{"id":16302,"date":"2019-11-21T10:17:04","date_gmt":"2019-11-21T15:17:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16302"},"modified":"2019-11-27T09:39:34","modified_gmt":"2019-11-27T14:39:34","slug":"nats-40-man-option-status-for-2020-and-what-it-means-for-the-off-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16302","title":{"rendered":"Nat’s 40-man Option Status for 2020 and what it means for the off-season"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Ross<\/a>

Ross is one of the tougher options crunch players the Nats have to decide upon this off-season.
Photo Getty Images via federalbaseball.com<\/p><\/div>\n

We’ve alluded to this point in multiple comments under past comments, but its time to put pencil to paper.<\/p>\n

Right now (ahead of any FA signings), the Nats 40-man roster sits at 31 players, with\u00a0Ben Braymer<\/strong> having been added to avoid Rule-5 exposure yesterday … and one third of those players are out of options for next season.\u00a0 A number of those players also seem to have little chance of actually making an active roster of a major league team, which means that they could be early off-season outright fodder if the team wants to try to slip them through waivers and outright them back into the system.<\/p>\n

Lets take a quick run through each of the categories of Nats 40-man players and option status.<\/p>\n

(by the way, yes I know its a 26-man roster in 2020; all my XLSs need updating).<\/p>\n

Category 1:\u00a0 Vets who can refuse demotion (5 or more years of service) – 6 current players<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Player<\/th>2020 25-man opening day Guess<\/th>Service Time post 2019<\/th>First Added to 40-man<\/th>Option Years Used<\/th>Options left?<\/th>Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Scherzer, Max<\/td>x<\/td>11.079<\/td>May 2007<\/td>2008<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Eaton, Adam<\/td>x<\/td>7.030<\/td>Sept 2012<\/td>2013<\/td>2<\/td>Achieved 5yrs service time mid 2017<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Doolittle, Sean<\/td>x<\/td>7.122<\/td>Nov 2010<\/td>2011,2012<\/td>1<\/td>Achieved 5yrs service time mid 2017<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Suzuki, Kurt<\/td>x<\/td>12.113<\/td>Jun 2007<\/td>none<\/td>3<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Corbin, Patrick<\/td>x<\/td>7.105<\/td>Apr 2012<\/td>2012<\/td>2<\/td>Achieved 5yrs svc in 2017<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sanchez, Anibal<\/td>x<\/td>13.083<\/td>Nov 2005<\/td>2006<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

Interestingly, the Nats roster last\u00a0 year had no less than 16 such players; Veterans with 5+ years of service who could refuse demotion\/make any available options immaterial.\u00a0 Indeed, it was a veteran team.\u00a0 Now 10 of those guys are FAs or out of the organization.<\/p>\n

Category 2:\u00a0Options Avail but are MLB entrenched – 5 current players<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Player<\/th>2020 25-man opening day Guess<\/th>Service Time post 2019<\/th>First Added to 40-man<\/th>Option Years Used<\/th>Options left?<\/th>Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Turner, Trea<\/td>x<\/td>3.135<\/td>Aug 2015<\/td>2016<\/td>2<\/td>still pissed he was called up so early, but he's in AAA to start 2016, which preserved an extra yr of control but did not save Super2 status for 2019<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Soto, Juan<\/td>x<\/td>1.134<\/td>May 2018<\/td>none<\/td>3<\/td>yet to be optioned<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Robles, Victor<\/td>x<\/td>1.052<\/td>Sep 2017<\/td>2018<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Suero, Wander<\/td>x<\/td>1.123<\/td>Nov 2017<\/td>2018<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rainey, Tanner<\/td>x<\/td>0.158<\/td>Apr 2018<\/td>2018,2019<\/td>1<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nJk<\/p>\n

Not much to see here; all 5 of these guys are important parts of next\u00a0 year’s team.\u00a0 As noted, the early call up of\u00a0Trea Turner<\/strong> eventually came back to bite the team, and probably costs them in the range of $10-$12M in payroll over the course of his four arbitration periods.\u00a0 An expensive mistake.<\/p>\n

