![\"The](\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/HarperBrice_gq_Mar2012.jpg\")
<\/a>The off season all revolves around Harper. Photo via GQ Magazine<\/p><\/div>\n
Hey there!\u00a0 If its the Nat’s off-season, it must mean mail bag time.\u00a0 We havn’t seen one from MLB.com beat reporter\u00a0Jamal Collier<\/strong> in a while (what, was he busy or something? \ud83d\ude42 but now we get one with some good discussion-generating questions<\/a>.<\/p>\n Here’s how i’d answer the questions he took.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Q:\u00a0As a fan of the great outfield we had at the end of the year. Are the Nationals considering trading Adam Eaton if they resign Bryce Harper?<\/strong><\/p>\n A: Indeed, an outfield of\u00a0Soto, Eaton,\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0Harper<\/strong> is pretty awesome, if (biiiiig if) all are healthy and producing at optimal levels.\u00a0 And the on top of that we have a top-5 prospect in all of baseball\u00a0Victor Robles<\/strong> who no longer can be kept in the minors.\u00a0 So that’s four solid players who all would start for any team in this league on one team.\u00a0 So what do we do?<\/p>\n Well … only one of these four guys is a Free Agent: Harper<\/p>\n And, only one of these guys is projected to make a ridiculous, franchise altering amount of money in free agency: Harper.<\/p>\n Harper has played for 7 nearly full-seasons: he has a total bWAR figure for his career<\/a> is 27.4.\u00a0 \u00a0That’s an average of 3.9 bWAR per season.\u00a0 Yes he had a monster 10 win season in his MVP season of 2015, but he’s also lost huge portions of several seasons to injury.\u00a0 And that has to be part of the conversation when you consider whether you commit $200M to him for the next 7 years.<\/p>\n For me the answer is easy.\u00a0\u00a0Juan Soto<\/strong> will make the MLB minimum (or near to it) next year; call it $600k.\u00a0 He generated 3.0 bWAR<\/a> in 116 games, which projects to a 4.1 Win season with 162 games.\u00a0 I’d rather pay Soto $600k to give the team the same expected level of production as Harper would for 30-TIMES more money.\u00a0 \u00a0You let Harper walk, you go to war in 2019 with Soto in left, Robles in center, Eaton in right, finally have three outfields all in the “right” positions defensively, and then deal with a 4th outfielder from internal candidates.<\/p>\n NOW.\u00a0 Letting a tranformative player like Harper go is … well its an “above the GM” decision.\u00a0 Not only because of the impact on payroll, but because of his role with the team.\u00a0 He’s a massively marketable star, transformative not just for the team but for the sport of professional baseball.\u00a0 His $30M\/year salary (or whatever he wants) is not just about payroll; you can’t put a price tag on the marketability of a player of his stature and what it means for the team.\u00a0 He puts “butts in the seats.”\u00a0 He is in national commercial ad campaigns.\u00a0 He’s a foil (for better or for worse) across the sport.\u00a0 Do you just let a guy like this walk?\u00a0 They’re getting basically *nothing* back for him (a compensation pick between the 4th and 5th rounds, thanks to the criminally poor job the team did in managing the luxury cap over the last two years), so that barely factors into the discussion.<\/p>\n Now, lets say, for the sake of argument, that the team does re-sign Harper.\u00a0 Yeah for me, if you re-sign Harper, you’re going to have to move either Eaton or Robles.\u00a0 So … which do you move?\u00a0 \u00a0Eaton, like Harper, has been just crushed by injury the last two years, producing a fraction of his value<\/a>\u00a0the 3 years prior.\u00a0 So even though he’s still quite affordable, trading him this off-season would be trading pretty low.\u00a0 Robles is still the unknown; yeah he’s an amazing prospect, but is he going to have a Juan Soto-like 2019?\u00a0 Robles can be the centerpiece of a trade that could return a significant player in an area of need for this team (mid-level Starter or quality starting Catcher).\u00a0 Would you prefer to go that route?<\/p>\n For me; i’m on record.\u00a0 I want to part ways with Harper, field a starting OF that costs less than half of a one-year Harper salary figure and allocate his projected payroll towards other areas of need.<\/p>\n Collier echos my concerns about trading Eaton low, but also notes that … well this is THE decision that the team faces, probably the biggest one in a decade.\u00a0 We can’t know until the Harper decision is made.<\/em><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What’s Michael A. Taylor’s future with this team?<\/strong><\/p>\n A: For me, despite\u00a0Michael Taylor<\/strong>‘ awesome 2017 season<\/a>, he’s reverted back to form.\u00a0 He’s a 4th outfielder.\u00a0 Great defensively, poor offensively.\u00a0 Can play all three OF positions, plays CF excellently.\u00a0 But he still strikes out 33% of the time and cannot be trusted.\u00a0 After his 2018, its not like he has real trade value, and he’s now also arbitration eligible so he’s not exactly cheap.