{"id":11649,"date":"2015-12-16T08:50:58","date_gmt":"2015-12-16T13:50:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11649"},"modified":"2015-12-16T08:50:58","modified_gmt":"2015-12-16T13:50:58","slug":"nationalsmlb-pitching-staff-year-in-review-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11649","title":{"rendered":"Nationals\/MLB Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_11069\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/ScherzerMax-covered-in-chocolate-via-thesportsquotient.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11069\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-11069\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/ScherzerMax-covered-in-chocolate-via-thesportsquotient.com_-300x208.jpg\" alt=\"Scherzer will always have his no-hitters from 2015. Photo via thesportsquotient.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"208\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/ScherzerMax-covered-in-chocolate-via-thesportsquotient.com_-300x208.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/ScherzerMax-covered-in-chocolate-via-thesportsquotient.com_.jpg 628w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-11069\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scherzer will always have his no-hitters from 2015. Photo via thesportsquotient.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the first in a 7-part series where we delve into the pitching staffs from start to end, from the majors all the way to the GCL.\u00a0 We start with the rotations, review all the starters and then hit up the relievers.\u00a0 We try to predict as we go, which I&#8217;ll summarize at the end with a big &#8220;2016 predictions&#8221; piece.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8246\">2013&#8217;s post<\/a> and then <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4872\">2012&#8217;s post<\/a>.\u00a0 We never got to 2014 as I was switching jobs and this series takes a ton of time and I couldn&#8217;t do it.<\/p>\n<p>All stats are courtesy of either <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/teams\/WSN\/2015.shtml\">Baseball-Reference<\/a> page\u00a0or via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2013&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2013&amp;ind=0&amp;team=24&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0\">Fangraphs<\/a> page. \u00a0Also useful here are the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdHExYldZVUZJZk9uckFjeEVCSmR5Umc&amp;hl=en#gid=26\">Big Board<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdGhVRjRfNW81SG8xRlROQ1ZxZzNfbUE&amp;hl=en#gid=0\">Nats Draft Tracker<\/a> as always.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Washington starters<\/strong><\/em>.\u00a0 The rotation at the beginning of the season was Scherzer, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister.\u00a0 By the end of the season it was basically the same, with Roark replacing Ross who had replaced Fister.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Max Scherzer<\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">: 14-12 with a 2.79 ERA, 0.918 whip with 276\/34 K\/BB ratio in 228.2 IP (33 starts).\u00a0 Look at that K\/BB ratio again: that&#8217;s more than 8 strikeouts for every walk for a power pitcher.\u00a0 His season also included two no-hitters (both of which easily could have been perfect games) and a one-hitter, and by one measure (Game Score) his season-ending 17-K no-hitter was nearly the best pitching 9-inning performance ever.\u00a0 If you needed another excuse to ignore W\/L records, just look at Scherzer&#8217;s record on the year given his peripherals.\u00a0 But even given his season on a macro level, some were rather disappointed in Scherzer because in August, when the chips were down and this team collapsed, he was 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in 5 starts.\u00a0 Nonetheless, Scherzer more than earned his salary in 2015 and I see no reason not to expect similar results in 2016.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: 2nd straight opening day start. <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong><\/span>: 13-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.205 whip with 164\/39 K\/BB over 201.2 IP (33 starts).\u00a0 His ERA was a point higher than in 2014, his WHIP was 10% higher and his FIP was inflated to a very un-Zimmermann 3.75 level.\u00a0 Not exactly the walk year season he was hoping for.\u00a0 Nonetheless, Zimmermann should make out like a bandit on the FA market, where he occupies the lead spot in the 2nd tier of FA pitchers and should do just fine.