{"id":12104,"date":"2016-04-07T12:39:00","date_gmt":"2016-04-07T16:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12104"},"modified":"2016-04-07T13:45:14","modified_gmt":"2016-04-07T17:45:14","slug":"nats-major-minor-league-pitching-staffs-vs-last-falls-predictions-2016-version","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12104","title":{"rendered":"Nats Major &#038; Minor League Pitching Staffs vs last fall&#8217;s Predictions 2016 Version"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_4571\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/GiolitoLucas-Eric-Dearborn-photography-via-Win-for-Teddy-blog.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-4571\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4571\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4571\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/GiolitoLucas-Eric-Dearborn-photography-via-Win-for-Teddy-blog-300x224.jpg\" alt=\"Giolito's in AA to start ... does he ever even see AAA? Photo Eric Dearborn via win-for-teddy blog\" width=\"300\" height=\"224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/GiolitoLucas-Eric-Dearborn-photography-via-Win-for-Teddy-blog-300x224.jpg 300w, https:\/\/nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/GiolitoLucas-Eric-Dearborn-photography-via-Win-for-Teddy-blog.jpg 630w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4571\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Giolito&#8217;s in AA to start &#8230; does he ever even see AAA? Photo Eric Dearborn via win-for-teddy blog<\/p><\/div>\n<p>After reviewing all the 2015 pitching staffs, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11871\">I projected where I thought everyone<\/a> would start in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Now that the <a href=\"http:\/\/nationalsprospects.com\/2016\/04\/nationals-announce-affiliate-rosters\/\">four full-season affiliates<\/a> have been announced, lets see how my predictions turned out.\u00a0 As always, <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc\/edit?hl=en#gid=31\">the Big Board<\/a> (maintained by SpringfieldFan) is a great resource to track everyone.<\/p>\n<p>Notations here: * = lefty, ^ == new off-season acquisition.\u00a0 Also, &#8220;Missing&#8221; usually means &#8220;Stuck in Extended Spring Trianing\/XST&#8221; or in organizational limbo.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MLB Predicted<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rotation: Scherzer, Strasburg, Ross, Gonzalez*, Roark<\/li>\n<li>Bullpen: Papelbon, Treinen, Rivero*, Perez*^, Kelley^, Gott^, Petit^<\/li>\n<li>D\/L: Barrett (60-day DL)<\/li>\n<li>out of organization: Zimmermann, Fister, Storen (traded), Thornton*, Janssen, Carpenter, Stammen (non-tendered)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MLB Actual Opening day<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rotation: Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez*, Ross, Roark<\/li>\n<li>Bullpen: Papelbon, Treinen, Rivero*, Perez*, Kelley, Belisle, Petit<\/li>\n<li>D\/L: Barrett (60-day DL)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Discussion<\/strong><\/span>: only one surprise from the pre-Spring Training prediction for this team: <strong>Matt Belisle<\/strong> makes the team ahead of <strong>Trevor Gott<\/strong>.\u00a0 Otherwise everyone is in the roles they were acquired to hold.\u00a0 There was some question about whether <strong>Blake Treinen<\/strong> would get optioned early in the spring, but not now.\u00a0 The order of the starters wasn&#8217;t right: <strong>Ross<\/strong> is being treated like the 4th starter and <strong>Roark<\/strong> the 3rd, I guess.<\/p>\n<p>It probably wasn&#8217;t too hard to predict 12 out of the 13 spots in the MLB roster, so we won&#8217;t pat ourselves on the back too much.\u00a0 Lets talk minors.