{"id":13381,"date":"2017-02-02T15:16:13","date_gmt":"2017-02-02T20:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=13381"},"modified":"2017-02-02T15:16:13","modified_gmt":"2017-02-02T20:16:13","slug":"2017-mlb-rotation-rankings-1-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=13381","title":{"rendered":"2017 MLB Rotation Rankings 1-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Lester:<\/a>

Lester: the best pitcher on the best rotation heading into 2017. photo via Grantland<\/p><\/div>\n

Even though there’s still about 20 “starting pitchers” still on the FA market, none of them really project as anything more than a 5th starter competition or a MLFA signing at this point in the off-season, so I thought it was high time to break out my 2017 Rotation Rankings. \u00a0(Here’s a link to last year’s rankings<\/a>)<\/p>\n

This is not a ranking of 2017 projected performance, nor a WAR ranking from last year, nor anything statistical in nature. \u00a0This is me looking at individual players and gauging the overall “strength” of the rotation, with subjective rankings then applied. \u00a0This is also a lot of me asking, “Who would I rather have as a fan?” type questions; would your rather have Chicago’s 1-2-3 or New Yorks? \u00a0 This starts with the identification of the roughly 20 or so best pitchers in the league right now, calling them “Aces,” then looking at those who are just a notch below an Ace, and going on down in order to think about the overall strength of a rotation. \u00a0There’s plenty to argue about; for example I absolutely classify\u00a0Stephen Strasburg<\/strong> as an “Ace” in this analysis; his performance over the last 5-6 years by nearly any measure statistically easily ranks him in the top 10-15 arms in the league even if he’s never sniffed a Cy Young award thanks to his injuries. \u00a0But injuries factor in: I no longer classify\u00a0Matt Harvey<\/strong> as an Ace thanks to his 2016 season. \u00a0Feel free to dispute\/argue about individual opinions\/rankings in the comments.<\/p>\n