\u00a0 Unfortunately, it seems like his time in DC is up; we don&#8217;t know the size or length of the contract extension he turned down, but it seems obvious that the team didn&#8217;t give him what he and his advisers thought he deserved.\u00a0 He&#8217;ll be oft-mentioned in the coming weeks as he finds a new home and it&#8217;ll be a shame to see him go.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: pitching for another team: Signed with Detroit for 5yrs\/$110M.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Stephen Strasburg<\/strong><\/span>: 11-7, 3.46 ERA, 1.107 whip with 155\/26 K\/BB in 127 IP (23 starts).\u00a0\u00a0 His end-of-the-year numbers don&#8217;t look nearly as bad as the debacle that his season really was.\u00a0\u00a0 He had a 6.55 ERA through his first 10 starts, then missed most of June and July with two separate D\/L trips.\u00a0 Upon his return, he was awesome, dropping his season ERA from 5.16 to 3.46 thanks to 9 quality starts (out of 10) and 5 double-digit strikeout games.\u00a0 But, the damage was done; he was awesome down the stretch in a series of games that ended up being meaningless.\u00a0 On the bright side, the Nats likely save a few million dollars in their arbitration case.\u00a0 Lets just hope that whatever he finally figured out in Aug and Sept continues into next season.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Nats #2 starter.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Gio Gonzalez<\/strong><\/span>: 11-8, 3.79 ERA, 1.423 whip with 169\/69 K\/BB in 175.2 IP (31 starts).\u00a0 Another year, another inconsistent season from our #4 starter.\u00a0 The team was 16-15 in his 31 starts, which makes sense since he had exactly 16 quality starts.\u00a0 I think at this point Gio is what he is: a decently valued 4th starter who earns his salary and puts up enough value to keep his spot.\u00a0 The Nats will ride his arm until his contract expires.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Nats #4 starter.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Doug Fister<\/strong><\/span>: 5-7, 4.19 ERA, 1.398 whip with 63\/24 K\/BB in 103 IP (25 appearances, 15 starts).\u00a0 MLB&#8217;s most underrated starter over the past few\u00a0 years finally had father time catch up to him, going 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA in 15 starts before the team mercifully pulled the plug.\u00a0 His average fastball velocity has been dropping, but dropped precipitously this year (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=9425&amp;position=P\">down to 86.1<\/a>) and just was too hittable.\u00a0 To Fister&#8217;s credit, he accepted the move to the bullpen instead of taking the &#8220;easy&#8221; way out and claiming a D\/L trip, and was effective in 17 relief innings to make his season ERA look a little more palatable.\u00a0 Nonetheless, it was not exactly the way the Nats drew things up.\u00a0 Fister faces an uncertain future; he went from being guaranteed a Qualifying Offer to maybe struggling to get a guaranteed offer.\u00a0 In the end, I can see perhaps a west coast team taking a flier on him as a 5th starter with a pillow contract for him to try to regain some value.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Pitching elsewhere, hopefully as a 5th starter somewhere.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Joe Ross<\/strong><\/span>: 5-5, 3.64 ERA, 1.109 whip with 69\/21 K\/BB in 76.2 IP (16 appearances, 13 starts).\u00a0 Ross initially got called up to cover for Strasburg&#8217;s first injury, and was impressive enough to be the first man in line to replace the suddenly ineffective Fister.\u00a0 He got another 10 mostly effective starts, getting shut down in early September after two ineffective starts where he was uncharacteristically wild (9 of his 21 MLB walks were in his last 2 starts) as he reached a soft innings limit for the year.\u00a0 No complaints here; Ross quickly guaranteed his rotation spot for 2016 with his work during the summer and is making the trade where he was acquired looking even more lopsided.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Nats #3 starter.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Tanner Roark<\/strong><\/span>: 4-7, 4.38 ERA with 70\/26 K\/BB in 111 IP (40 appearances, 12 starts).\u00a0 The Nats thanked Roark for his &#8220;found gold&#8221; 5-win 2014 season by acquiring Scherzer and pushing Roark to the all-important long-man\/slop innings guy.\u00a0 Not exactly what Roark probably expected.\u00a0 He did get 5 starts covering for Strasburg in late May-early June but otherwise was yanked all over the place; sometimes being a one-inning middle reliever, then getting 3+ in a blowout loss, even getting higher leverage innings in the 8th and 9th (he even had a save in May).