{"id":12146,"date":"2017-02-13T10:56:04","date_gmt":"2017-02-13T15:56:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12146"},"modified":"2017-03-27T09:27:17","modified_gmt":"2017-03-27T13:27:17","slug":"updated-nats-prospect-and-organizational-rankings-for-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12146","title":{"rendered":"Updated Nats Prospect and Organizational Rankings for 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_13547\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/roblesvictorauburn-via-milb.com_.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-13547\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13547\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-13547\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/roblesvictorauburn-via-milb.com_-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"Victor Robles is the new unanimous #1 Nats prospect. Photo via milb.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/roblesvictorauburn-via-milb.com_-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/roblesvictorauburn-via-milb.com_.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-13547\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Victor Robles is the new unanimous #1 Nats prospect. Photo via milb.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>We&#8217;re essentially through the &#8220;Prospect Ranking Season&#8221; at this point. \u00a0We&#8217;ve \u00a0heard from all the major shops who rank systems and individual prospects (MLBpipeline.com\/<strong>Jim Callis\/Jonathan Mayo<\/strong>, ESPN\/<strong>Keith Law<\/strong>, Baseball America\/<strong>J.J. Cooper, John Manuel<\/strong>, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs\/<strong>Eric Longenhagen<\/strong>\u00a0, Minorleagueball\/<strong>John Sickels\/Nick Melotte<\/strong>, Prospects Digest\/<strong>Joseph Werner<\/strong> and TopProspectAlert.com\/<strong>JP Schwartz<\/strong>). \u00a0If you know of a reputable site that also does rankings not listed here, i&#8217;m all ears.<\/p>\n<p>Click here for the updated Master List\u00a0of <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1VKq2Pug1syX5mQI-qpFLZmwRCgaZwaTOSgeDxnVeRh4\/edit?usp=sharing\">Nationals Prospect Rankings<\/a>\u00a0for all the pre-2017 rankings. \u00a0This worksheet is one of my longest running projects, with every Nats prospect ranking I could find dating from Nov 2004 to the present.<\/p>\n<p>With the trade of\u00a0<strong>Lucas Giolito<\/strong> we have a new #1 prospect on all the major lists:\u00a0<strong>Victor Robles<\/strong>. \u00a0 Every minor-league wide ranking that I&#8217;ve found has Robles between #8 and #13 among all\u00a0minor league players right now. \u00a0Nearly every shop generally mentions\u00a0either\u00a0<strong>Erick Fedde<\/strong> or\u00a0<strong>Juan Soto<\/strong> (or both) in the 50-70 range. \u00a0Nobody has any mention of anyone else in the system right now, consistent with most opinions that the Nats system right now is a big top three, then a\u00a0gap, then everyone else.<\/p>\n<p>What is fascinating to me right now is the huge gap of opinion on some of our prospects. \u00a0Its been a while since we&#8217;ve seen such a dichotomy of opinion on our players, and it may very well highlight the methodology differences between the talent evaluators out there. \u00a0Lets discuss some of the more interesting cases:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Luis Garcia<\/strong>: ranked as high as #4 in the system (Fangraphs) to outside the top 20 (Sickels and Law). \u00a0 The 2016 IFA signing cost a ton ($1.3M) and has yet to appear in any pro league, which may be why some evaluators don&#8217;t even list him. \u00a0Meanwhile Longenhagen is clearly bullish on the player and had him 4th, just after the system&#8217;s big three. \u00a0That seems aggressive to me; I&#8217;d at least like to see him in organized ball before putting such a ceiling on him.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sheldon Neuse<\/strong>: mostly in the #6-#7 range &#8230; except for Baseball America, who has him all the way down at #17. \u00a0Clearly they thought his debut season was a disappointment. \u00a0I&#8217;m not ready to give up on Neuse after the collegiate career he had, but for him to slash just .230\/.305\/.341 in Auburn was definitely shocking.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jesus Luzardo<\/strong>; again Fangraphs was way higher on him (#9) than anyone else. \u00a0In fact, Sickels didn&#8217;t even have him in the top 20. \u00a0Clearly the fangraphs methodology is more about potential and less about realization.