{"id":1247,"date":"2011-05-02T09:57:35","date_gmt":"2011-05-02T13:57:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1247"},"modified":"2011-05-02T09:57:35","modified_gmt":"2011-05-02T13:57:35","slug":"looking-ahead-what-to-do-with-marquis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1247","title":{"rendered":"Looking ahead: what to do with Marquis?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1249\" style=\"width: 210px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/MarquisJason_AlBelloGettyImages_bleacherreport.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1249\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1249\" title=\"MarquisJason_AlBelloGettyImages_bleacherreport.com\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/MarquisJason_AlBelloGettyImages_bleacherreport.com_-200x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/MarquisJason_AlBelloGettyImages_bleacherreport.com_-200x300.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/MarquisJason_AlBelloGettyImages_bleacherreport.com_.jpg 334w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1249\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Marquis is putting himself in a very enviable position with his great start to 2011.  Photo Al Bello\/Getty images via bleacherreport.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>As <strong>Jason Marquis<\/strong> was putting the finishing touches on his <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_29_sfnmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was&amp;partnerId=rss_was\">5-hit shutout<\/a> last Friday, I got a hypothetical question from Jason, a buddy of mine: If Marquis continues this great start, what should the team do with him?<\/p>\n<p>To review the facts at hand:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Through 5 starts, he&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/marquja01.shtml\">3-0 with a 2.62 era and 1.165 whip<\/a>.\u00a0 That&#8217;s good for a 149 ERA+.<\/li>\n<li>More importantly,this performance does not seem to be the product of luck or chance; his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/winss.aspx?team=Nationals&amp;pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2011&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2011\">FIP and xFIP<\/a> are excellent (2.47 and 3.13 respectively).\u00a0 By way of comparison, the MLB best FIP last year was 2.41 (Josh Johnson), and the best xFIP was 2.92 (Roy Halladay).\u00a0 Lastly his BABIP is .306, so if anything he&#8217;s been slightly unlucky on batted balls.\u00a0 So he&#8217;s definitely pitching at a very elite level.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s in the 2nd year of a <a href=\"http:\/\/mlbcontracts.blogspot.com\/2005\/01\/washington-nationals_01.html\">2yr\/$15M deal<\/a> ($7.5M each year).<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s 32, and turns 33 in August.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I think the answer is, &#8220;trade him for prospects&#8221; and here&#8217;s why.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s part of the long term solution for this team.\u00a0 We&#8217;ve got too many up-and-coming arms in the minors to block them with a veteran.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;ll be 33 at the end of the season, and may be looking for a 3 year deal if he pitches well enough.\u00a0 I&#8217;m not sure the team wants to commit to a career 98 ERA+ guy for 3 years.<\/li>\n<li>Despite his fantastic start, and even if he continues, I just don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s that good of a pitcher.\u00a0 He&#8217;s got a career ERA in the 4.50 range.\u00a0 He&#8217;s generally been considered a durable, low K\/9 but high K\/BB innings eater, the kind of guy you make your 4th or 5th starter.<\/li>\n<li>He&#8217;s in a contract year, and he&#8217;s shown some tendencies to pitch better when he&#8217;s playing for his next contract.\u00a0 The best season of his previous 3year deal was in the final year of that deal in Colorado.<\/li>\n<li>The Nats are not going to compete in 2011.\u00a0 We&#8217;re struggling to stay at .500, have very little offense right now, and are certain to trade their veteran\/one-year contract guys at the deadline.\u00a0 This is one of the main reasons we made room and retained guys like <strong>Chad Gaudin<\/strong> and <strong>Laynce Nix<\/strong> at the expense of <strong>Balester<\/strong> and <strong>Bernadina<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The counter arguments?\u00a0 If Marquis&#8217; 2011 performance is really more in line with what he&#8217;s capable of, then he could be a really valuable addition to a 2012 rotation that (at this point) seems to include <strong>Strasburg<\/strong>, <strong>Zimmermann<\/strong>, <strong>Lannan<\/strong>, and <strong>Gorzelanny<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0 He&#8217;s<a href=\"http:\/\/www.brooksbaseball.net\/pfxVB\/pfx.php?month=4&amp;day=29&amp;year=2011&amp;game=gid_2011_04_29_sfnmlb_wasmlb_1%2F&amp;pitchSel=150302&amp;prevGame=gid_2011_04_29_sfnmlb_wasmlb_1%2F&amp;prevDate=429\"> throwing 91-92 <\/a>with serious downward movement (sink) right now and he&#8217;s really difficult to hit against.\u00a0 Perhaps he&#8217;s turned a corner and escaping the altitude in Colorado really has enabled his sinker to become closer to unhittable.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s pitching at a higher level than his $7.5M AAV contract (seemingly on pace for another 14-15 win season), and could be considered a real bargain if we could sign him to a comparable number for 3 more years.<\/p>\n<p>But, if Marquis is retained it leaves little room for advancement for any of a slew of AAA and AA prospects we have overachieving right now in the organization.\u00a0 The question becomes this; would you rather pay for the proven starter or roll the dice with rising prospects who cost one-twentieth the salary?\u00a0 Honestly, the most valuable commodity in baseball is the pre-arbitration ace starter (think <strong>Clay Buchholz<\/strong> going 17-7 in 2010 and getting paid $443k) and it may be worth the gamble.\u00a0 But these AA arms are just prospects; despite having sparkling k\/9 numbers in AA, there&#8217;s no guarantee that translates to the majors.\u00a0 Some GMs want the known quantity versus the unknown gamble, and there&#8217;s a very legitimate argument that keeping Marquis gives us the &#8220;known quantity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I think the move is to flip Marquis to a contender at or before the trade deadline.\u00a0 Honestly, wouldn&#8217;t the New York Yankees LOVE to have him to shore up their rotation?\u00a0 And wouldn&#8217;t he love to go to New York, since he hails from New Jersey and reportedly still lives there in the off season?\u00a0 Trade him, get some higher-end prospects that are quick to the majors (think the <strong>Wilson Ramos<\/strong>&#8211;<strong>Matt Capps<\/strong> deal last year) and prepare for 2012.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As Jason Marquis was putting the finishing touches on his 5-hit shutout last Friday, I got a hypothetical question from Jason, a buddy of mine: If Marquis continues this great start, what should the team do with him? To review the facts at hand: Through 5 starts, he&#8217;s 3-0 with a 2.62 era and 1.165 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1247"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1247\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1279,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1247\/revisions\/1279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}