{"id":15636,"date":"2019-01-27T14:25:45","date_gmt":"2019-01-27T19:25:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15636"},"modified":"2019-01-27T14:27:38","modified_gmt":"2019-01-27T19:27:38","slug":"ask-collier-12819","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=15636","title":{"rendered":"Ask Collier 1\/28\/19"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_15641\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MartinezDavey-uponsigning-via-Geoff-Burke-usatoday.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15641\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15641\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-15641\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MartinezDavey-uponsigning-via-Geoff-Burke-usatoday-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"it was all downhill from here for Martinez. Photo via Geoff Burke\/USA today\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MartinezDavey-uponsigning-via-Geoff-Burke-usatoday-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MartinezDavey-uponsigning-via-Geoff-Burke-usatoday-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MartinezDavey-uponsigning-via-Geoff-Burke-usatoday-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/MartinezDavey-uponsigning-via-Geoff-Burke-usatoday.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-15641\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">it was all downhill from here for Martinez. Photo via Geoff Burke\/USA today<\/p><\/div>\n<p>I&#8217;ll admit, I&#8217;m struggling for content this off-season.\u00a0 I love nearly all the moves the Nats have made, as one of (arguably) only about 6 teams that actually seem to be trying to improve themselves in the FA market this off-season.\u00a0 Thank gosh for these Inbox\/mailbags to give me a chance to opine on the state of the Nationals.<\/p>\n<p>Latest one from MLB.com beat reporter\u00a0<strong>Jamal Collier<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/is-bryce-harper-intrigued-by-nats-activity\/c-303133918\">dated 1\/25\/19<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Q:\u00a0<b>With all the additions they have made, can that help in keeping Harper in Washington or is that a negative factor?<\/b><\/p>\n<p>A: I can&#8217;t imagine how these moves have been a negative for anyone, Team, Fans or <strong>Harper<\/strong>.\u00a0 If Harper was re-signed, and the team made the decision to go well over the luxury tax to do so, then the team is going to be better for it.\u00a0 Lets be honest with ourselves; if there was no ridiculous luxury tax, would we even be debating this?\u00a0 Yes, there&#8217;s a clear debate on value versus pay, given his injury history and general inability to stay healthy.\u00a0 But we&#8217;re still talking about one of the most marketable players in the game, a guy who you build around, not try to repel away.\u00a0 If the going rate is $9M\/WAR &#8230; then a 4 win season (his average since arriving in the league) will make a $35M\/year AAV contract &#8220;worth it.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>After watching all the other moves the team has made this off-season, which have essentially filled every hole we had, and then adding Harper back to the mix?\u00a0 Yeah that&#8217;d be a hard team to beat.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m of the opinion (a difficult to quantify one of course), that Harper played it very conservatively in 2018 knowing he was going into a FA year.\u00a0 I also wonder about his relationship with the new manager (we&#8217;ll get into that more later).\u00a0 If he comes back, knowing he had security and his big pay check &#8230; wouldn&#8217;t you be betting on a massive 2019 for him?\u00a0 Like another 8-10 win season?\u00a0 I mean, I&#8217;d like him to do that for us and not for the Phillies.<\/p>\n<p>Its just money right?\u00a0 And, its not our money.\u00a0 The Nats can&#8217;t draft past the 1st round anyway (quick; tell me the last time a 2nd round pick worked out for this team?), so who cares if we forgo a few draft picks.<\/p>\n<p><em>Collier thinks signing Harper would be a positive.\u00a0 duh.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Q:\u00a0<strong>What does Davey have to do in Spring Training \/ the early season to prove himself after last season?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A:\u00a0 Is he really called &#8220;Davey?&#8221;\u00a0 What is he, 12?\u00a0 \u00a0I&#8217;m not sure I particularly care about what he does in the Spring (with the exception of #1 below).\u00a0 His regular season performance is what is going to matter obviously.\u00a0 What mistakes do we think rookie manager\u00a0<strong>Dave Martinez<\/strong> made in 2018?\u00a0 For me:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Failed to manage his veteran players from the start (see\u00a0<strong>Ryan Zimmerman<\/strong>&#8216;s play zero games spring training, and see\u00a0<strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong>&#8216;s transactions in ridding the team of veteran relievers at the trade deadline).<\/li>\n<li>Over used starters (at one point last last season the Nats rotation led the league in both IP and pitches thrown)<\/li>\n<li>Over used crummy relievers (the fact that\u00a0<strong>Sammy Solis<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Ryan Madsen<\/strong> were ever allowed to throw as many innings as they did was crucial to the team&#8217;s demise in late innings)<\/li>\n<li>Showed poor end-game management (resulting in a -8 pythag record on the season, a 4-10 extra innings record, and an 18-24 record in one-run games)<\/li>\n<li>Had questionable management decisions in all other aspects of his job: lineup creation, shifting, double switches, strategy, etc.).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So.\u00a0 One year in, with his &#8220;problem children&#8221; mostly now gone, he&#8217;ll have another shot at &#8220;controlling&#8221; the clubhouse.\u00a0 He&#8217;ll have learned his lesson on starters.\u00a0 He&#8217;ll have a whole new stable of relievers to abuse.