\u00a0 When Fister proved ineffective, the Nats didn&#8217;t give the slot to Roark like they should have, instead calling up Ross and leaving Roark pitching in relief (their reason was that he wasn&#8217;t stretched out).\u00a0 When it became clear Ross was going to run out of innings, they sent him back to Potomac briefly to &#8220;stretch out&#8221; and Roark finished the year in the rotation with 6 relatively ineffective starts.\u00a0 Not the year Roark wanted.\u00a0 There was an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.beyondtheboxscore.com\/2015\/11\/21\/9767106\/tanner-roark-nationals-lefty-platoon-struggles\">incredibly long-winded article in beyondtheboxscore.com<\/a> that seemed to point at Roark&#8217;s position on the rubber as the cause of all his ills, but i put Roark&#8217;s struggles more simply: pitchers are creatures of habit and when you take a starter and suddenly tell him he&#8217;s a one inning reliever, you shouldn&#8217;t be surprised when he doesn&#8217;t immediately perform in that role.\u00a0 The question the Nats have to face is this: was 2014 a fluke?\u00a0 Do you pencil in Roark for the #5 starter in 2016 or do you try to acquire his replacement?\u00a0 Do you have an open competition between Roark and the slew of AAA arms for the spot?\u00a0 Personally, I&#8217;m a Roark believer and think he&#8217;ll be just fine if you install him in the rotation and let him work.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Nats #5 starter.<\/li>\n<li>Others who got 1-2 Spot Starts:\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Taylor Jordan<\/strong><\/span>: got one spot-start in early June, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/gl.cgi?id=jordata01&amp;t=p&amp;year=2015\">getting pounded<\/a> by Toronto.\u00a0 He provided long-relief cover a few times here and there throughout the season but wasn&#8217;t used even after being called up 9\/1 (perhaps an innings limit?).\u00a0 See AAA write-up for more.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>A.J. Cole<\/strong><\/span> got one spot start in late April, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/gl.cgi?id=coleaj01&amp;t=p&amp;year=2015\">getting destroyed<\/a> by Atlanta in the epic 13-12 game.\u00a0 I was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10500\">highly critical<\/a> of this particular call-up at the time, questioning why the start didn&#8217;t go to Roark at the time.\u00a0 Cole got two other mop-up games to make his ERA slightly less awful for the year, but raised serious questions as to his future.\u00a0 See AAA write-up for more.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Rotation summary<\/strong>: Scherzer was good but struggled when the chips were down.\u00a0 Zimmermann regressed, as did Gonzalez.\u00a0 Strasburg was either awful or\u00a0 hurt most of the season.\u00a0 Fister was abhorrent.\u00a0 Roark was wasted.\u00a0 Yet despite all that negativity surrounding our rotation, the Nats starters as a group were still <a href=\"http:\/\/v\">ranked pretty highly <\/a>: 3rd in fWAR, 7th in ERA, 4th in FIP.\u00a0\u00a0 So, it was still a pretty good rotation but not nearly as good as we thought they&#8217;d be upon the Scherzer acquisition.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em><strong>Washington relievers<\/strong><\/em>.\u00a0 On opening day the MLB bullpen was Storen, Treinen, Stammen, Thornton, Cedeno, Barrett, Roark.\u00a0 By the time it was over, the team had used no less than *20* relievers.\u00a0 Not exactly how they sketched it out in the off-season.\u00a0 Lets talk about all 20 guys; here they are ordered with closers first, then descending by IP.\u00a0 Anyone with less than 10 innings is relegated to the end with generally a shorter write-up.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Drew Storen<\/strong> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">was having a near-all Star calibre season closing, holding a 1.69 ERA with 46\/9 K\/BB over 37.1 IP and 29 saves.\u00a0 Then suddenly he was demoted thanks to the Papelbon acquisition.\u00a0 His numbers post 7\/29\/15: 7.13 ERA in 17 innings, which culminated with his 3-walk performance in the season-ending Mets loss in early September (his 5th blown save of the year).\u00a0 Two days later he slammed a locker on his thumb, broke it and was done for the season along with his team.\u00a0 We&#8217;ve argued this one to death; there are people who like to argue that players are machines and they are highly paid to do whatever the team asks of them.\u00a0 I maintain that this team has tried over and over to replace Storen thanks to a couple of poorly-timed games of ineffectiveness that just happened to occur in the two NLDS series this team has managed to reach, and the &#8220;layering&#8221; of Papelbon over top of him was the icing on the cake of his Nats career.