{"id":16332,"date":"2019-11-25T13:40:47","date_gmt":"2019-11-25T18:40:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16332"},"modified":"2019-11-25T13:58:12","modified_gmt":"2019-11-25T18:58:12","slug":"nats-2020-payroll-projections-how-much-do-we-have-to-spend-this-off-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=16332","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2020 Payroll Projections: how much do we have to spend this off-season?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The final piece of the pre-2020 off-season analysis is payroll (well, except for non-tender analysis, which is just a few million one way or the other this year).<\/p>\n

All the player\/club options were already exercised, we’ve done rule-5, and we’ve done options analysis.<\/p>\n

As we stand right now; we have 31 players on the 40 man roster and a whole slew of “holes” in the roster to fill.\u00a0 Well, lets talk about how much money we have to spend by first starting with what we likely already have on the books for 2020.\u00a0 \u00a0Lets review by player category.<\/p>\n

NOTE: the following tables do have “luxury tax” dollars and “real dollars,” but honestly i’m not sure why anyone cares about the real dollars being spent when the team is clearly attempting to stay under the luxury tax.\u00a0 so, for my purposes I really only look at\/care about the luxury tax dollars.<\/p>\n

Under Contract for 2020 – 6 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Player<\/th>2020 25-man prediction?<\/th>Current or 2019 Contract<\/th>2020 Lux Tax<\/th>2020 Real dollars<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Scherzer, Max<\/td>x<\/td>7yr\/$210M (15-21), half deferred<\/td>28689376<\/td>35920616<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Corbin, Patrick<\/td>x<\/td>6yrs\/$140M<\/td>23333333<\/td>19416667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Eaton, Adam<\/td>x<\/td>5 years\/$23.5M (2015-19), options<\/td>9500000<\/td>9500000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sanchez, Anibal<\/td>x<\/td>2yr\/$19M with 2021 option<\/td>9000000<\/td>9000000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Doolittle, Sean<\/td>x<\/td>5ry\/$10.5M plus options<\/td>6500000<\/td>6500000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Suzuki, Kurt<\/td>x<\/td>2yr\/$10M<\/td>5000000<\/td>6000000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

Total of\u00a0 $82,022,709<\/strong> for these 6 players.\u00a0 As we sign FAs, they’ll get added to this section.<\/p>\n

Arbitration Eligible Players for 2020 – 9 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Player<\/th>2020 25-man prediction?<\/th>Current or 2019 Contract<\/th>My Guess<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Turner, Trea<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$3.725M (2019)<\/td>8000000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Taylor, Michael<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$3.25M (2019)<\/td>4500000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Strickland, Hunter<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$1.3M (2019)<\/td>2500000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Elias, Roenis<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$910,000 (2019)<\/td>1300000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Guerra, Javy<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$800,000 (2019)<\/td>1200000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Difo, Wilmer<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$581,100 (2019)<\/td>800000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ross, Joe<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$1M (2019)<\/td>1400000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Glover, Koda<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$564,300 (2019)<\/td>750000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Barrett, Aaron<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/minor league<\/td>750000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

Total of\u00a0 $21,200,000<\/strong> for all 9 players, assuming that we tender all 9 and that my estimates are close.\u00a0 Cot’s total estimate for our 9 arb players is\u00a0 $19,750,000 while MLBtraderumors is\u00a0 $19,950,000; i’m a bit heavy on my estimates, mostly with what\u00a0Michael A Taylor<\/strong> would fetch in arbitration.<\/p>\n

We’ll do a non-tender post later on, but suffice it to say that between options crunches and 2019 performance of some of these players, we may “save” a few million in projected payroll here.<\/p>\n

Pre Arbitration MLB players for 2020 – 16<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Player<\/th>2020 25-man prediction?<\/th>Current or 2019 Contract<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Fedde, Erick<\/td>x<\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Suero, Wander<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$562,500 (2019)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Williams, Austen<\/td><\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Soto, Juan<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$578,300 (2019)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Robles, Victor<\/td>x<\/td>1 year\/$557,800 (2019)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sanchez, Adrian<\/td>x<\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Voth, Austin<\/td>x<\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
McGowin, Dustin<\/td><\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Read, Raudy<\/td>x<\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stevenson, Andrew<\/td><\/td>1 year\/$559,100 (2019)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bourque, James<\/td>x<\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rainey, Tanner<\/td>x<\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Noll, Jake<\/td><\/td>1 year\/$555,000 (2019)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Barrera, Tres<\/td><\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kieboom, Carter<\/td>x<\/td>1yr Minor League deal (19)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Braymer, Ben<\/td><\/td>1yr Minor League Deal (20)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

More than half the existing 40-man roster are pre-arb.\u00a0 Instead of trying to guess what salary they’ll get assigned, we assume that the 11 pre-arb players required to fill out a 26-man each earn $580k, for a total of\u00a0 $6,380,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Non-active roster 40-man players – 14<\/strong><\/p>\n

At some point we’ll assume we’ll have a full 40-man roster, with the remaining 14 players each estimated at $150k.\u00a0 14*150k = $2,100,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

then, we have to add in a benefits estimate of $15,000,000<\/strong> for the team.<\/p>\n

that gives us a grand total current payroll estimate for 2020 of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
82022709<\/th><-- under contract<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
21200000<\/td><-- arb <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6380000<\/td><-- pre arb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2100000<\/td><-- 40-man<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15000000<\/td><-- benefits<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
126702709<\/td><-- total payroll estimate right now<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
208000000<\/td><-- Luxury tax cap for 2020<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
81297291<\/td><-- room under cap right now<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

So we’re right around $126M in committed dollars right now, and we have about $81M to play with in the FA market.<\/p>\n

Coincidentally i’m not the only one doing this analysis: i’m roughly $855k off from Cots’ estimates and pretty close to other Nats bloggers doing the same.<\/p>\n

plenty of room to give\u00a0Strasburg<\/strong> and\u00a0Rendon<\/strong> $35M each!\u00a0 (just kidding; probably only really possible to get one or the other and still handle all our other needs).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The final piece of the pre-2020 off-season analysis is payroll (well, except for non-tender analysis, which is just a few million one way or the other this year). All the player\/club options were already exercised, we’ve done rule-5, and we’ve done options analysis. As we stand right now; we have 31 players on the 40 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[185,38,1016],"class_list":["post-16332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-natsgeneral","tag-anthony-rendon","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-todd-boss"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16332"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16332\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16370,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16332\/revisions\/16370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}