{"id":15412,"date":"2018-10-01T10:40:25","date_gmt":"2018-10-01T14:40:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15412"},"modified":"2018-12-16T10:06:42","modified_gmt":"2018-12-16T15:06:42","slug":"my-2018-end-of-season-awards-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15412","title":{"rendered":"My 2018 End-of-Season Awards Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_15415\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/BettsMookie-via-redsoxlife.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15415\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15415\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-15415\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/BettsMookie-via-redsoxlife-300x200.png\" alt=\"Another season, another MVP runner-up for Trout at the behest of another player? PHoto via redsox life\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/BettsMookie-via-redsoxlife-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/BettsMookie-via-redsoxlife-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/BettsMookie-via-redsoxlife-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/BettsMookie-via-redsoxlife.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15415\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Another season, another MVP runner-up for Trout at the behest of another player? PHoto via redsox life<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Hi there.\u00a0 Its time to write about the\u00a0&#8220;silly season&#8221; of baseball.\u00a0 \u00a0Its my annual awards predictor piece.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s my predictions for how the awards will go.\u00a0 Important note:\u00a0<em>This is not necessarily how I believe the awards should go, it is how I think the current electorate will vote<\/em>\u00a0&#8230;\u00a0 though I do tend to believe that the MVP award in particular is not just about naming the WAR leader in the league.\u00a0 And I also tend to favor giving a pitcher the Cy Young and a non-pitcher the MVP.\u00a0 But feel free to discuss in the comments if you think i&#8217;m wrong.\u00a0 I can be argumentative either way \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<p>How do I think the voting will go?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>AL MVP:\u00a0<\/strong>Betts<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL MVP<\/strong>:\u00a0Yelich<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Cy Young<\/strong>:\u00a0Snell<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Cy Young<\/strong>: Scherzer, changed mind to deGrom after reading the tea leaves<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Rookie<\/strong>:\u00a0Ohtani<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Rookie<\/strong>: Acuna<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Manager<\/strong>: Melvin (Oakland)<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Manager<\/strong>: Snitker (Atlanta)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Discussion\/Reasoning<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AL MVP:\u00a0<strong>Mookie Betts<\/strong> is the best player on the best team, always a good place to start with MVP thoughts.\u00a0 Yes, once again\u00a0<strong>Mike Trout<\/strong> is having a phenomenal year, and once again he toils on the West Coast and for a team out of the playoff race.\u00a0 I&#8217;m eternally sympathetic to those who think MVP should not include team performance &#8230; and i&#8217;m perennially finding myself agreeing with &#8220;old school&#8221; sentiments that ask a simple question; how can you be the most valuable player when your team isn&#8217;t a factor for most of the year.\u00a0 \u00a0Also in the mix would be Betts&#8217; teammate\u00a0<strong>J.D. Ramirez<\/strong>, the Oakland phenomenon\u00a0<strong>Matt Chapman,<\/strong> Houston WAR leader\u00a0<strong>Alex Bregman<\/strong>, and Cleveland stars\u00a0<strong>Jose Ramirez<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Francisco Lindor<\/strong>.\u00a0 My personal hedge statement here: I&#8217;d be rather surprised if Betts did not win.<\/li>\n<li>NL MVP:\u00a0<strong>Christian Yelich<\/strong> has really exploded late in the season to put his name into this discussion.\u00a0 But the question may end up being this: is this one of those weird years where no dominant, obvious position player candidate steps up and thus the award goes to a pitcher?\u00a0 I&#8217;d suggest this might be possible &#8230; except that the top 3-4 pitching candidates all play for non-playoff teams.\u00a0 And that doesn&#8217;t match the narrative.\u00a0 I&#8217;m going to go with Yelich, then the top NL pitchers right behind him, with perhaps\u00a0<strong>Javier Baez,<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<strong>Nolan Arenado<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>Freddie Freeman<\/strong> getting some votes as their respective &#8220;best player on a playoff team&#8221; status.\u00a0 Coincidentally &#8230; did you know that\u00a0<strong>Anthony Rendon<\/strong> is 2nd in the NL in fWAR behind Yelich?\u00a0 I certainly didn&#8217;t.\u00a0 Personal Hedge statement: I&#8217;d still be shocked if a pitcher for a non-playoff team won here, and would find it hard to vote for one of these other position players mentioned.<\/li>\n<li>AL Cy Young:\u00a0<strong>Blake Snell<\/strong>.\u00a0 \u00a0This might be an interesting case of whether you&#8217;re wow&#8217;d by conventional stats or not.