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">AAA Predicted<br \/>\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rotation: Cole, Jordan, Espino, Voth, Laffey*^, THill, Arroyo^<\/li>\n<li>Bullpen: Martin, Solis*, Grace*, Brady^, Bacus, de los Santos, Runion, Velasquez^, Masset^, EDavis, Burnett*^<\/li>\n<li>Release Candidates: McGregor, Walters<\/li>\n<li>out of organization: Billings, Bleier*, Swynenberg, Fornataro, Meek, Runion, Lively, Gutierrez, Valverde, Delcarmen, RHill, Overton<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AAA Actual<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>starters: Cole, Jordan, Espino, THill, Voth<\/li>\n<li>spot starts\/swingman: Laffey*<\/li>\n<li>bullpen: Martin, Solis*, Grace*, Runion, Massett, EDavis, Gott<\/li>\n<li>dl\/restricted: Arroyo, Brady<\/li>\n<li>in AA: Bacus, de los Santos<\/li>\n<li>missing: no one<\/li>\n<li>cut\/released\/FAs: McGregor, Velasquez, Walters, Burnett (opted-out)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Discussion<\/strong><\/span>: No surprises in the Rotation: we predicted 7 guys in the AAA rotation competition and ended up with the 5 we predicted, a 6th as the swing-man\/spot starter and the 7th (Arroyo) on the D\/L for the time being.<\/p>\n<p>The bullpen has some surprises: <strong>Gott<\/strong> as previously mentioned was projected in the majors; the other 6 bullpen members were in the 10 projected guys competing for the AAA spots.\u00a0 Two guys got pushed to AA.\u00a0 <strong>Brady<\/strong> starts on the D\/L.\u00a0 Both my release candidates did in fact get released, along with off-season MLFA <strong>Velasquez<\/strong>.\u00a0 The real surprise making the AAA team was <strong>Masset<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Burnett<\/strong> opted out when he didn&#8217;t make the MLB team, but it wasn&#8217;t a stretch to predict that happening.<\/p>\n<p>No real projection surprises though, all in all.\u00a0 Nobody who we projected to start in AA got moved up; only a couple guys who got moved down (<strong>Bacus<\/strong> and <strong>de los Santos<\/strong>).\u00a0 I&#8217;m slightly surprised de los Santos is in AA and it makes me question even more his 40-man add and usage last year (3 days of service time and now two options blown).<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AA Projected<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rotation: Spann*, Giolito, Simms, Alderson, RLopez, Mapes, Gorski^<\/li>\n<li>Bullpen: Mendez, Harper*, Shackelford^, NLee*, Benincasa, Suero, Thomas*, Walsh*, Robinson^, Whiting^<\/li>\n<li>Release Candidates: Rauh, Bates, Self, Dupra<\/li>\n<li>out of organization: Purke*, Pivetta, Simmons, Demny, Ambriz, Gilliam<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>AA Announced<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>starters: Giolito, Simms, RLopez, AWilliams, Mapes<\/li>\n<li>spot starts\/swingman:<\/li>\n<li>bullpen: Mendez, Harper*, NLee*,\u00a0 Suero, Fish*, Bacus,\u00a0 Gutierrez, de los Santos<\/li>\n<li>In High-A: Thomas*, Robinson, Whiting, Rauh, Self<\/li>\n<li>dl\/restricted: none<\/li>\n<li>missing: Spann*, Alderson, Shackelford, Benincasa, Bates<\/li>\n<li>cut\/released\/FAs: Gorski, Walsh*, Dupra<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Discussion<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n<p>The big surprise here is that <strong>Austen Williams<\/strong> made the AA team; I had him at High-A.\u00a0 Perhaps it isn&#8217;t THAT big of a surprise given how well he pitched last year, but it does seem to go away from the Nats&#8217; proclivities to start guys at their prior season&#8217;s level and have them &#8220;earn&#8221; early to mid-season promotions.\u00a0 He joins a pretty high powered duo of <strong>Giolito<\/strong> and <strong>Lopez<\/strong>.\u00a0 <strong>Gorski<\/strong> was an off-season MLFA brought in for competition and he didn&#8217;t win.\u00a0 Only one of my four release candidates was in fact released (<strong>Dupra<\/strong>): the other three got dumped to XLS or High-A, which is good for them but not good for the massive log-jam of recently drafted college arms who need spots in A-ball.