{"id":12929,"date":"2016-09-30T12:19:51","date_gmt":"2016-09-30T16:19:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12929"},"modified":"2016-09-30T13:23:03","modified_gmt":"2016-09-30T17:23:03","slug":"post-season-pitching-staff-who-should-it-be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12929","title":{"rendered":"Post-Season pitching Staff; who should it be?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Gonzalez<\/a>

Gonzalez is key in the NLDS. Photo via Wikipedia\/Flickr from user muohace_dc<\/p><\/div>\n

As requested in the comments, here’s a good thread to argue about and attempt to read the tea leaves as to what the team will do for its upcoming divisional series against Los Angeles.<\/p>\n

A quick note before starting: the Dodgers are literally dead last<\/a> in the majors against lefties as a team. \u00a0 The have a team BA of .216 against all lefties, which is 15 points lower than the 29th ranked team. \u00a0They have a 75 wRC+ against lefties and a .634 OPS figure as a team \u00a0… by way of comparison,\u00a0Michael Taylor<\/strong> has an OPS figure of .648 for the 2016 season. \u00a0So the Dodgers hit lefties kinda like Taylor hits pitching in general. \u00a0I only mention this because, while I knew the Dodgers were “bad” against lefties, I didn’t know they were this bad.<\/p>\n

So, common sense may seem to indicate that the team would know an important fact like this and either a) plan their rotation accordingly, and b) plan their bullpen accordingly. \u00a0But, we are talking about a team managed by\u00a0Dusty Baker<\/strong>, and I’m not sure he’ll have it in him to perhaps consider using\u00a0Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> in this fashion.<\/p>\n

So, that being said, here’s what I think will happen with the rotation and bullpen, based on what we’ve been seeing the last few weeks. \u00a0(Btw, i am assuming that the Nats don’t blow home field advantage this weekend and the first two games are in DC … which may be a bad assumption but I can’t see them losing 2 of 3 to the unfortunately reeling Marlins)<\/p>\n

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Rotation<\/span><\/strong> goes (and this isn’t much of a surprise): Scherzer, Roark, Gonzalez, Ross<\/strong><\/p>\n

Discussion: Scherzer is scheduled to throw Sunday 10\/2 in the final game of the season, giving him normal 4 days rest before the first game of the NLDS (here’s the MLB 2016 post-season schedule<\/a>). \u00a0Past that, i’m guessing that Baker will re-arrange the rotation based on performance and not the current order\u00a0since everyone will have plenty of rest by the time the NLDS rolls around. \u00a0Assuming that the final three games feature the expected probables of\u00a0A.J. Cole<\/strong> tonight,\u00a0Tanner Roark<\/strong> tomorrow 10\/1 and Scherzer, then Roark would be on five days of rest for the NLDS game 2.<\/p>\n

Gonzalez then goes in Game 3, in LA. \u00a0Is that bad? \u00a0Maybe not; in 2016 his home\/away splits<\/a> are nearly identical; he’s been not good no matter where he pitches.<\/p>\n

Game 4 is where we think\u00a0Joe Ross<\/strong> goes 100 pitches or so, which might get him to the 5th inning, and then we see\u00a0Reynaldo Lopez<\/strong> in a “once through the order” bridge to the back end of the bullpen. \u00a0Ross seems like he has gotten back to the point where he can go.<\/p>\n

This leaves the likes of\u00a0Mat Latos<\/strong>,\u00a0A.J. Cole<\/strong> and\u00a0Lucas Giolito<\/strong> off the post-season roster. \u00a0None has really merited inclusion.<\/p>\n

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Bullpen<\/strong><\/span> goes (and this is where I’m sure there’s some disagreement):\u00a0Melancon, Kelley, Treinen, Belisle, Perez*, Rzepczynski*, Solis*<\/strong><\/p>\n

This means we’re leaving off:<\/p>\n