\u00a0 Snell has a sub 2.00 ERA, but he&#8217;s doing it thanks to a ridiculously low BABIP, which drags down is fWAR and puts him well down the league leader list.\u00a0 Meanwhile in bWAR &#8230; he&#8217;s the top AL pitcher, ahead of his competition for this award.\u00a0 I think the fact that he&#8217;s put up the numbers that he has playing in the AL East and having fully 25% of his starts this year come against Boston and the Yankees is pretty amazing.\u00a0 I&#8217;d vote Snell.\u00a0 Also in the mix here:\u00a0<strong>Verlander, Cole, Sale, Kluber, Bauer<\/strong>.\u00a0 Personal Hedge: wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if this went to Verlander or Sale instead.<\/li>\n<li>NL Cy Young.\u00a0\u00a0<strong>Max Scherzer<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes i&#8217;m convinced that his broaching the 300k mark put him over the top, despite the unbelievable season that\u00a0<strong>Jacob deGrom<\/strong> had.\u00a0 I could be wrong; maybe the electorate has now advanced to the point where they recognize that a guy who finished 10-9 was indeed the best pitcher of the year.\u00a0 We&#8217;ll see.\u00a0 Either way, I sense these guys go 1-2.\u00a0 After them, look for\u00a0<strong>Aaron Nola<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>Kyle Freeland,\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0<strong>Patrick Corbin.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Personal Hedge: deGrom is getting enough &#8220;holy cow look at this season&#8221; buzz that it wouldn&#8217;t really surprise me if he won.\u00a0 And he&#8217;d be completely deserving.\u00a0 Btw, as the off-season narratives grew, I became less and less convinced I had this one right.\u00a0 Writing this ahead of the awards, I think deGrom wins.<\/li>\n<li>AL Rookie:\u00a0<strong>Shohei Ohtani<\/strong>: it shouldn&#8217;t be close honestly.\u00a0 He had a 4.0 WAR season, clubbing more than 20 homers and looking pretty darn solid on the mound before the inevitable elbow injury derailed his season and cost him 60 games or so.\u00a0 \u00a0Only\u00a0<strong>Gleybar Torres<\/strong> is close; this should be a unanimous vote and I hope Ohtani comes back from injury sooner than later.\u00a0 Personal Hedge: a vote against Ohtani is really a bad one honestly.<\/li>\n<li>NL Rookie:\u00a0<strong>Ronald Acuna<\/strong>; its Acuna or\u00a0<strong>Juan Soto<\/strong>, both of whom had historic seasons at a young age.\u00a0 \u00a0Acuna&#8217;s monster September pushes him over the top, and his stat line for the season is just slightly better than Soto&#8217;s, despite the missed time.\u00a0 By narrative, Soto would have this hands-down though; he advanced from Low-A to putting up a 4-win season as a 19yr old, has had perhaps the 2nd or 3rd best teen-aged season in the long history of our game, and might have been in the MVP race had the Nats won the division.\u00a0 Hedge: I begrudgingly have to admit that Acuna is slightly better, and rookie status isn&#8217;t given context (ie, its not part of the equation that Soto started the year in Low-A and Acuna was in AAA and a known #1 overall prospect).<\/li>\n<li>AL Manager: hard not to say that\u00a0<strong>Bob Melvin<\/strong>&#8216;s performance taking an expected also-ran to nearly 100 wins isn&#8217;t the Mgr of the year.\u00a0 He&#8217;s on his like 18th starter of the year, he&#8217;s winning with a bunch of non-prospects, he&#8217;s turned trash into treasure (<strong>Blake Treinen<\/strong>).<\/li>\n<li>NL Manager:\u00a0<strong>Brian Snitker<\/strong>, who took the NL east by 8 games in a complete surprise based on nearly every pundit&#8217;s pre-season predictions.\u00a0 No other NL playoff team was really this big of a &#8220;surprise&#8221; so he gets it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Actual Award Results<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>added as they were awarded (updated post-publishing).\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/bbwaa-award-finalists-named\/c-300258452\">Finalists announced<\/a> 11\/4\/18.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>AL MVP:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bbwaa.com\/18-al-mvp\/\">Betts easily 28 of 30 1st place votes<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL MVP<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/bbwaa.com\/18-nl-mvp\/\">Yelich nearly unanimously<\/a>; deGrom got one 1st place vote.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Cy Young<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/bbwaa.com\/18-al-cy\/\">Snell squeaked by Verlander<\/a> with 17 of 30 first place votes to win.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Cy Young<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/bbwaa.com\/18-nl-cy\/\">deGrom nearly unanimously<\/a>, getting 29\/30 first place votes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Rookie<\/strong>: Ohtani in a landslide, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/25259659\/angels-shohei-ohtani-beats-yankees-duo-win-al-rookie-year\">getting 25 of 30 1st place votes<\/a> (Andujar got the other 5).<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Rookie<\/strong>: Acuna, in a landslide, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.masnsports.com\/nationals-pastime\/2018\/11\/soto-finishes-runner-up-to-acuna-for-nl-rookie-of-year.html\">getting 27 of 30 first place votes<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AL Manager:\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/25269619\/bob-melvin-oakland-athletics-named-al-manager-year\">Melvin getting 18 of 30 1st place votes<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NL Manager<\/strong>: Snitker, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.espn.