Category 3:\u00a0Options Available, jeopardizing 2019 25-man roster status – 3 current players<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t
Player<\/th>2020 25-man opening day Guess<\/th>Service Time post 2019<\/th>First Added to 40-man<\/th>Option Years Used<\/th>Options left?<\/th>Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Glover, Koda<\/td><\/td>3.051<\/td>July 2016<\/td>2016<\/td>2<\/td>No option used in 2018 or 2019; either hurt or on roster<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stevenson, Andrew<\/td><\/td>1.063<\/td>July 2017<\/td>2018,2019<\/td>1<\/td>Optioned but recalled too fast in 2017 for it to count<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kieboom, Carter<\/td><\/td>0.012<\/td>Apr 2019<\/td>2019<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

I suppose one could make the argument that\u00a0Carter Kieboom<\/strong> should be in the Category 2; right now we don’t really have a 2B or a 3B on the roster and he could play either.\u00a0 But for now, i’m going on first impressions … and he did not make a good one early in the season.<\/p>\n

Category 4:\u00a0Options almost guaranteed to be used in 2018 – 7 current players<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Player<\/th>2020 25-man opening day Guess<\/th>Service Time post 2019<\/th>First Added to 40-man<\/th>Option Years Used<\/th>Options left?<\/th>Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
McGowin, Kyle<\/td><\/td>0.069<\/td>Sept 2018<\/td>2019<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Williams, Austen<\/td><\/td>1.028<\/td>Sept 2018<\/td>none<\/td>3<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bourque, James<\/td><\/td>0.005<\/td>Nov 2018<\/td>2019<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Barrera, Tres<\/td><\/td>0.022<\/td>Sept 2019<\/td>none<\/td>3<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Barrett, Aaron<\/td><\/td>2.170<\/td>Nov 2013<\/td>2014<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Noll, Jake<\/td><\/td>0.017<\/td>mar 2019<\/td>2019<\/td>2<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

I’m guessing that if any of these six players start on the active roster next opening day, then we’ve had a huge injury spike in Spring Training.\u00a0\u00a0Is\u00a0Austen Williams<\/strong> healthy?\u00a0 Was\u00a0Aaron Barrett<\/strong>‘s call-up more than just a feel-good story?\u00a0 We’ll see.\u00a0 Nonetheless, it seems like all 6 of these guys are in AAA next year to start.<\/p>\n

Note<\/strong>: I wrote this prior to the rule-5 additions\u00a0Ben Braymer<\/strong>.\u00a0 So technically this section is 7 current players, not 6.\u00a0 But I think its safe to say that our new rule5 additions are guaranteed to both start the year in the minors in 2020.<\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

Which leaves us with…<\/p>\n

Category 5:\u00a0 No Options Available – 10 current players of the 30 on the active roster.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Player<\/th>2020 25-man opening day Guess<\/th>Service Time post 2019<\/th>First Added to 40-man<\/th>Option Years Used<\/th>Options left?<\/th>Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Guerra, Javy<\/td>x<\/td>4.415<\/td>Nov 2009<\/td>?<\/td>0<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Strickland, Hunter<\/td>x<\/td>4.163<\/td>Nov 2012<\/td>?<\/td>0<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Taylor, Michael<\/td>x<\/td>4.129<\/td>Nov 2013<\/td>2014,2016,2019<\/td>0<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Elias, Roenis<\/td>x<\/td>4.069<\/td>Mar 2014<\/td>?<\/td>0<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ross, Joe<\/td>x<\/td>4.018<\/td>June 2015<\/td>2015,2017,2019<\/td>0<\/td>Optioned for roster reasons in 2017.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Difo, Wilmer<\/td>x<\/td>3.016<\/td>Nov 2014<\/td>2015,2016,2018<\/td>0<\/td>Optioned but recalled too fast in 2017 for it to count<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fedde, Erick<\/td>x<\/td>1.099<\/td>July 2017<\/td>2017,2018,2019<\/td>0<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sanchez, Adrian<\/td><\/td>1.083<\/td>June 2017<\/td>2017,2018,2019<\/td>0<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Voth, Austin<\/td><\/td>0.127<\/td>Nov 2016<\/td>2017,2018,2019<\/td>0<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Read, Raudy<\/td><\/td>0.063<\/td>Nov 2016<\/td>2017,2018,2019<\/td>0<\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

