{"id":1288,"date":"2011-05-10T11:59:06","date_gmt":"2011-05-10T15:59:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1288"},"modified":"2013-10-10T13:05:06","modified_gmt":"2013-10-10T17:05:06","slug":"age-analysis-of-all-nats-minor-league-pitchers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1288","title":{"rendered":"Age Analysis of all Nats Minor League Pitchers"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Despite being in our system for years, Ross Detwiler is still “really young” for AAA. Photo: Haraz Ghanbari\/AP via federalbaseball.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Following up on a previous post discussing the “age appropriateness<\/a>” of pitchers in the minor leagues, I thought it would be interesting to look at the pitching staffs at the Nationals various affiliates and take a look at the ages.\u00a0 NOTE<\/strong>: I did most of this analysis prior to the promotions of AJ Cole <\/strong>and Robbie Ray<\/strong> to Hagerstown.\u00a0 I’ll put in notes about them in the appropriate section.<\/p>\n

To review, based on dividing the ages of every pitcher in each league into quartiles, and then naming the quartiles, here’s our starting point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nAAA<\/td>\nAA<\/td>\nHigh-A<\/td>\nLow-A<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Really Young<\/td>\n25.22 or younger<\/td>\n24.11 or\u00a0 younger<\/td>\n22.33 or younger<\/td>\n21.56 or younger<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Young<\/td>\n25.22 – 26.61<\/td>\n24.11 – 25.05<\/td>\n22.33 – 23.50<\/td>\n21.56 – 22.52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Old<\/td>\n26.61 – 28.47<\/td>\n25.05 – 26.32<\/td>\n23.5 – 24.45<\/td>\n22.52 – 23.33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Really Old<\/td>\n28.47 or older<\/td>\n26.32 or older<\/td>\n24.45 or older<\/td>\n23.33 or older<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Here’s an affiliate-by-affiliate look at the pitching staffs, their ages and how that age is “ranked.”\u00a0 Syracuse first:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nCollin Balester<\/td>\n6\/6\/1986<\/td>\n24.91<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nAdam Carr<\/td>\n4\/1\/1984<\/td>\n27.09<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nRoss Detwiler<\/td>\n3\/6\/1986<\/td>\n25.17<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nLee Hyde<\/td>\n2\/14\/1985<\/td>\n26.22<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nCole Kimball<\/td>\n8\/1\/1985<\/td>\n25.76<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nJeff Mandel<\/td>\n4\/30\/1985<\/td>\n26.02<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nJ.D. Martin<\/td>\n1\/2\/1983<\/td>\n28.34<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nYunesky Maya<\/td>\n8\/28\/1981<\/td>\n29.69<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nBrad Meyers<\/td>\n9\/13\/1985<\/td>\n25.64<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nTom Milone<\/td>\n2\/16\/1987<\/td>\n24.22<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nGarrett Mock<\/td>\n4\/25\/1983<\/td>\n28.03<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nCraig Stammen<\/td>\n3\/9\/1984<\/td>\n27.16<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Syracuse<\/td>\nJosh Wilkie<\/td>\n7\/22\/1984<\/td>\n26.79<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Not surprisingly, several names (Martin<\/strong>, Mock<\/strong>) are included as being “old” for the level.\u00a0 Maya<\/strong> is a special case of course.\u00a0 Ironically, a lot of these players are young or really young for the level.\u00a0 Of note would be Tommy Milone<\/strong>, who is the 23rd youngest pitcher in the International league (out of 193 pitchers) and is holding his own in the rotation.\u00a0 Ironically, Ross Detwiler<\/strong> “seems” to be much older than he really is, since his name has been in the minds of Nats fans for years, but he’s still quite young even for AAA.\u00a0 Brad Meyers<\/strong> recent promotion counts him in the younger category as well, a good sign for our continued player development.<\/p>\n

Trivia: The youngest pitcher in the International League was (at the time of this analysis) Julio Teheran<\/strong>, uber-Braves prospect who turned 20 in April and is seemingly ready<\/a> for his MLB debut.\u00a0 The rich get richer.\u00a0 In fact, he did get promoted and made a start on Saturday 5\/7 for Atlanta.\u00a0 Meanwhile the oldest pitcher in the International league is Mark Hendrickson<\/strong>, who last appeared in a minor league game<\/a> in 2003.\u00a0 He didn’t make the Orioles’ roster out of spring and is trying to hang on.<\/p>\n

