{"id":14586,"date":"2017-11-17T09:59:17","date_gmt":"2017-11-17T14:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=14586"},"modified":"2017-11-20T14:10:07","modified_gmt":"2017-11-20T19:10:07","slug":"2017-rule-5-addition-analysispredictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=14586","title":{"rendered":"2017 Rule-5 Addition analysis\/predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_14589\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/GushueTaylor-via-mlb.com_.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-14589\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14589\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-14589\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/GushueTaylor-via-mlb.com_-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"Will Gushue get the call this weekend? Photo via mlb.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/GushueTaylor-via-mlb.com_-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/GushueTaylor-via-mlb.com_-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/GushueTaylor-via-mlb.com_-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/GushueTaylor-via-mlb.com_.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-14589\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Will Gushue get the call this weekend? Photo via mlb.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>We do this every year.\u00a0 We argue about it every year.\u00a0 This is now the 8th version of this post (see the bottom for links\/summary of the first seven).\u00a0 Thanks to long-since implemented service time changes the Rule-5 draft remains mitigated in importance.\u00a0 Yet here we are talking about it again, because we&#8217;re some of the few people out there who obsess about the edges of the 40-man roster, and who have meticulously studied our prospects for years and who don&#8217;t necessarily want to see the promising ones head out the door for a pittance.\u00a0 \u00a0So here we are.<\/p>\n<p>Next <a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/news\/article\/261944130\/prospects-added-to-40-man-or-exposed-to-rule-5\/\">Monday at 8pm is the deadline<\/a> to set 40-man rosters ahead of the Winter Meetings, which include the Rule-5 draft.\u00a0 With so many teams purposely tanking there&#8217;s going to be lots of usage of the draft this year.\u00a0 Lets take a look at who is eligible, who might get protected and make some predictions.\u00a0 I&#8217;ve got the Nats 40-man roster at 35 now, so there&#8217;s plenty of room to add names and do their off-season work.<\/p>\n<p>As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdGhVRjRfNW81SG8xRlROQ1ZxZzNfbUE&amp;hl=en#gid=0\">Draft tracker<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc\/edit?hl=en#gid=1078892545\">Big Board<\/a>,\u00a0and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here\u2019s some thoughts on who might merit protection.\u00a0 \u00a0Also incredibly useful is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rosterresource.com\/mlb-washington-nationals\">Roster Resource&#8217;s Nats Roster<\/a>, which keeps track of options, rule-5 status and the like.<\/p>\n<p>The quick Rule-5 rules for 2017; any college-aged draftee from 2014 or before who isn\u2019t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee\/International Free Agent from 2013 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Newly Eligible\u00a02014 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Austen Williams<\/b>: he has featured at High-A 3 years running, got moved to AA for the 2nd year running this year and still continues to struggle with that leap.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s a candidate to protect but is worth mentioning since he&#8217;s a long-serving starter in the organization.\u00a0 The team sent him to the AFL perhaps as an audition for consideration.<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12966\">Tyler Mapes<\/a><\/strong>: the 30th round pick continues to be found gold for this team &#8230; but he missed the entire 2017 with an injury.\u00a0 Because of that he&#8217;s clearly not a rule-5 danger, but he could fit into the teams plans as a rotation member in AA or AAA this year.\u00a0 He has a career 2.68 ERA in the minors, vastly outperforming most of the rest of his draft class.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Taylor Gushue<\/strong>: the 2017 trade acquisition had a solid year in High-A, is a catcher in a system that needs them, and seems like a lock to add.\u00a0 He wasn&#8217;t set to the AFL for nothing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Not mentioned: several other draftees from this class that are marginal prospects right now:\u00a0<strong>Dale Carey, Matthew Page, Austin Davidson, Alec Keller, Robbie Dickey, Weston Davis, James Bourque.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>All these guys are still in the lower minors.\u00a0 Dickey represents the biggest investment ($400k signing bonus) and is one of the biggest disappointments from this draft.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Erick Fedde<\/strong> would have been the big name here to protect had he not already been added.\u00a0\u00a0<strong>Trea Turner<\/strong> was also a 2014 college draftee.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Newly Eligible 2013 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Drew Ward<\/strong>: he is literally the only 2013 HS draftee remaining in the system and is an interesting protection case.\u00a0 He had a great 2016 (making the All Star team and shining in High-A) but has not translated that success to AA.\u00a0 But, he&#8217;s only 22, and a 22-yr old struggling in AA isn&#8217;t that surprising.\u00a0 Question is; do you protect him?