{"id":12486,"date":"2016-06-14T09:07:26","date_gmt":"2016-06-14T13:07:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12486"},"modified":"2016-06-14T09:10:23","modified_gmt":"2016-06-14T13:10:23","slug":"first-look-quick-overview-of-nats-top-10-draft-picks-for-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12486","title":{"rendered":"First Look: Quick overview of Nats top 10 Draft picks for 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_12501\" style=\"width: 218px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/KieboomCarter-via-pg.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-12501\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12501\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-12501\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/KieboomCarter-via-pg-208x300.jpg\" alt=\"Carter Kieboom is the first pick of the Nats in 2016's draft. Photo via PerfectGame\" width=\"208\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/KieboomCarter-via-pg-208x300.jpg 208w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/KieboomCarter-via-pg.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 208px) 100vw, 208px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-12501\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Carter Kieboom is the first pick of the Nats in 2016&#8217;s draft. Photo via PerfectGame<\/p><\/div>\n<p>It was a strange first two days of the draft, with no consensus 1-1 overall, some very last minute moves, and some pretty surprising picks. \u00a0For me, the best player in this draft (NJ prep LHP\u00a0<strong>Jason Groome<\/strong>) fell all the way to 12th and the Phillies picked a kid 1-1 overall in <strong>Mickey Moniak\u00a0<\/strong>who seems to have the ceiling of a weaker\u00a0<strong>Steve Finley<\/strong>. \u00a0We saw a consensus top-5 pick test positive for PEDs (<strong>Delvin Perez<\/strong>), and a sub-par CWS appearance cost\u00a0<strong>A.J. Puk\u00a0<\/strong>millions of dollars as he falls from everyone&#8217;s 1-1 prediction to #6 overall.<\/p>\n<p>The Nats seemed to really depart from the draft strategy we&#8217;ve seen the\u00a0<strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong>-led front office follow in the past, where they normally focused on college arms with an occasional high-ceiling prep bat. \u00a0Here&#8217;s a quick look at the top 10 draft picks with some thoughts.<\/p>\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-8\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-8\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\">Round<\/th><th class=\"column-2\">Overall<\/th><th class=\"column-3\">Name\/Position<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">Position<\/th><th class=\"column-5\">Col\/HS<\/th><th class=\"column-6\">School<\/th><th class=\"column-7\">Slot Value<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">1-S<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">28<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Carter Kieboom<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">SS<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">HS<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">Clemson<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">2065900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">1-S<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">29<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Dane Dunning<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Jr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">Florida<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">2034600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">58<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Sheldon Neuse<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">3B<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Jr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">Oklahoma<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">1107000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">3<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">94<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jesus Nuzardo<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">LHP<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">HS<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">Miami<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">635800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">4<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">124<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Nick Banks<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (rf)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Jr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">TAMU<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">473300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-7\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">5<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">154<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Daniel Johnson<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">OF (CF)<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Jr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">New Mexico State<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">354300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-8\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">6<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">184<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Tres Barrera<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">C<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Jr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">Texas<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">265400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-9\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">7<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">214<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Jacob Noll<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">2B<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Sr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">FGCU<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">198900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-10\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">8<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">244<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">A.J. Bogucki<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">RHP<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Jr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">UNC<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">177700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-11\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">9<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">274<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Joey Harris<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">C<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Sr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">Gonzaga<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">166000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-12\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">10<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">304<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Paul Panaccione<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">SS<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Col Sr.