Here’s Harrisburg:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nErik Arnesen<\/td>\n3\/19\/1984<\/td>\n27.13<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nLuis Atilano<\/td>\n5\/10\/1985<\/td>\n25.99<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nJimmy Barthmaier<\/td>\n1\/6\/1984<\/td>\n27.33<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nMatt Chico<\/td>\n6\/10\/1983<\/td>\n27.90<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nErik Davis<\/td>\n10\/8\/1986<\/td>\n24.57<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nCarlos Martinez<\/td>\n3\/30\/1984<\/td>\n27.10<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nShairon Martis<\/td>\n3\/30\/1987<\/td>\n24.10<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nRyan Mattheus<\/td>\n11\/10\/1983<\/td>\n27.49<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nPatrick McCoy<\/td>\n8\/3\/1988<\/td>\n22.75<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nBrad Peacock<\/td>\n2\/2\/1988<\/td>\n23.26<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nHassan Pena<\/td>\n3\/25\/1985<\/td>\n26.11<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nRyan Tatusko<\/td>\n3\/27\/1985<\/td>\n26.11<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harrisburg<\/td>\nCory VanAllen<\/td>\n12\/24\/1984<\/td>\n26.36<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

What is concerning here is the number of “Really Old” pitchers we have on the staff in Harrisburg.\u00a0 Luckily they’re all relievers, not considered key prospects going forward.\u00a0 The best starter in AA (Brad Peacock<\/strong>) is quite young for the level (22nd youngest of 166 hurlers in the league).\u00a0 Other starters in Harrisburg are on the “right side” of the median, including Davis<\/strong> and Martis<\/strong>.\u00a0 Tatusko<\/strong> is getting too old for the level (hence my prediction that he’d be promoted prior to the season), and probable rotation replacement member Arneson<\/strong> is definitely too old for the level to be considered a prospect.<\/p>\n

Interesting trivia; the oldest pitcher in the Eastern league is one Kei Igawa<\/strong>, who also holds the distinction of being (in my opinion) the worst FA starting pitcher<\/a> ever signed based on dollars per win for the life of his contract plus posting fee.\u00a0 Meanwhile the youngest AA pitcher is Detroit Tiger’s 2009 1st round pick Jacob Turner<\/strong>, who is holding his own after getting drafted out of high school.<\/p>\n

Here’s Potomac:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Potomac<\/td>\nEvan Bronson<\/td>\n2\/13\/1987<\/td>\n24.22<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nMitchell Clegg<\/td>\n12\/22\/1986<\/td>\n24.37<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nPaul Demny<\/td>\n8\/3\/1989<\/td>\n21.75<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nMarcos Frias<\/td>\n12\/19\/1988<\/td>\n22.38<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nTrevor Holder<\/td>\n1\/8\/1987<\/td>\n24.32<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nPatrick Lehman<\/td>\n10\/18\/1986<\/td>\n24.55<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nAdam Olbrychowski<\/td>\n9\/7\/1986<\/td>\n24.66<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nDaniel Rosenbaum<\/td>\n10\/10\/1987<\/td>\n23.57<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nCameron Selik<\/td>\n8\/25\/1987<\/td>\n23.70<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nJosh Smoker<\/td>\n11\/26\/1988<\/td>\n22.44<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nJoe Testa<\/td>\n12\/18\/1985<\/td>\n25.38<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nDean Weaver<\/td>\n5\/17\/1988<\/td>\n22.97<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potomac<\/td>\nRob Wort<\/td>\n2\/7\/1989<\/td>\n22.24<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

By virtue of the number of college pitchers we’ve drafted in the past couple of\u00a0 years, we have a stockpile of these guys who now make our Potomac roster seem relatively old.\u00a0 Our ace in Potomac Danny Rosenbaum<\/strong> is almost exactly the median age of pitchers in his league (he’s listed as “old” but missed the cutoff by a few days).\u00a0 Same with newly promoted Cameron Selik<\/strong>, who now pitches in a league where he’s almost exactly the average age.\u00a0 Potomac’s 2nd most effective starter this season has been Paul Demny<\/strong>, who is the 15th youngest pitcher of a 112 in the league.\u00a0 Its great to see such a youngster pitching so effectively.\u00a0 Meanwhile Mitchell Clegg<\/strong> and Trevor Holder<\/strong> are relatively old for the level already and are struggling this year, a sign they may be moved to the bullpen or be defined as “non-prospects” sooner or later.<\/p>\n

