{"id":1436,"date":"2011-05-17T19:34:03","date_gmt":"2011-05-17T23:34:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1436"},"modified":"2013-07-03T09:55:01","modified_gmt":"2013-07-03T13:55:01","slug":"is-john-lannan-slowly-endangering-his-rotation-spot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1436","title":{"rendered":"Is John Lannan slowly endangering his rotation spot?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1439\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/LannanJohn2011_.-Luis-M.-Alvarez-AP-www.timesunion.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1439\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1439\" title=\"LannanJohn2011_. (Luis M. Alvarez  AP) www.timesunion.com\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/LannanJohn2011_.-Luis-M.-Alvarez-AP-www.timesunion.com_-300x178.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"178\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/LannanJohn2011_.-Luis-M.-Alvarez-AP-www.timesunion.com_-300x178.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/LannanJohn2011_.-Luis-M.-Alvarez-AP-www.timesunion.com_.jpg 628w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1439\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Maybe its the 2011 haircut that is the source of Lannan&#8217;s mediocre start. Photo: Luis M. Alvarez\/AP via www.timesunion.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>In his latest outing (<a href=\"http:\/\/washington.nationals.mlb.com\/mlb\/gameday\/index.jsp?gid=2011_05_16_pitmlb_wasmlb_1&amp;mode=recap&amp;c_id=was\">5\/16 against the Pirates<\/a>), <strong>John Lannan <\/strong>worked around 11 base-runners in 6 and a third innings and only gave up 2 runs (one being inherited and allowed to score by <strong>Cole Kimball<\/strong>).\u00a0 Four walks conspired to cause Lannan grief all afternoon, as well as only throwing 54 of 101 pitches for strikes.\u00a0 However in the end, it was a quality start and kept the team in the game.<\/p>\n<p>But are we seeing a gradual breakdown in Lannan overall?\u00a0 After getting sent down in 2010, he had masterful numbers upon his return (6-3 record with a 3.42 era and 1.24 whip in his last 10 starts in 2010).\u00a0 But he has not been able to carry these numbers into 2011.\u00a0 Right now, his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/l\/lannajo01.shtml\">season long 2011 numbers<\/a> are WORSE than his combined stats from last year, and despite only really having one egregiously bad outing (2ip, 6runs) his supporting stats are getting to be really concerning.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s what concerns me specifically:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1.615 whip.\u00a0 That&#8217;s just way too many base-runners.<\/li>\n<li>26ks and 22bbs in 47 IP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Perhaps I&#8217;m being nit-picky; his ERA (4.53) is almost exactly in line with his <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/winss.aspx?team=Nationals&amp;pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2011&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2011\">FIP and xFIP<\/a> (4.50 and 4.56 respectively) meaning he&#8217;s pitching exactly as expected.\u00a0 His BABIP is .323, meaning he&#8217;s been unlucky and is due for a regression of seeing-eye singles costing him hits and base-runners.\u00a0 His game scores throughout the season have been relatively consistent (mostly 40s and 50s; his high on the season has been 54 and his 5\/16 game was a 51).<\/p>\n<p>But, more importantly, even if Lannan is the first in line to be replaced out of our current rotation, we don&#8217;t really have anyone in AAA quite yet deserving of the promotion.<\/p>\n<p>The incumbent seemed to be <strong>Ross Detwiler<\/strong>, but he&#8217;s really struggling so far this year in AAA.\u00a0 $8M man <strong>Yunesky Maya <\/strong>started slow and is coming around, but I want to see more Ks out of him.\u00a0 <strong>Tom Milone<\/strong>&#8216;s k\/bb ratio is fantastic but he&#8217;s not on the 40-man (though we seem to have an empty spot right now, so perhaps that&#8217;s a non-issue).\u00a0 Newly promoted <strong>Brad Meyers <\/strong>needs a few more AAA starts for seasoning but the evidence is there (especially after he dominated AA early in the season); his problem is lack of 40-man status as well.\u00a0 Lastly <strong>Craig Stammen <\/strong>believe it or not may have the best case of them all; best whip, decent numbers, and outside of one bad start has been solid, but he seems to have the least &#8220;investment&#8221; of any of the starters in Syracuse and seems more likely destined for the bullpen than the MLB rotation.<\/p>\n<p>Interesting decisions lay ahead, especially if Lannan has a couple bad outings in a row.\u00a0 Remember; Lannan has minor league options (two of them if I read his transactions correctly).\u00a0 It isn&#8217;t really a good statement to option a former opening day starter, but the team has to do what is best.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In his latest outing (5\/16 against the Pirates), John Lannan worked around 11 base-runners in 6 and a third innings and only gave up 2 runs (one being inherited and allowed to score by Cole Kimball).\u00a0 Four walks conspired to cause Lannan grief all afternoon, as well as only throwing 54 of 101 pitches for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[72,100,98,39,51,34,883],"class_list":["post-1436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-brad-meyers","tag-cole-kimball","tag-craig-stammen","tag-john-lannan","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-tommy-milone","tag-yunesky-maya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1436"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1436\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1444,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1436\/revisions\/1444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}