sr from Univ. of Tennessee-Martin: Karlen struggled in the GCL in 2011, never appeared in 2012 and was <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released on 6\/17\/13<\/span> when the new class of draftees showed up and there was no longer room for him on the short-season squads.<\/p>\n<p>Round 34: <strong>Calvin Drummond<\/strong> RHP Coll Jr. Univ. of San Diego (CA): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, returned to U San Diego for his senior year.\u00a0\u00a0 Looking up Drummond&#8217;s draft and collegiate history is interesting.\u00a0 Per his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thebaseballcube.com\/players\/profile.asp?P=Calvin-Drummond\">baseballcube<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.cgi?id=drummo002cal\">baseball-reference<\/a> pages, Drummond was drafted no less than four times; once out of HS, once as a draft-eligible sophomore (when the Nats drafted him in 2011), then again as a junior and again as a senior.\u00a0 But the odd part is his history: he went to Orange Coast Juco, then transferred to San Diego where he red-shirted, pitched two decent years as a starter, then transferred again to the baseball powerhouse Arizona Christian University, where he pitched his senior year and was drafted in the 6th round by Detroit.\u00a0 He&#8217;s had minor league success, with more than a K\/inning and a career 2.84 ERA while working his way to AA this season.\u00a0 Would love to hear his story.<\/p>\n<p>Round 35: <strong>Alex Kreis<\/strong> RHP\u00a0 Coll Sr Jamestown College (ND): Struggled in the bullpen for Hagerstown in 2012 and never made it to a 2013 roster, either getting <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released or retired<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Round 36: <strong>Ben Hawkins<\/strong> LHP Coll Jr from Univ. of West Florida: Made the 2013 Potomac bullpen, got shelled, went back to XST after a month and was <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released a month later<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Round 37: <strong>Derrick Bleeker<\/strong> RHP Juco frm Howard College (TX): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, transferred to the U of Arkansas and was drafted in the same 37th round the following year by Baltimore.\u00a0 He struggled for Baltimore&#8217;s low-A affiliate in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Round 38: <strong>Brett Mooneyham<\/strong> LHP Coll Jr from Stanford Univ. (CA): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, stayed at Stanford for his Senior year and then the Nats picked him in the 3rd round of 2012.\u00a0 Did Mooneyham really improve his draft stock from a complete afterthought in 2011 to a 3rd round pick?<\/p>\n<p>Round 39: <strong>Peter Verdin <\/strong>OF, Coll Jr from Univ. of Georgia: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, returned to U Georgia for his senior year.\u00a0 Was undrafted and went unsigned after his senior season.\u00a0 Smells like a &#8220;favor pick,&#8221; as he was a local kid: hails from Alexandria, went to Paul VI HS in Fairfax.<\/p>\n<p>Round 40: <strong>Stephen Collum <\/strong>OF from Cartersville HS (GA); <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, presumably (per baseballcube) went to Cleveland State Community College but has no college stats and was never again drafted.<\/p>\n<p>Round 41: <strong>Bryce Ortega <\/strong>3B Coll Sr. from Univ. of Arizona: had a decent season in 2012 for Hagerstown then either was <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released or retired<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Round 42: <strong>David Kerian<\/strong> SS from Bishop Heelan HS (IA): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, honored his commitment to U of Illinois.\u00a0 Signed by the Nats as a 9th round senior sign in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Round 43: <strong>Mitchell Morales <\/strong>SS from Wellington Community HS; <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, went to Florida Atlantic University and was drafted 3 years later in 2014 by San Diego in the 29th round.\u00a0 Struggled in lower A leagues in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Round 44: <strong>Matt Snyder<\/strong> 1B Coll Jr Univ. of Mississippi: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, returned to Ole Miss for his senior year and was a 10th round pick the following year by New York Yankees.\u00a0 Hit .371 for High-A this year to push his way to AA.<\/p>\n<p>Round 45: <strong>Richie Mirowski <\/strong>RHP Coll Sr. from Oklahoma Baptist Univ: had a fantastic 2013 in Potomac, struggled making the jump to AA in 2014 and was <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released on 3\/19\/15<\/span> when it looked like he wasn&#8217;t going to make the AA team for this year.\u00a0 Still, a great result for a 45th round draftee.<\/p>\n<p>Round 46: <strong>Tyler Thompson<\/strong> OF Coll JR from Univ. of Florida: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, returned to Florida for his senior year.\u00a0 Got hurt (presumably) and was not drafted after 2012 and never played professionally.