Here’s my master rankings table just showing the projected rotations. \u00a0In this Google Docs link<\/a> i’ve got my full working file, color coded for Aces\/#2s\/#3s as well as 6th starter\/long man depth identified plus some minor league depth. \u00a0Also identified are 2017 acquisitions to get a sense of the rotation turnover. \u00a0If you can read the Google XLS it may be easier than reading the table below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Team<\/th>Rotation Rank<\/th>#1<\/th>#2<\/th>#3<\/th>#4<\/th>#5<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Chicago Cubs<\/td>1<\/td>Jon Lester<\/td>\tJake Arrieta<\/td>\tKyle Hendricks<\/td>\tJohn Lackey<\/td>Mike Montgomery<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New York Mets<\/td>2<\/td>\tNoah Syndergaard<\/td>\tJacob deGrom<\/td>Matt Harvey<\/td>\tSteven Matz<\/td>Zach Wheeler<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Boston<\/td>3<\/td>Chris Sale<\/td>David Price<\/td>\tRick Porcello<\/td>Steven Wright<\/td>Drew Pomeranz<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Los Angeles Dodgers<\/td>4<\/td>\tClayton Kershaw<\/td>Rich Hill<\/td>Kenta Maeda<\/td>Julio Urias<\/td>Scott Kazmir<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Washington<\/td>5<\/td>Max Scherzer<\/td>Stephen Strasburg<\/td>Tanner Roark<\/td>Joe Ross<\/td>Gio Gonzalez<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cleveland<\/td>6<\/td>Corey Kluber<\/td>\tCarlos Carrasco<\/td>\tDanny Salazar<\/td>\tTrevor Bauer<\/td>Josh Tomlin<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Detroit<\/td>7<\/td>Justin Verlander<\/td>Michael Fulmer<\/td>Jordan Zimmermann<\/td>\tAnibal Sanchez<\/td>\tDaniel Norris<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toronto<\/td>8<\/td>\tMarcus Stroman<\/td>Aaron Sanchez<\/td>\tMarco Estrada<\/td>\tJ.A. Happ<\/td>Francisco Liriano<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
St. Louis<\/td>9<\/td>Adam Wainwright<\/td>\tCarlos Martinez<\/td>\tMichael Wacha<\/td>Lance Lynn<\/td>Mike Leake<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Francisco<\/td>10<\/td>Madison Bumgarner<\/td>Johnny Cueto<\/td>\tJeff Samardzija<\/td>Matt Moore<\/td>\tMatt Cain<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pittsburgh<\/td>11<\/td>\tGerrit Cole<\/td>Jamison Taillon<\/td>Tyler Glasnow<\/td>Steven Brault<\/td>Ivan Nova<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tampa Bay<\/td>12<\/td>\tChris Archer<\/td>\tJake Odorizzi<\/td>Alex Cobb<\/td>Blake Snell<\/td>Matt Andriese<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arizona<\/td>13<\/td>\tZack Greinke<\/td>\tRobbie Ray<\/td>Shelby Miller<\/td>Taijan Walker<\/td>Patrick Corbin<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Texas<\/td>14<\/td>Cole Hamels<\/td>Yu Darvish<\/td>\tMartin Perez<\/td>Andrew Cashner<\/td>A.J. Griffen<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Houston<\/td>15<\/td>Dallas Keuchel<\/td>\tCollin McHugh<\/td>\tLance McCullers<\/td>Charlie Morton<\/td>Mike Fiers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Seattle<\/td>16<\/td>Felix Hernandez<\/td>\tHisashi Iwakuma<\/td>\tDrew Smyly<\/td>James Paxton<\/td>\tYovani Gallardo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Chicago White Sox<\/td>17<\/td>\tJose Quintana<\/td>\tCarlos Rodon<\/td>Miguel Gonzalez<\/td>James Shields<\/td>Derek Holland<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New York Yankees<\/td>18<\/td>Masahiro Tanaka<\/td>\tMichael Pineda<\/td>\tCC Sabathia<\/td>Chad Green<\/td>Luis Severino<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Baltimore<\/td>19<\/td>\tChris Tillman<\/td>\tKevin Gausman<\/td>Dylan Bundy<\/td>\tUbaldo Jimenez<\/td>Wade Miley<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Philadelphia<\/td>20<\/td>\tAaron Nola<\/td>\tJeremy Hellickson<\/td>Jerad Eickhoff<\/td>Vincent Velasquez<\/td>Alec Asher<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Atlanta<\/td>21<\/td>Julio Teheran<\/td>\tBartolo Colon<\/td>\tJaime Garcia<\/td>\tR.A. Dickey<\/td>Mike Foltynewicz<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kansas City<\/td>22<\/td>Ian Kennedy<\/td>\tDanny Duffy<\/td>\tJason Vargas<\/td>\tNate Karns<\/td>Matt Strahm<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Miami<\/td>23<\/td>Wei-Yin Chen<\/td>\tEdinson Volquez<\/td>Dan Straily<\/td>\tTom Koehler<\/td>Jeff Locke<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Minnesota<\/td>24<\/td>\tErvin Santana<\/td>Hector Santiago<\/td>\tKyle Gibson<\/td>Phil Hughes<\/td> Jose Berrios<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oakland<\/td>25<\/td>Sonny Gray<\/td>Sean Manaea<\/td>\tKendall Graveman<\/td>Andrew Triggs<\/td>Jharel Cotton<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Colorado<\/td>26<\/td>Jon Grey<\/td>\tChad Bettis<\/td>Tyler Anderson<\/td>Tyler Chatwood<\/td>Jeff Hoffman<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Los Angeles Angels<\/td>27<\/td>\tGarrett Richards<\/td>Ricky Nolasco<\/td>\tMatt Shoemaker<\/td>\tTyler Skagg<\/td>Jesse Chavez<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cincinnati<\/td>28<\/td>\tHomer Bailey<\/td>Anthony DeSclafani<\/td>Brandon Finnegan<\/td>Robert Stephenson<\/td>Scott Feldman<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Milwaukee<\/td>29<\/td>\tMatt Garza<\/td>\tChase Anderson<\/td>Zach Davies<\/td>\tWily Peralta<\/td>Junior Guerra<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
San Diego<\/td>30<\/td>Luis Perdomo<\/td>Christian Frederich<\/td>Paul Clemens<\/td>Jarred Cosart<\/td>Cesar Vargas<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

Discussion; i’ll take the discussion in rough groups.<\/p>\n

Top 5:<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0I have the Chicago Cubs, NY\u00a0Mets, Boston, LA Dodgers and then the Nats. \u00a0Why?<\/p>\n

