{"id":11576,"date":"2015-11-19T10:52:59","date_gmt":"2015-11-19T15:52:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11576"},"modified":"2015-11-19T19:46:51","modified_gmt":"2015-11-20T00:46:51","slug":"rule-5-protection-analysis-for-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11576","title":{"rendered":"Rule 5 protection analysis for 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_11582\" style=\"width: 210px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/kieboom_spencer-viacurlyw.mlbblogs.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11582\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11582\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/kieboom_spencer-viacurlyw.mlbblogs.com_-200x300.jpg\" alt=\"Spencer Kieboom seems a likely Rule-5 addition this year. Photo via curlyw.mlbblogs.com\" width=\"200\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/kieboom_spencer-viacurlyw.mlbblogs.com_-200x300.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/kieboom_spencer-viacurlyw.mlbblogs.com_-683x1024.jpg 683w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/kieboom_spencer-viacurlyw.mlbblogs.com_.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-11582\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Spencer Kieboom seems a likely Rule-5 addition this year. Photo via curlyw.mlbblogs.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>We&#8217;re almost through the BBWAA awards; the next off-season deadline is one we talk about every year.\u00a0 According to my handy <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1rE05kljgY8i_IePey_KEDqS_Y8PNRqXQ4qEhqLO_NKI\/edit?usp=sharing\">Off-Season Baseball Calendar 2015-16<\/a>, teams have until tomorrow 11\/20\/15 to add players ahead of the rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, 12\/10\/15 in Nashville).<\/p>\n<p>As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdGhVRjRfNW81SG8xRlROQ1ZxZzNfbUE&amp;hl=en#gid=0\">Draft tracker<\/a>\u00a0and the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdHExYldZVUZJZk9uckFjeEVCSmR5Umc&amp;hl=en#gid=26\">Big Board<\/a>,\u00a0and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here\u2019s some thoughts on who might merit protection. \u00a0The quick Rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2011 or before who isn\u2019t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee from 2010 or before is newly eligible this year.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Newly Eligible 2012 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Spencer Kieboom<\/strong>: no brainer to add; a catcher, getting noticed by scouts for his game-calling and defense, currently in the AFL.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brian Rauh<\/strong>: decent season, but still just a\u00a0 high-A\/AA guy who had decent numbers this year.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Robert Orlan<\/strong>: only mentioned because he&#8217;s lefty, and the team protected a college guy last year (<strong>Matt Grace<\/strong>) almost entirely b\/c he was lefty.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ian Dickson<\/strong>: injured half the year, decent to ok in High-A this year, probably not a candidate to protect.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I&#8217;m leaving out the following guys who are eligible but are not really protection candidates: <strong>Stephen Perez, Craig Manuel<\/strong>, <strong>Robert Benincasa, Derek Self,<\/strong> and <strong>Ronald Pena.\u00a0<\/strong> For main reasons why, see my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11432\">Statistical Review of the 2015 seasons of the 2012 draftees<\/a> where I delve into each guy&#8217;s season and overall prospects at this point in their careers.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Newly Eligible 2011 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Deion Williams<\/strong>, who (as I noted in my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11453\">Statistical Review of the 2015 seasons of the 2011 draftees<\/a> post) i&#8217;m kind of surprised still has a job in the organization.\u00a0 Not a protection candidate.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chris Bostick<\/strong>: acquired in trade but originally a HS 2011 draftee.\u00a0 Earned a mid-season promotion from High-A-&gt;AA, holding his own in the fall league in a probable Rule-5 consideration audition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Newly Eligible 2011 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Pedro Severino\u00a0<\/strong>was probably the #1 candidate to be added to the roster ahead of this coming Rule-5 draft before the team just went ahead and put him on the 40-man along with the 9\/1\/15 roster expansion guys.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Raudy Read<\/strong>: another up and coming IFA catcher who made his way to High-A this year, but may be a year too young to really consider protecting.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jose Marmolejos-Diaz<\/strong>: Took Hagerstown by storm, definitely getting some notice by prospect mavens and likely viewed as a big part of the farm system.\u00a0 Definitely needs protection.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Gilberto Mendez<\/strong>, part time closer for Harrisburg this year but is undersized and doesn&#8217;t have the K\/9 rates you&#8217;d like to see.\u00a0 But, given the dearth of RH relievers, maybe he&#8217;s worth protecting.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Not mentioned: a whole slew of 2011 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system.\u00a0 <strong>Hector Sylvestre, Brian Mejia, Wilman Rodriguez, Anderson Martinez, Randy Encarnacion<\/strong> probably being the most notable\/most accomplished in terms of advancement in the system.\u00a0 None of them are Rule-5 protection candidates.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Minor League Free Agents of Note<\/strong><\/span> (this list is available <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/statistics\/players\/mlfa.php\">at this link<\/a> on BaseballAmerica).\u00a0 These are either original draftees of the Nats who have now played in our org for 6 years, or guys who were MLFA signings from last year, or guys who are randomly FAs despite being recent draftees.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jeff Howell<\/strong>: had pretty good success converting to the mound, moving up our system quickly in 2015.\u00a0 Is he worth protecting?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Matt Purke: <\/strong>still can&#8217;t seem to solve AA, maybe its time to cut the cord.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Matt Skole<\/strong>: I hold out hope that he returns to being the hitting force he once was for this team.\u00a0 But he may have peaked in AAA.