{"id":12733,"date":"2016-07-05T09:50:54","date_gmt":"2016-07-05T13:50:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12733"},"modified":"2016-07-05T09:50:54","modified_gmt":"2016-07-05T13:50:54","slug":"nats-2016-draft-status-where-do-we-stand-now-that-dunning-has-signed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12733","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2016 Draft Status: Where do we stand now that Dunning has signed?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Dane<\/a>

Dane Dunning headlines the 2016 draft class.<\/p><\/div>\n

On Thursday 6\/30\/16, the big domino in our 2016 draft class\u00a0Dane Dunning<\/strong> finally signed<\/a>, which brought the Nats draft dollar shell game into more acute focus.<\/p>\n

For those unfamiliar, here’s how the MLB draft now works with the new CBA-driven draft slotting and bonus system: \u00a0Every pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a slot figure (here’s the 2016 slot figures directly pick by pick<\/a>). \u00a0But you don’t have to spend all those dollars on each of those individual picks; if you “save” $100 by signing your (say) 4th rounder for $100 less than the slot value, that gives you $100 “extra” dollars to spend on someone else. \u00a0Any pick made above the 10th round can be paid up to $100,000 without having to count against the total bonus figure, which is important because if you give a 11th rounder $500k, that’s $400k that has to be counted against your top 10 budget.<\/p>\n

So, the more important figure to keep in mind is this: $7,635,500<\/strong>. \u00a0That’s the sum of all the slot values of\u00a0the 11 picks in the first 10 rounds that the Nats had this year. \u00a0An even more important figure is this: $8,017,275<\/strong>: that is precisely 5% above the $7.6M number, which is the “buffer” that MLB gives teams so as to go above their total slot values (along with a dollar-for-dollar tax penalty) without being penalized with lost future draft picks.<\/p>\n

So, that being said, upon the Dunning signing, the Nats (by my calculations) had spent exactly $8,095,000 in bonus money, or $22,275 less than their upper end figure before getting penalized.<\/p>\n

Here’s a list of those signees with dollar figures:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Round<\/th>Overall<\/th>Name\/Position<\/th>Bonus Amt<\/th>Slot Value<\/th>Savings off of Slot?<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1-S<\/td>28<\/td>Carter Kieboom<\/td>2000000<\/td>2065900<\/td>65900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1-S<\/td>29<\/td>Dane Dunning<\/td>2000000<\/td>2034600<\/td>34600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>58<\/td>Sheldon Neuse<\/td>900000<\/td>1107000<\/td>207000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>94<\/td>Jesus Nuzardo<\/td>1400000<\/td>635800<\/td>-764200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>124<\/td>Nick Banks<\/td>500000<\/td>473300<\/td>-26700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>154<\/td>Daniel Johnson<\/td>325000<\/td>354300<\/td>29300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>184<\/td>Tres Barrera<\/td>210000<\/td>265400<\/td>55400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>214<\/td>Jacob Noll<\/td>190000<\/td>198900<\/td>8900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>244<\/td>A.J. Bogucki<\/td>150000<\/td>177700<\/td>27700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>274<\/td>Joey Harris<\/td>10000<\/td>166000<\/td>156000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>304<\/td>Paul Panaccione<\/td>10000<\/td>156600<\/td>146600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>334<\/td>Armand Upshaw<\/td>400000<\/td>100000<\/td>-300000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

The team went way\u00a0over slot to sign third rounder\u00a0Jesus Nuzardo<\/strong>, paying him the equivalent of mid 2nd round money to buy him out of his Miami commitment and get him into the fold. \u00a0That seems like good value; he was projecting as a 1st rounder out of HS earlier in the year before hurting his arm. \u00a0 The team went slightly over budget to get\u00a0Nick Banks<\/strong>, a nominal amount in the end for a US collegiate National team guy who also projected as a first rounder at the beginning of the year. \u00a0Lastly they dropped $400k ($300k over slot) on their 11th rounder\u00a0Armand Upshaw<\/strong>, a move that has been somewhat questioned based on his Juco Stats (he did have a 4-year commitment to Missouri that had to be bought out). \u00a0These two big over-slot deals means\u00a0club basically ended up with an extra 2nd rounder and an extra 5th rounder. \u00a0That’s pretty good value.<\/p>\n

The team went under slot (as has now become the custom) with a number of its round 6-10 guys to save the money needed for these overslot deals: they got their 9th and 10th rounders for just $10k each (Joey Harris<\/strong> and\u00a0Paul Panaccione<\/strong>); with all due respect to these two guys, don’t expect much out of them beyond this year. \u00a0Surprisingly to me, they got 2nd rounder\u00a0Sheldon Neuse<\/strong> to sign for more than $200k underslot; this was a guy who was named the Big 12 player of the year<\/a> this year, was\u00a0Louisville Slugger 2nd team all-american<\/a>, was a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes award\u00a0and was just give the 2016 “Brooks Wallace” award for best college shortstop<\/a>. \u00a0Basically, he had a great year this year and I like this pick.<\/p>\n