Well, if Harvey was healthier i’d still have the Mets #1 as I did last year. \u00a0I still think the Mets 1-2 punch of deGrom<\/strong> and\u00a0Snydergaard<\/strong>\u00a0is better than anyone elses. \u00a0If Harvey<\/strong> returns to form and Matz<\/strong> stays healthy, the Nats may be in trouble in 2017. \u00a0But those are huge what-ifs, enough to knock the Mets below Chicago for now. \u00a0The Cubs for me have two Aces who just finished 2nd and 3rd in Cy Young voting while their #3 just posted a 2.13 ERA. \u00a0 And if their planned #5 doesn’t pan out, they have the prospect depth to make a move and acquire what they need. \u00a0Despite the acquisition of\u00a0Sale<\/strong>, I do not think Boston’s rotation is better;\u00a0David Price<\/strong> is just too shaky for me on a week in\/week out basis and\u00a0Porcello<\/strong>, despite his Cy Young in 2016 just isn’t an “Ace.” \u00a0 \u00a0But many have argued Boston is above both NY and Chicago; perhaps its recency bias due to the big moves of the past winter meetings.<\/p>\n

I have the Dodgers just ahead of the Nats right now for two reasons: I think the strength of their 2-3-4 slightly trumps our 2-3-4, especially given\u00a0Joe Ross<\/strong>‘s health question marks. \u00a0And any rotation headed by Kershaw<\/strong>\u00a0is going to be highly ranked. \u00a0You can’t drop Washington much below #5 because no other rotation has the 1-2 Ace potential that the Nats do, and\u00a0Roark<\/strong> is starting to (finally) get the recognition he deserves.<\/p>\n

Ranking spots 6-11<\/span><\/strong>: Cleveland, Detroit, Toronto, St. Louis, San Francisco and Pittsburgh.<\/p>\n

So, a lot of people highly rate Cleveland’s rotation, higher than a couple of teams in my top 5. \u00a0And if Carrasco<\/strong> and Salazar<\/strong> are healthy I agree with them. \u00a0But they’re not, so they get dinged a bit. \u00a0I still have Verlander<\/strong> rated as an Ace after his comeback 2016; maybe that’s a little too high … but the rest of their rotation is all solid, being one of the only teams that I think has #3 starter quality even to the #5 starter in\u00a0Daniel Norris<\/strong>. \u00a0 Toronto and St. Louis are both in the same spot; several very good arms who just fall below “Ace” category; in Toronto’s case it may be just a matter of time before we’re calling\u00a0Aaron Sanchez<\/strong> one of the best in the league and in St.Louis’ case the same with Carlos Martinez<\/strong>. \u00a0Some have San Francisco higher based on the fact that\u00a0Bumgarner<\/strong> may be the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher in the game … but the back end of their rotation is so shaky they get dropped almost out of the top 10. \u00a0Likewise with Pittsburgh: \u00a0things get thin fast past the top 3 for the Pirates.<\/p>\n

Ranking spots 12-16<\/strong><\/span>: Tampa, Arizona, Texas, Houston, Seattle.<\/p>\n

Five teams that all could\/should be higher. \u00a0Tampa just stole one of the best arms in the minors in\u00a0Jose De Leon<\/strong> and have some very talented youth in their rotation; if these guys click Tampa shoots upwards. \u00a0I’m not entirely sure what to make of Arizona; they have Greinke<\/strong> (the lowest\u00a0remaining Ace in terms of rotation rankings) and they have what should be a #2 in\u00a0Shelby Miller<\/strong>, but what the heck happened in 2016? \u00a0Meanwhile\u00a0former Nat-farmhand\u00a0Robbie Ray\u00a0<\/strong>has a massive delta between WAR rating systems that its hard to figure out how good he is: B-R rated his 2016 at just 0.7 bWAR while Fangraphs called it a 3.0 fWAR season. \u00a0Well which is it? \u00a0 Perhaps we’ll see some regression to some sort of mean for him in 2017. \u00a0Both Texas and \u00a0Houston have Cy Young-calibre starters at the head of their rotations with question marks:\u00a0Darvish<\/strong> b\/c of injury,\u00a0Hamels\u00a0<\/strong> because of age and\u00a0Keuchel<\/strong> due to a bad 2016. \u00a0Seattle’s rating increased over the course of the offseason with their wheeling-and-dealing GM\u00a0Mark DiPoto<\/strong> acquiring\u00a0Drew Smyly<\/strong> and\u00a0Yovani Gallardo<\/strong> to improve that rotation several clicks.<\/p>\n

Ranking Spots #17-21<\/strong><\/span>: Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Atlanta.<\/p>\n