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Drew Ward<\/strong>: Sickels had him #10, Fangraphs outside the top 20. \u00a0We may have a bit of prospect fatigue on Ward since we drafted him as a high schooler. \u00a0But its worth noting that he posted a .868 OPS figure this year at high A as a 21-yr old (he didn&#8217;t turn 22 til after the season) and earned a promotion to AA. \u00a0He also earned a NRI this spring, where he went 3-15 but did blast two homers. \u00a0I think his power is coming around (11 homers in 64 Carolina league games, not exactly a hitter&#8217;s paradise league) and he could be a sneaky prospect going forward.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kelvin Gutierrez<\/strong>: as with several others, we find Longenhagen far more bullish on Gutierrez (#11) versus others (16th at best, outside of Law&#8217;s top 20). \u00a0Perhaps its trying to spit hairs once you get to a certain point in the system, this act of attempting to rank players who likely never get above AA. \u00a0But it does show that Longenhagen&#8217;s methodology definitely rates a certain type of player higher than other pundits.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yasiel Antuna:\u00a0<\/strong>the Nats&#8217; &#8220;other&#8221; big July 2 signing from last year, Antuna got a massive, franchise record $3.9M bonus despite being lower ranked than Garcia on most international prospect boards. \u00a0Nonetheless, most of the pundits had Antuan in the 19-25 range &#8230; except for\u00a0Werner\u00a0at topprospectdigest&#8230; he put Antuna #5 in the system. \u00a0Werner&#8217;s logic went like this: $3.9M is about what the 3rd overall pick in the Rule-4 draft went for, so therefore Antuna must be ranked on a par with an upper-end first round talent. \u00a0I&#8217;m not sure I agree with that logic, and would rather put Antuna down in the mid-20s like others have him ranked until we see what he can do in organized ball.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tyler Watson<\/strong>: again Baseball America hates this player as opposed to others. \u00a0BA has him #27 while Law and Sickels had him in the 14-15 range. \u00a0I like Watson a ton; he utterly dominated Short-A as a 19yr old, meaning he more than held his own against newly drafted higher-end incoming college juniors. \u00a0Its weird; why rank two completely untested 16yr old Dominican prospects higher than a domestic lefty arm who is 6&#8217;5&#8243;, already throws 90 and clearly has projection in his frame?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Joan Baez<\/strong>: Another with some wild variation in rankings. \u00a0Law has him #10 but BA has him #29. \u00a0MLB gives him a 70 fastball and a 60 curve-ball, which means they think he could be an effective 2-pitch reliever in the majors, right now. \u00a0Its weird; what&#8217;s the essential difference between Baez and\u00a0<strong>Koda Glover<\/strong> right now?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rhett Wisemann<\/strong>: completely disappeared from all rankings &#8230; with the exception of Sickels, who snuck him in at #20.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Telmito Agustin<\/strong>: another Werner one-off; he had Agustin ranked 9th in the system, where as both MLB and BA had him #28 and everyone else had him outside their top 20. \u00a0Agustin&#8217;s season was decent for a 19-yr old in Low-A, but his best tool is his run tool and he nearly had as many CS (9) as he had SB (14) in his half-season at Hagerstown. \u00a0And he played mostly LF in Hagerstown, though that may have been due to the presence of Robles there. \u00a0I don&#8217;t see much more in Agustin than a\u00a0<strong>Matt den Dekker<\/strong> type; is that the 9th best prospect in the system?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nick Banks<\/strong>: his crummy junior year became a relatively weak Short-A debut; he slugged just .320 there. \u00a0Still, Law ranked him 17th and still thinks the Nats got good value in Banks given his post-sophomore season buzz. \u00a0Most others have abandoned him; MLB and BA put him at the back end of their top 30s and others ignored him.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And then there&#8217;s this list; these are players who formerly got at least some brief prospect mention in the past who are now off everyone&#8217;s top 20-30 list:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Andrew Lee<\/strong>: Was ranked in the 20th range last year on some lists. \u00a0missed most of 2016 with an injury after a promising 2015 debut for the 11th rounder. \u00a0I think he can bounce back and put his name back in the mix.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Austen Williams<\/strong>: Got some love in the 15-20th rage last year, none this year after his ERA ballooned to north of 5.00 and getting demoted mid-season. \u00a0He&#8217;ll presumably be a 24-yr old repeating High-A a third time in 2017, so time is running out.