\u00a0 I&#8217;m sure Storen wants out of town, and I&#8217;m sure he&#8217;ll be a classic &#8220;change of scenery&#8221; guy.\u00a0 <strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong> needs to make it happen.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Closing for another team.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Jonathan Papelbon <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11119\">acquired in late July<\/a> straight up for a relatively low-level prospect (<strong>Nick Pivetta<\/strong>), an indication of how desperate Philadelphia was to rid themselves of him.\u00a0 He pitched a grand total of 23.1 innings in two months, through little fault of his own clearly disrupted the karma of the bullpen, and entirely at fault on his own took offense to\u00a0<strong>Bryce Harper<\/strong>&#8216;s non-defense in the press of Papelbon&#8217;s over-reaction and subsequent plunking of\u00a0<strong>Manny Machado<\/strong> in a game earlier in that week and decided that calling out one of the game&#8217;s premier hustlers for &#8220;not hustling&#8221; down the line on a routine pop-up was a good idea.\u00a0 Fast forward to the umpteenth unnecessary embarrassing moment for the franchise and perhaps the final nail in the coffin of the inexplicably unaware and dense manager <strong>Matt Williams<\/strong>.\u00a0 Fun fact: Papelbon <a href=\"http:\/\/ftw.usatoday.com\/2015\/09\/jonathan-papelbon-bought-a-2-9-million-d-c-home-a-week-before-choking-bryce-harper\">bought a $2.9M house<\/a> in Alexandria exactly one week before choking his teammate on national TV and getting suspended for the rest of the season.\u00a0 Good timing.\u00a0 I know that Harper has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/nationals-journal\/wp\/2015\/11\/04\/bryce-harper-has-reached-out-to-jonathan-papelbon-plus-dusty-bakers-experience-in-such-matters\/\">&#8220;reached out&#8221; to Papelbon<\/a> and they&#8217;re all saying this is just &#8216;brothers fighting&#8221; and all that BS, but Rizzo has to be shopping him for whatever he can get for him, upto and including eating the entirety of his $11M 2016 salary.\u00a0 Many think he&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2015\/11\/28\/report-jonathan-papelbon-is-untradeable\/\">completely untradeable<\/a>, but i&#8217;m guessing someone will take a flier on him.\u00a0 <em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Closing for another team.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Blake Treinen<\/strong> <\/span>was the busiest guy in the pen this year (outside of sometimes starter Roark that is), throwing 67.2 innings in 60 innings as mostly an 7th\/8th inning guy.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 He had a 3.86 ERA, a 3.49 FIP, and a 1.389 whip, all incrementally worst in 2015 than the year before.\u00a0 65\/32 K\/BB in those 67IP.\u00a0 Treinen features a mid to upper 90s sinking fastball that has so much movement that TV announcers sometimes think its a changeup, yet still has some really odd splits.\u00a0 Righties had just a .493 OPS against him on the year &#8230; while lefties teed off to the tune of a .934 OPS.\u00a0 Odd because you&#8217;d think that a guy who could throw a fastball that tails away from lefties like Treinen would be more successful.\u00a0 Another oddity; he had a 5.90 ERA at home and just a 2.33 ERA away.\u00a0 So basically, if he was facing a righty on the road, he&#8217;s your guy.\u00a0 He has limited his repertoire to just two pitches these days (2-seam sinker and a wipeout slider), and seems so far removed from having anything resembling a third pitch that any thoughts of returning to the bullpen seem long gone.\u00a0 Is Treinen just a ROOGY (right handed one out guy?)\u00a0 Do teams even have that?\u00a0 Maybe his goal for the off-season is to figure out some pitch that is effective against lefties.\u00a0 He also needs to work on his control; his walk rate of 4.3 per nine just won&#8217;t cut it for a higher leverage reliever.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: back in his 7th\/8th inning role.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Felipe Rivero<\/strong><\/span>, 2.79 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.952 whip and 43\/11 K\/BB in 48.1 relief innings.\u00a0 Rivero was a revelation for the team this year, converting to relief for the first time in his career and really shining.\u00a0 He has some serious heat; max fastball of 99.8 and an average of 95.5 from the left side, but really was a two pitch pitcher this season; fastball and slider (fangraphs distinguishes his 4-seamer from his 2-seamer but the velocities are exactly the same; does he throw two different, distinct fastballs?)