So, this is kind of the point of this article.\u00a0 Which of these 10 players are going to stick, which are players the team has to make some tough decisions on?\u00a0 Lets go player by player in the order they are in this table (which is sorted by Service time):<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Guerra, Javy<\/strong>: the team outrighted him mid-season, then recalled him the next day and he eventually made the post-season roster.\u00a0 An odd set of circumstances for a DFA.\u00a0 \u00a0His overall 2019 numbers weren’t great; I wonder if he’s thrown into a general “RH middle reliever” competition in Spring Training 2020 and then either makes the team or gets DFA’d again.\u00a0 He can’t be outrighted again, so he’d have to choose whether to stay with the org.<\/li>\n
  2. Strickland, Hunter<\/strong>: seems like a guarantee to make the 2020 roster, irregardless of his option status.<\/li>\n
  3. Taylor, Michael<\/strong>: you have to think his time has some to an end with this team.\u00a0 Optioned to AA despite being on a $3.25M contract; they can’t possibly tender him for 2020 can they?\u00a0 \u00a0Hit kind of an empty .250 this year (1 homer in 53 games\/97 PAs), and is arbitration eligible so he’ll “earn” an increase in pay.\u00a0 But he played really well in the post-season, hitting two homers while covering for an injured\u00a0Victor Robles<\/strong>.\u00a0 Do you tender him and pay him $4M to be a 4th outfielder?\u00a0 He’s undoubtedly solid defensively.\u00a0 But he offers little to no value as a PH.\u00a0 Do you save $4M and use\u00a0Andrew Stevenson<\/strong> as a 4th OF instead?<\/li>\n
  4. Elias, Roenis<\/strong>: another guy like Strickland who wasn’t acquired to get cut.\u00a0 He’s on the 2020 roster … and oh,\u00a0Davey Martinez<\/strong>?\u00a0 Don’t f*cking let him hit this year.<\/li>\n
  5. Ross, Joe<\/strong>: Well, the 2020 Nats need a 5th starter right now (and, technically also need a 2nd starter if they don’t resign\u00a0Stephen Strasburg<\/strong>).\u00a0 Is Ross the leading candidate right now?\u00a0 I think so: in 6 starts last year after the team finally figured out that he couldn’t be a reliever he was competent: 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA but a 1.455 whip that probably made his FIP look awful.\u00a0 Is that 5th starter material?\u00a0 \u00a0I’ve always thought so … but now he has competition, mainly from two guys on this list.\u00a0 If he doesn’t make the rotation, I don’t know what you do with him.\u00a0 Clearly he can’t be a reliever; and if he is facing an options crunch DFA … nobody’s going to trade for him.\u00a0 They’ll just wait for him to declare FA and pounce.<\/li>\n
  6. Difo, Wilmer<\/strong>: everybody needs a utility guy who can play SS in a pinch; is Difo that guy for us?\u00a0 He has been, traditionally, for years now.\u00a0 But without options he’s gotta earn his spot.\u00a0 There’s a slew of guys out there who can do what he’s done: play competent middle infield and hit above the Mendoza line.\u00a0 I’m guessing, like Guerra above him, he’ll face competition from NRI veterans and Sanchez (see below) who do the same thing he does and if he makes the team so be it, otherwise he faces the DFA deadline come 4\/1\/20.<\/li>\n
  7. Fedde, Erick<\/strong>: this one is tough.\u00a0 Like Ross, he was called into reliever duty in 2019 and was not great at it.\u00a0 And he was in the rotation for a bit, with weaker numbers than Ross.\u00a0 Fedde now has 26 starts across three seasons with ERAs and FIPs north of 5.00.\u00a0 I know he has his defenders … and maybe you could argue that his relief numbers in 2019 weren’t as bad (he did have just a 1.132 FIP in 9 relief innings), but the clock has run out.\u00a0 What do you do here?\u00a0 I’m guessing he competes with Ross and Voth for the 5th starter (again, going under the assumption we re-sign Strasburg) and if he doesn’t make it he becomes the long-man in the pen and begins life as a reliever.<\/li>\n