<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">Grand Canyon<\/td><td class=\"column-7\">156600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-8 from cache -->\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Pick by Pick<\/strong><\/span>: if they&#8217;re ranked on the four\u00a0main rankings sites I like (Keith Law, MLBpipeline, BaseballAmerica, and BaseballDraftReport) I&#8217;ll note them as such. \u00a0Links to these three master rankings are at the bottom of the post.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1s\/28:\u00a0<strong>Carter Kieboom<\/strong>, SS\/3B from Georgia HS. \u00a0Law #27, MLB #45, BA #44, BDR #14: \u00a0Brother of our budding C prospect\u00a0<strong>Spencer Kieboom<\/strong>, Carter is thought to be the best of three baseball playing brothers. \u00a0Described consistently\u00a0as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B. \u00a0He&#8217;s an overdraft according to MLB and BA but right in line with Law&#8217;s rankings (Law tends to favor toolsy prep players over lower floor\/lower ceiling college guys). \u00a0My thoughts: very surprising first pick here; as we soon find out, the team is clearly focusing on bats this year and has no qualms about picking a guy who won&#8217;t feature for the MLB team for years. \u00a0<strong>Update<\/strong>: <a href=\"http:\/\/m.nationals.mlb.com\/news\/article\/183851372\">he&#8217;s *already* signed<\/a>!<\/li>\n<li>1s\/29:\u00a0<strong>Dane Dunning<\/strong>, RHP starter\/reliever from Florida. \u00a0Law #25, MLB #59, BA #60, BDR unranked. Once again, Law has this player significantly higher than MLB or BA. \u00a0For me its notable that when projected 1-1 pick\u00a0<strong>A.J. Puk<\/strong> got hit around in the CWS regional, it was Dunning who came in and pitchd 3 2\/3rds of 1-hit ball to win the game for Florida. \u00a0It wouldn&#8217;t be the first time that a college coach mis-used a quality arm (see Illinois using\u00a0<strong>Tyler Jay<\/strong> inexplicably as a closer most of last year). \u00a0Dunning goes before even his team&#8217;s friday starter\u00a0<strong>Logan Shore<\/strong> and surprised the heck out of me. \u00a0Especially when you consider who was still on the board in terms of college arms (notably\u00a0<strong>Anthony Kay<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Dakota Hudson<\/strong><strong>,\u00a0<\/strong>both of whom went in the picks just after Dunning. \u00a0I&#8217;m talking myself into Dunning though; he was on my very early list for upper 1st round talents anyway, and seems like he was a better pro prospect than guys pitching ahead of him in the Florida rotation. \u00a0Florida is known as a great program for developing arms, and he comes to the Nats without a ton of use.<\/li>\n<li>2nd\/58:\u00a0<strong>Sheldon Neuse<\/strong>, SS\/3B Oklahoma. \u00a0Law #60, MLB #50, BA #129, BDR #40. \u00a0Interesting discrepancy of opinion on Neuse; MLB likes him a ton and thinks the Nats got good value. \u00a0He&#8217;s a 3-time all-Big12 pick who likely moves to third in pro ball and also throws out of the Oklahoma bullpen (so there&#8217;s a reliever fall back; he&#8217;s clocked at 94). \u00a0At the plate, he&#8217;s got a ton of power, profiles as a 3-true outcomes guy and drastically improved his walk rate this year. \u00a0The scouting reports also think his big arm could profile in RF, and his size could look promising behind the plate. \u00a0He sounds like a polished college hitter with some pop, not unlike last year&#8217;s 3rd rounder\u00a0<strong>Rhett Wiseman<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>3rd\/94:\u00a0<strong>Jesus Nuzardo<\/strong>, LHP from Florida HS. \u00a0Law #42, MLB #77, BA #50, BDR #58. \u00a0The Nats special; a Tommy John reclamation project. \u00a0Nuzardo was projecting as a mid 1st rounder early this spring before blowing out the elbow; if he comes back to form, then the Nats just stole a 1st round talent in the 3rd round. \u00a0You&#8217;d have to think that Nuzardo&#8217;s advisor will tell him that it makes more sense to join the Nats and their experienced TJ-rehab team than to head to Miami, but we&#8217;ll see what happens.<\/li>\n<li>4th\/124:\u00a0<strong>Nick Banks<\/strong>, OF from Texas A&amp;M. \u00a0Law Unranked, MLB #101, BA #88, BDR #148. \u00a0I love this pick; Banks led the US Collegiate national team in hitting just last summer, but his stats backed up after he had a minor surgical procedure. \u00a0Skills don&#8217;t erode overnight, and Banks was thought to be a mid 1st round pick who slid precipitously. \u00a0I think the Nats got an absolute steal here and Banks will be a stud for this team for years to come.<\/li>\n<li>5th\/154:\u00a0<strong>Daniel Johnson<\/strong>, OF from New Mexico State. \u00a0BA #222. \u00a0Johnson was the WAC player of the year, hit for power and average. \u00a0Barely rated and seems like he&#8217;ll sign for slot or less. \u00a0Sounds like a nice little value pick.<\/li>\n<li>6th\/184:\u00a0<strong>Tres Barrera<\/strong>, C from Texas. \u00a0Law unranked, MLB #194, BA #284, BDR unraked. \u00a0A Catcher who had the defensive flexibility to move around as the Texas team needed him. \u00a0This is more than just a filler pick at this point; i&#8217;m guessing he signs for a bit less than slot and could feature later on.<\/li>\n<li>7th\/214:\u00a0<strong>Jacob Noll<\/strong>, 2B from Florida Gulf Coast. \u00a0BA #240, BDR #193: Nice slash line for a senior, even if it was in a weaker conference. \u00a0367\/.427\/.620 . \u00a0Classic senior sign; 6th-10th round, middle infielder, likely a nominal bonus to save cash for later. \u00a0Can&#8217;t argue with the pick.