{"id":13375,"date":"2017-02-08T14:48:39","date_gmt":"2017-02-08T19:48:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=13375"},"modified":"2017-02-08T14:48:39","modified_gmt":"2017-02-08T19:48:39","slug":"qualifying-offer-wrap-up-for-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=13375","title":{"rendered":"Qualifying Offer Wrap-up for 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_13397\" style=\"width: 269px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/cespedesyoenishrderby-via-getty.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-13397\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-13397\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13397\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/cespedesyoenishrderby-via-getty.jpg\" alt=\"Cespedes was the only major QO winner this off-season.  Photo via Business Insider\" width=\"259\" height=\"194\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-13397\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cespedes was the only major QO winner this off-season. Photo via Business Insider<\/p><\/div>\n<p>While we bide our time for the opening of Spring Training, I thought I&#8217;d wrap up some off-season posts in draft mode&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Every year since its inception i&#8217;ve done a &#8220;Qualifying Offer&#8221; wrap-up post (henceforth referred to as QO), as a way to provide some analysis of this salary-limiting vehicle that was such a major point of negotiations in the latest CBA. \u00a0It has been markedly changed for the coming years, changed in a way that favors the players and penalizes the smaller market teams &#8220;less&#8221; than the larger market teams.<\/p>\n<p>This off-season just 10 players took the Qualifying Offer, as compared to 20 the year before. \u00a0Here&#8217;s a summary table of those players:<\/p>\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-24\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-24\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\">Year<\/th><th class=\"column-2\">Player<\/th><th class=\"column-3\">Old Team<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">Previous Contract AAV<\/th><th class=\"column-5\">New Team<\/th><th class=\"column-6\">New contract AAV<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Yoenis Cespedes<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">New York Mets<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">27.5M<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">New York Mets<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$27.5M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Dexter Fowler<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Chicago Cubs<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">13M<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">St. Louis<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$16.4M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Justin Turner<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Los Angeles Dodgers<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">5.1M<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Los Angeles Dodgers<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$16M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Edwin Encarnacio<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Toronto<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">9.75M<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Cleveland<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$20M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Neil Walker<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">New York Mets<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">10.55M<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">New York Mets<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$17.2M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-7\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Kenley Jansen<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Los Angeles Dodgers<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">10.65<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Los Angeles Dodgers<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$16M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-8\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Ian Desmond<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Texas<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">8m<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Colorado<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$14M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-9\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Jeremy Hellickson<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Philadelphia<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">7m<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Philadelphia<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$17.2M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-10\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Jose Bautista<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Toronto<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">13.16M<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Toronto<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$18M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-11\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">2016<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Mark Trumbo<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">Baltimore<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">9.15M<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">Baltimore<\/td><td class=\"column-6\">$12.5M<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-24 from cache -->\n<p>Here&#8217;s a <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/17YrmtRVsAcLiak3nxQrjuBTvcJ0HXNfCqI5dhVXvY0U\/edit?usp=sharing\">link to my full QO worksheet<\/a>, with more fields, more contract details and a history of all QO players dating to 2012.<\/p>\n<p>High-level Summary of the QOs:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>5 of the 10 players ended up re-signing with their old team.<\/li>\n<li>2 of the 10 players took the QO that was offered and will play on a one-year, $17.2M deal in 2017.<\/li>\n<li>Just 3 of the 10 signed with other teams and cost those teams a draft pick.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Compare those results to 2015&#8217;s crop of 20 QO offered players:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>6 of the 20 re-signed<\/li>\n<li>3 of the 20 took the QO; the first three to do so in the history of the system<\/li>\n<li>11 of the 20 cost teams draft picks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here&#8217;s some other observations of this past year&#8217;s crop of players:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>5 of the 10 ended up taking a lesser AAV on their next contract than the $17.2M one-year deal on the table when they were offered the QO.<\/li>\n<li>However, only 2 of the 10 I&#8217;d say were &#8220;screwed&#8221; by the QO:\u00a0<strong>Jose Bautista<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Mark Trumbo<\/strong>. \u00a0Bautista kind of mis-read the FA landscape and declined multi year deals before scurrying back to Toronto on a one-year $18M deal that probably was a &#8220;saving face&#8221; contract from Toronto to one of its best stars. \u00a0Trumbo was the last man standing and took nearly $5M less in AAV to sign a 3 year extension; the modern game just does not rate aging sluggers with 30% whiff rates who are defensively limited.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ian Desmond<\/strong>, as has been frequently reported, took the most inexplicable contract of the past few years, but despite taking more than $3M\/year less in AAV than the QO you cannot say that his new contract is anything but a win for him and his family. \u00a0$70M guaranteed drastically shortchanges what he allegedly turned down from the Nats (and, boy did the Nats dodge a bullet by not committing to Desmond for 7 years).<\/li>\n<li>I kinda couldn&#8217;t believe that Philly extended the QO to\u00a0<strong>Jeremy Hellickson<\/strong>. \u00a0Maybe they&#8217;ll flip him at the deadline for prospects.<\/li>\n<li>The teams who offered QOs to players this year reads like a list of the major market teams: Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, Texas, Philadelphia and Baltimore. \u00a0Among those teams only Baltimore is not immediately considered a major market team &#8230; but they should be (they were the #1 payroll team in the majors in the 1990s; the were the Yankees before the \u00a0Yankees became the \u00a0Yankees).<\/li>\n<li>The 3 teams who forfeited 1st round picks: Colorado, Cleveland and St. Louis. \u00a0All three smaller market teams.<\/li>\n<li>The 3 teams who gained add&#8217;l picks: Chicago Cubs, Toronto and Texas. \u00a0All three major market teams.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The last two statements together perfectly encapsulate why this system no longer worked. \u00a0I&#8217;m glad to see its impact lessened, and I&#8217;m sure the players are too. \u00a0They gave up way too much in the CBA negotiations to secure it, but that&#8217;s a problem for the next CBA.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While we bide our time for the opening of Spring Training, I thought I&#8217;d wrap up some off-season posts in draft mode&#8230; Every year since its inception i&#8217;ve done a &#8220;Qualifying Offer&#8221; wrap-up post (henceforth referred to as QO), as a way to provide some analysis of this salary-limiting vehicle that was such a major [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[114,239,404,409],"class_list":["post-13375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nonnatsbaseball","tag-ian-desmond","tag-jeremy-hellickson","tag-jose-bautista","tag-mark-trumbo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13375"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13375\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13420,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13375\/revisions\/13420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}