{"id":11522,"date":"2015-11-23T10:07:47","date_gmt":"2015-11-23T15:07:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11522"},"modified":"2015-11-23T10:07:47","modified_gmt":"2015-11-23T15:07:47","slug":"gold-glove-awards-versus-defensive-metrics-review-for-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11522","title":{"rendered":"Gold Glove Awards versus Defensive Metrics Review for 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Andrelton<\/a>

Andrelton Simmons was completely hosed in the GG awards in 2015. Photo via espn.go.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Third year running for this post, looking at the announced winners of the Gold Gloves for 2015<\/a> and comparing them to the Fielding Bible winners for 2015<\/a> and the leaders of various defensive metrics available to us.\u00a0 For a glossary of the metrics, see the end of the post.<\/p>\n

Here’s 2014’s post<\/a> and 2013’s post<\/a> as well.<\/p>\n

Here’s a Google XLS link<\/a> to all of this data in one sheet.\u00a0 Also available in the Links section to the right.<\/p>\n

First off, here’s the announced winners of the 2015 Gold Glove awards<\/a> (bold is a repeat winner from last year, red is a questionable selection)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nAL GG Winner<\/td>\nNL GG Winner<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C<\/td>\nSalvator Perez, KC<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nYadier Molina, Stl<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1B<\/td>\nEric Hosmer, KC<\/strong><\/td>\nPaul Goldschmidt, Ari<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2B<\/td>\nJose Altuve, Hou<\/span><\/td>\nDee Gordon, Mia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SS<\/td>\nAlcides Escobar, KC<\/span><\/td>\nBrandon Crawford, SF<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3B<\/td>\nManny Machado, Bal<\/td>\nNolan Arenado, Col<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LF<\/td>\nYoenis Cespedes, Det\/NYM<\/td>\nStarling Marte, Pit<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CF<\/td>\nKevin Kiermaier, TB<\/td>\nA.J. Pollack, Ari<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RF<\/td>\nKole Calhoun, LAA<\/td>\nJason Heyward, Stl<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P<\/td>\nDallas Keuchel, HOU<\/td>\nZack Greinke, LAD<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

There are a couple of other “repeat” winners in here (as in guys who have won awards previously, just not in 2014), namely Manny Machado<\/strong> and Paul Goldschmidt<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

So, why are we calling Jose Altuve<\/strong>, Alcides Escobar, Yadier Molina <\/strong>and (especially) Brandon Crawford<\/strong> questionable selections?\u00a0\u00a0 Read on.\u00a0 We’ll pass some judgement at the end.<\/p>\n

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Here’s the Fielding Bible winners for 2015<\/a>: (bolded are repeat winners, green throughout are also GG winners)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nFielding Bible Winner<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C<\/td>\nBuster Posey, SF<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1B<\/td>\nPaul Goldschmidt, Ari (2nd award)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2B<\/td>\nIan Kinsler, Det<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SS<\/td>\nAndrelton Simmons, ATL (repeat, unanimous)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3B<\/td>\nNolan Arenado, Col<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LF<\/td>\nStarling Marte, Pit<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CF<\/td>\nKevin Kiermaier, TB (unanimous)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RF<\/td>\nJason Heyward, Stl (repeat, Unanimous)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P<\/td>\nDallas Keuchel, HOU (repeat)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Util<\/td>\nEnder Inciarte, KC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

So, Andrelton Simmons<\/strong> is a unanimous choice of a blue-ribbon panel yet doesn’t win the Gold Glove?\u00a0 Likewise, Kinsler<\/strong> and Posey<\/strong> are selected but neither got the Gold Glove.\u00a0 Simmons is probably the biggest mistake in the Gold Glove awards, but lets dig into the stats to see what happened.<\/p>\n

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Now lets start in with the defensive metrics.\u00a0 First: UZR\/150<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nAL UZR\/150<\/td>\nNL UZR\/150<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C<\/td>\nn\/a<\/td>\nn\/a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1B<\/td>\nMitch Moreland, Tex (6.4)<\/td>\nBrandon Belt, SF (10.7)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2B<\/td>\nIan Kinsler, Det (6.7)<\/td>\nDee Gordon, Mia (6.0)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SS<\/td>\nJ.J. Hardy, Bal (10.1)<\/td>\nAdeiny Hechavarria, Mia (17.7)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3B<\/td>\nAdrian Beltre, Tex (13.0)<\/td>\nMatt Duffy, SF (12.7)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LF<\/td>\nYoenis Cespedes (22.2)<\/span><\/td>\nStarling Marte, Pit (12.1)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CF<\/td>\nKevin Kiermaier, TB (42)<\/span><\/td>\nA.J. Pollack, Ari (14)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RF<\/td>\nKole Calhoun, LAA (12.1)<\/span><\/td>\nJason Heyward, Stl (22.3)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P<\/td>\nn\/a<\/td>\nn\/a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

We see some consistency here with the players named in the Gold Gloves and\/or the Fielding Bible awards.\u00a0\u00a0 7 of the 14 leaders here also won Gold Gloves, and 4 of the 10 leaders here won Fielding Bible awards.\u00a0 You’re going to see the same outfield names over and over; that’s how dominant this selection of outfielders were this year.\u00a0 Ian Kinsler<\/strong> represents one of the bigger snubs in the Gold Glove awards, as we’re about to see.<\/p>\n