\u00a0 He&#8217;s blocked at the major league level by\u00a0<strong>Anthony Rendon<\/strong>\u00a0but that means little in a game where his value might be in trade versus production for the big league squad.\u00a0 It wouldn&#8217;t surprise me if he got protected.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Newly Eligible 2013 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Edwin Lora<\/b>: SS who has progressed neatly one level at a time for 5 years.\u00a0 But he&#8217;s a career .238 hitter.\u00a0 We need a backup utility fielder and he fits the bill, but he doesn&#8217;t seem to be ready.\u00a0 I also don&#8217;t see him as a threat to get drafted.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kelvin Gutierrez<\/strong>, 3B recently of the AFL who has shown some promise.\u00a0 He&#8217;s a lock to get protected based on his production and his presence in Arizona.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Luis Reyes<\/strong>, RHP who started 26 games for\u00a0Potomac this year.\u00a0 He&#8217;s a bit wild, but he&#8217;s also a solid starter who projects to AA in 2018.\u00a0 Is that enough to be a draft threat?\u00a0 \u00a0Maybe.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Anderson Franco<\/strong>, 3B: highly touted on prospect boards, but hit just .201 for low-A this year.\u00a0 Not a draft candidate but someone to watch\/hope for a rebound 2018.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Not mentioned: many\u00a02013 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. \u00a0This includes\u00a0<strong>Aldrem Corridor, Joshual Ramirez, Luis Vilorio, Oliver Ortiz, Francys Peguero<\/strong>.\u00a0 Honestly, I had not even heard of most of these guys and wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if I had their eligibility wrong.\u00a0 They&#8217;re mostly in the very low minors.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note:\u00a0<\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">2013 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2012 and prior HS\/IFAs.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Wander Suero<\/strong>: the 2010 IFA exploded onto the scene this year as the closer in AA and then AAA, posting a 1.79 ERA for the year and heading to the AFL.\u00a0 He was already added to the roster two weeks ago.<\/li>\n<li><strong>John Simms<\/strong>: I&#8217;ve always liked this guy; he&#8217;s now worked his way to AAA and made 8 starts there last\u00a0 year.\u00a0 He isn&#8217;t a big K\/9 guy, perhaps is seen as an org arm, but he&#8217;s got a good pedigree (Rice) and has made it to the cusp of the majors.\u00a0 Is that enough to protect him?\u00a0 Probably not.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Spencer Kieboom<\/strong>: he struggled enough in 2016 to get DFA&#8217;d in early 2017 &#8230; but then he hit pretty well in AAA this year.\u00a0 Is that enough to get him back into the mix?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Dakota Bacus<\/strong>: he pitched pretty darn well in relief across High-A and AA this year, and was sent to AFL to get more innings.\u00a0 Is he an option to add?\u00a0 He didn&#8217;t have the numbers that Suero did, but perhaps the team thinks he could be an option out of the pen.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Kyle McGowin<\/strong>: an interesting case since he was sent to the AFL: he struggled badly in 2017, getting demoted to AA at one point and posting a 5.95 ERA for the year.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;d shed a tear if he was drafted, but I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s meriting a 40-man spot right now.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Joan Baez<\/strong>; power arms don&#8217;t grow on trees, and even though he was &#8220;only&#8221; in high-A this year he&#8217;s well known enough to perhaps merit protection.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2013 or before College Draftees that are Rule-5 holdovers include\u00a0<strong>David Masters, Isaac Ballou, Justin Thomas, Matthew DeRosier, Robert Benincasa, Derek Self, Brian Rauh, Ronald Pena, Robert Orlan, Steven Perez,\u00a0Bryan Mejia, Osvaldo Abreu, Wirkin Estevez, Hector Silvestre, Jefry Rodriguez.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Perhaps at some points in their careers some of these guys seemed like locks, but for now they all toil in the lower minors (for the most part) hoping to put themselves into contention.<\/p>\n<p>MLFAs who are technically Rule-5 eligible:\u00a0<strong>\u00a0Yadiel Hernandez,\u00a0\u00a0Irving Falou, Greg Ross, Jaron Long, Jordan Mills.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Long in particular has worked in AAA for three years now, but may be considered an org arm at this point.\u00a0 Ross looked promising for a while, but struggled badly in 2017.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>So, who would I protect<\/strong><\/span>?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Wander Suero (already added)<\/li>\n<li>Kelvin Gutierrez<\/li>\n<li>Taylor Gushue<\/li>\n<li>Drew Ward<\/li>\n<li>Joan Baez<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Who would I consider: Kieboom, Bacus.\u00a0 Maybe.<\/p>\n<p>If they added these four additional guys they&#8217;d be at 39\/40 on the roster, still leaving them immediate room for a FA signing or trade.\u00a0 \u00a0But there&#8217;s more than a few names on our 40-man currently that could be cut (starting with\u00a0Voth, Gott, Bautista).\u00a0 So we could see some manouvering this off-season.<\/p>\n<p>Did I miss anyone?\u00a0 this is kind of tough analysis without a massive white board with every name in the organization listed &#8230; something none of us have time to do for free.