\u00a0 Is he a non-tender candidate?\u00a0 Probably not, but assuming the team goes with my plan of letting Harper walk and going with a starting OF of Soto-Robles-Eaton, then for me Taylor is an ideal 4th and competes in the spring with\u00a0Andrew Stevenson<\/strong> for that role.\u00a0 He should win it, then be coupled with a corner-OF bench bat type who can play LF in a pinch.<\/p>\n Honestly, you learned everything you needed to know by looking at the amount of playing time Taylor got this past September once Robles came up.\u00a0 Almost none.<\/p>\n Now, if the team reasigns Harper?\u00a0 I don’t think much changes; the team moves either Eaton or Robles, still leaving Taylor as the 4th.<\/p>\n Collier thinks they’ll explore moving him “before his trade value falls anymore.” Uh … too late dude!<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Q:\u00a0Who are the free agent starting pitchers that Nationals will attempt to sign?<\/strong><\/p>\n A: Taking a quick gander at the list of available starters<\/a> …\u00a0 there’s all kinds of interesting names.\u00a0 Who knows who they may end up with.<\/p>\n Lets start with, what do they need?\u00a0 They’re keeping\u00a0Scherzer, Strasburg, Roark,\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0Ross<\/strong>.\u00a0 They can either go to war with a 5th starter like\u00a0Fedde<\/strong> or\u00a0McGowin<\/strong> or\u00a0Voth<\/strong> or\u00a0Jefry Rodriguez<\/strong>, or look at free agency to improve the back end.\u00a0 I’d love to get a 3rd starter-quality guy to slot in behind the big two, then hope for a better season from Roark (something closer to 2016 than 2018), and hope for Ross to come back to what we know he’s capable of.\u00a0 That’s a potentially solid rotation for me.<\/p>\n We also might be focusing on a lefty, since\u00a0Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> was our only lefty starter.\u00a0 But I don’t think that should be a huge factor honestly.\u00a0 The team needs to find the best value and availability.<\/p>\n I don’t see them pursuing a $20M\/year guy.\u00a0 Not with the amount of money already going to their two #1 starters and certainly not given the possibilty of their re-signing Harper.<\/p>\n So, lets think about middle-of-the road lefty veteran starters.\u00a0 How about someone like a\u00a0Jaime Garcia<\/strong>, or\u00a0Hyung-Jin Ryu<\/strong>?<\/p>\n If they can’t land a lefty, there’s a slew of interesting names out there that are righties.\u00a0 I like\u00a0Nathan Eovaldi<\/strong>,\u00a0Wade Miley, Garrett Richards.<\/strong><\/p>\n Collier hedges and says the obvious; we won’t know until they decide what they’re doing with Harper.\u00a0 Yeah i get it.\u00a0 He mentions that\u00a0Patrick Corbin<\/strong> is probably out of the conversation (duh; he’ll be like the 4th most expensive player this off-season) and mentions re-upping with Jeremy Hellickson<\/strong>,\u00a0<\/strong>which I don’t think happens b\/c he pitched himself into a decent sized contract..\u00a0 Its also worth mentioning; maybe the team goes the trade route, which opens up the realm of possibles to half the league’s starters if they’re willing to give up Robles or\u00a0Carter Kieboom<\/strong> in trade.<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Q:\u00a0At what point will the Nats start looking for a more durable first baseman? Zim has averaged only 100 games a season over the last five years.<\/strong><\/p>\n A:\u00a0 Uh, the second\u00a0Ryan Zimmerman<\/strong> isn’t guaranteed 8 figures a year?\u00a0 And, by the way, what is this guy missing with the current roster construction?\u00a0 We were nearly to the point of an 1980s Orioles\u00a0John Lowenstein<\/strong>\/Gary Roenecke<\/strong> type platoon this year between Zimmerman and the lefty hitting\u00a0Matt Adams<\/strong>.\u00a0 The team is already mitigating Zimmerna’s annual health issues with a backup.<\/p>\n And guess what?\u00a0 They’ll do it again this off-season.\u00a0 Look for the team to sign another\u00a0Adams clone, someone like\u00a0Lucas Duda<\/strong> or\u00a0Steve Pearce\u00a0<\/strong>or\u00a0Pedro Alvarez<\/strong>.\u00a0 Heck, maybe they’ll re-sign Adams.<\/p>\n Collier basically says the same thing I did.<\/em><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0Will Riz let Difo and Kieboom fight it out for 2b in spring training or will he look for a veteran 2b, using Kendrick in a super utility role?<\/strong><\/p>\n A: The question probably should have read: “Wil Rizzo let Difo<\/strong> and\u00a0Howie Kendrick<\/strong> fight it out…”\u00a0 Because Kieboom aint’ making this team in 2019.\u00a0 For one, he’s never played 2B professionally.\u00a0 Not that its a heavy lift going from SS to 2B (it isn’t) .. but he’s also just 60-some games removed from A-Ball<\/a>.\u00a0 Kieboom needs to go from the AFL back to AA and return his OPS figures back to the .880 level before even being considered for AAA.<\/p>\n
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