{"id":1530,"date":"2011-06-03T15:54:38","date_gmt":"2011-06-03T19:54:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1530"},"modified":"2013-10-10T13:37:38","modified_gmt":"2013-10-10T17:37:38","slug":"nats-at-6-take-alex-meyer-or-trever-bauer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1530","title":{"rendered":"Nats at #6 take &#8230; Alex Meyer?  Or Trever Bauer?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1546\" style=\"width: 260px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/meyeralex_uky_lex18.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1546\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1546\" title=\"meyeralex_uky_lex18.com\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/meyeralex_uky_lex18.com_.jpg\" width=\"250\" height=\"209\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1546\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Is Alex Meyers set to be our next 1st round draft pick? Photo: lex18.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The consensus view on the draft and the Nationals <strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong>&#8216;s draft proclivities seems to fall along two lines of thought:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The 2011 draft is heavy on good college arms.\u00a0 And&#8230;<\/li>\n<li>Rizzo likes college arms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, the odds are he&#8217;s taking a college arm at #6.\u00a0 Lets look at the top college arms available.\u00a0 These are in rough order of their probable draft position.\u00a0 All these pitchers are either college juniors or draft-eligible sophomores.<\/p>\n<p>1. <strong>Gerrit Cole<\/strong>, Ucla.\u00a0 Some concerns about his performance this year are knocking him from a consensus 1-1 position to possibly sliding to 5th (if you believe <strong>Keith Law<\/strong>&#8216;s mock draft; see below).\u00a0 If he got to the Nats, it&#8217;d be a steal.\u00a0 But it comes with some concerns.\u00a0 As in, how does a guy hitting 100mph only have a 9 k\/9 rate?\u00a0 Strasburg had comparable stuff and was striking guys out at nearly twice that rate.<\/p>\n<p>2. <strong>Danny Hultzen<\/strong>, Uva.\u00a0 Most have him going #3 overall to Arizona, some think Pittsburgh is getting scared off both Cole and <strong>Anthony Renden<\/strong> and will take him as a value pick, fast to the majors.\u00a0 Despite his being a local guy, I&#8217;m not sure I want him if I&#8217;m the Nats.\u00a0 Lefty, solid pitcher, fast to the majors sure.\u00a0 But there&#8217;s some stories about his training methods and inflexibility to take coaching that are red flags in my opinion (see <strong>Trevor Bauer<\/strong>).\u00a0 There&#8217;s also stories about a meddlesome father out and about, though I&#8217;d have a hard time that would translate to the pro game.<\/p>\n<p>3. <strong>Trevor Bauer<\/strong>, Ucla.\u00a0 Ucla&#8217;s &#8220;other&#8221; starter is actually going before Cole on some draft boards.\u00a0 This, I don&#8217;t get.\u00a0 He&#8217;s good, and he has a strong arm, but his ridiculous preparation methods and mid-inning throwing is so unorthodox that it may spell doom to whatever organization has to deal with him.\u00a0 If he&#8217;s already telling people &#8220;don&#8217;t draft me if you want to change my preparation&#8221; then how will he ever take constructive criticism or coaching?\u00a0 To say nothing of the 150-160pitch outings he&#8217;s frequently had this season.\u00a0 He does have a ridiculous 189 Ks in 127 innings this year.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s one <a href=\"http:\/\/projectprospect.com\/article\/2011\/05\/30\/trevor-bauer-scouting-report\">scouting report<\/a> on Bauer for your perusal.<\/p>\n<p>4. <strong>Alex Meyer<\/strong>, Kentucky.\u00a0 Fangraphs.com scouted and did an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/blogs\/index.php\/2011-draft-scouting-alex-meyer\">extensive report<\/a> on Meyer, his stuff, and his outlook just this week, reviewing his Florida start.\u00a0 Rizzo likes big body, power arms out of college and Meyer absolutely fits that bill.