  8. Sanchez, Adrian<\/strong> posted just an OPS+ figure of 23 for 2019.\u00a0 In 32 ABs he did not have one extra base hit.\u00a0 I’m guessing, like Difo, he’s in ST2020 competition and gets DFA’d on 4\/1\/20.<\/li>\n
  9. Voth, Austin<\/strong>: he’s got the least service time of any of the three starters he seems likely to compete with for the 5th starter job, but easily out-performed both of them in his 2019 starts.\u00a0 8 starts, 3.30 ERA, 1.053 whip; he got it done this year.\u00a0 I think Voth has the inside track on the 5th starter job right now over both Ross and Fedde, which puts both of them at a disadvantage.<\/li>\n
  10. Read, Raudy<\/strong>; He’s got the least amount of service time here (just 63 days) and seems the least likely to make the opening day roster (i’d have to think the team is investing in a veteran FA catcher).\u00a0 I’ve got Read ahead of\u00a0Taylor Gushue<\/strong> on the Catcher depth chart; they both hit well in AAA this year with the PCL parks and the inflated ball, but Read has also shown a solid bat all the way up the chain.\u00a0 Is that enough to get him onto the opening day roster?\u00a0 I don’t think so; i just don’t think he’s got enough experience to merit a 2x\/week backup catcher role to a starter in\u00a0Kurt Suzuki<\/strong> who’s on the wrong side of 35 and will miss time.\u00a0 I sense Read comes to ST, helps out with the catching load, sticks around just in case there’s an injury, then hits the DFA trail.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Summary of what I think eventually happens to all 10 guys in one (or two) words:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Guerra, Javy<\/strong>:\u00a0DFA’d<\/li>\n
    2. Strickland, Hunter<\/strong>: 2020 bullpen<\/li>\n
    3. Taylor, Michael<\/strong>: Non-tendered<\/li>\n
    4. Elias, Roenis<\/strong>: 2020 bullpen<\/li>\n
    5. Ross, Joe<\/strong>:\u00a0DFA’d<\/li>\n
    6. Difo, Wilmer<\/strong>:\u00a02020 bench<\/li>\n
    7. Fedde, Erick<\/strong>: 2020 bullpen<\/li>\n
    8. Sanchez, Adrian<\/strong>\u00a0DFA’d<\/li>\n
    9. Voth, Austin<\/strong>:\u00a05th starter<\/li>\n
    10. Read, Raudy<\/strong>;\u00a0DFA’d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      I mean no offense to any of these players of course; its just that options crunches force teams into tough decisions.\u00a0 But I see half these guys getting shed at some point.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      We’ve alluded to this point in multiple comments under past comments, but its time to put pencil to paper. Right now (ahead of any FA signings), the Nats 40-man roster sits at 31 players, with\u00a0Ben Braymer having been added to avoid Rule-5 exposure yesterday … and one third of those players are out of options […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[916,3684,2814,2469,1815,3333,3186,4277,2425,3568,4297,2691,1033,708,2760,2583,38,3683,1016,2426,2757,2650],"class_list":["post-16302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-aaron-barrett","tag-adrian-sanchez","tag-andrew-stevenson","tag-austen-williams","tag-austin-voth","tag-ben-braymer","tag-carter-kieboom","tag-davey-martinez","tag-erick-fedde","tag-hunter-strickland","tag-javy-guerra","tag-joe-ross","tag-kurt-suzuki","tag-michael-taylor","tag-raudy-read","tag-roenis-elias","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-taylor-gushue","tag-todd-boss","tag-trea-turner","tag-victor-robles","tag-wilmer-difo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16302"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16331,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16302\/revisions\/16331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}