<\/p>\n<p>Nats <a href=\"https:\/\/curlyw.mlblogs.com\/nationals-add-two-players-to-40-man-roster-6b03891346ae\">official protection announcement<\/a>: Gutierrez and\u00a0<strong>Jefry Rodriguez<\/strong> in kind of a shocker.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>For a fun trip down memory lane, here&#8217;s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis post for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=12966\">2016<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11576\">2015<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9947\">2014<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7502\">2013<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5270\">2012<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1996\">2011<\/a>, and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=363\">2010<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>By year, here&#8217;s who I predicted we&#8217;d add and who we did add.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2017: Predicted: Gutierrez, Gushue, Ward, Baez.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/curlyw.mlblogs.com\/nationals-add-two-players-to-40-man-roster-6b03891346ae\">Actual<\/a>: Gutierrez and Jefry Rodriguez.<\/li>\n<li>2016: Predicted Voth, Bautista. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/nationals-pastime\/2016\/11\/voth-bautista-among-five-players-added-to-nats-40-man-roster.html\">Actual<\/a>: Voth, Bautista, Marmolejos, Read and Skole.<\/li>\n<li>2015:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=11576\">Predicted<\/a>\u00a0Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/nationals-journal\/wp\/2015\/11\/19\/nationals-add-three-to-40-man-roster-ahead-of-fridays-rule-5-deadline\/\">Actual<\/a>: Kieboom, Bostick, Lee<\/li>\n<li>2014:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9947\">Predicted<\/a>\u00a0Cole, Skole, Goodwin.\u00a0 Hedged on Grace, Martin and Difo.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=10039\">Actual<\/a>: Cole, Goodwin, Difo, Grace.<\/li>\n<li>2013:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7502\">Predicted<\/a>\u00a0Solis as the only lock (Souza already added). \u00a0Possibles mentioned in order Barrett, Taylor, Grace, Holland.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2013\/washington-nationals\">Actual: Solis, Barrett, Taylor<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>2012:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5270\">Predicted<\/a>\u00a0Karns and McCoy, with Hood and Rosenbaum as maybes.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2012\/washington-nationals\">Actual: Karns and Davis<\/a>.\u00a0 I think we were all surprised by Davis&#8217; inclusion, despite his good AA numbers that year.<\/li>\n<li>2011:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1996\">Predicted<\/a>\u00a0Norris as a lock, guessed strongly on Moore, Meyers and Komatsu.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2011\/washington-nationals\">Actual: Norris, Moore, Solano, Perez<\/a>.\u00a0 \u00a0 This was poor analysis on my part; I did not consider the IFAs newly eligible.<\/li>\n<li>2010:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=363\">Predicted<\/a>\u00a0Marrero, Meyers and Mandel.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2010\/washington-nationals\">Actual: Marrero, Carr and Kimball<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>2009: pre-dates my blog and thus no predictions, but\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/team\/transactions\/_\/name\/wsh\/year\/2009\/washington-nationals\">Actual was Jaime, Thompson and Severino<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>2008: I might be wrong, but I don&#8217;t see any evidence of the team protecting *anyone* prior to the Rule-5 draft.\u00a0 A bit of an indictment of the farm system at the time, I&#8217;d say \ud83d\ude42<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We do this every year.\u00a0 We argue about it every year.\u00a0 This is now the 8th version of this post (see the bottom for links\/summary of the first seven).\u00a0 Thanks to long-since implemented service time changes the Rule-5 draft remains mitigated in importance.\u00a0 Yet here we are talking about it again, because we&#8217;re some of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2039],"tags":[3724,2481,2721,185,2469,2923,3369,2005,2920,1970,938,1813,3723,2425,3664,3467,2006,3731,1971,2924,3388,3729,3028,1967,3732,3725,1977,3694,3380,2138,3726,2568,2473,3727,3366,2569,940,1290,942,2759,3728,3683,2936,1877,2921,918,3730],"class_list":["post-14586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rule-5","tag-aldrem-corridor","tag-alec-keller","tag-anderson-franco","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-austen-williams","tag-austin-davidson","tag-bryan-mejia","tag-dakota-bacus","tag-dale-carey","tag-david-masters","tag-derek-self","tag-drew-ward","tag-edwin-lora","tag-erick-fedde","tag-francys-peguero","tag-greg-ross","tag-hector-silvestre","tag-irving-falou","tag-isaac-ballou","tag-james-bourque","tag-jaron-long","tag-jefry-rodr","tag-joan-baez","tag-john-simms","tag-jordan-mills","tag-joshual-ramirez","tag-justin-thomas","tag-kelvin-gutierrez","tag-kyle-mcgowin","tag-luis-reyes","tag-luis-vilorio","tag-matthew-derosier","tag-matthew-page","tag-oliver-ortiz","tag-osvaldo-abreu","tag-robbie-dickey","tag-robert-benincasa","tag-robert-orlan","tag-ronald-pena","tag-spencer-kieboom","tag-steven-perez","tag-taylor-gushue","tag-tyler-mapes","tag-wander-suero","tag-weston-davis","tag-wirkin-estevez","tag-yadiel-hernandez"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14586"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14586\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14595,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14586\/revisions\/14595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}