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/25269354\/brian-snitker-atlanta-braves-named-nl-manager-year\">getting 17 of 30 1st place votes<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>My prediction results:\u00a07 for 8\u00a0(missed on my initial deGrom prediction).<\/p>\n<p>Links to other awards that I didn&#8217;t predict this year (again, updated post-publishing as they&#8217;re announced)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2018\/10\/24\/yadier-molina-wins-2018-roberto-clemente-award\/\">Roberto Clemente\u00a0Award<\/a>:\u00a0<strong>Yadier Molina<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2018\/10\/26\/j-d-martinez-and-christian-yelich-win-2018-hank-aaron-awards\/\">Hank Aaron Award<\/a>:\u00a0<strong>J.D. Martinez<\/strong> in the AL,\u00a0<strong>Christian Yelich<\/strong> in the NL.<\/li>\n<li>Gold Gloves: <a href=\"https:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2018\/10\/25\/2018-gold-glove-award-finalists-announced\/\">finalists named on 10\/25\/18<\/a> and include just one National:\u00a0Anthony Rendon.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2018\/11\/04\/mookie-betts-nolan-arenado-among-2018-gold-glove-award-winners\/\">Actual awards named 11\/4\/18<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2018\/10\/27\/edwin-diaz-josh-hader-named-relievers-of-the-year\/\">Relievers of the Year<\/a>: <strong>Edwin Diaz<\/strong> in the AL, <strong>Josh Hader<\/strong>\u00a0(awful tweets and all) in the NL.<\/li>\n<li>Fielding B<a href=\"https:\/\/www.billjamesonline.com\/2018_fielding_bible_awards\/\">https:\/\/www.billjamesonline.com\/2018_fielding_bible_awards\/<\/a>ible:<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2018\/11\/06\/billy-beane-named-executive-of-the-year\/\">MLB Executive of the Year<\/a>:\u00a0<strong>Billy Beane<\/strong> in the inaugural year of this award.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2018\/11\/08\/j-d-martinez-christian-yelich-among-2018-silver-slugger-award-winners\/\">Silver Sluggers<\/a>: No Nats named this year, and no real competitors for the award honestly.<\/li>\n<li>Wilson Defensive Player of the Year:<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbplayers.com\/ViewArticle.dbml?SPID=181325&amp;ATCLID=211782004&amp;DB_OEM_ID=34000\">Comeback Players of the Year<\/a>:\u00a0<strong>Michael Brantley<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Matt Kemp<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>BA Executive of the Year:<\/li>\n<li>Sporting News\u00a0Executive of the Year:<\/li>\n<li>Edgar Martinez DH of the Year:<\/li>\n<li>J.G. Taylor <a href=\"https:\/\/mlb.nbcsports.com\/2018\/12\/11\/jayson-stark-named-winner-of-the-2019-j-g-taylor-spink-award\/\">Spink Reporter\u00a0of the year <\/a>(named at Winter Meetings):\u00a0<strong>Jayson Stark<\/strong> for 2019.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Other links to awards worth noting<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>MLB.com\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/m.mlb.com\/awards\/history-winners\/?award_id=ALPOM\">Players\/Pitchers\/Rookies of the Month<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbplayers.com\/ViewArticle.dbml?SPID=181325&amp;ATCLID=211782004&amp;DB_OEM_ID=34000\">Players choice awards<\/a>: The players choice awards had some interesting choices.\u00a0\u00a0<strong>Miguel Andujar<\/strong> and Acuna for Rookies, Snell and deGrom Pitchers of the year,\u00a0<strong>Curtis Granderson<\/strong> the &#8220;Marvin Miller&#8221; man of the year, etc.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/securea.mlb.com\/mlb\/awards\/y2017\/mlb-awards\/\">Esurance MLB Awards<\/a>:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hi there.\u00a0 Its time to write about the\u00a0&#8220;silly season&#8221; of baseball.\u00a0 \u00a0Its my annual awards predictor piece. Here&#8217;s my predictions for how the awards will go.\u00a0 Important note:\u00a0This is not necessarily how I believe the awards should go, it is how I think the current electorate will vote\u00a0&#8230;\u00a0 though I do tend to believe that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2667,6],"tags":[2432,2789,185,3758,1693,1175,3954,1169,2374,1957,2977,187,1221,3952,2653,2377,3950,3713,3314,44,3951,3404,1037,456,3354,1947,1855,3953,3735,1056],"class_list":["post-15412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-awards","category-nonnatsbaseball","tag-aaron-nola","tag-alex-bregman","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-blake-snell","tag-blake-treinen","tag-bob-melvin","tag-brian-snitker","tag-chris-sale","tag-christian-yelich","tag-corey-kluber","tag-francisco-lindor","tag-freddie-freeman","tag-gerrit-cole","tag-gleybar-torres","tag-jacob-degrom","tag-javier-baez","tag-jd-ramirez","tag-jose-ramirez","tag-juan-soto","tag-justin-verlander","tag-kyle-freeland","tag-matt-chapman","tag-max-scherzer","tag-mike-trout","tag-mookie-betts","tag-nolan-arenado","tag-patrick-corbin","tag-ronald-acuna","tag-shohei-ohtani","tag-trevor-bauer"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15412"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15412\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15576,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15412\/revisions\/15576"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}