{"id":15603,"date":"2018-12-27T10:48:13","date_gmt":"2018-12-27T15:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15603"},"modified":"2018-12-27T10:48:13","modified_gmt":"2018-12-27T15:48:13","slug":"ask-collier-122618-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15603","title":{"rendered":"Ask Collier 12\/26\/18 Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Did<\/a>

Did the team make the right decision on Roark? Photo Alex Brandon\/AP via wp.com<\/p><\/div>\n

MLB.com Nats beat reporter\u00a0Jamal Collier<\/strong> gives us a holiday gift with a post-Xmas mailbag dated 12\/26\/18<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here’s how I would have answered the questions he took.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0It Harper comes back to the Nats looking for 330\/10, do the Nats go over the tax or let him walk?<\/p>\n

A: Isn’t it obvious by now?\u00a0 You let him walk.\u00a0 I think this was pretty clear from two observations:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Mike Rizzo<\/strong> has already spent his $30M AAV, and spent it quickly<\/li>\n
  2. Mark Lerner<\/strong> pretty much said as much in ill-advised remarks to a reporter.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The Luxury Tax strikes yet again; the Lerner family, multi-billionaires, will not spend an additional 10-15M above some imaginary payroll number to keep one of the league’s most marketable players.\u00a0 \u00a0Player salaries actually FELL for the first time in two decades, as clubs in total spent less than they have since 2004<\/a>.\u00a0 \u00a0Maybe one of these big-spending clubs will break the bank and hand\u00a0Bryce Harper<\/strong> and\u00a0Scott Boras<\/strong> their goal; the largest contract in the history of the game.\u00a0 But it sounds like its a reach, and it definitely doesn’t seem to be happening in Washington.<\/p>\n

    Collier refuses to get into hypotheticals, then notes that the Luxury tax for last year was “only” a couple million dollars.\u00a0 Yeah, and only a couple of high-end draft picks, and only the reason why the club fired one of Rizzo’s most trusted advisors for absolutely screwing it up.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

    —-<\/p>\n

    Q:\u00a0Roark trade more about getting a LHP or the analytics told them he was on MAJOR decline year? $10M for innings eater is the going rate<\/p>\n

    A: I think the team was taking a calculated gamble that\u00a0Tanner Roark<\/strong>‘s best years are behind him.\u00a0 \u00a0Despite appearances or opinions, Roark was basically a league average pitcher last year.\u00a0 That’s a significant step ABOVE a replacement level\/5th starter type.\u00a0 But, he’s been trending down, he’s heading into his age 32 year, and the team thought it could spend his $10M better.\u00a0 I don’t think lefty versus righty had anything to do with it.\u00a0 Of course, they basically replaced him with an even older\u00a0Anibal Sanchez<\/strong>, so sorry for sounding hypocritical on his age.\u00a0 But while Roark struggled to even get to his 98 ERA+ figure last year … Sanchez had a late-career ephiphany that led him to being one of the top pitchers in all of baseball for the 2nd half of last year.\u00a0 A better trend line in the end.<\/p>\n

    Collier agrees, that this was a gamble betting that Roark is set to regress in 2019.<\/em><\/p>\n

    —<\/p>\n

    Q:\u00a0If the Nats go out and sign one or two back end of the rotation starters, what does that do to the development of Joe Ross and Erick Fedde? Moved to the bullpen? Sent to Triple A?<\/p>\n

    A: I’d have a hard time seeing the Nats signing a MLB-contract for another starter at this point, because\u00a0Joe Ross<\/strong> has nothing to prove in AAA.\u00a0 But\u00a0Erick Fedde<\/strong> does.\u00a0 \u00a0Joe Ross has proven he can be an effective MLB starter, with his 125 ERA+ in 19 starts in 2016 as evidence.\u00a0 \u00a0Now he’ll be 26, with a new elbow, and looking to answer the question whether he’s back from TJ surgery.\u00a0 For me, for a relatively affordable salary (1st year arb estimate of $2.5M), that’s a great gamble to go with on your 5th starter.\u00a0 If he suddenly comes out in 2016 mode, 20-25% above league average<\/p>\n

    Technically both players have one minor league option left, so the team could opt to send them both to Fresno to get lit up in PCL parks and prove nothing.\u00a0 I expect that for Fedde and we’ll have to take his stats with a grain of salt.<\/p>\n

    That being said, I do expect the team to sign at least one more MLFA veteran starter in the\u00a0Jeremy Hellickson<\/strong> ilk, to go to Fresno and be some rotation insurance\/catch lightning in a bottle again.<\/p>\n

    collier kind of gives a non-answer, but he does think Ross could work out of the bullpen (I don’t).<\/em><\/p>\n

    —<\/p>\n

    Q:\u00a0\u00a0In my opinion, 2B is their biggest [remaining] priority. Any movement on that front? There are so many available as an upgrade!<\/p>\n

    A: Well, either 2B or maybe more middle relief help.\u00a0 Right now the team is looking at this for each spot:<\/p>\n