{"id":12813,"date":"2016-07-31T21:01:38","date_gmt":"2016-08-01T01:01:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12813"},"modified":"2016-07-31T21:01:38","modified_gmt":"2016-08-01T01:01:38","slug":"a-tale-of-three-trades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12813","title":{"rendered":"A tale of Three Trades"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_12818\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/MelanconMark-Pirates-bucsdugout.com_.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-12818\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12818\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-12818\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/MelanconMark-Pirates-bucsdugout.com_-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Melancon takes over for the beleagured Papelbon. Photo via bucsdugout.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/MelanconMark-Pirates-bucsdugout.com_-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/MelanconMark-Pirates-bucsdugout.com_-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/MelanconMark-Pirates-bucsdugout.com_-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/MelanconMark-Pirates-bucsdugout.com_.jpg 1310w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-12818\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Melancon takes over for the beleagured Papelbon. Photo via bucsdugout.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>At the trade deadline, we saw three significant closer-quality arms moved.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/C:\\Users\\tboss\\Dropbox\\z Work Files\\Fit to be Tan\\Forms\">Cubs acquire<\/a>\u00a0<strong>Aroldis Chapman<\/strong> for\u00a0<strong>Rashad Crawford, Billy McKinney, Gleyber Torres,<\/strong> and <strong>Adam Warren<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2016\/07\/nationals-to-acquire-mark-melancon.html\">Nationals acquire<\/a>\u00a0<strong>Mark Melancon<\/strong> for\u00a0<strong>Felipe Rivero<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Taylor Hearn<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2016\/07\/indians-to-acquire-andrew-miller.html\">Indians acquire<\/a>\u00a0<strong>Andrew Miller<\/strong> for\u00a0<strong>Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller<\/strong> and <strong>J.P. Feyereisen<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Chapman fetches the Cubs #1 prospect in Torres (he immediately becomes the Yankees&#8217; #1 prospect) in addition to a more marginal (but still ranked) prospect in McKinney, a lottery ticket in Crawford AND the return of their former 8th inning guy Warren. \u00a0This in return for perhaps the premier closer in the game for a 2 month rental.<\/p>\n<p>Melancon fetched a solid, young lefty reliever in Rivero (whose peripherals counter his currently poor-looking 2016 ERA) plus a 2nd tier ranked prospect in Hearn who is probably 3 years away. \u00a0This in return for 2 months of an elite but not quite as dominant closer.<\/p>\n<p>Miller fetched the Indians #1, #5, #30th ranked prospects in the Cleveland organization (including two 1st round picks) plus an org-arm. \u00a0This in return for one of the best relievers in the game for this year plus two more years at a relatively reasonable price ($9M\/per).<\/p>\n<p>Projected WAR for these three guys (using opportunistic estimates based on historical performance);<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Chapman: 0.8-1.0 bWAR for his 2 month rental (2.7 bWAR in 2015)<\/li>\n<li>Melancon: 0.6-0.7 bWAR for his 2 month rental (1.9 bWAR in 2015)<\/li>\n<li>Miller: 1.0 bWAR for his 2 month rental plus another 4.5 bWAR for 2017-2018: 5.5 bWAR total.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And then there&#8217;s the money factors and the intangibles:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Chapman: Domestic Violence suspension earlier this year. \u00a0 $4.33M of salary due this year.<\/li>\n<li>Melancon: Salary relief provided by Pittsburgh (not sure how much, but believed to be all of his 2016 salary)<\/li>\n<li>Miller: no salary relief.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Which deal do you like the most? \u00a0Miller clearly got the most in terms of value, but he also was the best positioned for the long haul. \u00a0But even at best case, Miller&#8217;s only going to return 5 and a half war over the next 3 years for Cleveland; that&#8217;s about as much bWAR as <strong>Anthony Rendon<\/strong> provided in his first big breakout season. \u00a0Chapman cost much, much more than Melancon; is he worth that much more?<\/p>\n<p>I hate to sound like a homer, but for what they sought and what they gave up, I completely prefer the Nats deal here. \u00a0We gave up none of our top tier of prospects, we didn&#8217;t take on cash, and we got precisely what we wanted (closer coverage for 2016) and nothing more. \u00a0<strong>Keith Law<\/strong> hated the deal of course, but he covets prospects and hates closers so it is no surprise. \u00a0I also kind of thought that\u00a0<strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong> would have learned his lesson after the Papelbon-<strong>Drew Storen<\/strong> nightmare (remember; he&#8217;s the same GM who flipped 2 months of a FA acquisition <strong>Matt Capps<\/strong> for years of <strong>Wilson Ramos<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At the trade deadline, we saw three significant closer-quality arms moved. Cubs acquire\u00a0Aroldis Chapman for\u00a0Rashad Crawford, Billy McKinney, Gleyber Torres, and Adam Warren. Nationals acquire\u00a0Mark Melancon for\u00a0Felipe Rivero and\u00a0Taylor Hearn. Indians acquire\u00a0Andrew Miller for\u00a0Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen. Chapman fetches the Cubs #1 prospect in Torres (he immediately becomes the Yankees&#8217; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[3281,2972,185,569,3284,3279,3282,2237,3280,3285,3283,110,662,3278,2824],"class_list":["post-12813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-warren","tag-andrew-miller","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-aroldis-chapman","tag-ben-heller","tag-billy-mckinney","tag-clint-frazier","tag-felipe-rivero","tag-gleyber-torres","tag-jp-feyereisen","tag-justus-sheffield","tag-keith-law","tag-mark-melancon","tag-rashad-crawford","tag-taylor-hearn"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12813"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12819,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12813\/revisions\/12819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}