The side effect of their spending thus far is this: there probably are no more deals to be made. \u00a0Here’s a list of the rest of the draft class ( from round 12 to 40) with a quick yes\/no flag as to whether they’re signed yet:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Round<\/th>Overall<\/th>Name\/Position<\/th>Position<\/th>Col\/HS<\/th>College or Cmtm<\/th>Signed?<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
12<\/td>364<\/td>Hayden Howard<\/td>LHP<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>Texas Tech<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>394<\/td>Conner Simonetti<\/td>1B<\/td>Col Jr.<\/td>Kent State<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>424<\/td>Kyle Simonds<\/td>RHP<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>Texas A&M<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>454<\/td>Ryan Williamson<\/td>LHP<\/td>Col Jr.<\/td>North Carolina State<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>484<\/td>Phil Morse<\/td>RHP<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>Shenandoah (Va.)<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/td>514<\/td>Tyler Beckwith<\/td>SS<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>Richmond<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>544<\/td>Ben Braymer<\/td>LHP<\/td>Col Jr.<\/td>Auburn<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>574<\/td>Jarrett Gonzales<\/td>C<\/td>HS<\/td>Grayson Junior College<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>604<\/td>Jake Barnett<\/td>LHP<\/td>Col Jr.<\/td>Lewis-Clark State (Idaho)<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/td>634<\/td>Jacob Howell<\/td>RHP<\/td>Col Jr.<\/td>Delta State (Miss.)<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22<\/td>664<\/td>Sterling Sharp<\/td>RHP<\/td>Col Jr.<\/td>Drury (Mo.)<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23<\/td>694<\/td>Michael Rishwain<\/td>RHP<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>Westmont (Calif.)<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24<\/td>724<\/td>Joseph Baltrip<\/td>RHP<\/td>J2<\/td>Wharton County (Texas) JC<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25<\/td>754<\/td>Branden Boggetto<\/td>SS<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>Southeast Missouri State<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26<\/td>784<\/td>Jack Sundberg<\/td>OF<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>Connecticut<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27<\/td>814<\/td>Jeremy McDonald<\/td>LHP<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>California Baptist<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28<\/td>844<\/td>Jonny Reid<\/td>LHP<\/td>Col Jr.<\/td>Azusa Pacific (Calif.)<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29<\/td>874<\/td>Sam Held<\/td>RHP<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>Nevada<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30<\/td>904<\/td>Tristan Clarke<\/td>OF<\/td>J2<\/td>Eastern Oklahoma State JC<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31<\/td>934<\/td>C.J. Picerni<\/td>C<\/td>Col Sr.<\/td>New York<\/td>Yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32<\/td>964<\/td>Garrett Gonzales<\/td>3B<\/td>HS<\/td>Incarnate Word<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33<\/td>994<\/td>Ryan Wetzel<\/td>SS<\/td>HS<\/td>Pitt State<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34<\/td>1024<\/td>Morgan Cooper<\/td>RHP<\/td>Col Jr.<\/td>Texas<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35<\/td>1054<\/td>Tristan Bayless<\/td>LHP<\/td>HS<\/td>??<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36<\/td>1084<\/td>Jordan McFarland<\/td>OF<\/td>HS<\/td>Arkansas<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37<\/td>1114<\/td>Cory Voss<\/td>C<\/td>J2<\/td>McLennan (Texas) CC<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38<\/td>1144<\/td>Noah Murdock<\/td>RHP<\/td>HS<\/td>UVA<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
39<\/td>1174<\/td>Matt Mervis<\/td>1B<\/td>HS<\/td>Duke<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
40<\/td>1204<\/td>Sean Cook<\/td>RHP<\/td>HS<\/td>Maryland walk-on?<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

So who is left unsigned at this point?\u00a0 It is a fair assumption that any HS player drafted in the 12-40 range is not going to sign at this point; there’s just no additional dollars to incentivize\u00a0them and they’ve all got college commitments. \u00a0So lets talk about the college players left on a case by case basis:<\/p>\n

(Note; in-between the original writing of this post and the publication, both\u00a012th rounder\u00a0Hayden Howard\u00a0<\/strong> and\u00a015th rounder\u00a0Ryan Williamson\u00a0<\/strong>signed; the signing of Howard came as somewhat of a surprise to me because he still had some eligibility. \u00a0Apologies if I forgot to update a spreadsheet or table somewhere).<\/p>\n