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nicholas Lee<\/strong>: had a nice 2015, got sent to the AFL but has only gotten 4IP of work there.\u00a0 Could pull a &#8220;Matt Grace&#8221; and get added surprisingly given that he&#8217;s a closer-quality lefty reliever, but then again this team now has a surplus of such guys.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bryan Harper<\/strong>: see Lee but add a level: Harper was quite effective in AA and earned a late season promotion to AAA.\u00a0 Worth protecting?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>So, who would I protect<\/strong><\/span>?\u00a0 As of today (after yesterday&#8217;s outright of <strong>David Carpenter<\/strong>), the team has 5 open slots on the 40-man roster to work with.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Locks: Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz<\/li>\n<li>Maybes: Read, Mendez, Lee, Harper<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Thoughts?\u00a0 Opinions?\u00a0 Did I forget anyone and\/or am I considering the wrong guys?\u00a0 These IFAs are always iffy in terms of eligibility, and some of the MLFAs are confusing too in terms of their status.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Editor&#8217;s update<\/strong>; a mere hours after posting this, the team <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/nationals-journal\/wp\/2015\/11\/19\/nationals-add-three-to-40-man-roster-ahead-of-fridays-rule-5-deadline\/\">announced its protections <\/a>and we were close.\u00a0\u00a0 They protected Kieboom, Bostick &#8230; and Nick Lee.\u00a0\u00a0 I guess I was being a bit optimistic on Marmolejos-Diaz; it is unlikely that a kid his age and having never played above Low-A would stick on a 25-man roster in this day and age.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>For a fun trip down memory lane, here&#8217;s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9947\">2014<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7502\">2013<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5270\">2012<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1996\">2011<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=363\">2010<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>By year, here&#8217;s who I predicted we&#8217;d add and who we did add.\u00a0 My &#8220;predictions&#8221; are kind of iffy, because in some cases I clearly hedged in the post and said something like &#8220;if it were me I&#8217;d add X,Y and Z but I think they&#8217;ll only add X and Y.&#8221;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2015: Predicted Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/nationals-journal\/wp\/2015\/11\/19\/nationals-add-three-to-40-man-roster-ahead-of-fridays-rule-5-deadline\/\">Actual<\/a>: Kieboom, Bostick, Lee<\/li>\n<li>2014: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9947\">Predicted<\/a> Cole, Skole, Goodwin.\u00a0 Hedged on Grace, Martin and Difo.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10039\">Actual<\/a>: Cole, Goodwin, Difo, Grace.<\/li>\n<li>2013: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7502\">Predicted<\/a> Solis as the only lock (Souza already added). Mentioned in order Barrett, Taylor, Grace, Holland.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2013\/washington-nationals\">Actual: Solis, Barrett, Taylor<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>2012: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5270\">Predicted<\/a> Karns and McCoy, with Hood and Rosenbaum as maybes.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2012\/washington-nationals\">Actual: Karns and Davis<\/a>.\u00a0 I think we were all surprised by Davis&#8217; inclusion, despite his good AA numbers that year.<\/li>\n<li>2011: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1996\">Predicted<\/a> Norris as a lock, guessed strongly on Moore, Meyers and Komatsu.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2011\/washington-nationals\">Actual: Norris, Moore, Solano, Perez<\/a>.\u00a0 \u00a0 This was poor analysis on my part; I did not consider the IFAs newly eligible.<\/li>\n<li>2010: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=363\">Predicted<\/a> Marrero, Meyers and Mandel.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2010\/washington-nationals\">Actual: Marrero, Carr and Kimball<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>2009: pre-dates my blog and thus no predictions, but <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2009\/washington-nationals\">Actual was Jaime, Thompson and Severino<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>2008: I might be wrong, but I don&#8217;t see any evidence of the team protecting *anyone* prior to the Rule-5 draft.\u00a0 A bit of an indictment of the farm system at the time, I&#8217;d say \ud83d\ude42<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;re almost through the BBWAA awards; the next off-season deadline is one we talk about every year.\u00a0 According to my handy Off-Season Baseball Calendar 2015-16, teams have until tomorrow 11\/20\/15 to add players ahead of the rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, 12\/10\/15 in Nashville). As always, using [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,2039],"tags":[916,991,106,17,2997,141,72,257,2995,921,945,2689,124,100,1276,851,1874,286,369,938,391,436,462,943,2128,1915,2999,89,461,2941,2994,1494,1228,1677,733,708,196,933,908,2000,69,2998,2760,940,1290,942,19,2759,1275,1328,2996,2650],"class_list":["post-11576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","category-rule-5","tag-aaron-barrett","tag-aaron-thompson","tag-adam-carr","tag-aj-cole","tag-anderson-martinez","tag-atahualpa-severino","tag-brad-meyers","tag-brian-goodwin","tag-brian-mejia","tag-brian-rauh","tag-bryan-harper","tag-chris-bostick","tag-chris-marrero","tag-cole-kimball","tag-craig-manuel","tag-danny-rosenbaum","tag-deion-williams","tag-derek-holland","tag-derek-norris","tag-derek-self","tag-destin-hood","tag-erik-komatsu","tag-eury-perez","tag-gilberto-mendez","tag-hector-sylvestre","tag-ian-dickson","tag-jeff-howell","tag-jeff-mandel","tag-jhonatan-solano","tag-john-henry-styles","tag-jose-marmolejos-diaz","tag-juan-jaime","tag-matt-grace","tag-matt-purke","tag-matt-skole","tag-michael-taylor","tag-nathan-karns","tag-nicholas-lee","tag-patrick-mccoy","tag-pedro-severino","tag-rafael-martin","tag-randy-encarnacion","tag-raudy-read","tag-robert-benincasa","tag-robert-orlan","tag-ronald-pena","tag-sammy-solis","tag-spencer-kieboom","tag-stephen-perez","tag-steven-souza","tag-wilman-rodriguez","tag-wilmer-difo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11576"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11576\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11601,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11576\/revisions\/11601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}