\u00a0 \u00a0And he&#8217;ll have a year of in-game practice to learn from all the other mistakes he made.\u00a0 So call 2018 a big internship for Martinez.\u00a0 I suspect we&#8217;ll see him do better.<\/p>\n<p>And, to be fair &#8230; he should have better relievers at his disposal, or at least some more street cred to demand for personnel moves earlier.<\/p>\n<p><em>Collier notes the need for improved &#8220;messaging&#8221; related to Zimmerman&#8217;s 2018 situation.\u00a0 But he notes spring training means nothing.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Q:\u00a0<strong>How likely is it that the Nats go out and improve their bullpen even more before the offseason is over?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A:\u00a0 At this point &#8230; i&#8217;m not sure how likely this is.\u00a0 They&#8217;re pretty tapped out from a payroll perspective.\u00a0 I&#8217;ve got them at about $13M under the luxury cap, Cots has them about $10.9M\u00a0 under the cap.\u00a0 And those cap figures do not include any of the incentives built into the contracts of the many players who could earn them.\u00a0 From what I can tell, these are the &#8220;hidden&#8221; incentives that may come back to pad the 2019 salary cap figure:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Stephen Strasburg<\/strong> gets $1M if he hits 180 innings (he&#8217;s done it twice, but not in his last four seasons, each of which had a month or so of D\/L time).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Max Scherzer<\/strong> has all sorts of award bonuses ranging from $100k to $500k for various awards he can earn.\u00a0 He&#8217;s been in top 3 of Cy Young voting every year, so it seems likely some money is spent here).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Patrick Corbin<\/strong>\u00a0 has similar award-based bonuses.\u00a0 What are the odds Corbin can repeat his 2018 performance and have another top3 Cy season?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Anibal Sanchez<\/strong> can earn up to $2M if he gets to 30 starts.\u00a0 He&#8217;s done it 3 times, all many years ago in his\u00a0 youth, but he may get some additional bonuses for lesser number of starts.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Trevor Rosenthal<\/strong> has all sorts of bonuses based on games pitched, games finished &#8230; its complicated, but if he pitches in 50 games (as he did in his last season 2017) he can earn another $4-$5M.\u00a0 This is the big danger line item.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Howie Kendrick<\/strong> has per-season bonuses worth $1.1M based on plate appearances.\u00a0 Based on injury recovery and the buying of\u00a0<strong>Brian Dozier<\/strong>, this seems unlikely to be met.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So &#8230;. that&#8217;s a lot of money that could hit the books and jack up the 2019 payroll very close to the cap.\u00a0 \u00a0So ask yourself; what do you think the team is going to do?<\/p>\n<p>I think the team is going to go one of two ways:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>stand pat if the luxury tax is treated as a hard cap<\/li>\n<li>Sign Harper, blow way past, throw caution to the wind and keep signing guys.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Collier kind of gives a wishy washy answer,\u00a0 saying well maybe!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Q:\u00a0\u00a0<strong>How would you rank the likelihood of: Nats re-signing Harper, Nats re-signing Rendon, both, neither?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: At this point, i&#8217;ll give the following percentage likelihoods:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Harper: 5%.\u00a0 I think Harper is going to follow the paycheck and end up with literally the only team bidding on him; the Phillies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rendon<\/strong>: 65%.\u00a0 I think he likes it here, I think he&#8217;s a great bet to age gracefully, and will be the next Zimmerman &#8220;face of the franchise&#8221; kind of guy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Collier kind of agrees, thinking the most likely scenario is signing Rendon, not Harper.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Q:\u00a0<strong>Who are the candidates for a surprise break out season?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A: A &#8220;surprise&#8221; breakout season?\u00a0 Well if\u00a0<strong>Victor Robles<\/strong> blows it out and wins the Rookie of the Year i don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s a surprise.\u00a0 I&#8217;ll go with newly added reliever\u00a0<strong>James Bourque<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><em>Collier has almost the same answer as me \ud83d\ude42<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ll admit, I&#8217;m struggling for content this off-season.\u00a0 I love nearly all the moves the Nats have made, as one of (arguably) only about 6 teams that actually seem to be trying to improve themselves in the FA market this off-season.\u00a0 Thank gosh for these Inbox\/mailbags to give me a chance to opine on the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[777,185,1942,164,3733,1940,3993,2924,1037,129,1855,2952,36,19,38,1261,2757],"class_list":["post-15636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chatmailbag-responses","tag-anibal-sanchez","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-brian-dozier","tag-bryce-harper","tag-dave-martinez","tag-howie-kendrick","tag-jamal-callier","tag-james-bourque","tag-max-scherzer","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-patrick-corbin","tag-ryan-madsen","tag-ryan-zimmerman","tag-sammy-solis","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-trevor-rosenthal","tag-victor-robles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15636"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15636\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15645,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15636\/revisions\/15645"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}