{"id":11520,"date":"2015-11-09T11:11:27","date_gmt":"2015-11-09T16:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11520"},"modified":"2015-11-09T11:11:27","modified_gmt":"2015-11-09T16:11:27","slug":"qualifying-offer-analysis-nats-and-leaguewide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11520","title":{"rendered":"Qualifying Offer analysis: Nats and Leaguewide"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Desmond<\/a>

Desmond gets a QO. Photo Drew Kinback\/Natsnq.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Qualifying Offer (QO) extension time has come and past, and a record 20 players<\/a> received the 15.8M one-year contract tender for 2016.<\/p>\n

The Nationals, as has been typical, went the conservative route<\/a> and only gave a QO to the two players they expect to reach significant, multi-year deals.\u00a0 Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> and Ian Desmond<\/strong>.\u00a0 They opted not to extend offers to their other 7 free agents, nor to the two guys who a\u00a0 year ago you would have thought to be locks to get one (Doug Fister<\/strong> and Denard Span<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

(coincidentally: am I the only one who thinks that the Nats actually have 9 free agents on their end-of-year 40-man roster?\u00a0\u00a0 Zimmermann, Desmond, Span, Fister, Uggla, McLouth, Janssen, Thornton and Johnson.\u00a0 Why is it that all the other stories I read only list the first 8?\u00a0 Is Reed Johnson<\/strong> actually not a FA?\u00a0 Look at the Nats XLS on Cots<\/a>‘; Johnson is absolutely listed as a FA, as are 6 others, plus the two with options that we’ve already declined.\u00a0 Am I wrong?)<\/p>\n

Anyway.\u00a0 I’m on record as saying that the Nats should have extended 3 QOs<\/a> to include Span.\u00a0 Yet not for the first time, the team has opted not to offer a QO to a guy who clearly would have declined it.\u00a0 And this will be the third time they have made a crucial mistake as an organization and gave away a high draft pick needlessly.\u00a0 Edwin Jackson<\/strong> was always going to sign a multi-year deal and the Nats inexplicably failed to give him one.\u00a0 Same with Adam LaRoche<\/strong>, who clearly still had a market for his services and would have garnered another pick.<\/p>\n

I’m not sure exactly what Scott Boras<\/strong> seems to “have” on the Lerners … but not for the first time they’ve cut him a break and done him and his clients an inexplicable favor.\u00a0 So, what exactly do the Nats get out of this?\u00a0 Span should send the team management a fruit basket for not destroying his FA market this coming off-season.\u00a0 I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Span didn’t hire Scott Boras so that he could hand over a commission check on a gift of a $15.8M one year deal.\u00a0 Span was never going to accept that QO.\u00a0 Just dumb.\u00a0 But hey, it isn’t exactly the first dumb thing this front office\/ownership group has done this off\u00a0<\/strong>season…<\/p>\n

So, of the 20 players who did get a QO … the annual question remains.\u00a0 Will someone actually take it this year?\u00a0 Just as a reminder, here’s the entire list of QO-offered players<\/a> since the system began, with their eventual contract offer and a judgement of whether or not the QO “hurt” their next contract.\u00a0 Eight in 2012, 13 in 2013, and 12 after last season.\u00a0 That’s 33 total players and so far NOT ONE has signed the deal.\u00a0 I’m still not entirely convinced that there’s not a Player’s Union-wide conspiracy going on where they decline the QOs en masse because they don’t agree with it for some reason.\u00a0 Certainly it seems like the next CBA will eliminate it, since it has clearly done little except harm the market for FAs.<\/p>\n

Here’s a quick opinion on the 20 guys who got QOs and what I think may happen (AAV = Average Annual Value on their contract):<\/p>\n