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jefry Rodriguez<\/strong>: peaked as high as #6 on some lists in the 2014 range, his stock has fallen precipitously. \u00a0He had a 4.96 ERA in a full season of starting in Low-A in his age 23 season. \u00a0Perhaps its time to move him to the pen to see if he can focus on his best pitches in shorter stints.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Spencer Kieboom<\/strong>: never was a major prospect but did get some rankings in the 15-20 range over the years. \u00a0He&#8217;s still 4th on the C depth chart for the Nationals, but his DFA and passing through waivers to get off the 40-man roster is an indictment of where he really is right now.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Nick Lee<\/strong>; got some back-of the top-30 list recognition last year after getting put on the 40-man; now he&#8217;s off the 40-man and will miss significant time due to an elbow fracture in 2017. \u00a0He&#8217;s now 26 and staring in the face of being a permanent &#8220;org guy&#8221; type arm.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Here also is a list of the <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/15d0ufaBi35XXklj6WYmORvCGfhh5WQxSpAkb0PDof9M\/edit?usp=sharing\">30 Minor League Organizations<\/a> as ranked by various pundits. \u00a0As you might expect, the system has been shredded with the graduation of\u00a0<strong>Trea Turner<\/strong> (and in some cases\u00a0<strong>Wilmer Difo<\/strong>) along with the trading of Giolito, <strong>Reynaldo Lopez<\/strong> and <strong>Dane Dunning<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Observations:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Amazingly, 4 of the 5 pundits tracked all ranked the Nats farm system exactly the same: #19. \u00a0Only Law varied and only slightly, dropping the Nats to #22.<\/li>\n<li>Everyone is unanimous in ranking Atlanta #1. \u00a0Most everyone believes the Yankees now have the #2 ranking (Werner&#8217;s rankings are a bit suspect when compared to others).<\/li>\n<li>The White Sox jumped from generally being in the mid 20s to being ranked in the 3-5 range by most pundits. \u00a0Makes sense. \u00a0Law has them all the way down at #10, which seems like an outlier.<\/li>\n<li>BA is the outlier on Houston&#8217;s farm system, ranking them #3 while everyone else had them at 10-12.<\/li>\n<li>Law loves the Mets; he ranked them 7th while everyone else had them at middle of the pack #15.<\/li>\n<li>At the other end of the spectrum, there&#8217;s little disagreement among the pundits about who is at the bottom (either Arizona or Miami), nor with the last 4-5 teams in general. \u00a0Nearly all the pundits panned Arizona, Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City and the Angels&#8217; farm systems, with none of these teams being ranked higher than #22 on any list.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Its rather scary to see two of the wealthiest teams (the Dodgers and the Yankees) also possessing strong farm systems; it does not bode well for competitive balance in the near future. \u00a0It is also scary to see a divisional rival like Atlanta so fully loaded; the Nats will struggle to compete if the Braves prospects matriculate properly, since it will likely coincide with our natural decline after the 2018 FA purge occurs.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;re essentially through the &#8220;Prospect Ranking Season&#8221; at this point. \u00a0We&#8217;ve \u00a0heard from all the major shops who rank systems and individual prospects (MLBpipeline.com\/Jim Callis\/Jonathan Mayo, ESPN\/Keith Law, Baseball America\/J.J. Cooper, John Manuel, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs\/Eric Longenhagen\u00a0, Minorleagueball\/John Sickels\/Nick Melotte, Prospects Digest\/Joseph Werner and TopProspectAlert.com\/JP Schwartz). \u00a0If you know of a reputable site that also [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3457,440,771,530,590,475,2767,3386,110,3384],"class_list":["post-12146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-eric-longenhagen","tag-jim-callis","tag-jj-cooper","tag-john-manuel","tag-john-sickels","tag-jonathan-mayo","tag-joseph-werner","tag-jp-schwartz","tag-keith-law","tag-nick-melotte"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12146","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12146"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12146\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13556,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12146\/revisions\/13556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12146"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12146"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12146"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}