<\/p>\n<p>In the bullpen, we&#8217;ve talked before about the surprising release of <strong>Jake Walsh<\/strong>.\u00a0 There&#8217;s 5 guys stuck in XST limbo for now, a couple of which are release candidates.\u00a0 One name that popped out of the blue is <strong>Robert Fish<\/strong>, who signed an under-the radar MLFA deal in mid February and who apparently hasn&#8217;t pitched professionally in two full seasons.\u00a0 He must have had a pretty good spring.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>High-A Projected<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rotation: AWilliams, Fedde, Valdez, Dickson, Bach*, Van Orden,<\/li>\n<li>Bullpen: Johanssen, Amlung (swingman),\u00a0 Napoli*, Orlan*, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre*<\/li>\n<li>Release Candidates: RPena, Turnbull*<\/li>\n<li>out of organization: Schwartz, Howell, CDavis, MRodriguez, Cooper (just released)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>High-A Announced<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>starters: Fedde, Valdez, Estevez, LReyes,\u00a0 Whiting<\/li>\n<li>spot starts\/swingman: Sanchez,<\/li>\n<li>bullpen: Brinley, Glover, Johansen, Orlan*, Robinson, Self, Thomas*<\/li>\n<li>dl\/restricted: Rauh, Sylvestre*,\u00a0 Turnbull*<\/li>\n<li>missing: Bach*<\/li>\n<li>cut\/released\/FAs: Walsh, Dupra, Dickson, Van Orden, Amlung, Napoli*<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Discussion: My High-A predictions show just how out of whack my &#8220;reading the stat lines&#8221; predictions can be, especially for starters.<\/p>\n<p>In the Rotation, A<strong>Williams<\/strong> earned a jump to AA.\u00a0 I thought <strong>Dickson<\/strong> and <strong>Van Orden<\/strong> were solid rotation candidates; instead they got released.\u00a0 Lastly, I thought both <strong>Estevez<\/strong> and <strong>Reyes<\/strong> were repeating Hagerstown; Estevez missed the whole season and Reyes posted a 4.82 ERA there last year.\u00a0 Instead they&#8217;re opening day starters for Potomac.\u00a0 Not even close here.<\/p>\n<p>In the Bullpen, we got <strong>Johanssen, Orlan, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre<\/strong> and <strong>Turnbull<\/strong> right (not too bad prediction wise), though the last couple guys are on the D\/L and still may be release candidates.\u00a0 Who did we miss on?\u00a0 <strong>Robinson<\/strong> was an off-season MLFA (who signs MLFAs for high-A?), and <strong>Sanchez<\/strong> I had projected to repeat after posting a 4.86 in Hagerstown last year.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Low-A Projected<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rotation: LReyes, JRodriguez, ALee, Dickey, Hearn*, Crownover*<\/li>\n<li>Bullpen: MSanchez (swingman),\u00a0 Guilbeau*, Borne*, Rivera Jr., Gunter, Peterson, Baez<\/li>\n<li>release candidate: Estevez, DWilliams, DRamos, Boghosian, Mooney, Pirro<\/li>\n<li>out of organization: Ullmann, KPerez, Mooneyham, Johns (just released)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Low-A Actual<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>starters: JRodriguez, ALee, Hearn*, Crownover*, Guilbeau*, Bach,<\/li>\n<li>spot starts\/swingman:<\/li>\n<li>bullpen: Rivera Jr, Peterson, Baez, VanVossen, LTorres, RPena, DeRosier,<\/li>\n<li>dl\/restricted: JMorales<\/li>\n<li>missing: Dickey, Borne*, Gunter, DRamos, Mooney, Pirro<\/li>\n<li>cut\/released\/FAs: Amlung, Van Orden, Napoli*, DWilliams, Boghosian<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Discussion<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>From a starter standpoint, we did a pretty good job projecting who would be in Hagerstown&#8217;s rotation.\u00a0 Four of the Six projected candidates &#8220;seem&#8221; like they&#8217;re in the rotation (full disclosure, we&#8217;re kind of guessing who these teams are using as starters until we see the first turn through the rotation).