Lastly, here’s Hagerstown pre Cole and Ray:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nPaul Applebee<\/td>\n5\/17\/1988<\/td>\n22.97<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nSam Brown<\/td>\n6\/10\/1987<\/td>\n23.90<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nWilson Eusebio<\/td>\n8\/20\/1988<\/td>\n22.71<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nMatthew Grace<\/td>\n12\/14\/1988<\/td>\n22.39<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nBen Graham<\/td>\n11\/23\/1987<\/td>\n23.45<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nBobby Hansen<\/td>\n12\/17\/1989<\/td>\n21.38<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nNeil Holland<\/td>\n8\/14\/1988<\/td>\n22.72<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nChad Jenkins<\/td>\n3\/12\/1988<\/td>\n23.15<\/td>\nOld<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nTaylor Jordan<\/td>\n1\/17\/1989<\/td>\n22.30<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nChristopher Manno<\/td>\n11\/4\/1988<\/td>\n22.50<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nShane McCatty<\/td>\n5\/18\/1987<\/td>\n23.97<\/td>\nReally Old<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nChristopher McKenzie<\/td>\n12\/6\/1989<\/td>\n21.41<\/td>\nReally Young<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hagerstown<\/td>\nMatt Swynenberg<\/td>\n2\/16\/1989<\/td>\n22.21<\/td>\nYoung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

All things considered, we’re fielding a relatively young-for-the-level pitching staff in Hagerstown.\u00a0 The two youngest starters (Bobby Hansen<\/strong> and Chris McKenzie<\/strong>) are right at the 25th percentile cusp (so they’re still young for the league but not amazingly so).\u00a0 That being said, Hansen is probably Hagerstown’s 2nd most effective starter after Taylor Jordan<\/strong>, and they’re both young for the league.\u00a0 Even the two oldest starters in Hagerstown (Matt Grace<\/strong> and Paul Applebee<\/strong>) are both right around the median age for pitchers in the league.\u00a0 Selik was very old for the league before earning his promotion, possibly a sign that his age allowed him to dominate younger guys.\u00a0 Only the bullpen guys are “old” or “really old” for the league, and even they are not “overly” old.<\/p>\n

AJ Cole<\/strong> and Robbie Ray<\/strong>, named to the team over the weekend, become the 3rd and 6th youngest pitchers in the league.\u00a0 This is all the more interesting considering Ray’s sterling 5\/9 debut<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n

The younger guys we have in Syracause are for the most part the prospects; the older guys are mostly organizational arms not likely to feature in the majors.\u00a0 We are definitely “old” in both Harrisburg and Potomac, all the more concerning since both staffs are struggling.\u00a0 I like how young we are in Hagerstown, considering just how well that team is playing (19-10, 1\/2 game out of first having played a ton of away games so far).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Following up on a previous post discussing the “age appropriateness” of pitchers in the minor leagues, I thought it would be interesting to look at the pitching staffs at the Nationals various affiliates and take a look at the ages.\u00a0 NOTE: I did most of this analysis prior to the promotions of AJ Cole and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[17,23,72,35,20,920,851,75,61,90,1458,99,1913,763,1457,1228,58,27,57,18,51,73,76,24,34,55,883],"class_list":["post-1288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-minorspitching","tag-aj-cole","tag-bobby-hansen","tag-brad-meyers","tag-brad-peacock","tag-cameron-selik","tag-chris-mckenzie","tag-danny-rosenbaum","tag-erik-arneson","tag-erik-davis","tag-garrett-mock","tag-jacob-turner","tag-jd-martin","tag-julio-teheran","tag-kei-igawa","tag-mark-hendrickson","tag-matt-grace","tag-mitchell-clegg","tag-paul-applebee","tag-paul-demny","tag-robbie-ray","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ryan-tatusko","tag-shairon-martis","tag-taylor-jordan","tag-tommy-milone","tag-trevor-holder","tag-yunesky-maya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1288"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1288\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7929,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1288\/revisions\/7929"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}