{"id":12943,"date":"2016-10-03T11:22:24","date_gmt":"2016-10-03T15:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12943"},"modified":"2016-10-03T11:22:24","modified_gmt":"2016-10-03T15:22:24","slug":"nats-2016-minor-league-players-of-the-year-do-they-matter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12943","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2016 Minor League Players of the year; do they matter?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_12840\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/LopezReynaldo-via-wp-Mitchell-Layton-getty-images.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-12840\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12840\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-12840\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/LopezReynaldo-via-wp-Mitchell-Layton-getty-images-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Lopez 2016 Nats minor league pitcher of the year; will it matter? Photo via wp.com\/Mitchell Layton getty images\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/LopezReynaldo-via-wp-Mitchell-Layton-getty-images-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/LopezReynaldo-via-wp-Mitchell-Layton-getty-images.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-12840\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Lopez 2016 Nats minor league pitcher of the year; will it matter? Photo via wp.com\/Mitchell Layton getty images<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The Nats recently announced their <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalbaseball.com\/2016\/9\/30\/13124862\/nationals-name-jose-marmolejos-their-minor-league-player-reynaldo-lopez-pitcher-of-the-year\">2016 Minor League Players of the Year<\/a>, and then <a href=\"http:\/\/m.nationals.mlb.com\/news\/article\/204437710\/nationals-honor-top-minor-league-players\/\">recognized them<\/a> along with GCL MVP\u00a0<strong>Juan Soto<\/strong> over the weekend.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rafael Bautista, Reynaldo Lopez, Jose Marmolejos-Diaz<\/strong> and Juan Soto, who all hail from the Dominican Republic and represent the best evidence of the Nats long awaited &#8220;rebirth&#8221; in that market, were all recognized. \u00a0And that&#8217;s great.<\/p>\n<p>But how have the Nats Minor League Players of the Year fared in terms of eventual career accomplishment? \u00a0Is this achievement a good precursor for MLB success? \u00a0Lets dig deeper.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a list of the Nats declared prospects of the year (i&#8217;ve gone back beyond the Nats time in DC since prospects lag in terms of their arrival), along with some quick commentary on where they&#8217;ve gone:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2016: <strong>Jose Marmelejos-Diaz, Reynaldo Lopez<\/strong>: Lopez had some impact at the MLB level in his first shot, may factor into the post-season bullpen, but is looking at AAA next year unless an injury or trade occurs. \u00a0Marmeloejos-Diaz is still too young to pass judgement. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: too early to tell obviously; Is Lopez going to be an effective mid-rotation starter or (as some pundits believe) is he going to end up being more effective in the bullpen?<\/li>\n<li>2015: <strong>Jose Marmelejos-Diaz, Austin Voth<\/strong>: Voth had a solid AAA season in 2016, but was (somewhat surprisingly) not called up on 9\/1 despite facing Rule-5 protection this coming off-season. \u00a0Has he peaked? \u00a0Was he left off of the 40-man for strategic (i.e. trade bait) purposes? \u00a0 He&#8217;s clearly behind three other AAA guys on the depth chart right now with a full MLB roster; what does his future hold? \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: too early but concerns about Voth&#8217;s role going forward.<\/li>\n<li>2014: <strong>Steven Souza, Lucas Giolito<\/strong>: Souza famously netted the team both\u00a0<strong>Trea Turner<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Joe Ross<\/strong> in trade, but has been an injury prone 1-win\/year player for Tampa Bay ever since (total bWAR for Tampa: 1.9 in two seasons). \u00a0Giolito&#8217;s jury is still out; despite his lofty prospect status he struggled on the big stage in 2016 amid reports of mechanical tweaks and struggles. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: early on Giolito, Souza might be who he is.