<\/p>\n<p>Round 47: <strong>Timothy Montgomery<\/strong> LHP from Rockmart HS (GA): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign, <span style=\"color: #000000;\">took a year off, played one year at Berry College and was out of the game.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Round 48: <strong>Michael Bisenius<\/strong> OF Coll Jr from Wayne State College (NE): <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, returned to college for his senior year, never again drafted.\u00a0 Played on year with the Sioux City Explorers in the American Association.<\/p>\n<p>Round 49: <strong>Hunter Cole<\/strong> OF from Dorman HS (SC), <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">did not sign<\/span>, honored his commitment to the U of Georgia.\u00a0 26th round pick in 2014 by San Francisco.\u00a0 Hitting well so far in his career, finishing 2015 in AA with above an .800 OPS.<\/p>\n<p>Round 50: <strong>Anthony Nix OF <\/strong>Coll Sr from\u00a0 Univ. of California-Riverside: hit .215 in the GCL in 2012 and was <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">released in Jan 2013<\/span>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Trending Summary:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #339966;\">Trending Up<\/span>\/<span style=\"color: #339966;\">Matriculated (4): Rendon, Hill, Harper, Lee<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Trending Steady (0): nobody<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Trending Down\/Peaked (9): Goodwin, Purke, Turnbull, Skole, Dupra, Ramsey, Williams, Norfork, Pleffner<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Did Not Sign in 2011 (21): Kalenkosky, Stubbs, Houchins, Guzman, Buchanan, Laxer, Ottoson, Cotten, Tobias, Drummond, Bleeker, Mooneyham, Verdin, Collum, Kerian, Morales, Snyder, Thompson, Montgomery, Bisenius, Cole<\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Released\/Retired (15): Holt, Anderson, Rodriguez, Monar, Simko, Henke, Fernandez, Lucas, Ferrer, Karlen, Kreis, Hawkins, Ortega, Mirowski, Nix<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Traded (2): Meyer, Burns<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Executive Summary<\/p>\n<p>Well, now you know why we don&#8217;t need 50 rounds anymore.\u00a0 Of the original 51 total picks (three 1st rounders and a lost 2nd rounder total 51 total guys in this class), fully 21 didn&#8217;t even sign.\u00a0 That&#8217;s more than 40% of the draftees.\u00a0 So of the 29 guys who did sign, a slew remain active in the system, our 1st rounder (Rendon) has turned into a 6-win player (when healthy), we flipped two guys (Meyer, Burns) who are also MLB matriculated for other MLB players of use, and we have a couple more guys who may yet get chances (Harper, Hill, Lee).\u00a0 That&#8217;s not a bad return from a draft class, especially considering how many of the 20th+ rounders ended up being successful.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The next (and last) in a series: previously we reviewed the 2015 season stats for the 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class, 2013 draft class and the 2012 draft class. Web links to use while reading: Stats are pulled from\u00a0milb.com\u00a0and\/or\u00a0fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats The MLB [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4],"tags":[929,262,2969,185,926,2124,201,928,856,195,257,945,2963,2561,1726,2954,2955,2828,1874,482,1727,923,2132,1721,925,1722,2968,115,2123,1723,2960,1725,2957,1724,951,193,2751,733,2965,166,2967,2964,1873,2961,941,2953,2959,2958,2962,197,1729,930,932,235,2966,2956],"class_list":["post-11453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","category-minorspitching","tag-alex-kreis","tag-alex-meyer","tag-anthony-nix","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-ben-hawkins","tag-billy-burns","tag-blake-monar","tag-bobby-lucas","tag-brett-mooneyham","tag-brian-dupra","tag-brian-goodwin","tag-bryan-harper","tag-bryce-ortega","tag-caleb-ramsey","tag-calvin-drummond","tag-casey-kalenkosky","tag-cody-stubbs","tag-david-kerian","tag-deion-williams","tag-denard-span","tag-derrick-bleeker","tag-dixon-anderson","tag-erick-fernandez","tag-esteban-guzman","tag-gregory-holt","tag-hawtin-buchannan","tag-hunter-cole","tag-jayson-werth","tag-jerry-blevins","tag-josh-laxer","tag-josh-tobias","tag-kenneth-ferrer","tag-khayyan-norfork","tag-kyle-ottoson","tag-kylin-turnbull","tag-manny-rodriguez","tag-matt-den-dekker","tag-matt-skole","tag-matt-snyder","tag-matthew-purke","tag-michael-bisenius","tag-mitchell-morales","tag-nick-lee","tag-peter-verdin","tag-richie-mirowski","tag-roman-quinn","tag-sean-cotten","tag-shawn-pleffner","tag-stephen-collum","tag-taylor-hill","tag-timothy-montgomery","tag-todd-simko","tag-travis-henke","tag-tyler-moore","tag-tyler-thompson","tag-zachary-houchins"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11453"}],"version-history":[{"count":24,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11453\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11506,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11453\/revisions\/11506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}