The White Sox lost at least 5-6 rankings spots when they moved\u00a0Chris Sale<\/strong>, who was by far the biggest name to move this off-season and, in fact, is the ONLY projected starter of any team ranked in my top 10. \u00a0That’s pretty amazing; teams are just doing such a better job of building pitching staffs. \u00a0 The Yankees are precariously holding on to this spot; if their #1\u00a0Tanaka<\/strong> goes down with his partially torn UCL, they plummet into the bottom 3. \u00a0I’ve never rated Baltimore’s rotation, but they keep making the playoffs, so maybe I just have a blind spot here. \u00a0Philadelphia’s rotation could be a year or two from being in the top 6-10 range if these youngsters pan out. \u00a0Atlanta maybe should be slightly lower; I like Teheran<\/strong> but others do not. \u00a0Atlanta did by far and away the most acquisitions of any team in terms of pitching: 3 of their 5 projected opening day rotation guys are new on FA contracts, and almost all their depth is newly acquired MLFAs.<\/p>\n

Ranking Spots #22-23<\/strong><\/span>: Kansas City and Miami<\/p>\n

It just worked out this way, but both teams who had tragedy strike and take away their aces ended up ranked right next to each other. \u00a0The loss of Jose Fernandez\u00a0<\/strong>cost Miami around 9 spots, and the loss of\u00a0Yordano Ventura<\/strong> probably cost Kansas City 5-6 ranking spots. \u00a0Miami (like Atlanta) will depend on several new faces in 2017 as a result, while Kansas City may be looking at an accelerated rebuilding process.<\/p>\n

Ranking Spots #24-26<\/strong><\/span>: Minnesota, Oakland, Colorado<\/p>\n

I could see why you may think Oakland should be higher, but until their newcomers like\u00a0Sean Manaea<\/strong> (who I always like to point out was on the board and was draftable in 2013<\/a> at the spot we gave up to sign\u00a0Rafael Soriano<\/strong> in\u00a0Mike Rizzo<\/strong>‘s eternal Quest for a Closer) succeed for more than a couple of months, Oakland stays ranked this low. \u00a0I wouldn’t vociferously argue the order of any of these teams: they’re mostly ranked by their aces this low.<\/p>\n

Ranking Spots #27-30<\/strong><\/span>: Los Angeles Angels, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and San Diego<\/p>\n

At least the Angels and Cincinnati have a couple of arms that you may briefly consider in fantasy; you can’t say that for Milwaukee or San Diego. \u00a0In fact, if you told me that the “next 5” for San Diego was actually their planned rotation, I’m not sure i’d rank them any worse than the first 5. \u00a0Milwaukee has instead depended on veteran players for their low ranking level, with their team ace\u00a0Matt Garza<\/strong> making more news lately for having his Ferrari vandalized<\/a> and for piping up about birth control<\/a> on twitter than for his capabilities on the mound. \u00a0Always a good sign for your coming season.<\/p>\n

\n

So, what do you guys think of my rankings?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Even though there’s still about 20 “starting pitchers” still on the FA market, none of them really project as anything more than a 5th starter competition or a MLFA signing at this point in the off-season, so I thought it was high time to break out my 2017 Rotation Rankings. \u00a0(Here’s a link to last […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[3302,2321,71,1169,426,247,2593,2898,2025,223,2117,2653,2691,221,3409,1886,1913,44,894,3410,2166,131,1666,129,2326,1398,266,18,1810,1333,38,2911,77,2232,1251,300,254],"class_list":["post-13381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-aaron-sanchez","tag-carlos-carrasco","tag-carlos-martinez","tag-chris-sale","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-cole-hamels","tag-dallas-keuchel","tag-daniel-norris","tag-danny-salazar","tag-david-price","tag-drew-smyly","tag-jacob-degrom","tag-joe-ross","tag-jon-lester","tag-jose-de-leon","tag-jose-fernandez","tag-julio-teheran","tag-justin-verlander","tag-madison-bumgarner","tag-mark-dipoto","tag-masahiro-tanaka","tag-matt-garza","tag-matt-harvey","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-noah-snydergaard","tag-rafael-soriano","tag-rick-porcello","tag-robbie-ray","tag-sean-manaea","tag-shelby-miller","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-steven-matz","tag-tanner-roark","tag-yordano-ventura","tag-yovani-gallardo","tag-yu-darvish","tag-zack-greinke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13381"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13381\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13393,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13381\/revisions\/13393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}