<\/li>\n<li>2013: <strong>Billy Burns, Taylor Jordan<\/strong>: Burns netted the team\u00a0<strong>Jerry Blevins<\/strong> in trade and then had one decent season with Oakland (a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/burnsbi02.shtml\">2.8 bWAR season in 2015<\/a>\u00a0that may have had the Nats with trader&#8217;s remorse. \u00a0However, he struggled badly in 2016, was traded, was sent to the minors, and may not be much more than a defensive outfield bench player. \u00a0Jordan had 9 promising starts in 2013, then struggled in spot starts in 2014, blew out his elbow, came back, struggled again in 2015 spot starts, blew out his elbow again this year and was summarily released. \u00a0He may struggle to find a team willing to give a 4-A pitcher on his third elbow a shot going forward. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: one may be done, one may be a 4th outfielder at best.<\/li>\n<li>2012: <strong>Nathan Karns, Matt Skole<\/strong>: Karns was a lower-round draft pick with an injury history the Nats took a chance on and he shot through the system, taking just a season and a half to rise from low-A. \u00a0The team capitalized on his promise and flipped him for three role players (<strong>Jose Lobaton<\/strong>,\u00a0<strong>Felipe Rivero<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Drew Vettleson<\/strong>). \u00a0Since, Karns got flipped to Seattle, struggled early and has missed most of 2016 with a back strain. \u00a0Skole is a polarizing figure amongst readers here; to me\u00a0he is a 27yr old AAA power-only hitter who has had three consecutive NRI to spring training (so its not as if the MLB squad doesn&#8217;t know who he is). \u00a0He&#8217;s at the end of his string with the Nats and likely moves elsewhere as a MLFA for next year. \u00a0I wish he turned out better; after his fantastic 2012 season an unfortunate injury cost him all of 2013 and he really seems like he&#8217;s been playing catchup since. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: Karns may turn out to be more than he&#8217;s shown, but Skole is a\u00a06-year MLFA.<\/li>\n<li>2011: <strong>Steve Lombardozzi, Brad Peacock<\/strong>: Lombardozzi made the majors as a 19th round pick (quite the rarity; it usually only happens 2-3 times per draft class), got traded in the\u00a0<strong>Doug Fister<\/strong> deal, got traded again, then released, then picked up by Baltimore, then released again and found himself playing indy ball after getting cut by the Chicago White Sox this past spring. \u00a0The Nats picked him up for their AAA team but he possesses a negative bWAR career value as a backup utility player. \u00a0Peacock (not unlike Karns) had a brief debut with the Nats before getting used in trade to acquire others (in his case, going to Oakland as part of the\u00a0<strong>Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> deal). \u00a0Oakland flipped him to Houston, where he struggled as a starter in 2014 and has been basically a 4-A taxi squad member between their AAA team and their bullpen. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: both guys ended up better AAA players than MLB players.<\/li>\n<li>2010: <strong>Tyler Moore, Tommy Milone<\/strong>: Moore matriculated to the majors and had a fantastic 2012 off the bench (123 OPS+) &#8230; and then never matched it. \u00a0The Nats traded him for\u00a0<strong>Nate Freiman<\/strong> in a &#8220;moving the deck chairs&#8221; trade with Atlanta, and Moore spent most of 2016 off a 40-man and on the D\/L. \u00a0Milone, like Karns and Peacock after\u00a0him, had a brief and exciting debut with the MLB club before being used as trade fodder for others (he was also in the Gonzalez trade). \u00a0He excelled in Oakland&#8217;s big park and was then flipped for\u00a0<strong>Sam Fuld<\/strong> to the Twins. \u00a0He&#8217;s been less successful with Minnesota, getting dumped out of the rotation in 2016 and posting a 5+ ERA this year for baseball&#8217;s worst team. \u00a0He may be a non-tender candidate and could be on the move again this winter. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: At best a 4-A slugger and a 6th starter.<\/li>\n<li>2009: <strong>Derek Norris, Brad Meyers<\/strong>: Is it interesting that three Nats Minor league players of the year were all included in the same trade? \u00a0Norris was a centerpiece of the Gonzalez deal while still relatively a young minor leaguer; he peaked as an All Star in 2014 for Oakland before getting moved to San Diego in the\u00a0<strong>Jesse Hahn<\/strong> deal. \u00a0He&#8217;s struggled in San Diego, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/n\/norride01.shtml\">hitting just .186 this year<\/a>. \u00a0Meyers&#8217; career is an injury plagued shame; after a fantastic 2009 he started 2010 just as well before getting hurt. \u00a0He returned and had a solid 2011 in AA and AAA but was taken in Rule5 by the Yankees. \u00a0He missed basically all of 2012 with injury and was returned as damaged goods, an injury that cost him all of 2013. \u00a0By the time he made it back in 2014, he just had nothing left; after 6 starts in Harrisburg the team released him. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: At least a backup catcher in the majors and an asterick due to injury.<\/li>\n<li>2008: <strong>Leonard Davis, Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong>: Davis was named the hitter of the year on the back of a solid year at Potomac &#8230; when he was 24 and a year and a half older than the league. \u00a0He kept climbing the ranks, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.cgi?id=davis-003leo\">hit .250 in Syracuse in 2011<\/a> but never got a shot in the majors. \u00a0He bounced around indy ball\u00a0for a copule of years but retired in 2013. \u00a0 Zimmermann is what we all know him to be: a 9-figure starter and easily the most successful player on this list .. which, not to bury the lede this early, is kind of the point of this article. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: a AA washout and a #2 starter in the majors.<\/li>\n<li>2007: <strong>Justin Maxwell, John Lannan<\/strong>: Maxwell toiled for years as a 4th OF for the Nats in their dark times before getting flipped for a middle reliever in\u00a0<strong>Adam\u00a0<\/strong><strong>Olbrychowski<\/strong>. \u00a0That started his itinerant career, playing for Houston, Kansas City, San Francisco and most recently Boston&#8217;s AAA team. \u00a0He has now decamped for Korea. \u00a0For his career he has a bWAR figure of 2.9, 2.4 of which came in his best season in Houston. \u00a0Lannan famously went from Nats opening day starter and Ace during the &#8220;down years&#8221; to AAA insurance policy in 2012. \u00a0After getting mercifully non-tendered in 2012, he played for two different NL East rivals in 2013-2014, and has pitched full AAA seasons in the PCL the last two years. \u00a07.1 career bWAR, most of which was earned during his first two full seasons starting for the awful 2008 and 2009 Nats. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: two MLB players, both of which had limited impact in their careers.<\/li>\n<li>2006: <strong>Kory Casto, Zech Zinicola<\/strong>: Casto was a long-time Nats farmhand favorite, progressing slowly one level a \u00a0year and always producing. \u00a0He finally made the majors in 2007 but struggled in parts of two seasons and was outrighted off the 40-man after 2009. \u00a0He elected FA, bounced around two organizations in 2010 before retiring in July of that \u00a0year. \u00a0Zincola won the Nats minor league pitcher of the year in a \u00a0year when he threw just 32 innings as a closer, an indication of how bad our farm system was in the early years. \u00a0He played for years in the Nats system, never making the majors, but interestingly played a full season this year with the independent Sugar Land Skeeters. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: essentially two career minor leaguers.<\/li>\n<li>2005: <strong>Kory Casto, Mike O&#8217;Conner<\/strong>: O&#8217;Conner became just the second pitcher in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/schools\/index.cgi?key_school=26ee3037\">history of George Washington baseball<\/a> to make the majors (the first being a guy from the 1920s who had exactly one career IP). \u00a0He gave the team 20 starts in 2006 and then had a grand total of 15 MLB innings thereafter, toiling for years in AAA. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>:\u00a0as with Casto, essentially a career minor leaguer.<\/li>\n<li>2004: <strong>Ryan Church<\/strong>: a late bloomer who won the Nats minor league player of the year the year he was acquired by destroying Edmonton before getting called up. \u00a0 By 2007 he was a solid contributor for the Nats and looked like a viable RF option for a few \u00a0years. \u00a0He got flipped to the Mets in\u00a0<strong>Jim Bowden<\/strong>&#8216;s ill-fated trade\u00a0for the &#8220;toolsy&#8221;\u00a0<strong>Lastings Milledge<\/strong> not uncoincidentally just before his first arbitration pay day, played there halfway decently for a year and a half before getting moved to Atlanta. \u00a0 He signed as a FA in Pittsburgh and struggled badly, and 2010 was his last year in the big leagues. \u00a0Total career bWAR: 9.1, most of it in the three solid years he gave the Nats. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: a MLB regular for a handful of seasons.<\/li>\n<li>2003: <strong>Terrmel Sledge<\/strong>: Sledge won the Expos minor league award after an excellent year in AAA Edmonton. \u00a0 He was solid in 2004 for the big league club but then barely played in 2005 thanks to injury. \u00a0That off-season he was flipped in the\u00a0<strong>Alfonso Soriano<\/strong> deal, traded to San Diego a few weeks later, played two non-descript seasons there and then played 5 years in Japan, retiring after the 2012 season at the age of 35. \u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Verdict<\/span><\/strong>: essentially a 4-A player.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/span>: 13 years of the franchise naming minor league players of the year (24 total guys) has produced:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>One legitimate MLB star (Zimmermann)<\/li>\n<li>6 slightly better than replacement Major leaguers: Souza, Milone, Karns, Norris, Lannan, Church<\/li>\n<li>9\u00a0basically 4-A players: Burns, Jordan, Lombardozzi, Peacock, Moore, Maxwell, Casto, O&#8217;Conner, Sledge<\/li>\n<li>4 guys who never made the majors: Skole (as of yet), Meyers, Davis, Zinicola<\/li>\n<li>4 guys who its too early to tell:\u00a0Marmelejos-Diaz, Lopez, Voth, Giolito<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Not a great track record. \u00a0Lots of this is squarely on the shoulders of the early state of the farm system; fair enough. \u00a0 Its also wise to note that none of the main\u00a0home-grown stars that the team as developed over the years appears on this list; No Zimmerman, Harper, Strasburg, Rendon, Storen, Cole, Solis, Ray, Espinosa, etc. \u00a0That&#8217;s because these guys either raced through the minors or just never shined brightly enough at a particular level to earn the award.<\/p>\n<p>Also interesting; look how many of these guys got flipped soon after their being named our POTY: Norris, Milone, Peacock, Karns, Burns, Souza. \u00a0Its almost as if the team is trading high on more marginal prospects thanks to their POTY status. \u00a0Look at the return in each of these deals; it seems like the Nats &#8220;won&#8221; the trade nearly every time.<\/p>\n<p>Another interesting\u00a0side note; while doing this I noticed that no less than four guys from the 2007 draft are on this list: Zimmermann (2nd), Souza (3rd), Norris (4th) and Meyers (5th). \u00a0That draft also included future big leagers in Detwiler (1st), Smoker (1st-supp) and Smolinksi (2nd). \u00a0and McCoy (10th). \u00a0That&#8217;s a heck of a draft; all due credit.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Nats recently announced their 2016 Minor League Players of the Year, and then recognized them along with GCL MVP\u00a0Juan Soto over the weekend. Rafael Bautista, Reynaldo Lopez, Jose Marmolejos-Diaz and Juan Soto, who all hail from the Dominican Republic and represent the best evidence of the Nats long awaited &#8220;rebirth&#8221; in that market, were [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[59,130,1815,2124,72,35,369,241,2236,2237,385,2123,2709,507,2691,39,43,2239,2994,3314,915,2180,491,2610,852,733,2611,3315,196,2758,1875,829,3316,142,1328,24,2612,34,2426,235,3317],"class_list":["post-12943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-olbrychowski","tag-alfonso-soriano","tag-austin-voth","tag-billy-burns","tag-brad-meyers","tag-brad-peacock","tag-derek-norris","tag-doug-fister","tag-drew-vettleson","tag-felipe-rivero","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-jerry-blevins","tag-jesse-hahn","tag-jim-bowden","tag-joe-ross","tag-john-lannan","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-jose-lobaton","tag-jose-marmolejos-diaz","tag-juan-soto","tag-justin-maxwell","tag-kory-casto","tag-lastings-milledge","tag-leonard-davis","tag-lucas-giolito","tag-matt-skole","tag-mike-oconner","tag-nate-freiman","tag-nathan-karns","tag-rafael-bautista","tag-reynaldo-lopez","tag-ryan-church","tag-sam-fuld","tag-steve-lombardozzi","tag-steven-souza","tag-taylor-jordan","tag-terrmel-sledge","tag-tommy-milone","tag-trea-turner","tag-tyler-moore","tag-zech-zinocola"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12943"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12943\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12954,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12943\/revisions\/12954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}