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s a profile at <a href=\"http:\/\/mlbdraftinsider.com\/alex-meyer\/\">mlbdraftinsider.com<\/a>.\u00a0 Here&#8217;s another at <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/news\/article.jsp?ymd=20110527&amp;content_id=19629924&amp;vkey=news_mlb&amp;c_id=mlb&amp;tcid=tw_article_19629924\">mlb.com by <strong>Jonathan Mayo<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0 The major thing that scares me about Meyer is his sudden reversal of fortunes over his first two college seasons.\u00a0 How does a guy have a 7+ era as a sophomore then suddenly start throwing lights out (2.94 era, 110ks in 101 innings) as a junior?\u00a0 Who is the real Meyer?<\/p>\n<p>5. <strong>Sonny Gray<\/strong>, Vanderbilt<strong>. <\/strong>Good stuff, good results, bad body.\u00a0 Just as with pro quarterbacks, no GM likes to take a sub-6-foot right hander.\u00a0 Most think he&#8217;s headed for the bullpen &#8230; if so how could you possibly draft him this high?\u00a0 A top5 overall pitcher better have future Ace starter potential.<\/p>\n<p>Anyone below this point isn&#8217;t going to get past the Nats, since Anthony Rendon probably goes 1st or 2nd and one of the big-time high school prospects (among them possibly Bundy, Starling or Archie Bradley) may go top 5 as well.\u00a0 Of the arms below; if any of them fall to #23 we may snap them up despite really needing bats in the farm system.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jed Bradley<\/strong>, Georgia Tech.\u00a0 Good lefty, good league.\u00a0 Some think he&#8217;s top3, others think he&#8217;s lasting til the teens.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Matt Barnes<\/strong>, UConn.\u00a0 I&#8217;m sure he&#8217;s a great pitcher but playing in the Big East isn&#8217;t exactly like playing in the SEC.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Taylor Jungmann<\/strong>, UTexas.\u00a0 Stock is falling.<\/li>\n<li><strong>John Stilson<\/strong>, Tamu.\u00a0 lots of K\/9 in a good league.\u00a0 Unfortunately he just <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/blog\/draft\/2011\/05\/stilson-faces-labrum-surgery\/\">destroyed his shoulder<\/a> and probably won&#8217;t even be drafted.\u00a0 He&#8217;ll be lucky to recover from a SLAP tear.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Matthew Purke<\/strong>, TCU.\u00a0 Has had injury concerns all year but has a top-5 talent arm.\u00a0 I&#8217;d wonder if the Nats would roll the dice at #23 or possibly in the supplemental round on him.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/mlb\/blog?name=mlb_draft&amp;id=6592337&amp;campaign=rss&amp;source=ESPNHeadlines\">Keith Law posted today<\/a> (insider only) that his price tag won&#8217;t be worth what he has shown this year, and I&#8217;m guessing he returns to school for his junior year.\u00a0 More likely he&#8217;ll play in the Cape, try to re-gain his mojo and earn his (likely) $6M demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Lots of draft pundits are putting the Nats onto Kentucky right-hander <strong>Alex Meyer<\/strong> at the #6 spot.\u00a0 According to some reports, the Nationals were initially targeting him at #23, but a strong 2011 season has him shooting up the draft boards.\u00a0 If not Meyer, a lot of other mock drafts have us on <strong>Trevor Bauer<\/strong>, which scares me for reasons mentioned above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s some good mock drafts to refer to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/mlb\/draft\/2011\/insider\/columns\/story?columnist=law_keith&amp;page=LawMockDraft1.0\">Keith Law&#8217;s 5\/17\/11 mock draft<\/a>: Hultzen-Rendon-Bauer, Nats get Meyer.\u00a0 Unorthodox compared to other mocks and conventional wisdom.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/today\/draft\/mock-draft\/2011\/2611735.html\">Baseball America\/Jim Callis 5\/13\/11 mock draft<\/a>: Cole-Rendon-Hulzen and Nats on Meyer.\u00a0 More typically what people predict.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/today\/draft\/mock-draft\/2011\/2611827.html\">Baseball America\/Jim Callis 5\/27 version<\/a>: some changes.\u00a0 Rendon-Starling-Hultzen, Nats on Bauer.