{"id":15627,"date":"2019-01-14T09:28:04","date_gmt":"2019-01-14T14:28:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15627"},"modified":"2019-01-14T09:28:04","modified_gmt":"2019-01-14T14:28:04","slug":"ask-collier-11119","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15627","title":{"rendered":"Ask Collier 1\/11\/19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Harper<\/a>

Harper Harper Harper. Photo Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

On deadline day for doing arbitration contracts, MLB beat reporter\u00a0Jamal Collier<\/strong> did a mailbag<\/a>.\u00a0 Its been a notable week with more\u00a0Bryce Harper<\/strong> rumors and the Nats running their payroll right up to the limits of the Luxury tax cap with the\u00a0Brian Dozier<\/strong> signing.<\/p>\n

Here’s the questions he took:<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0Harper is on my mind. Spring Training is days away. Aren’t the guys worried about will happen? No way they can be just “whatever,” right? Especially if he ends up in Philly?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: If they can’t figure out from the slew of\u00a0Mike Rizzo<\/strong> moves what the team’s intention is with Bryce Harper<\/strong> by now … well maybe a sledgehammer would be more subtle.\u00a0 Its mid January and Rizzo has made 8 moves that should impact the opening day 25-man roster and another 2-3 that may be impactful down the road.\u00a0 He’s now got the payroll north of $190M.<\/p>\n

So what if he goes to Philly?\u00a0 I think the whole “don’t trade within the division” is nonsense.\u00a0 Yeah we’ll see him a lot.\u00a0 But its a closed loop; he has to go to one of the 30 teams in the league, and we are bound to see him no matter who he plays for.\u00a0 There’s 30 teams, and only half of them are even frigging trying to win right now, and then halve that again for those who even have payroll room to compete for Harper (or\u00a0Machado<\/strong>).\u00a0 And Philly is one of them.<\/p>\n

As far as “the guys” … are you talking about his team-mates?\u00a0 Well one of two things would be true about his teammates:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. They hate his guts and are like, “good riddance.”<\/li>\n
  2. They are his fellow union members and want him to get every dollar possible because their union so royally screwed them selves in the last couple of CBA negotiations.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Collier notes that his fellow players know this is “part of the business” that Harper may eventually leave, and that he’s been a national figure since he was 16.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

    —<\/p>\n

    Q:\u00a0If Harper re-signed with the Nationals, how would they work the outfield? Would\u00a0Victor Robles<\/a>\u00a0start the season in Minors? Or would they trade Eaton?<\/b><\/p>\n

    A: You’d have to trade\u00a0Adam Eaton<\/strong>.\u00a0 And you’d be trading low.\u00a0 You can’t move\u00a0Juan Soto<\/strong> … he’s making MLB Min and could be an MVP candidate.\u00a0 You really shouldn’t move\u00a0Victor Robles<\/strong>; he’s supposed to be a *better* prospect than Soto, so you’re hoping for 4-5 win performance for (again) MLB min salary.\u00a0 These are the kinds of players you keep when you’re trying to win.\u00a0 Putting Robles in the minors would be an absolute waste, and if that was their plan then i’d advocate attempting to flip him as a centerpiece for a top 20 player in the league (like a\u00a0Corey Kluber<\/strong> or something).<\/p>\n

    Collier agrees<\/em>.<\/p>\n

    —<\/p>\n

    Q:\u00a0If Harper returns, how does it change how the team will handle\u00a0Anthony Rendon<\/a>\u00a0negotiations?<\/b><\/p>\n

    A: Hmm.\u00a0 That’s a good question, because despite the fact that\u00a0Anthony Rendon<\/strong> dropped in the draft over injury questions he’s actually been pretty solid as a pro.\u00a0 I liken Rendon’s reputation and capabilities to\u00a0Adrian Beltre<\/strong>; fantastic defender, sneaky good at the plate, and suddenly you look up and he’s put up a hall of fame career.<\/p>\n

    Will that translate into a $200m salary?\u00a0 Probably not.\u00a0 But Rendon is no dummy, and neither is his agent\u00a0Scott Boras<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    That being said … can the Nats do this whole “stars and scrubs” thing for ever?\u00a0 If you have 5-6 guys on high 8-figure salaries (Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Harper, Rendon<\/strong>) can you put a good enough team behind them?<\/p>\n

    I personally think Rendon is an incredibly important player for this team, even if he isn’t that high a profile.\u00a0 And because he’s not high profile, I think you can get him for $20M\/year or something like that on a longer term deal, which would be a steal value-wise.\u00a0 I hope committing money to Harper doesn’t close the door on a Rendon negotiation.<\/p>\n

    Collier says …. he has no idea, nor does Rizzo.<\/em><\/p>\n

    —<\/p>\n

    Q:\u00a0How should we look at 2019 Dozier replacing ’18\u00a0Daniel Murphy<\/a>? Both are above-average offensive second baseman with liability at fielding. Is this an upgrade, downgrade or equal move?<\/b><\/p>\n

    A: Absolutely an upgrade; Daniel Murphy<\/strong> had negative bWAR last year while even playing through injury\u00a0Brian Dozier<\/strong> contributed.\u00a0 If Dozier is healthy and performs at his 2015-2016 level again … watch out this is one of the steal signings of the off-season.<\/p>\n

    Collier basically agrees and gives good contextual numbers.<\/em><\/p>\n

    —<\/p>\n

    Q:\u00a0Do you think Washington will add a starter? If it does, I think\u00a0Wade Miley<\/a>\u00a0is fine.<\/b><\/p>\n

    A: I think they will … but not a guy to replace\u00a0Joe Ross<\/strong> in the rotation.\u00a0 I think they’ll be looking for MLFAs with 5\/1 or 6\/1 buy-outs, like\u00a0Edwin Jackson<\/strong> or\u00a0Tommy Milone<\/strong> signings last year.\u00a0 I can’t see them breaking the luxury tax for a 5th starter.<\/p>\n

    Collier agrees, remembering that the team has already signed\u00a0Henderson Alvarez<\/strong> for just such reasons.<\/em><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    On deadline day for doing arbitration contracts, MLB beat reporter\u00a0Jamal Collier did a mailbag.\u00a0 Its been a notable week with more\u00a0Bryce Harper rumors and the Nats running their payroll right up to the limits of the Luxury tax cap with the\u00a0Brian Dozier signing. Here’s the questions he took: — Q:\u00a0Harper is on my mind. Spring […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3142,796,185,1942,164,1957,1859,253,2060,3391,3314,1753,1037,129,1855,180,38,34,2757,1178],"class_list":["post-15627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-adam-eaton","tag-adrian-beltre","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-brian-dozier","tag-bryce-harper","tag-corey-kluber","tag-daniel-murphy","tag-edwin-jackson","tag-henderson-alvarez","tag-jamal-collier","tag-juan-soto","tag-manny-machado","tag-max-scherzer","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-patrick-corbin","tag-scott-boras","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tommy-milone","tag-victor-robles","tag-wade-miley"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15627"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15627\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15631,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15627\/revisions\/15631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}