\u00a0 The misses?\u00a0 <strong>LReyes<\/strong>, who surprisingly is in High-A, and <strong>Guilbeau<\/strong>, who I thought would be on the team but in a relief role.<\/p>\n<p>In the bullpen; we missed on <strong>Sanchez<\/strong> (who made High-A), <strong>Borne<\/strong> and <strong>Gunter<\/strong> (both of whom are in XST for now).\u00a0 In their place are a slew of guys who I was projecting to be elsewhere.\u00a0 I thought both <strong>VanVossen<\/strong> and <strong>DeRosier<\/strong> were release candidates after poor 2015 seasons in Short-A; instead they&#8217;re in the opening day bullpen.\u00a0 I had <strong>LTorres<\/strong> in the Short-A bullpen after mostly failing as a short-A starter.<\/p>\n<p>Lastly there&#8217;s <strong>Bach<\/strong> and <strong>RPena<\/strong>; I had both projected in Potomac.\u00a0 I thought Bach had a perfectly good Low-A season last year and has nothing yet to prove in the Sally League.\u00a0 Pena returns to Hagerstown for the third time; he pitched in Low-A in 2013 and 2014.\u00a0 You have to think this is a planned short stint before he returns to at least High-A.<\/p>\n<p>No real surprises in the &#8220;Missing\/XST&#8221; crew: <strong>Dickey<\/strong> is the biggest profile name here but it seems to me he was injured last\u00a0 year so its hard to pass judgement on his stats anywhere.\u00a0 <strong>Borne<\/strong>&#8216;s numbers were basically identical to the likes of Hearn and Guilbeau&#8217;s; he missed out in the 2016 competition.\u00a0 <strong>Gunter<\/strong> might make sense as a mid-season promotion to cover for injury.\u00a0 <strong>Ramos<\/strong> was hurt most of the year last\u00a0 year.<\/p>\n<p>In the &#8220;release candidate&#8221; section, I was clearly wrong about Estevez.\u00a0 <strong>DWilliams<\/strong> and <strong>Boghosian<\/strong> have already indeed been released.\u00a0 And both <strong>Mooney\/Pirro<\/strong> missed out on the full-season roster and are in XST limbo.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Let the games begin!\u00a0 Are there surprises for you guys in these rosters?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After reviewing all the 2015 pitching staffs, I projected where I thought everyone would start in 2016. Now that the four full-season affiliates have been announced, lets see how my predictions turned out.\u00a0 As always, the Big Board (maintained by SpringfieldFan) is a great resource to track everyone. Notations here: * = lefty, ^ == [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[2690,2854,3147,2469,1693,195,1816,3025,2005,3145,1874,2468,2826,2128,1915,3021,1991,2691,3144,2807,2827,919,852,2138,3029,3026,3143,2853,2568,3056,3035,3057,1875,2569,3146,1290,942,2884,108,77,2829,3067,918],"class_list":["post-12104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-minorspitching","tag-abel-de-los-santos","tag-adam-boghosian","tag-andrew-robinson","tag-austen-williams","tag-blake-treinen","tag-brian-dupra","tag-cody-gunter","tag-connor-bach","tag-dakota-bacus","tag-darin-gorski","tag-deion-williams","tag-drew-van-orden","tag-grant-borne","tag-hector-sylvestre","tag-ian-dickson","tag-jake-johanssen","tag-jake-walsh","tag-joe-ross","tag-jon-velasquez","tag-kevin-mooney","tag-koda-glover","tag-kyle-turnbull","tag-lucas-giolito","tag-luis-reyes","tag-luis-torres","tag-mario-sanchez","tag-matt-beslile","tag-matt-pirro","tag-matthew-derosier","tag-michael-brady","tag-mick-vanvossen","tag-nick-masset","tag-reynaldo-lopez","tag-robbie-dickey","tag-robert-fish","tag-robert-orlan","tag-ronald-pena","tag-ryan-brinley","tag-sean-burnett","tag-tanner-roark","tag-taylor-guilbeau","tag-trevor-gott","tag-wirkin-estevez"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12104"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12104\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12114,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12104\/revisions\/12114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}