\u00a0\u00a0 Unlike Treinen, Rivero got righties and lefties out at equal clips (.200 BAA for righties, .198 for lefties) and really came into his own in the bullpen.\u00a0 He&#8217;s much more than a matchup-lefty and could be a valuable bullpen member for a while.\u00a0 Can he return to starting?\u00a0 Hard to say; does he have a third pitch?\u00a0 Years of starting in the minors seems to indicate that his future remains in the pen.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: reprising his 7th inning reliever role.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Matt Thornton<\/strong> <\/span>had an excellent age 38 year; 2.18 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.065 ERA in 41.1 relief innings across 60 appearances.\u00a0 His FIP is much higher than his ERA because he doesn&#8217;t rely as much on the strikeout; he had just a 23\/11 K\/BB ratio in those 41.1 innings.\u00a0 His splits showed some interesting tidbits: 10 of his 11 walks on the year came against right handed hitters, while he had an 11\/1 K\/BB ratio when facing lefties.\u00a0 Thornton is best judged by his performance against lefties and he was excellent; .198\/.205\/.279, and this is why I&#8217;m an advocate of resigning him for 2016.\u00a0 I&#8217;m still kind of baffled by his being waived by the Yankees frankly.\u00a0 The FA market for left handed relievers is a little busy; I count <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2014\/09\/2016-mlb-free-agents.html\">20 lefties out there<\/a>.\u00a0 But not all of them were as effective as Thornton was in 2015.\u00a0 Can the Nats re-sign him?\u00a0 Do they want to?\u00a0 They do have several in-house loogy replacements to be discussed, if they wanted to save a couple million dollars off of payroll.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: another season as a loogy, for the Nats or elsewhere.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Casey Janssen<\/strong><\/span>: when the Nats acquired Janssen, a three year closer for the Toronto Blue Jays, I figured the team&#8217;s late-inning bullpen issues were solved.\u00a0 The loss of\u00a0<strong>Rafael Soriano<\/strong> was inevitable (and, frankly, not really that important given how badly he finished 2014), but the loss of\u00a0<strong>Tyler Clippard<\/strong> was going to be hard to fix.\u00a0 But plugging in a former AL east closer into the 8th inning role?\u00a0 No worries.\u00a0 Well, that&#8217;s not quite how it went.\u00a0 Janssen got hurt in spring training, missed the first 7 weeks of the season &#8230; and then underwhelmed once he arrived.\u00a0 His numbers on the season: 4.95 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.150 whip, with 27\/8 K\/BB in 40 IP.\u00a0\u00a0 Perhaps the 4.95 ERA is skewed by a few bad outings: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/gl.cgi?id=janssca01&amp;t=p&amp;year=2015\">scanning through his game log<\/a> he gave up 4 runs on 5\/30, another 4 runs on 8\/31, 3 more the following day (in that infamous St. Louis series) and 2 on 9\/27.\u00a0 So of the 22 runs he allowed all year, 13 of them were in four outings.\u00a0 Perhaps so, but his job as an 8th inning guy is not to allow these massive rallies, ever.\u00a0 His fastball velocity has been declining and his 4-seamer sat at just 88.3 MPH on average this year; is that fast enough even if you have pinpoint control and can throw 5 pitches?\u00a0 Apparently not; Janssen&#8217;s struggles were a big part of the bullpen&#8217;s struggles this year, a big reason they felt the need to acquire Papelbon, and in crunch time towards the end of the season Williams didn&#8217;t trust him to give him important assignments.\u00a0 The Nats bought out his option year and cut ties with him; the end of a disappointing season together.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: middle reliever for another organization.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Aaron Barrett<\/strong><\/span>: started out the year looking good as a key 6th\/7th inning righty, struggled starting in May, hit the D\/L in June, got lit up on Aug 5th to the point of getting demoted to AAA, at which point he (finally) told team doctors that his arm had been bugging him for weeks (months even).\u00a0 A quick scan showed a blown UCL and he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/nationals-journal\/wp\/2015\/09\/05\/aaron-barrett-undergoes-successful-tommy-john-surgery-and-more\/\">underwent Tommy John surgery<\/a> on September 5th, 2015.\u00a0 Final season stats: 4.60 ERA but a 2.21 FIP, 1.193 whip and 35\/7 K\/BB in 29.1 innings.