\u00a0 First time we&#8217;ve seen Starling this high.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.prospectjunkies.com\/2011\/05\/2011-mlb-mock-draft.html\">ProspectJunkies.com Mock Draft v3.0 5\/6\/11<\/a>: Rendon-Cole-Gray with Nats getting Hultzen.\u00a0 I just can&#8217;t see Gray going this high.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.minorleagueball.com\/2011\/5\/9\/2159387\/2011-baseball-mock-draft-first-round\">Minorleaguebaseball.com\/John Sickels 5\/9\/11 mock<\/a>: Rendon-Cole-Hultzen, Nats get Bauer and Meyer falls to 22?\u00a0 Seems like an outlier mock draft.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.minorleagueball.com\/2011\/5\/30\/2195070\/2011-baseball-mock-draft-mark-ii\">John Sickels&#8217;s 2nd mock 5\/30\/11<\/a>: Rendon-Cole-Hultzen again, Nats on Bauer again.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/rangers.scout.com\/2\/1073309.html\">Scout.com&#8217;s initial mock draft 5\/19\/11<\/a>: Cole, Bundy, Hulzen, with Rendon falling past the Nats (can&#8217;t see that) to #8 and the Nats taking Bauer.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mymlbdraft.com\/MLB-Mock-Draft-2011\">mymlbdraft.com 5\/24\/11 updated mock 1st round<\/a>: Cole, Rendon, Hultzen with Nats getting Meyer.\u00a0 Seems pretty conventional.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/mlbdraftinsider.com\/2011\/05\/25\/the-mock-volume-iv\/\">mlbdraftinsider.com 5\/25\/11 Mock v4<\/a>: Cole, Rendon, Hultzen with Nats getting Meyer again.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/fantasy\/mlb\/news;_ylt=Ar2TRJW0.WSChhZxselT4eG5bZ8u?slug=rs-minor_developments_mock_draft_part1_051811\">Yahoo sports&#8217;s 5\/18\/11 mock draft<\/a>: Rendon, Cole, Hultzen with Nats getting Bauer.<\/li>\n<li>Not a mock draft, but here&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseballamerica.com\/today\/draft\/draft-preview\/2011\/2611794.html\">Baseball America&#8217;s final ranking<\/a> of its top 200 prospects.\u00a0 Rather disturbingly, they have Meyer ranked #19, lower than nearly every pitcher mentioned above.<\/li>\n<li>Not a mock draft, but Yahoo&#8217;s <strong>Jeff Passan<\/strong> is an excellent writer and has a <a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/mlb\/news?slug=jp-passan_10_degrees_draft_scott_boras_053011\">really nice article<\/a> about the draft&#8217;s biggest names.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Final thoughts<\/p>\n<p>I think Meyer may end up being an overdraft, but its hard not to fall in love with a big body and a big arm.\u00a0 You can&#8217;t teach MPH.\u00a0 Bauer (as Passan says) may be Lincecum 2.0 and certainly has amazing k\/9 rates this year, but i&#8217;d be afraid of his unconventionalism.\u00a0 Videos of his mechanics aren&#8217;t that crazy, and he definitely has a great arm.\u00a0 We&#8217;ll see if the Nats go this way or surprise everyone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The consensus view on the draft and the Nationals Mike Rizzo&#8216;s draft proclivities seems to fall along two lines of thought: The 2011 draft is heavy on good college arms.\u00a0 And&#8230; Rizzo likes college arms. So, the odds are he&#8217;s taking a college arm at #6.\u00a0 Lets look at the top college arms available.\u00a0 These [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[262,185,448,447,736,1057,1221,1058,442,440,590,1061,475,110,1059,166,129,2028,1060,316,1056],"class_list":["post-1530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","tag-alex-meyer","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-archie-bradley","tag-bubba-starling","tag-danny-hultzen","tag-dylan-bundy","tag-gerrit-cole","tag-jed-bradley","tag-jeff-passan","tag-jim-callis","tag-john-sickels","tag-john-stilson","tag-jonathan-mayo","tag-keith-law","tag-matt-barnes","tag-matthew-purke","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-sonny-gray","tag-taylor-jungmann","tag-tim-lincecum","tag-trevor-bauer"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1530"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7947,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1530\/revisions\/7947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}