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Here’s Defensive Runs Saved<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nAL DRS<\/td>\nNL DRS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1B<\/td>\nAdam Lind, Mil (5)<\/td>\nPaul Goldschmidt, Ari (18)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2B<\/td>\nIan Kinsler, Det (19)<\/td>\nDee Gordon, Mia (13)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SS<\/td>\nDidi Gregorius (5)<\/td>\nAndrelton Simmons, ATL (25)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3B<\/td>\nAdrian Beltre, Tex (18)<\/td>\nNolan Arenado, Col (18)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LF<\/td>\nYoenis Cespedes (15)<\/span><\/td>\nStarling Marte, Pit (24)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CF<\/td>\nKevin Kiermaier, TB (40.7)<\/span><\/td>\nBilly Hamilton, Cin (18.8)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RF<\/td>\nKole Calhoun, LAA (6)<\/span><\/td>\nJason Heyward, Stl (22)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P<\/td>\nDallas Keuchel, HOU (13)<\/span><\/td>\nZack Greinke, LAD (9)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

These are definitely closer to the Gold Gloves.\u00a0\u00a0 10 of the 16 league leaders here also won GGs.\u00a0 A note here; the Kiermaier DRS figure is apparently the highest ever recorded by a fielder in a single season.\u00a0 Simmons’ 25 DRS dwarfed the field, as does his overall DRS figure over the last three years, more evidence that the GG award to Crawford was poor.<\/p>\n

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Here’s FRAA:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nAL FRAA<\/td>\nNL FRAA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C<\/td>\nFrancisco Cervelli, NYY (11.7)<\/td>\nYasmani Grandal (20.9)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1B<\/td>\nMark Canha, Oak (5.8)<\/td>\nPaul Goldschmidt, Ari (13.0)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2B<\/td>\nRoughned Odor, Tex (5.0)<\/td>\nDanny Espinosa (10.7)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SS<\/td>\nElvis Andrus, Tex (10.3)<\/td>\nJean Segura (10.3)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3B<\/td>\nManny Machado, Bal (20.3)<\/span><\/td>\nNolan Arenado, Col (20.6)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LF<\/td>\nKevin Pillar, Tor (14.3)<\/td>\nYoenis Cespedes (5.2)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CF<\/td>\nKevin Kiermaier, TB (24.6)<\/span><\/td>\nEnder Inciarte, Ari (5.9)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RF<\/td>\nKole Calhoun, LAA (9.5)<\/span><\/td>\nJason Heyward, Stl (11.4)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P<\/td>\nDallas Keuchel, HOU (10.4)<\/span><\/td>\nJake Arrieta, Chc (7.4)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Just 8 of the 18 leaders in this stat also won Gold Gloves, and the presence especially of the Nats’ own Danny Espinosa<\/strong> really calls this stat into question.\u00a0 How is Espinosa, a part time player, the league leader here in a year where there were several other good 2nd basemen?<\/p>\n

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Lastly, Total Zone<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nAL Total Zone Total Fielding<\/td>\nNL Total Zone Total Fielding<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C<\/td>\nJames McCann, Cle (11)<\/td>\nWilson Ramos, Was (11)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1B<\/td>\nMike Napoli (10)<\/td>\nAdrian Gonzalez, LAD (16)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2B<\/td>\nJose Altuve, Hou (13)<\/span><\/td>\nNeil Walker, Pit (7)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SS<\/td>\nFrancisco Lindor, Cle (14)<\/td>\nBrandon Crawford, SF (19)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3B<\/td>\nEvan Longoria, TB (14)<\/td>\nJake Lamb, Ari (10)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LF<\/td>\nYoenis Cespedes, Det (11)<\/span><\/td>\nChristian Yelich, Mia (12)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CF<\/td>\nKevin Kiermaier, TB (24)<\/span><\/td>\nA.J. Pollack, Ari (20)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RF<\/td>\nKole Calhoun, LAA (17)<\/span><\/td>\nIchiro Suzuki, Mia (14)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Its easy to see w here some of the finalists came from in the GG awards, since this is the only list that GG finalist Wilson Ramos<\/strong> appears on.\u00a0 Its also the only place where GG winners Altuve<\/strong> and Crawford<\/strong> appear.\u00a0 Just 6 of these 18 leaders also won GGs, meaning its the least accurate predictor of GG winners.\u00a0 And one of the leaders in practically every other category (Heyward) is supplanted by the 40-yr old Suzuki<\/strong> in these stats.\u00a0 Makes you wonder.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n

It seems to me that the “statistical”component of the Gold Gloves is using the wrong stats (FRAA and\/or TZ), and that it should be using DRS and UZR\/150.\u00a0 Even so, as noted elsewhere, the Gold Gloves are doing a much, much better job selecting the award winners on a whole, and the days of awarding them to the likes of Derek Jeter<\/strong> or Rafael Palmeiro<\/strong> seem long gone.<\/p>\n

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Glossary of these various stats and awards<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n