<\/li>\n<li>8th\/244:\u00a0<strong>A.J. Bogucki<\/strong>: RHP reliever from UNC. \u00a0BA #263, BDR #388. \u00a0Nice stats for a guy at this point:\u00a09.48 K\/9 \u2013 4.47 BB\/9 \u2013 50.1 IP \u2013 2.86 ERA. \u00a0Good MPH on his fastball, looks a little wild though. \u00a0I wonder if he signs. \u00a0Still has a year of eligibility and he&#8217;s in that area where they&#8217;re looking for bonus savings.<\/li>\n<li>9th\/274:\u00a0<strong>Joey Harris<\/strong>, C from Gonzaga; unranked anywhere. \u00a0Classic college senior sign who likely backs up Barrera at Auburn.<\/li>\n<li>10th\/304:\u00a0<strong>Paul Panaccione<\/strong>, Sr. SS from Grand Canyon U. \u00a0See 9th round pick; likely a one-and-done middle infielder for Auburn in 2016.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>First 10 rounds worth of picks breakdown<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>8 Position players, just 3 arms.<\/li>\n<li>9 College, 2 prep (typical)<\/li>\n<li>3 clear senior sign\/save on bonus money that I could tell (Noll, Harris, Panaccione)<\/li>\n<li>2 more in Johnson and Barrera\u00a0who could be targeted for under-slot deals<\/li>\n<li>Regional breakdown: 5 from SouthEast (Georgia, Florida, North Carolina), 5 from the South West (Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona), and one from the upper NW (Washington).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/span>: I like the first four picks, a lot. \u00a0<strong>Keith Law<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/meadowparty.com\/blog\/2016\/06\/10\/klawchat-61016\/\">liked the Nats first couple of days too<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0I like the focus on hitters after years of focus on arms. \u00a0I like the underrated pick up of Dunning over other &#8220;big name&#8221; guys who may be overrated. \u00a0 I love the Banks pick; think its a steal not \u00a0unlike the situation where\u00a0<strong>Rendon<\/strong> fell to the Nats because of a short-term injury concern. \u00a0I know practically nothing of anyone after Banks.<\/p>\n<p>What do you guys think of it?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Draft Links of\u00a0Use<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">MLB.com Official <a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/draft\/2016\">2016 Draft Central<\/a> home page.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">MLB&#8217;s Awesome <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/events\/draft\/y2016\/drafttracker.jsp\">2016 Draft Tracker<\/a>; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Official<\/span> <a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/draft\/2016\/order\">MLB 2016 Draft Order<\/a><span style=\"color: #000000;\">. Per my &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1R3HOMRl5249KFxqalMU25HfAywomh6oA9ljWksTKZ3c\/edit#gid=450186249\">evolving draft order<\/a>&#8221; xls online, The Nats forfeited what would have been the #16 pick and now their first two picks are #28 and #29.\u00a0 After that, they pick 58th, 94th, 124th and then +30 picks there after per round.<\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Official <a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/news\/article\/170470526\/2016-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values\">Draft Bonus Pool totals for 2016<\/a>.\u00a0 Reds and Phillies have the most ($13M+).\u00a0 Nats have $7.6M<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">MLB <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/history\/draft\/draft.jsp#\">Draft Database<\/a> for all past databases.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Fangraphs <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/scoutboard.aspx\">Sortable Draft Board<\/a><\/span>; a great new tool Fangraphs has that lets you slice and dice their top draft board.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Baseball-Reference <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sports-reference.com\/blog\/2015\/06\/2015-mlb-draft-tools\/\">Draft Tools<\/a><\/span>: links to their draft database plus some custom reports.<\/span><\/li>\n<li>Baseball America&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/draft\/2016-mlb-draft-order\/\">2016 Draft Order<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Draft Rankings referred to within here<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ESPN\/<strong>Keith Law<\/strong>&#8216;s June &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/blog\/mlb-draft\/insider\/post?id=2744&amp;ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_BigBoard2.0CoreyRaystillNo1\">Draft Big Board<\/a>&#8221; (insider only)<\/li>\n<li>MLBpipeline&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/news\/article\/181721674\">top 200 draft prospects<\/a>:<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Baseball America&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/draft-preview\/\">top 500 draft prospects<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/baseballdraftreport.com\/2016\/06\/09\/2016-mlb-draft-final-big-500\/\">BaseballDraftReport big 500<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It was a strange first two days of the draft, with no consensus 1-1 overall, some very last minute moves, and some pretty surprising picks. \u00a0For me, the best player in this draft (NJ prep LHP\u00a0Jason Groome) fell all the way to 12th and the Phillies picked a kid 1-1 overall in Mickey Moniak\u00a0who seems [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[3194,2906,3162,3186,3157,3187,3191,3178,3193,2908,3190,440,3195,475,110,3154,3177,129,3060,3196,3189,3188,2759,3185,3192,2790],"class_list":["post-12486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","tag-aj-bugucki","tag-aj-puk","tag-anthony-kay","tag-carter-kieboom","tag-dakota-hudson","tag-dane-dunning","tag-daniel-johnson","tag-delvin-perez","tag-jacob-noll","tag-jason-groome","tag-jesus-nuzardo","tag-jim-callis","tag-joey-harris","tag-jonathan-mayo","tag-keith-law","tag-logan-shore","tag-mickey-moniak","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-nick-banks","tag-paul-panaccione","tag-rhett-wisemann","tag-sheldon-neuse","tag-spencer-kieboom","tag-steve-finley","tag-tres-barrera","tag-tyler-jay"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12486"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12486\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12539,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12486\/revisions\/12539"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}