\u00a0 Look; you don&#8217;t want to wish ill will on a guy for trying to gut it out, but at what point was his arm issues impacting his performance on the field and costing the team games?\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: on the 60-day D\/L for most if not all the season.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sammy Solis<\/strong> <\/span>was closer to a DFA than a call-up at the end of 2014, a season mostly lost to injury and lost promise of the former 2nd round pick.\u00a0 But a slew of injuries forced him into action in the Nats bullpen and he held up, throwing 21.1 innings of 3.38 ERA, 3.46 fip, 1.359 whip with a 17\/4 K\/BB ratio.\u00a0 That&#8217;s not too bad of a debut, even if it was his age 26 season.\u00a0 He showed a reverse split interestingly, with lefties hitting him at a .355 clip (righties: .255).\u00a0 I have a feeling that the team is likely going to look elsewhere for a second lefty out of the pen.\u00a0 Option number one is probably resigning Matt Thornton, which will relegate Solis to AAA\/spare part duty in Syracuse.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Syracuse bullpen\/lefty reliever coverage.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Matt Grace<\/strong><\/span>; 4.24 ERA, 3.08 fip, 2.00 whip with 14\/8 K\/BB in 17 IP across 26 outings.\u00a0 Grace is a nice story, a guy who really came on strong in 2014 and earned his 40-man slot.\u00a0 But his numbers in his first go-around in the majors were less than ideal.\u00a0 See Solis&#8217; write up and then add on a little pessimism and you have Grace right now; too many baserunners and not enough ability to get right handers out (.429 BAA) to be trusted as an effective major league reliever right now.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: As with Solis Syracuse bullpen\/lefty reliever coverage.\u00a0 Except he&#8217;s &#8220;behind&#8221; Solis.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Rafael Martin<\/strong><\/span>: everyone&#8217;s favorite story.\u00a0 Signed out of the Mexican leagues, shot up the system posting just ridiculous numbers in AA and AAA in 2013 and 2014.\u00a0 Finally got his shot and had some really odd stat lines: 5.11 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.378 whip with 25\/5 K\/BB in 12.1 major league innings.\u00a0 That&#8217;s right; he had an 18.2 K\/9 ratio.\u00a0 He struck out 8 of the first 12 batters he faced, including a pretty memorable debut where he struck out 5 guys in two innings in Boston in mid April.\u00a0 He was looking like a made-for-TV-movie story until he took a rough outing in Miami and got sent down &#8230; not to be recalled until 9\/1.\u00a0 He threw a bunch of garbage time innings in September and got his ERA back down but kept striking guys out with his upper 80s arsenal.\u00a0 Why didn&#8217;t he get more of a shot when the chips were down and other right handed relievers were struggling in August?\u00a0 I don&#8217;t know.\u00a0 Honestly, I think he&#8217;d make an excellent long-man\/middle reliever, the classic &#8220;7th guy out of the pen&#8221; with his ability to go long and spin the ball in there as a change of pace versus harder throwing guys.\u00a0 Something tells me though that he&#8217;s going to be back in Syracuse as bullpen insurance.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: Syracuse bullpen\/righty reliever coverage.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>David Carpenter<\/strong><\/span>: acquired in trade from the Yankees for <strong>Tony Renda<\/strong>, threw 6 innings in the majors for the team, got hurt, went to the 60-day D\/L with a shoulder issue, outrighted on 11\/15\/15, refused the assignment and has already signed with Atlanta for 2016.\u00a0 Not exactly the best return for a former 2nd round pick and slightly surprising he was outrighted while there was still room on the 40-man roster (and still is room as we speak).\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: in Atlanta organization.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Craig Stammen<\/strong><\/span>: threw just 4 innings before requiring elbow surgery.\u00a0 A huge blow for a guy who had been a team leader in IP and an effective middle reliever for\u00a0 years.\u00a0 He&#8217;s arbitration eligible, and the team could not arrive at an equitable deal ahead of the 12\/2\/15 non-tender deadline, so Stammen was non-tendered.\u00a0 I have a feeling that if the team still wants him for 2016 and will work out some sort of heavy incentive-laden deal to keep him in the fold (he&#8217;s been with the organization since 2005 after all, tying him for the longest tenured player still with the team now that <strong>Ian Desmond<\/strong> has declared FA.\u00a0\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: hopefully back in his 7th inning middle relief role, perhaps pitching elsewhere.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Xavier Cedeno<\/strong><\/span>: threw 3 innings, gave up 3 hits, 2 walks and two runs, then was inexplicably DFA&#8217;d and traded to the Dodgers for &#8220;cash.&#8221;\u00a0 The Dodgers then turned around and traded him to Tampa, where he put up a 2.09 ERA in 43 IP in 2015.\u00a0 What the heck happened here?\u00a0\u00a0 We <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10452\">talked about it in this space<\/a> when it happened, and the quick hook DFA was as inexplicable then as it seems now.\u00a0 Was this perhaps the first precursor into the questionable bullpen management that plagued<strong> Matt Williams<\/strong> all year?\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><em><strong>Outlook for next season<\/strong><\/em>: a valuable loogy for Tampa.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li>Other Relievers who pitched too few innings for analysis:\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Taylor Hill<\/strong>: provided 12 innings of bullpen coverage in Late May-Early June: see AAA write-up.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Abel de los Santos<\/strong>: added to the 40-man, called up and started his service clock (oh, and burned an option too while they were at it) so that he could throw to exactly eight (8) batters in mid-july before being returned to Harrisburg.\u00a0 Ridiculous use of resources frankly.\u00a0 See AA write-up.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li>Position players <strong>Clint Robinson<\/strong> and <strong>Tyler Moore<\/strong> became the 1st and 2nd position players to ever hurl for the Washington franchise, each throwing the final inning in a blow-out loss.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Bullpen summary<\/strong>: Ugh, what a mess from start to finish.\u00a0 Under performance, injuries, and a rotating door of guys trying to perform.\u00a0 By the end of August there wasn&#8217;t anyone even worth trusting in that pen, as evidenced in the critical Mets home series where the season was lost.\u00a0 Even given that, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=rel&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2015&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2015&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=18,d\">bullpen as a whole<\/a> ranked 12th in fWAR, 10th in ERA, 9th in FIP, so it wasn&#8217;t really that bad league-wide.\u00a0 Which surprised me too when I went to fangraphs to pull the data.\u00a0 Some more telling stats: 7th in the league in Blown saves with 27.\u00a0 17th in total saves.\u00a0 17th in Holds.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pitching summary overall<\/strong>: we expected more, and in the end the performance of the staff and bullpen probably wasn&#8217;t the sole reason this team failed to win the NL East.\u00a0 But it didn&#8217;t help.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s the first in a 7-part series where we delve into the pitching staffs from start to end, from the majors all the way to the GCL.\u00a0 We start with the rotations, review all the starters and then hit up the relievers.\u00a0 We try to predict as we go, which I&#8217;ll summarize at the end [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[916,2690,17,1475,1693,164,1217,2729,98,2875,241,52,2237,385,114,2691,452,43,1753,1228,2589,1314,1037,129,1965,69,1398,19,38,77,197,24,128,1786],"class_list":["post-11649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-aaron-barrett","tag-abel-de-los-santos","tag-aj-cole","tag-bill-clinton","tag-blake-treinen","tag-bryce-harper","tag-casey-janssen","tag-clint-robinson","tag-craig-stammen","tag-david-carpenter","tag-doug-fister","tag-drew-storen","tag-felipe-rivero","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-ian-desmond","tag-joe-ross","tag-jonathan-papelbon","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-manny-machado","tag-matt-grace","tag-matt-thornton","tag-matt-williams","tag-max-scherzer","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-nick-pivetta","tag-rafael-martin","tag-rafael-soriano","tag-sammy-solis","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tanner-roark","tag-taylor-hill","tag-taylor-jordan","tag-tyler-clippard","tag-xavier-cedeno"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11649"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11649\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11684,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11649\/revisions\/11684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}